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For Those That Want To Take A Peek Inside the Professional BoomBustBlog Paywall, Here's All of My Groupon Research - MUPPETS!!!

Reggie Middleton's picture





 

I have decided to allow those who are curious or who may not have not heard of me, and those oft celebrated MUPPETS (see Goldman Sachs Executive Director Corroborates Reggie Middleton's Stance: Business Model Designed To Rip Off Clients) to actually see what I keep behind the BoombBustBlog paywall by distributing our premium research for free. Why do such a thing? Well, to be honest, I do it in celebration of the man quoted as saying "Lets start having fun... lets get funky... let's announce everything... let's be WILDLY positive in our forecasts... lets take this thing to the extreme... if we get wacked [sic] on the ride down-who gives a shit... THE TIME TO GET RADICAL IS NOW... WE HAVE NOTHING TO LOSE..."(hint, this is the current Groupon CEO) in addition to the underwriters of said wonderful company. Read on and you'll see why such independent research is desperately - and I do mean desperately - needed. As a matter of fact, there's no valide reason why (after reading this rather meaty article) my servers should not be overloaded by the deluge of ex-muppets looking for some guidance through the fog of muppet master bankers stateside. To wit...

Wall Street Rakes in $42 Million From Groupon IPO - Deal Journal ...

Wall Street bankers did yeoman’s work pushing through Groupon’s IPO. Now, the bills are coming due.

From their work on last week’s IPO of Groupon, the 14 underwriters who handled the $700 million stock sale will split at least $42 million in fees and underwriting discounts, according to a Groupon regulatory filing this week. The fees are about 6% of the total IPO proceeds, a typical slice for an initial public offering.

Groupon’s lead bankers — Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse — are expected to take in the lion’s share of the underwriting fees, according to data from CapitalIQ.

The banks could take in an additional $6.3 million in fees if they elect to buy 5.25 million Groupon shares from the company. Groupon declined to comment.

Of course, why not buy the shares back at around $10 after selling them to clueless, non-BoomBustBlog subscribing muppets for $30 just 4 months earlier - AND getting paid $42 million for the massive capital gains privilege. Hey, what's the worst that can happen? Your accountant will have to guzzle one less red bull(sh1t) in order to offest the tax liabilty of one rip-off by another.After all, why pay taxes on money that you extract from muppets? Seriously, why?????

CapitalIQ projects that Morgan Stanley, which had played a lead role in many of the biggest U.S. tech IPOs this year, will collect $17.4 million, or roughly 40%, of the Groupon IPO commissions. Goldman is expected to take in about 21% of the total fee pool, or $8.9 million, according to the Capital IQ data.

...  Both Goldman and Morgan Stanley have been vying to lead the expected IPO of Facebook. 

Luckily for those who do not want to be muppets, or may not ever have been a muppet, I have plenty of subscriber research for Facebook as well (click here to subscribe)...

Through the end of October, Goldman Sachs was the top-ranked IPO underwriter this year, according to a Dealogic ranking of banks by the collective value of the IPOs on which they work. Morgan Stanley was the No. 2 IPO underwriter in the world, according to the Dealogic figures through October. A year ago, Morgan Stanley topped the IPO undewriter list, and Goldman was No. 3.

I have commented ad nauseum on the percieved need to do business with name brands, those who do God's work, and those who simply cannot trade - muppet masters and all - as I clearly articulated on the Max Keiser show last week.
... and on previous shows. 
Now, all of you Goldman, Morgan Stanley, et. al. lovers, don't get your muppetware in a bunch, you know that I know that you know that It Is Now Common Knowledge That Goldman’s Investment Advice Sucks???, as excerpted:

It's official, the mainstream media has turned on those "doing God's work" and come to the side of BoomBustBlog.

I must admit, I was shocked when I first read this headline and saw the accompanying cover. After all, Bloomberg was the organization that published a story lavishing adulation upon a young Goldman analyst that had a 38% win rate throughout the credit crisis and (faux) recovery. I see those results as mediocre at best, and downright horrible from a realistic perspective. To make matters even worse, I believe I ran circles not only around that analyst, but the entire firm, see Did Reggie Middleton, a Blogger at BoomBustBlog, Best Wall Streets Best of the Best? The next thing you know, this heavy nugget of truth is dropped, and all I can say is.... Damn. Let's excerpt some juicy tidbits from Blankfein Flunks Asset Management as Jim Clark Vows No More Goldman Sachs:

And just so you don't think this is a personal vendetta against said muppet master pulling the strings that do God's work (it's probably more like an impersonal vendettaLaughing), let's sprinkle a little yellow stream on the Morgan Stanley parade shall we? After all, Morgan Stanley can be expected to pay up to 60% of those (ill-found? Depending on where your values lie...) gains in compensation, namely bonuses - apart from whether said bonuses were ever really deserved in the first place.... Yes, I'll go back there again, see Wall Street Real Estate Funds Lose Between 61% to 98% for Their Investors as They Rake in Fees!":

Last year I felt compelled to comment on Wall Street private fund fees after getting into a debate with a Morgan Stanley employee about the performance of the CRE funds. He had the nerve to brag about the fact that MS made money despite the fact they lost about 2/3rds of their clients money. I though to myself, "Damn, now that's some bold, hubristic s@$t". So, I decided to attempt to lay it out for everybody in the blog, see "

The example below illustrates the impact of change in the value of real estate investments on the returns of the various stakeholders - lenders, investors (LPs) and fund sponsor (GP), for a real estate fund with an initial investment of $9 billion, 60% leverage and a life of 6 years. The model used to generate this example is freely available for download to prospective Reggie Middleton, LLC clients and BoomBustBlog subscribers by clicking here: Real estate fund illustration. All are invited to run your own scenario analysis using your individual circumstances and metrics....

... Under the base case assumptions, the steep price declines not only wipes out the positive returns from the operating cash flows but also shaves off a portion of invested capital resulting in negative cumulated total returns earned for the real estate fund over the life of six years. However, owing to 60% leverage, the capital losses are magnified for the equity investors leading to massive erosion of equity capital. However, it is noteworthy that the returns vary substantially for LPs (contributing 90% of equity) and GP (contributing 10% of equity). It can be observed that the money collected in the form of management fees and acquisition fees more than compensates for the lost capital of the GP, eventually emerging with a net positive cash flow. On the other hand, steep declines in the value of real estate investments strip the LPs (investors) of their capital. The huge difference between the returns of GP and LPs and the factors behind this disconnect reinforces the conflict of interest between the fund managers and the investors in the fund.

re_fund_returns.png

Okay, enough the Muppet Manipulating, Money Marauding, Doing Work in God's Name Brand Bank Bashing... Let's get down to the nitty gritty of the report that I said I will give away for free. I am offering the report, earnings advisory addendum and accompanying simplified model to show what we're made of. Of course paying subscribers, and even casual blog readers, cannot say that I didn't thoroughly warn you! Early shorts on this stock as per our research notes valuation matrices would have given pleasant Christmas presents and would have also stuffed one hell of an Easter basket as well!!!

In case you still don't get it, the sell side research departments of these banks did not offer BoomBustBlog research to their clients. Oh no, then how in the hell can they dump their stock??? They issued glowing reports from their own analytical cum soft sales staff.

On that note, let's reminisce.... In June of 2011 I release proprietary research to BoomBustBlog Subscribers. You can now download said report absolutely free, here icon Groupon Forensic Analysis & Valuation (923.04 kB 2011-06-16 10:34:36). After reading said report, prepare for some real comedy, as reported byDailypolitical.com:

Groupon (NASDAQ: GRPN) was downgraded by equities research analysts at Stifel Nicolaus from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a research note issued to investors on Monday.

Other equities research analysts have also recently issued reports about the stock. Analysts at Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) downgraded shares of Groupon from a “buy” rating to a “neutral” rating in a research note to investors on Monday. They now have a $20.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $30.00. Separately, analysts at Benchmark Co. cut their price target on shares of Groupon from $32.00 to $28.00 in a research note to investors on Monday. They now have a “buy” rating on the stock. Finally, analysts at Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of Groupon in a research note to investors on Thursday, February 9th.

Groupon traded down 3.20% on Monday, hitting $14.54. Groupon has a 52-week low of $14.85 and a 52-week high of $31.14. The company’s market cap is $9.376 billion.

Whoa!!! Goldman Sachs reiterated their "buy" recommendation just in time for their damn Muppet Clients to lose ~40% by the close of the market today. Go ahead, stuff those damn Muppets, fellas!

Groupon_Crash_warnings

For the record, in June of 2011, a full ten months ago, I made clear to my subscribers the following (as excerpted from the now free download)...

We value Groupon at $6.6bn using DCF. The current valuation is based on 10 years of revenue projections which are overly optimistic in our view.  We have forecasted revenues of $4.0bn in 2011 and expect revenues to nearly double to $7.5bn in 2012 and reach $35bn by 2020. We have assumed cost of equity of 12% and terminal growth of 3% from 2021 onwards. We have kept gross profit at stable levels and assumed operational gearing to (? Operating Profit / ? Revenue) to improve considerably. Despite these optimistic projections we were still not able to justify a valuation close to $10bn let alone $20-25bn. We only see downside risks to valuation of $6.6bn and believe that Groupon’s rejection of Google offer of $6.0bn was a mistake in first place. Google’s valuation of $6.0bn most assuredly included a premium for synergies that Google could have achieved with Groupon which would be clearly absent in the standalone entity. We see the fair value of Groupon close to $3.0-4.0bn if we assume a more realistic picture. Given all kinds of questions surrounding Groupon’s business regarding the sustainability of revenue growth, costs control and even the business model itself (i.e., the relationship with merchants) and external competition, we remain deeply concerned even on the sustainability of a successful IPO for Groupon. 

For the record,at about $14 per share, Groupon is market-valued at about $9.1 billion dollars!!!! Here are some key highlights: Groupon restates revenue, EXACTLY as I warned just three months earlier.

  1. Monday, 26 September 2011 What's The Best Way To Profit From Groupon's IPO?
  2. file iconGroupon Revenue Restated 09/26/2011
Groupon starts trading on the Nasdaq via IPO...
  1. Sunday, 13 November 2011 I Hope You Groupon IPO Investors Got Coupons At The IPO!!! Yeah, That's Right I Was The First To Say It
Favorite hits from said documents...
Groupon_revenue_restated_Page_1_copy
Groupon_revenue_restated_Page_2_copy
Groupon_Valuation_redacted_Page_03_copy
Groupon_Valuation_redacted_Page_04_copy
Groupon_Valuation_redacted_Page_05_copy
There's a WHOLE LOT MORE, but this post is long enough as it is. Simply download the links above, and don't forget to reference the valuation section of original forensic report. There's an early Christmas present in there for the stingy muppets!

Semantic Housekeeping

I noticed in the comment columns of some of the blogs that there was some controversy concerning my dressing up as aZulu warrior in my hunting of the giant Vampire Squid. I wish to correct thee. I did not dress up as anyone but Reggie. I had shorts on from the Gap. As for the weaponry donned, yes I did grab a little something from my personal stash, but it was not Zulu, it wasMasaiin origin. I suggest all brush up on their African warrior history. Why don weapons at all? Well as intellectually and physically capable as I desire myself to be, hunting Vampire Squid can be a dangerous occupation, therefore one should go into the fray fully packed. Was I somehow regretfrul of marketing my brand as who I actually am? Of course not. If anything, I suggest many of you institutional asset manager types don intellectual weaponry of some sort or fashion, be it of Zulu, Masai or other origin. After all...

Who would rather be, a 45% to 62% capitalLOSS MUPPETor aMasai (or Zulu) Warrior? Should I even have to ask?

 

Shaka kaSenzangakhona (aka Shaka Zulu)
KingShaka
The only known drawing of Shaka—standing with the long throwing assegai and the heavy shield in 1824, four years before his death
Reign 1816 - 1828
Born ca. 1787
KwaZulu-Natal, near Melmoth
Died c. 1828
KwaZulu-Natal
Occupation Monarch of the Zulu Kingdom

 

Masai Warriors 

Bundesarchiv_Bild_105-DOA0556_Deutsch-Ostafrika_Massaikrieger

Maasai warriors in German East Africa, c. 1906-1918.

For some reason, it appears that there are still many monied interests that would literally want to be a little green (yet cute) victim versus an entity that would stand up, arm itself intellectually and defend its own economic interests. Alas, to each their own....

Goldman Clients aka MUPPETS!!!

Click any and all graphics in this post to expand to print quality

Reggie_Middleton_hunting_the_Squid_Known_As_Goldman_Sachs_GS

 


I'm Hunting Big Game Today: The Squid On A Spear Tip

Summary: This is the first in a series of articles to be released this weekend concerning Goldman Sachs, the Squid! In this introduction (for those who do not regularly follow me) I demonstrate how the market, the sell side, and most investors are missing one of the biggest bastions of risk in the US investment banking industry. I will also...

 Hunting the Squid, Part2: Since When Is Enough Derivative Exposure To Blow Up The World Something To Be Ignored?Hunting the Squid, Part2: Since When Is Enough Derivative Exposure To Blow Up The World Something To Be Ignored?Hunting the Squid, Part2: Since When Is Enough Derivative Exposure To Blow Up The World Something To Be Ignored?  

Hunting the Squid, Part2: Since When Is Enough Derivative Exposure To Blow Up The World Something To Be Ignored?

Welcome to part two of my series on Hunting the Squid, the overvaluation and under-appreciation of the risks that is Goldman Sachs. Since this highly analytical, but poignant diatribe covers a lot of material, it's imperative that those who have not done so review part 1 of this series, I'm Hunting Big Game Today:The Squid On The Spear Tip, Part...

Reggie Middleton Serves Up Fried Calamari From Raw Squid: Goldman Sachs and Market Perception of Real Risks!Reggie Middleton Serves Up Fried Calamari From Raw Squid: Goldman Sachs and Market Perception of Real Risks!Reggie Middleton Serves Up Fried Calamari From Raw Squid: Goldman Sachs and Market Perception of Real Risks!

Hunting the Squid Part 3: Reggie Middleton Serves Up Fried Calamari From Raw Squid

For those who don't subscribe to BoomBustblog, or haven't read I'm Hunting Big Game Today:The Squid On The Spear Tip, Part 1 & Introduction and Hunting the Squid, Part2: Since When Is Enough Derivative Exposure To Blow Up The World Something To Be Ignored?, not only have you missed out on some unique artwork, you've potentially missed out on 300%...

 Hunting the Squid, part 4: So, What Else Can Go Wrong With The Squid? Plenty!!!Hunting the Squid, part 4: So, What Else Can Go Wrong With The Squid? Plenty!!!Hunting the Squid, part 4: So, What Else Can Go Wrong With The Squid? Plenty!!!  

Hunting the Squid, part 4: So, What Else Can Go Wrong With Goldman Sachs? Plenty!

Yes, this more of the hardest hitting investment banking research available focusing on Goldman Sachs (the Squid), but before you go on, be sure you have read parts 1.2. and 3:  I'm Hunting Big Game Today:The Squid On A Spear Tip, Part 1 & Introduction Hunting the Squid, Part2: Since When Is Enough Derivative Exposure To Blow Up The World Something To...

 

And back to Groupon for a minute... Way to Go Muppet Masters Goldman et Morgan, eh? Let's not fret too much about the $42 million  in fees. My assumption is that it is both expensive and fraught with red tape, you know getting a Ponzi scheme authorized by the SEC!!!

Groupon IPO Scandal Is the Sleaze That's Legal

Bloomberg - 15 hours ago
Girard Gibbs LLP Launches Groupon, Inc. Legal Investigation
Reuters Key Development - Apr 3, 2012
Newman Ferrara LLP Investigates Groupon, Inc. for Possible Breaches of <b>......
MarketWatch - Apr 3, 2012


A quick visual op-ed courtesy of williambanzai7...Reggie Middleton Serves Up Fried Calamari From Raw Squid: Goldman Sachs and Market Perception of Real Risks!Reggie Middleton Serves Up Fried Calamari From Raw Squid: Goldman Sachs and Market Perception of Real Risks!

FRAUDOMETER

 


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Fri, 04/06/2012 - 19:17 | Link to Comment WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

moved to reply

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 18:55 | Link to Comment jal
jal's picture

Regie ...

You are not properly dressed or equipped to go hunting a squid that can create money and therefore claims to be a creator and doing gods work.

Everyone who walks into the lair of the squid know exactly that "The fees are about 6% of the total IPO proceeds, a typical slice for an initial public offering.".

 

What should be emphasized is that Groupon knows that it will receive 94% of the ponzie.


Fri, 04/06/2012 - 18:39 | Link to Comment Questan1913
Questan1913's picture

I see MUPPETS everywhere...Reggie sees Goldman's MUPPETS, but....

I see Barry MUPPETS, Romney MUPPETS, Media MUPPETS, US MUPPETS, Repugnantcan MUPPETS, DemoRAT MUPPETS, Enviromental MUPPETS, Green MUPPETS, Constitutional MUPPETS, Socialist MUPPETS, on and on ad nauseum.  This is a MUPPET world, with everyone working their particular swindle on anyone susceptible.  You reading this are a MUPPET, as I am.  Almost impossible not to be.  Thanks for the article Reggie, you have discovered the tiny tip of an unimagineably collossal iceberg. 

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 18:33 | Link to Comment RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Reggie

I have a lot of respect for you. You are obviously intelligent and have done some good independent research.
While it’s fine to point out that the analysts at these "bulge bracket" banks don't always produce research and investment calls that make their clients risk-adjusted $, and to point out inherent biases and conflicts that lead to this, please don’t join the rest of these Cletuses in claiming its some unholy conspiracy to stuff their clients.
I’m assuming that as a respected member of the financial community you’ve had a chance to meet and get to know plenty of analysts, enough to know that the VAST majority are very intelligent, moral people that work VERY hard to provide their clients with the best research they are capable of. The fact is that beating the markets is VERY hard and requires an out of the box, black-swan type of thought process that doesn’t fit in very well at buttoned down places like Goldman, JPM and MS. These analysts are paid to get as close as possible to next quarter’s earnings for as many companies under their coverage as possible. This is not conducive to getting the big picture right or to calling revolutionary changes in industries or the macro environment. They are singles hitters.
People like you (me) and decent HF managers are more of homerun hitters. If you are honest about your research, you’d probably admit that trying to make BIG calls also means your at bat rating is lower. Of course where investment management and baseball differ is that we get to progressively risk our calls. We can bet big when the odds are VERY high and small when we are taking a flyer. Kind of like choosing to swing for the fences when the bases are loaded vs trying to bunt when they are empty.
Anyway, enough of the analogies. What I’m trying to say is that you shouldn’t confuse bad results with intent to defraud. Don’t join these Cletuses on ZH in this OWS anti-apitalist hippy BS about vampire squids and banksters. Next thing you know, you will be mumbling about the Illuminati, Rothchilds and Trilatteral commission. Its not Cletuses fault. They are unemployed basement trolls in buttfucksville West Virginia that have never had a chance to meet a Wall Street analyst, much less get to know dozens of them and their families (I’ve worked in the business for 15 years). But you don’t have that excuse.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 18:08 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

On one hand, its outrageous what a criminal pirate ship Golden Slacks is, on the other hand its hard to feel sorry for muppets who do business with these crooks and get screwed by them!

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 18:06 | Link to Comment Setarcos
Setarcos's picture

Nothing new under the Sun.

When I were a lad in England, c. 1955, there arose a Ponzi scheme called Green Shield Stamps, wherein retailers were conned into giving their customers x numbers of little green stamps, which were stuck into 'stamp albums' religiously, until enough had been saved to redeem for some item ... that's how I got a pressure cooker eventually.

Almost needless to say: rival schemes popped up and, before too long, the whole lot went bust.

Thuswise I never bothered to pay much attention to Groupon, nor umpteen other utter failures over the intervening years, nor even such enduring 'pyramids' as Avon and Amway.

Much as I like Reggie's analyses generally, surely(?) it wasn't necessary to expend so much effort on Groupon, the template for which has been used so often before.

OK there's always a 'new generation' that is born in ignorance and ripe for suckering, but wouldn't it be simpler and more effective to just briefly describe some former example of a current scam, like I just did?

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 20:17 | Link to Comment Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

Ah, memory lane littered with S&H green stamps, Gold Bond, there were some others.  At least then there were marginal barriers to entry (had to print and distribute the stamps and booklets, erect redemption centers, print redemption magazines full of merchandise).  What are the barriers to a web-based coupon scheme?  Virtually none, which is why you see so many knock offs already.  The local morning TV show runs a bug every day w/the daily coupon deal.  To get it, you just have to "like" the show on fazebook.  Good luck Goldman and your  suckers...you deserve each other.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 19:17 | Link to Comment WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

My favorite was A&P Plaid stamps but I still have some S & H Green stamps. Sort of like Zimbabwe dollars but smaller.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 14:04 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

but what will the outsourced help in India think Reggie?

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 13:43 | Link to Comment ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Wasn't Lloyd checking the company's emails for "muppets?"

Haven't heard anything more about that.  Probably the computer that checks the emails is slower than the one that trades?

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 13:25 | Link to Comment Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Really enjoyed the post Reg!  Don't ever change bro you are one of a kind

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:42 | Link to Comment GCT
GCT's picture

Wow this really bothers me.  How can investment firms do this and not go to jail boggles my mind.  This should be criminal and people prosecuted.  I read the Groupon prospectus and then checked with some friends and they owned small businesses and said they were a rip off.   Spot on Reggie. 

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 15:14 | Link to Comment sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

GCT                 2322404 

Wow this really bothers me.  How can investment firms do this and not go to jail boggles my mind.  This should be criminal and people prosecuted.  I read the Groupon prospectus and then checked with some friends and they owned small businesses and said they were a rip off.   Spot on Reggie.

 

Comment:

Use a little logic and you'll find that many corporations based upon a model of needing an increasing customer base (subscriptions usually) to maintin revenue and it's called a ponzi scheme. In other words, they sell a product but have to spend more then the profit margins to gain more customers to feed cash flow. Cash flow is always king and when that ends. That is when the musical chair game ends. Netflix is that way, groupon is that way and that online gaming site is that way. They bleed cash.  Hype of their company as if its the best technology, do a quick IPO, executives cash out, eventually company goes under. stockholders and maybe taxpayers get hosed. Rinse repeat with other companies.

 

Now look at the above. Anything else come to mind? How about Social Security? New taxpayers are required to maintain cash flow. Outgoing payments are outpacing margins (money coming in vs money going out even though gov has no care about profitabiility. After all the taxpayer is always the goose that lays the golden egg, right?). It bleeds cash as there are not enough new taxpayers to be able to support retired people living longer. SS is hyped as the best and only social safety net. Politicians cash out and have their own pension plans separate from SS while using SS as a voting tool.

Will SS go under and will taxpayers get hosed? To be continued and decided until the musical chair game ends.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 10:56 | Link to Comment GCT
GCT's picture

The government is a  legalized ponzi.  I am still learning about some of this financial stuff.  Actually discusssed the SS think with an economic professor and told him it was a big ponzi and what would happen when there are less payers then paayees and he would not reply! 

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:29 | Link to Comment palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

Good stuff. I think you've tickled more than Elmo's fancy Reggie. 

Now tell us where the herd is going to bolt to when AAPL collapses....I know...paywall  lol

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:15 | Link to Comment Thisson
Thisson's picture

You know what would make the "Fraudometer" picture perfect?  A big Facebook "F" in the middle between the Enron "E" and Groupon "G".

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:07 | Link to Comment The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

So, Google can pick up Groupon in the secondary markets for about $6B in the coming weeks, and The Street got to pocket $42m along the way. Everybody is a winner here ... Look in the footnotes in the Risk Factors to see that Everybody does not include Muppets.

Hey Reg, didn't even think of the Zulu thing ... It looked like you were wearing board-shorts and carrying a short board and a spear to go spear-fishing. Does my inability to see things in racial terms make me a racist?

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:16 | Link to Comment hotkarlandthecl...
hotkarlandtheclevelandsteamers's picture

Wow Reggie you truly are a genius you knew GRPN was overvalued.  How about posting your pieces on AAPL from 2010 or JPM 2009.  BAAAHHHAAAHHHA!!!  If you throw enough darts one will eventually land in the bullseye.  How about your LNKD piece!!!

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 18:08 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh all those will have their day too there HOTKARL.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 15:20 | Link to Comment Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

Sigh........fanboys.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:23 | Link to Comment Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

Actually, I will post all of the Apple paid research for free (just like I did GRPN, RIMM, BSC, etc.), most likely in the next 3 or 4 quarters, dating all the way back to the first piece from 2011. I'm sure you'll be quite surprised and would owe an apology once you read it, but I somehow doubt one will be forthcoming. Until then, just keep guessing what's behind the paywall or find out the old fashioned way.

As I have said, thus far, I haven't been wrong on Apple. I should probably stop now before you and your Apple fanatic friends turn this GRPN/Goldman Sachs post into an Apple thread. If you have to discuss Apple further, email me and don't litter this space with  content that is off topic.

BTW, my track record is available for all to see, and I believe it is definitely something to be proud of. Then again, I'm a little biased, aren't I?

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:41 | Link to Comment Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

Thanks Reg. We oldtimers know what Apple is about...and what is coing down the pike. And I like Apple stuff.  Just not the stock. Oh well, "Those who forget history......"

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 14:26 | Link to Comment whoknoz
whoknoz's picture

anybody with dingleberry as a handle has to be on oldtimer and ergo has to be OK...

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:18 | Link to Comment Thisson
Thisson's picture

No worries, Reggie.  We know Apple is overvalued, too.  $600/share?  Please. 

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 20:33 | Link to Comment Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

We know Apple is overvalued, too. $600/share? Please

Indeed.  So what does that make PCLN at $750+?  Insane, that's what.  Ever since the nun pushed Bill Shatner over the cliff, the stock's gone stratospheric.  We are truly in bizzarro world.   I guess all that excess money went somewhere...right into the sewer of over-hyped basket cases.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:13 | Link to Comment BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...nice work Reggie. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObjLb6ElTvs&feature=related 

P.S. The young college kids inside the beltway use Groupon and I have spoken with an owner (and know of others use of Groupon), inside their place of business as the owner's return on Groupon sat down two young and very very attractive ladies that were in his place at the time as a result, the owner and the Groupon customers had good things to say.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:19 | Link to Comment Thisson
Thisson's picture

Huh?  What are you trying to say? 

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 20:50 | Link to Comment BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...nothing man, just thought it worthy of report, regardless. Has nothing to do with Reggie's fine analysis. Field reports are note worthy. 

 

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 10:27 | Link to Comment myshadow
myshadow's picture

Is that 'peak' as the highth of something or 'peek' as in have a look,

or 'pique', something to be pissed about?

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 10:09 | Link to Comment cfosnock
cfosnock's picture

This is all fine and Dandy, but giving away your information for "free"after the fact does not help anyone. I do not believe that post-prediction was done in this case but it can not be ruled out. "Psychics "work by predicting a lot of things then pointing to the few things they got right. In order to prove your analysis skill I would think you would need to provide the "free" information before you were proven correct.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:16 | Link to Comment Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

It appears as if you were drinking before making this comment. You are recommending that someone who runs a subscription service give away his product? Where does the paying me part come in? I give away a lot of stuff, and the vast, vast majority of it has demonstrated a strong track record over 5 years or so.

That's beside the point though. You are seriously recommending something that is absurd at best. You should offer the same deal to your boss. I will work for free until you are convinced that you can actually benefit from my services, and until then you don't have to pay me. Just think about that for a minute.

I know the dot.com boom has trained many to expect services and content for free over the web, but this is truly taking it too far. If you want to be helped by subscription research, subscribe to it... 

Or you can always just accept the free research that Goldman is offering. See the article above for more detail...

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:22 | Link to Comment Thisson
Thisson's picture

Reggie, the substance of your research is excellent, but you *really* need to present this in a more readable format.  A good editor/proof-reader would also greatly improve your credibility, since your pursuasiveness is depending, in large part, on your audience's perception of you as an intelligent analyst.  It's clear that you are highly intelligent and a great analyst, but the lack of attention to details like spelling detracts from your message.  In other words, I think your subscription revenue would increase if you hired a proofreader before publishing your articles.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 16:28 | Link to Comment Sad Sufi
Sad Sufi's picture

Reggie,

Ditto @Thisson.

I considered subscribing, but your pieces are rambling, even on the website. I find it hard to scan and get to your recommendations. I like your work, despite your bravado, but would like to see easy to read summaries of research. Best to you.

 

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 16:38 | Link to Comment Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

There are summaries of the research available for all that I do, but as stated previously, it is behind a paywall. The free stuff is opinion and/or stale research that I have decided to release for free. Download the linked reports above to get a feel for whats behind the paywall. Thats what I included them for.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 20:29 | Link to Comment SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Reg, some people can't read numbers, only letters. Mike Grant's last post went berserko with only letters, sad. I personally have come across that impediment and surmounted it. I can tell you what a strange pleasure it is when a spreadsheet sings to me, or self-resonates like a tuning fork. For everybody else, there's Huffenpuff Post a year late. 

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:48 | Link to Comment SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

I've been drinking, too, but I really appreciate the "sneak-peak"- you know I've been waiting for your coupon.... Thank you, you're a brilliant man. (I'll have to come back tomw and say it again.)

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 20:19 | Link to Comment SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

OK I'm back, Happy Easter folks (no open thread?) any way, Reggie's still a BRILLIANT! man, and I'm still drinkin' (not guinness tho). Forget GROUPON, we all knew it was a piece of shit. What would be a really funny story that Reggie could tell us, would be about the "overallottment" shares on the underwriting, and how the underwriterz got paid BIG$$$ for essentially SHORTING the stock, and then buying it back during the settlement period so the price wouldn't drop below the offering price, before investors paid for their purchase. (Dylan Ratigan has nothing on me, I can run a sentence with the best of them).

Reggie: Howz the Google Chromebook doing? Awesome concept. How do you view a possible ChromePad? 2 separate & distinct markets, no? Weird, this is going way under the radar, and around the phone cos. too.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:52 | Link to Comment cfosnock
cfosnock's picture

No I was not drinking, neither did I ask you to post this research. You posted it in an attempt to get prospective clients to buy your service. My response was it is great research but how do I know it is punctual. In other words you did not convince me that I can actually benefit from your service. Rather than address my concerns you insult me. That is not how you gain customers.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:54 | Link to Comment Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

You posted it in an attempt to get prospective clients to buy your service.

I posted it because it is now approaching stale since the company has pretty much run the cours recommended in the research. That's why it was posted, and that is why the insurance, European banking, US CRE, etc. have not been posted yet.

Those who would be interested in subscribing should follow my free opinion and compare it to actual happenstance. If you do it long enough you will get a firm grasp on whether I'm worth my mettle or not.

I apologize if you feel that I insulted you. You see, I'm a humble guy after all... or at least I have manners :-)

As for whether it was punctual or not, simply look at the dates - they're all over the place.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 13:41 | Link to Comment cfosnock
cfosnock's picture

Reggie,

No need to apologize as I may have come across as gruff. What I'm saying is because the research is stale by your own admittance I have no real point of reference. As far as the dates, their is a program called Photoshop. I don't think you used it but how do I know you didn't use it. Anyway I'm extremely curious to see what your future research will indicate, but until then...

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:38 | Link to Comment Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

Just wait for Reggie's half off groupon deal coming soon haha

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 10:08 | Link to Comment ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Hey Reggie, thanks for the article. I didn't really need research to tell me not to invest in Groupon. Their business model is based on ripping off small businesses in the hopes that the customers who get 50% for skydiving will come back and pay full price.

Here is a little story on Masai warriors. They wear red cloaks when they tend their herds of cattle. The lions in Tanzania have become afraid of the color red, because they're afraid of the Masai. So, if you ever go on safari in Africa, wear red and the lions will leave you alone.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 10:06 | Link to Comment tedstr
tedstr's picture

Reggie, yo da man

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 10:02 | Link to Comment tamboo
tamboo's picture

refreshing humility!

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 09:48 | Link to Comment Fukushima Sam
Fukushima Sam's picture

That's some good supporting data, but without it anyone with half a brain knew Groupon was a piece of shit.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 14:00 | Link to Comment ToddGak
ToddGak's picture

The business is not scalable, because as they bring on more small to medium sized businesses as customers, they have to hire more people to manage the accounts.

Also they have to have salespeople in local markets to find new businesses to sign up.  So they either have to fly salespeople to Tulsa or Cincinnati, or set up offices in those small markets.  Which is expensive.

FAIL.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 19:53 | Link to Comment Tapeworm
Tapeworm's picture

Exactly.

 Many newspapers run Groupon style deals and already have an advertising sales force in place.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!