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Job growth and economic improvement are for REAL
Just a few thoughts and facts before the employment report for March is out. No time like just before the report to issue some thoughts so that the next day you can be shown to be horribly wrong, but here it goes.
I see on ZH a lot of antipathy for government data especially on jobs. Interestingly this week a number NON GOVERNMENT reports have been very up-beat
The ADP, a well-known private sector report based on a blown up sample from actual data from a payroll-services company continues to pour out evidence of over 200K jobs per month being created.
Private sector source…
The Challenger Gray and Christmas issue a report that looks at firms’ announced corporate layoffs from notices (medium-sized and larger) firms are required to post each month. The report for March shows us the 16th lowest announced corporate layoffs in March among the last 19 Marches. Since data are NOT seasonally adjusted (some of you will like this report even more because of that) this is an objective way to assess its strength/weakness. This lay off indicator is low.
Private sector source…
A Bloomberg Survey on consumer comfort has just shot up this week to show a one week increase in ‘consumer comfort’ with a jump so large that it occurs less than 6% of the time. In this weekly series going back to 1986 the 17-week change in the Bloomberg index has been surpassed only three other times (all of these were the product of the same 1998 episode). This is a twice in a 25-yeear experience.
Private sector source…
So put it together and SOMETHING is happening.
For those who belong to that shadowy group ‘weather-o-nomics’, yes weather has had an impact on data but it has had pluses and minuses- try talking to someone who runs a ski resort or a winter lodge business. I think the weather thing is overplayed for its impact.
On balance the big problem we do not seem to ever to be able to agree on is unemployment and this fine. We can all have our own favorite measure. Just be sure to plot it back in time and to compare today’s figures with the same definition and its higher numbers at all points in the past.
Everything is relative here.
I am encouraged that the ADP shows that private small services businesses have brought their employment levels back up to where they were Pre-Recession. Some small businesses are making great strides; some are not..
Of course the goods sector is challenged. Despite some good-looking recent MFG reports recently, the fact is that although the calendar year of 2011 was the first year in a decade in which MFG gained jobs the sector is lagging woefully behind in creating jobs in this recovery cycle.
The job market is a hodge-podge and it is not in good shape but it is improving. The improvement is quite good compared to what had been in train, previously. There is a long way to go. But let’s recognize progress without being satisfied by it.
And we’ll see if the ‘official report’ reflects that progress tomorrow. I expect it will. Also note that two government surveys one of firms’ payrolls and the other from the more inclusive household survey are showing job growth that is in step with the private sector ADP report.
Stay tuned for a 240K sort of gain in Private jobs for March.
Remember do not ever forecast a job number unless you are prepared to be wrong. There is nothing that breeds humility like making a forecast.
Well posting comments on ZH…and reading the blow-back is right up there.
Good luck any of you market junkies that bet on this number.
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the tax abatement program!
really!
Address this, sir! http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/02/fewer-nonfarm-employe...
I wonder how much of that is people going to school. We have seen massive student loan increases.
Handwave THIS away, Bobby baby!
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/02/fewer-nonfarm-employe...
ADP is a reliable source. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
"This report is commonly understood to be even less reliable than the monthly BLS employment report. I did some research a while back on how ADP calculates its numbers and discovered that they use similar algorithmic modelling as the BLS. I think that tells you all you need to know about the ADP monthly report. Note also that it is clearly stated as an "estimate."
http://truthingold.blogspot.com/
Gotta love all the spinning on the MSM about how economists can't figure out why the economy isn't improving since it is "adding" jobs. The answer is simple, it isn't. If you believe fudged data you will not get an answer that makes sense. What the hell is wrong with these people?
The ADP is trying to predict the monthly non-farm numbers what did you expect to find?
Instead of everyone trying to predict the lies, how about just telling the reality of it, U6 16% unemployment....although real unemployment is probably closer to 20%
Just show me 1 company that has hired an actual 1,000 new full time employees that have any kind of decent pay and I'll consider believing any of their data and statistics.
do I Hear 30%?
how about 40%
C'mon no facts needed here just bid away.
Look fuck tard - everyone and their god damned grandmother has teased apart these numbers. They're low wage and part time service jobs, okay? There now. You're the last person in the universe to be clued in.
Now go buy some apple stock at the top tick, idiot.
Let's look at a source that is not government propaganda.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
"C'mon no facts needed here just bid away."
Really Robert - try the U6 rate - un and underemployment is quite high right now - probably at least 20% if not higher. Now you must also be one that believes that once someone of working age falls off the UE doles they magically don't care to work any longer EVER. Where are your facts (and the BLS's) to support that massive myth?
What about alternate measures for the UR that are closer to the truth? http://www.shadowstats.com/
http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/charts/alt-unemployment-mini.gif
Overall employment participation in this nation is MILLIONS lower than it was just 5 years ago, despite growth in the working age population.
Food stamp growth has been epidemic (must be great jobs we're 'creating and saving' hmmm?)
What other facts do you claim you need and that we're not giving you?
tax receipts down, SS funds short, obamastamps at all time high. These stats have yet to be fudged and totally contradict jobs numbers.
Why are the jobs numbers inflated then adjusted down later nearly every single time? Yet nobody reports that. Traders know it, but the media feeds the rest a bunch of job BS.
Right there are no facts here at all, so go gamble on whatever you believe some govt bullshit office will tell you, but dont try to tell me its reality and that theres real growth in anything but manure spreading.
BTW, can you show me 1,000 actual full time jobs wheres that company? Id like to see them on CNBC showing all the positions filled. Ive never seen that once, just these BS numbers floating across the screen. We 'hear' this and that, lets see some proof.
You can believe what you want and 'bid' on it all you like!
Yesterdays mortgage underwriter is todays sign spinner. There's no such thing as over-qualified any more.
The "official" data to be released tomorrow will not, can not and must not be anything but favorable and will not show these distinctions.
The destructive nature of these changes aren't quantifiable in their matrix, but they are very real.
The hunger showing in the eyes of these people will not be satisfied with food. Loss of dignity, integrity and purpose are not found in these charts.
jmo.
Sign spinner...lol....todays 'jobs' are basically stuff monkeys wouldnt even do.
Reminds me of "make-work" back in the late Tito days of Yugoslavia. One guy in a blue worker outfit digging the hole with 5 more standing around the hole looking at him, and another 6-7 further back talking to each other and having a smoke. Saw it every day in many ways.
So, America, where capitalism = patriotism, has begun to slip into the 'ol this model doesn't work anymore slope.
Umm, I see that every day near my house where a road crew has been widening a road for at least 10-12 months. A couple of guys working. Two with the traffic control signs. Eight others just standing around.
The construction companies around here are in work slow mode. They don't want to finish a job because they don't have anthor job lined up.
"Antipathy" is not a strong enough word.
Thank you just won a bet for that.
Intellectuals solve problems; geniuses prevent them.- Albert Einstein
Robert...thanks for posting that piece here. It takes a lot of courage. A lot of us are pissed off at a government that we believe absolutely fudges the numbers. C'mon. Food and energy excluded?? Birth/death model?
Yes. Figures never lie... liars figure. So while I disagree with several points, I see several that are substantially true. Thanks for writing and defending yourself like a gentleman.
Somehow this article brings to mind the old saying -
There are three kinds of lies:
Small lies
Big damn lies
Statistics
Google Domestic Trends shows an uptick in their Unemployment Index since Mar 26:
http://www.google.com/finance?q=GOOGLEINDEX_US:UNEMPL
The google Unemployment Index includes much more than unemployment: such things as food stamps, social security, and disability. The March 26 value is noticeably down from the first of the year, and is almost the lowest value of this index in the past 4 months. Today's value of the entire index is up a miniscule amount from March 26, and it cannot be ascertained from the aggregate index if it unemployment, food stamps, etc was the primary factor.
Considering the increasing number of people claiming disability, and increasing filing for food stamps, that index tends to corroborate Brusca's call that employment is probably improving.
"that index tends to corroborate Brusca's call that employment is probably improving"
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAH.
Wipe off your chin.
joblessness maturing?
Two words: Charles Biderman.
"Two words: Charles Biderman."
Eight more words: David Tice, Bill Fleckenstein, Robert Preckter, David Rosenberg. Four more discredited bears that have had to crawl back to their dens.
My question to you, Carl, and to Robert is "what industry or new technology is driving the jobs growth you say is happening?". Previously, it was very clear. In the 90's it was the Internet. In the 2000's it was housing and the financialization of housing. What is it today?
Take this, read it, and stick it your ass - Because that's clearly where your brain is: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/02/fewer-nonfarm-employe...
"Job growth and economic improvement are for REAL"
And Blythe speaks the whole truth and nothing but.
Job growth is a lagging indicator.
Lots of job growth in March. Uhuh!
@ RobertBrusca #FAIL
Too much hopium bro - you been watchin NBS??
March NFP big miss at just 120K. Unemployment rate declines from 8.3% to 8.2%. Futures slide, for at least a few minutes before the NEW QE TM rumor starts spreading. The household survey actually posted a decline in March from 142,065 to 142,034. Considering Birth Death added 90K to the NSA number, the actual number was almost unchanged. The unemployment rate drops to 8.2% for one simple reason: the number of people not in the labor force is back to all time highs: 87,897,000. And as always, as we predicted when Goldman hiked its NFP forecast yesterday from 175K to 200K saying "if Goldman's recent predictive track record is any indication, tomorrow's NFP will be a disaster", Goldie once again skewers everyone. Finally, Joe LaVorgna's +250,000 forecast was just 100% off... as usual.
Tyler 10
Brusca 0
ADP, oh my god, and how many times have these assholes been way off? Too many times to count.