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Job growth and economic improvement are for REAL

RobertBrusca's picture




 

Just a few thoughts and facts before the employment report for March is out. No time like just before the report to issue some thoughts so that the next day you can be shown to be horribly wrong, but here it goes.

I see on ZH a lot of antipathy for government data especially on jobs. Interestingly this week a number NON GOVERNMENT reports have been very up-beat

The ADP, a well-known private sector report based on a blown up sample from actual data from a payroll-services company continues to pour out evidence of over 200K jobs per month being created.

Private sector source…

The Challenger Gray and Christmas issue a report that looks at firms’ announced corporate layoffs from notices (medium-sized and larger) firms are required to post each month. The report for March shows us the 16th lowest announced corporate layoffs in March among the last 19 Marches. Since data are NOT seasonally adjusted (some of you will like this report even more because of that) this is an objective way to assess its strength/weakness. This lay off indicator is low.

Private sector source…

A Bloomberg Survey on consumer comfort has just shot up this week to show a one week increase in ‘consumer comfort’ with a jump so large that it occurs less than 6% of the time. In this weekly series going back to 1986 the 17-week change in the Bloomberg index has been surpassed only three other times (all of these were the product of the same 1998 episode). This is a twice in a 25-yeear experience.

Private sector source…

So put it together and SOMETHING is happening.

For those who belong to that shadowy group ‘weather-o-nomics’, yes weather has had an impact on data but it has had pluses and minuses- try talking to someone who runs a ski resort or a winter lodge business. I think the weather thing is overplayed for its impact.

On balance the big problem we do not seem to ever to be able to agree on is unemployment and this fine. We can all have our own favorite measure. Just be sure to plot it back in time and to compare today’s figures with the same definition and its higher numbers at all points in the past.

Everything is relative here.

I am encouraged that the ADP shows that private small services businesses have brought their employment levels back up to where they were Pre-Recession. Some small businesses are making great strides; some are not..

Of course the goods sector is challenged. Despite some good-looking recent MFG reports recently, the fact is that although the calendar year of 2011 was the first year in a decade in which MFG gained jobs the sector is lagging woefully behind in creating jobs in this recovery cycle.

The job market is a hodge-podge and it is not in good shape but it is improving. The improvement is quite good compared to what had been in train, previously. There is a long way to go. But let’s recognize progress without being satisfied by it.

And we’ll see if the ‘official report’ reflects that progress tomorrow. I expect it will. Also note that two government surveys one of firms’ payrolls and the other from the more inclusive household survey are showing job growth that is in step with the private sector ADP report.

Stay tuned for a 240K sort of gain in Private jobs for March.

Remember do not ever forecast a job number unless you are prepared to be wrong. There is nothing that breeds humility like making a forecast.

Well posting comments on ZH…and reading the blow-back is right up there.

Good luck any of you market junkies that bet on this number.

 

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Tue, 04/17/2012 - 13:43 | 2352086 Blue Horshoe Lo...
Blue Horshoe Loves Annacott Steel's picture

 

I can reproduce this article fast:

Bla bla bla things are getting better bla bla bla.

Quicker, to the point, & with more useful information and facts to back up my point!

 

Tue, 04/17/2012 - 13:44 | 2352003 Blue Horshoe Lo...
Blue Horshoe Loves Annacott Steel's picture

 

I had to delete & vote down my own comment.

 

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 11:29 | 2324427 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

Mr. Brusca,

+1 for posting on your thread. Your responses and sentiment remind me of a sun-god-worshipping Greek I knew long, long ago...

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 17:04 | 2322405 piceridu
piceridu's picture

I wonder if Bobby has ever held a real job. I'm betting that he has never experienced delivering papers from his Schwinn. Bobby lives in an Ambien induced dream world.  It's a world where the entire population are either academics, online poker players or maybe where half the population wins the lottery each week. His world has no tractors, welders, or ship builders. There aren't any producers of goods. He wakes up each and every morning as a rainbow appears at his front door and there sits an unicorn offering a dozen fresh bagels neatly stacked over his hornand the unicorn serves him a piping hot cappucino right from it's freshly waxed ass...someone please pinch Mr. Brusca.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:08 | 2322319 Walt D.
Walt D.'s picture

So we are getting 350,000 new jobs claims every week and only 120,000 new jobs every month. Something does not add up here. Also, the economy needs to create 200,000 jobs a month just to keep up with the increase in the population. Wait till the summer. Where are the new high schoo and college graduates going to find jobs? I suggest they check here and practise flipping burgers.

http://www.amazon.com/OXO-Good-Grips-Fish-Turner/dp/B000YDO2MK/ref=sr_1_...

 

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:45 | 2322410 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Seriously? Every time I visit a fast food joint in the US, it is staffed by older immigrants ... Do HS kids in the US really still work?

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:50 | 2322291 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

There's basically NOTHING HAPPENING with jobs.  We're treading water at best.  But I do agree everything's relative, and the jobs picture is better now that it was during the last year of GWB and the first year of Obama.  Our monetary "policies" are not directed at employment, they are directed at helping banks and TPTB, which is why the only thing that Bernanke can say with certainty is he doesn't see much of an improvement in unemployment in the forseeable future.  Believe government employment and inflation data at your own risk, especially during an election year.

 

 

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:45 | 2322272 dataanalytics
dataanalytics's picture

This shill never ceases to amaze eh?

U3 is now over 12% and this so-called 'economist' is making claims of an improved labor market! man, all the Barry-O minions are ramping up the propaganda as we wind down towards November.

Gee Bobby you were only OFF by 50%! Not bad for a professional shill!

"Stay tuned for a 240K sort of gain in Private jobs for March."

Yea, I'm, tuned in 'Johnny-Improved Economy' but all I see is alot of fuzz and squiggly lines...oh wait, that's the BLS performing it's monthly manipulation...oh, okay all is well then. Stay calm. : P

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:16 | 2322337 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And still with all the rosey spin and propaganda and DOW at 13,000, The Messiah ObaMao still only manages a 40% approval, overall approval of govt in single digits....something tells me theyre going to switch course soon.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:47 | 2322271 dataanalytics
dataanalytics's picture

.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:16 | 2322193 spooz
spooz's picture

But, but, unemployment is DOWN!!! because, doncha know, the work force is SHRINKING!!! Yeah, thats it, everybody is retiring so its all good!!!

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:12 | 2322181 Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

Yeah, that 1.5 mile stretch in a large metropolitan city to the freeway had someone begging on every corner right up to the freeway.  I have NEVER seen that before.... yeah its getting better /sarc off. 

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:42 | 2322397 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

The road from the German border to the Czech Republic town of Teplice has a hooker every 200 meters or so ... Much more economically productive. Instead of a one-time unlocking of trapped wealth stored in collectibles, you have the repeated unleashing of human capital.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:10 | 2322177 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Roberts 'real economic recovery' can be summed up here once again using South Park....enjoy those sign spinning jobs at Cash for Gold ripoff joints America!

South Park - Cash For Gold - YouTube

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:00 | 2322147 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Robert - you are a clown on acid !

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 10:56 | 2322121 tgatliff
tgatliff's picture

Yahhh..  GOOD TIMES ARE HERE AGAIN!!!!   YIPPY!!

However, all of the manipulated data means nothing when the macro economy is in the middle of a structural decline.  No amount of data manipulation can hide the fact that 1/3 of the population is moving into retirement and actively deleveraging with the only real replacement leverage being student loans which are currently 24% in default.  Add to that, a largely unregulated financial derivatives market of $700 Trillion which is unwinding rapidly, as well as all post industrial governments having > 100% GDP to public (and private) debt ratios means that a collapse in the financial work is pretty much inevitable.   Oh, and dont forget that the central banks have already started monetization (aka QE), which history is clear that monetization always leads to more monetization and then collapse of the currency.   

But yes... Other than the above... Things are GREAT!!!  BOOOYAA!!!  Time to buy more of those worthless (and devaluing rapidlyl) stocks!!

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 10:42 | 2322087 Solarman
Solarman's picture

Bob is nowhere to be found, strange.  Bob you are a walking narrative for the mainstream media, you are not an economist.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 10:34 | 2322058 Bruce Krasting
Bruce Krasting's picture

Big miss by Bob. But is it?? There are 130m people working, Bob missed the monthly number by 100k, that comes to 0.077%. That is not even a rounding number.

It kills me that me markets react so much to these monthly numbers. I don't think they are accurate +/- 5%.

I have been burned betting on hunches with the NFP. I don't even try anymore.The numbers are rigged, so it's a fools game to bet on them.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:04 | 2322158 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well Bruce, thats what you get when 'the markets' have been reduced to simply begging for more free money crack from the Central Banksters. 

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 10:26 | 2322021 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

ADP should publish more than the # of jobs created but jobs created and jobs lost along with the income attached to each. Are we creating good jobs? or are we creating "bad jobs"? From what I see, we are losing good jobs and creating ones that put the worker at financial risk. Therefore, we are going to continue to see more foreclosures and no housing recovery and reduced tax receipts.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 10:37 | 2322063 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

Million Dollar Bonus = Bob Brusca

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 10:10 | 2321968 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

well, you were only off by 50%, better than LIESman

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 10:09 | 2321962 Bold Eagle
Bold Eagle's picture

Bob, REAL economic improvement is not possible until we revert back to REAL market and REAL money.

P.S. Special thanks to Tyler for keeping this article on the front page :)

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 10:26 | 2322014 HarryM
HarryM's picture

I love the "Cover Your Ass Waiver" at the end of the article - LOL

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 10:03 | 2321947 Mark Noonan
Mark Noonan's picture

The only thing which will get us out of this mess is wealth creation - you create wealth by making, mining and growing things.  Period.  If what you do does not, at the end of the day, produce an ear of corn, a ton of iron ore or a screwdriver, then whatever else you did during the day, wealth-creation wasn't it.  This is not to say that there is no worth in non-wealth creating activities, but for the economy to grow, new wealth creation is the only way to do it.  So, don't try to impress me with an ADP report on alleged jobs growth...what I want to know is:  in March of 2012, did we produce more, or less, steel than we did in March of 2011?  March of 2010?  How about March of 2002? March of 1972?

When someone can show me that more food was produced, more products of mines, more products of factories, than were produced at some past date, then I will agree that there has been growth - because if we are making, mining or growing more of something than we did before, then we have created new wealth.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 13:54 | 2322650 _underscore
_underscore's picture

Yep. That's about the only bottom line worth looking at. We (the decaying, indebted West) can now, apparently, make a living by fixing each others' hair & selling each other financial growth products. Or, as ascribed to Mark Twain ,  '[the poor]..make a precarious living taking in each other's washing..'

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 10:15 | 2321976 Bold Eagle
Bold Eagle's picture

It all comes back to the trade deficit. If a country continuously runs a trade deficit and does not create wealth, it will eventually be bankrupt.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:15 | 2322185 Strike Back
Strike Back's picture

It's so simple but SO DIFFICULT!  

Also, important:

Person's not in the labor force (ugly)

People on food stamps i.e. real measure of poverty (ugly)

Federal tax receipts (ugly)

Treasury demand (ugly)

Price of gold (fucking beautiful).

Central bank gold ownership (this is the tell, you dumbasses).

Unimportant:

Monthly fudged "employment" numbers counting the number of burger flippers and Wal Mart greeters.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 10:03 | 2321946 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Open mouth & insert foot LOL

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 10:02 | 2321944 Lee Adler- The ...
Lee Adler- The Wall Street Examiner's picture

OK, I wasn't exactly right, but I had the gist.   

Also posted here on ZH. 

 

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 10:00 | 2321942 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Hello, what part of Hope and Change did you people miss?

People who don't "hope" are negative nellies, things are getting better! See the numbers!? Now stop it with the bad comments.

And all this "change" is good! Just a few more years and we'll have all that mess that the idiot George Bush left us all cleaned up!

Honestly, I don't say shit to certain friends 'cause they are thinking we are heading out of this hole.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 09:57 | 2321933 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

 oops ... 120,000 vs. the 240,000 predicted

anyhow, as other commentators have mentioned, it's all moot.

War and totalitarianism, financial fraud and economic collapse, man-made pollution and disease

it all seems unavoidable now,

though in most bitter irony all so avoidable.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:22 | 2322209 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep, bad data and missed expectations are all 'moot' anyway....however if it had been 240,000 this morning Robert would be here with rainbows and unicorns shooting out of his vagina along with all CNBC anchors.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 10:29 | 2322033 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

officially the total number reported employed Feb-March increased 728,000, though seasonally adjusted it was minus 31,000

http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

 

 

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 10:00 | 2321940 therearetoomany...
therearetoomanyidiots's picture

dont' forget totalitariam rule in the US...

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 09:59 | 2321927 therearetoomany...
therearetoomanyidiots's picture

When numbers are at all-time or say, in the past 40 year LOWS, and you get a small uptick, that uptick is about as small as can be, IF it's real. 

Assuming it's real, you've just put one of those little dot band-aids on a severed limb. 

 

Oh, and by the way, if there is an uptick that is real, it is only temporary or part-time low wage positions.  Forget benefits.   I've noticed everywhere around here (SW Florida) jobs are at restaurants, malls, that's about it. 

 

 

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 09:53 | 2321919 Snakeeyes
Fri, 04/06/2012 - 09:55 | 2321926 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Hey Robert! you are an idiot! How about those employment figures this morninglol!

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 09:48 | 2321905 Inspector Bird
Inspector Bird's picture

Seriously? 

Look, a friend of mine in the head-hunting business admits there has been "an uptick".  So I won't deny there is an improvement.  But he was very clear - it's not a huge improvement, and it doesn't look sustainable.  Why?  Because while they are receiving more job opportunities, they are receiving twice as many resumes.

 

It's funny that people like you would write a feel-good piece about something you know just enough about to seem like you know something.  Well, I know more, and here's why.  Not only have I got a degree in Econometrics, but I've been unemployed 3 times in the last 10 years, most recently just a year ago.  I spend time scouring boards and classifieds for jobs.  Jobs that were plentiful 5 years ago are now scarce.

More importantly, and this is very, very key, the jobs available are at lower salaries and often at start-ups offering "stock".  Sorry - been there, done that too many times.  I'll take a salary, thank you, and one commensurate with my experience.

That doesn't mean I want $250k.  Which is what I could command 3 years ago.  No, I'm a realist, I've lowered my salary to compete with 30 year olds with less experience and fewer contacts.  Still - I can't find jobs which will pull me from the one I'm currently at.  It's not a bad job, it's an excellent company.  But I'm underutilized and I know I can do more and earn more.

 

Sorry, I'm not buying your story.  It just doesn't make any sense to anyone who is in the job market - or has dropped out of the job market (and there are more of those now, too!!)

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 09:47 | 2321903 digitlman
digitlman's picture

+120K

 

Well played.

 

Jackass.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 09:44 | 2321896 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

my 4YO typing on his computer would be more helpful reading than your past months blog threads

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 09:43 | 2321895 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Bob: In the REAL world, there ARE few jobs to be had.

ANYONE that relies on government fudged numbers on ANYTHING is a complete moron.

Explain away all you want. I prefer to keep my head out of the sand and away from the fog.

I see nothing but lay offs, private businesses closing, and people struggling all over. I see few new jobs (of any salient value), little pockets of "growth", and NOTHING but lies and deceit from government. Both sides of the aisle.

I only have respect for people such as Ron and Rand Paul; two that are marginalized, criticized, and ignored.

Explains a lot as to how this country's people have been lobotomized en mass by the MSM.

I stopped listening to Schnitt, Rush, Beck, and their ilk years ago in earnest. I only tune in to see if they've found their balls that are long-missing. Nope across the board. Shills, corporate lackeys, and idiots - the lot of them.

You see a glass half full. I see a glass being fooled that it even has liquid in it.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 09:18 | 2321815 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Bob, you are either a paid government shill, or delusional.

In either case, your articles are on my permanent ignore list, joining Nadler's articles,

the only other articles on my DO NOT READ list...

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 09:12 | 2321795 fuu
fuu's picture

"Stay tuned for a 240K sort of gain in Private jobs for March."

WRONG AGAIN BOB!

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 22:47 | 2321208 Maos Dog
Maos Dog's picture

I am not going to counter any of the arguments, other posters have covered all of the basics.

I am even willing to concede, just for sake of argument. all of the points made in the article.

The fact is that it's it's all a moot point, I am looking out of the "front windshield" and see the massive brick wall of 4.00+ gas ahead, and it's going to crush all of the current numbers; confort index, confidence, employment, etc, in a quarter or two at most.

The next recession is absolutely certain and there's no way to print out of it, unless Ben can print up some oil. 

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 22:11 | 2321155 alexwest
alexwest's picture

x

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 22:06 | 2321152 Benjamin Glutton
Benjamin Glutton's picture

We are counting prison jobs too?

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 21:39 | 2321092 TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

What is so amazing about the pundits pointing to recovery, recovery to what? A new housing boom? Another dotcom boom? Oh, another military boom, start a few more wars. What is going to drive this boom? Wasn't it green technology? I invented the worlds first zero solvent wood stain, South Coast Air Board thinks I walk on water, no one fucking cares, and good for them, I don't like Government mandates, but talk to me about the "green building boom" and I will spit in your face! The "green building boom" must be the next Mexican day worker who has his first day taking a licensed contractors job, I guess you can call him "green" since is new, cheap and undocumented. Mexicans and millionaires, that's where California is! Recovery, STFU!

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:28 | 2322368 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

next boom?   watching GRPN go boom!

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 21:35 | 2321084 GCT
GCT's picture

I think ZH should indeed allow different points of view.  We all cannot agree with every post here.  Robert is blogging about the numbers he uses to justfiy his blog.  If we used his sources his view is correct.  Junk me all you like.  This does not mean I agree with them.  I think the largest point alot of people here are missing is this site is about freedom.  So are we going to now act like those alot of people oppose and not allow someone to post because we disagree with his blog.  If you think that is the way it should be then you or I are no better then those you supposedly oppose.  Freedom in my small mind anyway is allowing Robert to post his views.  The commentators here agree, disagree or discuss them and we learn from everyone.  You all are brutal and alot of you are alot smarter then I and that is the reason I come here it to learn. 

I happen to agree with bilderman and alot of other bloggers on the internet, but there is no reason when ZH's charter is all about freedom to not allow a blogger to post contrary views.  I would like to see what you robert think about Bilderman's views with reasons whys his view is wrong.  To e honest during an election year most of the governments numbers will be fudged to make the incumbent look good.  Do you have any views on this Robert? Historically we know this has happened so what makes this election any different?

I hope I am not offending some of you but there are times your view of the world will be questioned. If I wanted one sided blogs I can go to huffington post or the red state. 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!