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Job growth and economic improvement are for REAL
Just a few thoughts and facts before the employment report for March is out. No time like just before the report to issue some thoughts so that the next day you can be shown to be horribly wrong, but here it goes.
I see on ZH a lot of antipathy for government data especially on jobs. Interestingly this week a number NON GOVERNMENT reports have been very up-beat
The ADP, a well-known private sector report based on a blown up sample from actual data from a payroll-services company continues to pour out evidence of over 200K jobs per month being created.
Private sector source…
The Challenger Gray and Christmas issue a report that looks at firms’ announced corporate layoffs from notices (medium-sized and larger) firms are required to post each month. The report for March shows us the 16th lowest announced corporate layoffs in March among the last 19 Marches. Since data are NOT seasonally adjusted (some of you will like this report even more because of that) this is an objective way to assess its strength/weakness. This lay off indicator is low.
Private sector source…
A Bloomberg Survey on consumer comfort has just shot up this week to show a one week increase in ‘consumer comfort’ with a jump so large that it occurs less than 6% of the time. In this weekly series going back to 1986 the 17-week change in the Bloomberg index has been surpassed only three other times (all of these were the product of the same 1998 episode). This is a twice in a 25-yeear experience.
Private sector source…
So put it together and SOMETHING is happening.
For those who belong to that shadowy group ‘weather-o-nomics’, yes weather has had an impact on data but it has had pluses and minuses- try talking to someone who runs a ski resort or a winter lodge business. I think the weather thing is overplayed for its impact.
On balance the big problem we do not seem to ever to be able to agree on is unemployment and this fine. We can all have our own favorite measure. Just be sure to plot it back in time and to compare today’s figures with the same definition and its higher numbers at all points in the past.
Everything is relative here.
I am encouraged that the ADP shows that private small services businesses have brought their employment levels back up to where they were Pre-Recession. Some small businesses are making great strides; some are not..
Of course the goods sector is challenged. Despite some good-looking recent MFG reports recently, the fact is that although the calendar year of 2011 was the first year in a decade in which MFG gained jobs the sector is lagging woefully behind in creating jobs in this recovery cycle.
The job market is a hodge-podge and it is not in good shape but it is improving. The improvement is quite good compared to what had been in train, previously. There is a long way to go. But let’s recognize progress without being satisfied by it.
And we’ll see if the ‘official report’ reflects that progress tomorrow. I expect it will. Also note that two government surveys one of firms’ payrolls and the other from the more inclusive household survey are showing job growth that is in step with the private sector ADP report.
Stay tuned for a 240K sort of gain in Private jobs for March.
Remember do not ever forecast a job number unless you are prepared to be wrong. There is nothing that breeds humility like making a forecast.
Well posting comments on ZH…and reading the blow-back is right up there.
Good luck any of you market junkies that bet on this number.
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those foreclosures are going to be b.tch for things like wireless subscriptions and i-junk purchases once these people have to actually start paying rent, because rent evictions work much more quickly than the foreclosure process. people will actually have to start paying bills and dump 'disposable' income spent on 'disposable' junk
Walkure you may have something there. I think the big jobs growth is in movers, debt collectors, warrant servers, auction houses, pawn shops, and repossessors.
NO I reported three honest private sector indicators. They are rising.
Who is spinning what here?
Not I...
What are your thoughts on Biderman's income tax collections showing less job growth than BLS?
~200k in 2 months (Jan)
vs
~80k for Jan based on income tax collections.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/trimtabs-explains-why-todays-very-very-suspicious-nfp-number-really-down-29-million-past-2-mont
Where are the LEI heading?
Hey Brusca, are you vying to become another mouthpiece for the all-time SCUMBAG Bernanke ?
Or do you have some stocks to unload and you're hoping to find some greater fools to sell to ?
Neither- just the facts verifiable
No spin
"Facts" By this you mean, a source was given.
You accept the method, the data, and the conclusion. Sucks to be you !
Go Brusca...don't take any crap from these wankers! They are dead bears!!
It could be because it is tax time. I know I got a huge refund of money that I had never paid in! Perhaps others did too and spent it. This kind of growth is unsustainable though.
The 'offocial report' will show whether the FED wants its 'crisis' that Bernank was jawboning about, or whether theyre just going to coast because commodities are screwing with Obamas precious little re-election nonsense. All just about more money printing or not, jobs report is not about jobs its just another propaganda tool.
Thats all the report will mean, because its all just made-up BS to begin with.
ZH should have a 3 strikes and you're out rule.
Brusca, you'reeeee outttta hereeee.
Don't know about that, ZH should be a forum for contrary views.
Plus sometimes it gets pretty funny. I still miss Leo Kolivakis, and MadHedgeFundTrader talking about his lunches with the chief of the CIA and every other ruling goon of the American empire.
Now, when I see a Brusca column, I jump and look, just to get a laugh from all the snarky comments.
My issue with Brusca is not that he says some really wrong-seeming things, but he does not seem deep enough in backing up his ideas, he is too conventional.
Like using ADP as his 'source', it's too establishment, too much a part of the Powers That Be. Can't be taken at face value without further elaboration and confirmation.
But that's where we are in this modern world, people arguing so-called 'facts' that might be some totally bogus sh*t from the CIA's Wikipedia project.
Agreed, I do think this place benefits from some of the blue skies and sunshine types putting up opinions. Its a shame some of the others you mention are no longer around, if somebody has the guts to put up things that are way outside the standard (and well justified in my personal view) deep cynicism that is the norm here and defend it, good for them. There are some pretty sharp skeptics here, if a writer with a different view is willing to show up and walk into a Fight Club pit and yell "Bring it doomers, everything is looking up"!- well, thats only a good thing and sometimes funny too.
Even in a worst case scenario if they have nothing to add its good practice for some verbal head and crotch kicks. He seems to have a sense of humor about the verbal abuse at least.
+1 Bank guy, it's good to see the workings of the muppet minds.
I have to admit I feel really sorry about Leo though. He seemed like a decent sort.
It is not "decency" to give credance to a lie.
I miss AKAK commenting on Leo's posts.
@ bank guy,
thanks for reminding me of Leo Kolivakis, I was desperately trying to remember his name, I can relax now ;O)
Yes, let's see how his theories hold up when he starts using John Williams Shadowstats figures as the basis for his claims.
Umm, I'm thinking . . . not so much.
Uhhhhhhhhhh......ok. Well the growth in BS spreading in undeniable.
Just show me proof of real jobs gained, with actual pay....Im sick of some govt released numbers without any bit of proof to back them up being the reality Im supposed to just blindly and mindlessly accept.
Its all BS, smokescreens to cover for the FED monetizing the debt, rumors of printing or not printing is all that matters.
Ok, so we have rebalancing where the jobs created are decreasing the Trade deficit, we are reviving manufacturing and starting to export to China, we have a declining level of trade deficit then right, and we shall see a declining government debt burden? Or are those jobs created due to consumption saving the US from over-consumption? So China is starting to invest less and consume more and the rebalancing is happening great. But if this job creation is connected with less savings, more consumption and more trade deficit, we are solving NOTHING, we are just trying to fool ourselves that a new credit expansion and more debt and more consumption is the solution to too much debt, too much credit expansion and too much consumption.
THe real solution is that the cost of credit is determined by free market agents. The cost of capital does not have to be decided by a central, the central bank decision on what should be interest rates is the root cause of boom and bust. Sure enough liquidity always creates some activity, but typically the wrong one. It would formidable to see absolutely no effect of liquidity, but when corporations are able to borrow below inflation it creates malinvestment, that is the definition of it. When trade deficit is reduced, Government share of economy is reduced, manufacturing jobs account for the bulk of the jobs, savings rate increase, corporation borrow at a real rate I will be back in Equities, in the meantime we will just marvel at the idea that liquidity is being used somewhat and confuse that with sound economics.
interesting opinions
Robert, as for the private jobs number we know you luv the blow-back
Four votes, four 1s.
First reader to vote article >1 is a rotten egg.
Robert, your 'Fact and Opinion' means jack shit.
sorry I don't know jack...
You are Jack's patellar reflex.
Clearly. http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/02/fewer-nonfarm-employe...
I knew someone would like that.
That was me baby.
But you really need to look at that link I posted.
Fair warning though, it basically lays out an ironclad case that you are out of your goddamned mind.
So, what you're saying then is... it will strengthen his resolve?
I ain't takin' the under on that bet unless you give me 10^10:1.
Old Jobs, $65 per hour; New "Jobs", $12 per hour if your lucky...oh and no Insurance
That's growth....please go away
one doesn't need insurance with 'obama care'. he cares a lot about people. (sarc).
i doubt he even cares much about people named michelle etc. but they are expediant to have around. (no sarc)
Actually in a post on ZH one of the contributors analyzed the adjusted social security receipt data and noted that it actually projected More job growth than what we have seen. I commented on that, noting that it might be that we are finally getting some higher paid jobs in the mix.
But you have a right to be cynical.
It's free country.
just ignore everything that does not fit your prejudice.
There seems to be a growing pool of stuff you want to push to the side.
Well now, you have a tendency to do the same. As noted by others here gasoline consumption has plummeted to half of what it was just a few years ago, another foreclosure wave is heading this way, a very large portion of GDP is nothing but deficit spending and financial sector gimmickry, food stamp use is moving ever higher, new jobs dont pay nearly what old ones did, etc. etc.
We are in a plane that lost an engine at 30,000 feet. After enough altitude loss speed will pick up again, this is certain- but nothing fundamental has changed. You are pointing to an uptick in airspeed as an indicator that we will regain altitude, and many here are pointing out that the core issue of the blown engine is still there, will not and cannot be fixed, and is ultimately going to lead to a continuing pattern of altitude loss, followed by speed recovery from that loss and eventual leveling which cannot be sustained, then another altitude loss and so on until we hit the ground.
Maybe you should take your own advice and quit ignoring the reality on the streets.
I don't know where you live, but the only jobs available around here are government jobs (not really a job), and low-pay service jobs.
Remember, you can't eat data.
Oh, and you cannot have a real recovery within this wholly broken monetary paradigm of fractional-reserve, debt-based "money." Instead, all you have is a wealth transfer mechanism that provides the appearance of a recovery.
My guess is that you're too close to the receiving end of the money flow to see that it is impoverishing the middle class.
So go ahead, ridicule others with worthless statistics while trying to understand just why we aren't as smart as you.
In conclusion, allow me to ridicule you for your lack at recognizing a ponzi scheme. Or should I say, "ignoring what doesn't fit your prejudices?"
my mom is looking at her IRA which i had her put in a 6 month cd. her bank is .70%. she researched and the bank down the street is .75%. 30k. the difference is $15 a year. mom - don't get out of bed for that. but they don't understand that. REAL inflation is what? bennie - thanks. it took centurys to figure out how to trickle every last penny up.
job well done. we're all finished.
But every here is saying they are sugar-coated so why can't you eat them?
Can you spare some of the Kool-Aid you're on? The Easter bunny is due this weekend.
I have worked at several companies over the years and maintain contact with peers at the manager and director levels. Not a single one is hiring, and the ones who are doing better are treading water. I deal with suppliers and customers, in the US and Europe. No one is hiring, and all of them are battening down the hatches for what promises to be a wild summer.
Okay, funny boy. You are officially an asshole now. Go away, please, and save yourself further embarrassment.
Well, ain't you funny.
Just why exactly, do you troll ZH? Here's a hint, most contributors don't call out their readers in their articles, as it is self-defeating when attempting to make a point.
Tell me, ignoring statistics for a moment, just what structural changes can you describe to support your "economic improvement is real" theory? Do you really think a world where CBs own everything can actually have the capacity to heal and improve?
Since the social security data was estimated, I'm not so sure it is a good predictor. Estimates based on optimistic assumptions sometimes don't work out too well.
you shall eat the offspring of your own body, the flesh of your sons and of your daughters...The man who is refined and very delicate among you shall be hostile toward his brother and toward the wife he cherishes and toward the rest of his children who remain, so that he will not give even one of them any of the flesh of his children which he will eat, since he has nothing else left...The refined and delicate woman among you, who would not venture to set the sole of her foot on the ground for delicateness and refinement, shall be hostile toward the husband she cherishes and toward her son and daughter, and toward her afterbirth which issues from between her legs and toward her children whom she bears; for she will eat them secretly for lack of anything else... -Moses
You're right, things can still get worse.
By the way, they really knew how to bring on the curse back in the day.
Placenta with....boxed merlot....mmmm yum
or are we having flesh of child tonight, I'd go with a nice pinot grigio with that..
But the point is that it could be worse.
Forget that right now it's really goddamned dismal, bad, shitty with no cream or cherry on top, like in the wrong part of LA on a bad day, magnetic storms, no sex, migranes, what you thought you just snorted was not Xanax or Oxy but powdered bleach and your water and electric's now been truned off for over a week.
And your boxed wine has run out, the car won't start, your assets have been frozen by the ex and her new biker boyfriend thinks you need to be severely beaten for the fresh hickey on her upper inner thigh when you haven't seen her for over a year.
Could be worse.
Seriously
It could. When you're sent to the FuckEMA camp, ensconsed in the Goldman Sachs barracks and forced to watch endless loops of Cramer and CNBS you'll think it worse.
Could be worse.
Seriously
It could...
I apologize if my comment is seen as an attempt to tolerate liars, thieves and ruthlessly violent people. Because things could be far far better with a healthy dose of truth. What seems to bring out the hatred and animosity around here the most is the sense of being lied to.
When being flattered or told something we desperately want to believe, we open ourselves up to being taken advantage of. The term is beguiling, due to the fact the flatterer has ulterior motives.
It's one thing to be lied to, but to be stolen from and violated while listening to the lies multiplies the misery of the deciet. We've all experienced it and are hardened and embittered by the experience when it happens to us. When in fact, many of us have been professionally trained in the art and consequently have at least 2 personas to show for it.
So while it is true things could be worse, that's no way to live. Things could and should be better. But it starts with truth. Cold, unvarnished and accurate in every detail. Then we can do something about it. Like maybe move on to trust.
But that's a topic for another day.
jmo.
1998 - just before LTCM blow-up. head of the arb/prop desk (a major bank and they blew up) 'i loves cramer, he's my number one imp'.
he survived. i'm not sure except in body that i have. he won.
How do you explain the fact that withholding revs have fallen off a cliff??
Why did you not state that the unemployment rate is falling because businesses are running out of people to fire?
Why did you not state that as many job's that can be shipped offshore ARE being shipped offshore?
Why did you not mention that initial claims of 350K, is a shelf, and to expect an average weekly initial claims number of 350K for the rest of the year, with a May spike?
This is where i cut you slack.
Peddle your bullshit somwhere else.
I can tell you that trying to hire someone in Lincoln or Omaha NE, sucks. Low response to sales positions paying 40-100K and equipment operators with over a $50K package 3 responses and two had no valid drivers license.
I read all the gloom and doom here... generally a very good read. Of course the comments are where the good shit is.
I started with Alex J 4 years ago and that shit fucked me up then I realized its prolly a cia front to capture comments and add to my "Global Profile".
In the mean time our business is up over 12% in the last year and only one year down in the last 5.
Bottom line is there ARE places in the USSSA that are doing OK and these mofos will extend this game for 20 years.
So position yourself accordingly and balance your thoughts but 1st get right with GOD the Father.
Winning!