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The Largest Short-Term Threat to Humanity: The Fuel Pools of Fukushima
The Greatest Single Threat to Humanity: Fuel Pool Number 4
We noted days after the Japanese earthquake that the biggest threat was from the spent fuel rods in the fuel pool at Fukushima unit number 4, and not from the reactors themselves. See this and this.
We noted in February:
Scientists say that there is a 70% chance of a magnitude 7.0 earthquake hitting Fukushima this year, and a 98% chance within the next 3 years.
Given that nuclear expert Arnie Gundersen says that an earthquake of 7.0 or larger could cause the entire fuel pool structure collapse, it is urgent that everything humanly possible is done to stabilize the structure housing the fuel pools at reactor number 4.
Tepco is doing some construction at the building … it is a race against time under very difficult circumstances, and hopefully Tepco will win.
As AP points out:
The structural integrity of the damaged Unit 4 reactor building has long been a major concern among experts because a collapse of its spent fuel cooling pool could cause a disaster worse than the three reactor meltdowns.
***
Gundersen (who used to build spent fuel pools) explains that there is no protection surrounding the radioactive fuel in the pools. He warns that – if the fuel pools at reactor 4 collapse due to an earthquake – people should get out of Japan, and residents of the West Coast of America and Canada should shut all of their windows and stay inside for a while.
The fuel pool number 4 is apparently not in great shape, and there have already been countless earthquakes near the Fukushima region since the 9.0 earthquake last March.
Germany's ZDF tv quotes nuclear engineer Yukitero Naka as saying:
If another earthquake occurs then the building [number 4] could collapse and another chain reaction could very likely occur.
(Unit 4 contains plutonium as well as other radioactive wastes.)
Mainchi reported on Monday:
The storage pool in the No. 4 reactor building has a total of 1,535 fuel rods, or 460 tons of nuclear fuel, in it. The 7-story building itself has suffered great damage, with the storage pool barely intact on the building’s third and fourth floors. The roof has been blown away. If the storage pool breaks and runs dry, the nuclear fuel inside will overheat and explode, causing a massive amount of radioactive substances to spread over a wide area. Both the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and French nuclear energy company Areva have warned about this risk.
A report released in February by the Independent Investigation Commission on the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident stated that the storage pool of the plant’s No. 4 reactor has clearly been shown to be “the weakest link” in the parallel, chain-reaction crises of the nuclear disaster. The worse-case scenario drawn up by the government includes not only the collapse of the No. 4 reactor pool, but the disintegration of spent fuel rods from all the plant’s other reactors. If this were to happen, residents in the Tokyo metropolitan area would be forced to evacuate.
Former Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Sumio Mabuchi, who was appointed to the post of then Prime Minister Naoto Kan’s advisor on the nuclear disaster immediately after its outbreak, proposed the injection of concrete from below the No. 4 reactor to the bottom of the storage pool, Chernobyl-style.
***
“Because sea water was being pumped into the reactor, the soundness of the structure (concrete corrosion and deterioration) was questionable. There also were doubts about the calculations made on earthquake resistance as well,” said one government source familiar with what took place at the time. “[F]uel rod removal will take three years. Will the structure remain standing for that long?
Asahi noted last month that - if Unit 4 pool gets a crack from an earthquake and leaks, it would be the end for Tokyo.
Kevin Kamps said last month:
Unit 4 storage pool… The entire building is listing including the pool. What they have is steel jacks underneath the pool to try to keep the floor from falling out or the pool from flipping over.
If that cooling water supply is lost, it will be just a few hours at most before that waste is on fire. 135 tons outside of any radioactive containment. They would be direct releases into the environment. 100% of cesium-137 could be released to the environment.
Former U.N. adviser Akio Matsumura - whose praises have been sung by Mikhail Gorbachev, U.S. Ambassadors Stephen Bosworth and Glenn Olds, and former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State and Goldman Sachs co-chair John C. Whitehead - notes:
The unit suffered enormous damage during the tsunami—a hydrogen explosion blew the roof off, leaving the highly radioactive fuel pool exposed to the open air. If another high level earthquake hits the area, the building will certainly collapse. Japanese and American meteorologists have predicted that such a strong earthquake is indeed likely to hit this year.
The meltdown and unprecedented release of radiation that would ensue is the worst case scenario that then-Prime Minister Kan and other former officials have discussed in the past months. He warned during his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos that such an accident would force the evacuation of the 35 million people in Tokyo, close half of Japan and compromise the nation’s sovereignty. Such a humanitarian and environmental catastrophe is unimaginable. Hiroshi Tasaka, a nuclear engineer and special adviser to Prime Minister Kan immediately following the crisis, said the crisis “just opened Pandora’s Box.”
The current Japanese government has not yet mentioned the looming disaster, ostensibly to not incite panic in the public. Nevertheless, action must be taken quickly. This website over the last year has published a running commentary from scientists explaining why Reactor 4 must be stabilized immediately, who might be able to accomplish such a task, and why the situation has largely gone unnoticed. We believe an independent, international team of structural engineers and other advisers must be assembled and deployed immediately. Mounting public pressure would force the Japanese government to take action. We hope these resources are helpful in educating the public about the crisis that we face.
As the eminent German physicist Dr. Hans-Peter Durr said ten months ago, if the spent fuel pool spills, we will be in a situation where science never imagined we could be.
Matsumura was told that if the fuel pool at unit 4 collapses or the water spills out, so much radiation will spew out for 50 years that no one will be able to approach Fukushima:
Even more dramatically, Matsumura writes:
Japan’s former Ambassador to Switzerland, Mr. Mitsuhei Murata, was invited to speak at the Public Hearing of the Budgetary Committee of the House of Councilors on March 22, 2012, on the Fukushima nuclear power plants accident. Before the Committee, Ambassador Murata strongly stated that if the crippled building of reactor unit 4—with 1,535 fuel rods in the spent fuel pool 100 feet (30 meters) above the ground—collapses, not only will it cause a shutdown of all six reactors but will also affect the common spent fuel pool containing 6,375 fuel rods, located some 50 meters from reactor 4. In both cases the radioactive rods are not protected by a containment vessel; dangerously, they are open to the air. This would certainly cause a global catastrophe like we have never before experienced. He stressed that the responsibility of Japan to the rest of the world is immeasurable. Such a catastrophe would affect us all for centuries. Ambassador Murata informed us that the total numbers of the spent fuel rods at the Fukushima Daiichi site excluding the rods in the pressure vessel is 11,421 (396+615+566+1,535+994+940+6375).
I asked top spent-fuel pools expert Mr. Robert Alvarez, former Senior Policy Adviser to the Secretary and Deputy Assistant Secretary for National Security and the Environment at the U.S. Department of Energy, for an explanation of the potential impact of the 11,421 rods.
I received an astounding response from Mr. Alvarez [updated 4/5/12]:
In recent times, more information about the spent fuel situation at the Fukushima-Dai-Ichi site has become known. It is my understanding that of the 1,532 spent fuel assemblies in reactor No. 304 assemblies are fresh and unirradiated. This then leaves 1,231 irradiated spent fuel rods in pool No. 4, which contain roughly 37 million curies (~1.4E+18 Becquerel) of long-lived radioactivity. The No. 4 pool is about 100 feet above ground, is structurally damaged and is exposed to the open elements. If an earthquake or other event were to cause this pool to drain this could result in a catastrophic radiological fire involving nearly 10 times the amount of Cs-137 released by the Chernobyl accident.
The infrastructure to safely remove this material was destroyed as it was at the other three reactors. Spent reactor fuel cannot be simply lifted into the air by a crane as if it were routine cargo. In order to prevent severe radiation exposures, fires and possible explosions, it must be transferred at all times in water and heavily shielded structures into dry casks.. As this has never been done before, the removal of the spent fuel from the pools at the damaged Fukushima-Dai-Ichi reactors will require a major and time-consuming re-construction effort and will be charting in unknown waters. Despite the enormous destruction cased at the Da–Ichi site, dry casks holding a smaller amount of spent fuel appear to be unscathed.
Based on U.S. Energy Department data, assuming a total of 11,138 spent fuel assemblies are being stored at the Dai-Ichi site, nearly all, which is in pools. They contain roughly 336 million curies (~1.2 E+19 Bq) of long-lived radioactivity. About 134 million curies is Cesium-137 — roughly 85 times the amount of Cs-137 released at the Chernobyl accident as estimated by the U.S. National Council on Radiation Protection (NCRP). The total spent reactor fuel inventory at the Fukushima-Daichi site contains nearly half of the total amount of Cs-137 estimated by the NCRP to have been released by all atmospheric nuclear weapons testing, Chernobyl, and world-wide reprocessing plants (~270 million curies or ~9.9 E+18 Becquerel).
It is important for the public to understand that reactors that have been operating for decades, such as those at the Fukushima-Dai-Ichi site have generated some of the largest concentrations of radioactivity on the planet.
Many of our readers might find it difficult to appreciate the actual meaning of the figure, yet we can grasp what 85 times more Cesium-137 than the Chernobyl would mean. It would destroy the world environment and our civilization. This is not rocket science, nor does it connect to the pugilistic debate over nuclear power plants. This is an issue of human survival.
There was a Nuclear Security Summit Conference in Seoul on March 26 and 27, and Ambassador Murata and I made a concerted effort to find someone to inform the participants from 54 nations of the potential global catastrophe of reactor unit 4. We asked several participants to share the idea of an Independent Assessment team comprised of a broad group of international experts to deal with this urgent issue.
I would like to introduce Ambassador Murata’s letter to the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to convey this urgent message and also his letter to Japan’s Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda for Japanese readers. He emphasized in the statement that we should bring human wisdom to tackle this unprecedented challenge.
Ambassador Murata’s letter says:
It is no exaggeration to say that the fate of Japan and the whole world depends on NO.4 reactor. This is confirmed by most reliable experts like Dr. Arnie Gundersen or Dr. Fumiaki Koide.
Anti-nuclear physician Dr. Helen Caldicott says that if fuel pool 4 collapses, she will evacuate her family from Boston and move them to the Southern Hemisphere. This is an especially dramatic statement given that the West Coast is much more directly in the path of Fukushima radiation than the East Coast.
Will humanity rise to the occasion, and figure out how to stabilize fuel pool number 4 before catastrophe strikes?
Or will modern civilization win a Darwin award for failing to pay attention to the real threats?
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"it's also likely a private entity wouldn't have created the problem we need saving from to begin with."
Logic fail; you can look at how this wasn't a decision made by Japan, but rather by GE, after WWII, to support their budding business.
Factual fail: EBR-I was commissioned in 1951 and was operated by the US DOE. Fukushima was commissioned in 1971.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-16/ge-s-1-billion-in-nuclear-sales...
I am afraid that our friends at GE and Hitachi still have an interest in all of this...and they have not even written off the division yet...f'ing government making these people work in this industry.
You've completely missed the point that it was government which developed nuclear power in the first place. Why can't you simply recognize that historical fact rather than resort to self righteous snarkiness?
While a private corporation built and managed the plant, it had to adhere to desperately poor minimum requirements which were set by government.
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Waooo, that is good US citizenism.
The private firm had to adhere to desperately poor minimum requirements.
Impressive.
Minimum requirement: do not cross the line or you business is forbidden.
Hey, it reads like maximum requirement but this is US citizenism so who cares?
Hey slick - do you ever post anything with any intellectual content or substance? I mean - I commend you for playing in English in this sandbox - but howsabout some well thought out critiques or something.
Oh, and Dude - if you are in China - I have bad news for you. Your leaders are taking a lot of money and turning your country into a shithole. Right now you are the easiest sewer - good luck with that for the future - and your child's future (that would be one child).
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Once again, AnAnonymous is spending Saturday in his neighborhood wifi hotspot opium parlor, toasting his brain and singing praises to the glory of US citizenism.
One wonders if he dresses up in his Uncle Sam costume for his trip to the parlor, and if he smokes his opium from a Statue of Liberty hookah.
On Monday, he won't remember any of the weekend's events.
In a truly capitalistic system, nuclear power plants would not exist.
To be profitable, governments limited the nuclear industries risk liability. Without that limited liability, the nuclear industry would never have been financially viable.
This is not any version of capitalism I am aware of, other than crony capitalism, and the biggest crony at the trough has been GE.
Has a "truly capitalistic system" of your definition ever existed? If so, where and when?
Are we talking about the grand old days before Theodore Roosevelt broke up the Trusts? Railroad land grabs? England taking over India?
Capitalism breeds crony capitalism. The only thing that prevents it is the light of truth and honesty - two qualities that are present in people - not in economic systems. Unfortunately those qualities are currently out of fashion in our "greed is good" "I got mine - you get yours" society.
sure there are totally free market societies - you can do whatever you can pay off in Mexico, Somalia, etc.
Have you given all your money to the billions of people in the world with less than you? If not please explain why you're such a self righteous hypocrite.
I like your post, which to me begs the question, should private companies be trusted with technologies so dangerous as to pose a threat to the existence of Humankind and all animal life on Earth?
Certainly in the U.S. we've swept the problem of nuclear waste disposal under the rug since the dawn of the nuclear age. We can't even agree on where to stash the spent fuel in the meantime, which is why we have vast stores of spend rods minutes from major population centers.
It's way past time to get real on this subject, and certainly not to allow any additional nuke plants with on-site spent fuel storage to be built.
Wasn't it the government that let the nuclear genie out of the bottle?
Yeah - they were wrapped up in winning a war or something like that...
They really didn't know what they were doing - empowering those theoretical physicists.
After the war - they (government) were hung up on defeating the godless commies and cheap energy plus useful byproducts seemed like a good idea. Spreading it to the various "allies" seemed even better...
So, you are right government f_cked up again. We should have just lost...
So the DOE began commissioning experimental reactors in 1951 in order to win a war that had been over for six years? Can you try to support your point without resorting to scenarios which involve time travel?
"After the war - they (government) were hung up on defeating the godless commies and cheap energy plus useful byproducts seemed like a good idea"
Notice he says After the War. It seems reasonable the next part about defeating the godless commies is the Cold War.
I like your post, which to me begs the question, should private companies be trusted with technologies so dangerous as to pose a threat to the existence of Humankind and all animal life on Earth?
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Because they do not threat the existence of Humankind and all human life on Earth.
Meaning that while they will kill a lot of people, they wont terminate humanity.
And that will open US citizen business style opportunities, like making money out of the distressed people who are going to eat some nuclear dust for some time.
US citizenism is all situational, either on the good side of the fence or the wrong.
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How profound you must think you are, the great Chinese citizenism philosopher.
You won't remember a word of it when your brain emerges from the haze of opium intoxication.
Ah, but who supplied him the opium?
For this we must investigate the eternal nature of British citizenism.
Tepco is a publicly owned power company. It delivered electric power to the public at a reasonable charge.
Expecting that some Hugo Chavez style government run operation would have done better is nonsense. Hey, maybe you consider the Volt as a success? What entity owned that simple highway bridge which collapsed?
Publicly owned ='s private ownership yes?
Stockholders??? Dividends??? Yield??? Profits???
Help me out here - perhaps I don't know what a private enterprise is.
I never said that a Hugo Chavez government entity was a better operator - merely that there is no market for clean-up of a nuclear disaster. So, who exactly is going to fix this mess?
Of course there is. If the people of Japan and the West Coast felt that their lives were in danger then they would be willing to fund a privately organized clean up effort. There are individuals who would be willing to clean up Fukushima for a price. There are entrepreneurs who would be willing to organize such a venture in order to profit.
But can you see any government letting that happen? The US government wouldn't even let private citizens help rescue people during Katrina. Can you imagine any government giving a private entity free rein to clean up after a nuclear disaster? Maybe that simple reality is why you don't see anyone trying to organize a free market clean up of Fukushima.
I will bet you think those entrepeneurs will be digging in and sorting out those fuel rods themselves in person - y'know gritty American Capitalist know how - lead by example, pull yourself up by the bootstraps and all that...right?
Listen - if the people in Japan or the West coast knew that they were in extreme danger - most of them would be looking to sue somebody and get rich in the legal lottery.
3 Mile Island is still available for cleanup...people in PA are really missing an opportunity to fund the pioneer of a new industry. Hell, there is a whole town and surrounding land available in Russia as well.
So is Simi Valley
Are you insane? Of course the entrepreneurs won't be sorting rods. There's this thing called division of labor which is necessary for any economy beyond the hunter-gatherer stage. Why don't you try to understand how markets work instead of starting with the premise that somebody somewhere along the line will voluntarily agree to a transaction which will net them a greater profit than someone else's voluntary transaction has netted them.
It's entirely disingenuous to suggest that because you see the market as inherently immoral that there are no market solutions at all.
Notice that since 1979 no new nuke plants have been started by capitalistic companies. The gov't push civilian nuclear power during the 1950's, 1960s and 1970s, the US gov't also pushed Civilian nukes overseas.
Note that the majority of nuke plants are in socialist states:
1. France
2. Japan (yes Japan is a socialist state - and one party state to boot - is really pseudo communism)
3. former communist block states (Russia and former SU republic states)
4. China (who is now building the most new nuke plants).
These are the countries that had not most state/central planning.
Your argument holds no water.
True capitistist companies wouldn't touch Nuker power because it has too many liabilities. On corporate board would choose to seek that much liability, and nuke plants are very expensive to operate. Most private power companies are building NatGas turbines because they 1. have a very small footprint (land), 2. are cheap to build and operate, 3. do not require extensive amounts of water to operate.
check out a map of world wide plants then review your comments.
433 reactors online, 102 reactors in US (socialist state)
another 944 are proposed world wide
nuke plants are about nuke weapons. otherwise thorium reactors would have been chosen, if at all.
they are pushed overseas to drive huge debts and corruption on 2nd/3rd world countries.......
Duh! You obvious lack the capacity to read. If you read the post I was responding to, about the claim that Nukes are only built in capitalist states you would have a clue!
Wow - you didn't just take the little red pill - you swallowed the bottle.
The plants were mostly built in the 60's - nuclear powered plants were projected to be immensely profitable then and still be retired at like 30 years. It was even more profitable to run for 40. Yet, even more profitable to skimp on maintenance - disposal of waste - etc.
Here we go again - define "true capitistist" (sic) - like the kind that make as much money as they can and get the hell out of Dodge before the walls collapse?
Tepco is private ? Huh, that point must have escped me- can any industry that is so regulated as to be effectively part of the government, be capitalistic ?
No.
You need to bone up on your definition of capitalism.
If you own a shovel, but I stand with a loaded gun pointed at you and command you to dig on pain of death, are you free ?
If the nuke industry wants to be all free and capitalist and stuff, it can start to carry its own water by chipping in on the cleanup of some of these disasters. Remember when they cleaned up Three Mile Island? Yeah, right, they didn't, they just closed the door on the big containment building and hoped for the best. Fortunately it was a small incident by meltdown standards.
Only with massive government subsidies can such a ponderously large industry exist in the first place.
From that source of all wisdom and CIA editorial - Wikipedia
Corporate overviewReally - so the government gives you a virtual monopoly - but because they gave it to you - you are not a capitalist? I suppose that the bozos in my area Exelon - aka ComEd are not capitalists?
Let's see - Government Granted Monopoly - check
Shareholders - check
Profit Incentive - check
Regulated - check (well kind of - since our state and federal government is "captured" as well).
I have no idea what your definition of capitalism is - but mine is: private ownership of the means of production for profit.
What is yours?
As for my freedom - we all make compromises with the world/system we live in - in order to achieve our goals. Those who are most free wear the world like a loose cloak... (co-opting a great thought).
What is yours?
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One well fitting to many usages definition:
if I do not get my fair share of the loot, that is not capitalism.
Nothing of value to see here, just more opium-addled Chinese citizenism hypocricy.
No Recycling Allowed
Then there’s nuclear "waste". Nuclear fuel rods are about 3% uranium-235 when they go into a light-water reactor. They quit producing energy when they are roughly 1% uranium, 1% plutonium, and 1% radioactive elements like strontium-90 and cobalt-60.
In other countries the rods are removed from the reactor, the uranium and plutonium are recycled into new fuel rods, and the other radioactive elements are used by industry for various purposes. Excess non-fissionable isotopes can be mixed with Pyrex glass and made back into radioactive "rocks"… which, after all, is what uranium ore is in the first place.
But in the US, no nuclear recycling is allowed because of Carter-era regulations. Used but radioactive nuclear fuel rods must stay in open ponds outside the reactors just in case terrorists might need some. Thus the US has a "nuclear waste problem", while other nations do not.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/walker/walker42.1.html
Well crap, looks like the world will end before I die of natural causes. I have survived global warming, sea level rise, the increased number and intensity of hurricanes, blizzards, volcanos, tornados, earthquakes, asteroid strikes, bird flu, pink slime, terrorists, and Obama only to be wiped out by a runaway nuke. Now if it only affects Japan and the west coast of the US I have to ask, what is the problem with that? That means I've still got a chance to make it until the grim reaper calls to tell me my time is up. Meanwhile, just in case I make it a while longer, think I'll keep stacking.
The family members of those that designed it must suit up. Can't let those genes propogate.
Lack of money is the only world ending event in the minds of TPTB. Nothing will be fixed because it will cost them too much money.
Hell, they already pay most of the taxes, I hear.
The hoi polloi should be grateful for what they get.
Blame over-regulation.
Lady Snowblood Saturdays, Radiated Bitchez!!
http://youtu.be/cJJ_dcbPduc
Kill Bill vol.1 Anime Scene
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sw7lNC06O8s
They're in a holding pattern until death strikes them. Finances, and homgenous population issues aside, that is why no one in their right mind would want to immigrate there.
Never let kids play with matches or nuclear fusion - bad things will happen.....
But this is very bullish, isn't it?
"Disaster Capitalism" par excellence!
http://www.naomiklein.org/shock-doctrine/reviews/time-magazine-disaster-capitalism
I have a plan for a new super nuclear plant. It will be 110 stories high. As high as the WTC. Spent rods, MOX and whatever will be stored on-site on floors 100-110. The building will be sheathed in spray-on nano-zirconium. Nano-zirconium hasnt been invented, yet, but I feel confident it'll be there when we need it. I won't build it in NYC. I'll build it in SF, because all new, exciting things start in CA. There will be a windmill on the roof for all you eco-freaks. I wouldn't want to be labeled an "eco-racist".
Where did I leave my meds?
http://26.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m1x4khocIu1qcx1tdo1_500.jpg
The word "externality" comes to mind.
As does the word "transitory", as in "human life is transitory in a plutonium enriched environment".
typically, the response of government is to ignore the
source of the problem and enact law to confiscate everything
so it can all be either flushed down the drain pipe or
redistributed to the most inside of insiders, depending on
the quality and extent of contamination of said confiscated
resources.
leadership says "we will get some popcorn and see what we can
confiscate as this thing plays out", all for the good of the
children. but, to where will we be relocated? where?
that is the problem so they may just need to address the source
of the problem immediately this time? either that or the popcorn
leadership option.
The penchant for using emergencies to pass a slew of laws that restrict but do not help is a cottage industry. The exception is now the rule. We see it in Japan where an enormous tsunami scored a direct hit on a nuclear power plant. (I can imagine the rules and regulations if a tornado struck DC or NYC.) We see it in each MSM popular plane/railroad/mining accident when Congress passes a bunch of new laws in a NY second. We even see it in the Trayvon case where a random shooting is held to be the norm when the very opposite is true.