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The Tale of Two Charts: Can the Central Planners Pull It Off?

CrownThomas's picture




 

As we enter another earnings season, volume has been light, but the S&P is up ~8% YTD. So, are we in the middle of a centrally planned bull market or not?

As the sides lay out their arguments, and the Fed trots out talking heads to constantly contradict each other & baffle the market with bullshit, there are two charts that are worth taking a look at.

The first is a chart showing analyst EPS estimate revisions, along with the S&P 500 20 day moving average. This is what the central planners are trying to keep going. As you can see, the S&P has been ticking up since its 2011 low, and for the first time since mid-2011, analysts have revised their EPS estimates upward into positive territory. Is this the bullish indicator CNBC has long been waiting for? (ok, outside of everything pisani can spin as bullish for equities).

 

The second chart, as ZH elaborated on earlier today, is the piece of the puzzle that Bernanke can't quite figure out. The central planners are desperately trying to get the retail investor to believe that the water is warm, jump on in -- if they can somehow keep the market inflated for just a little bit longer perhaps the ponzi can continue. This chart shows that investors still are not buying what the Bernank is selling, and retail funds continue to exit equities, and much to Goldman's chagrin, head into bonds.

 

So, which is it? Are we in the midst of an epic bull run, or an epic run of bull shit. Place your bets.

 

Charts: Bloomberg / Sara Eisen & Zero Hedge

 

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Thu, 04/12/2012 - 06:49 | 2337086 gookempucky
gookempucky's picture

Had to green ya element.

But seriously I cannot wait for the kill zones swap , as betting on death would be a great way to bring in viewership--possible start areas--detroit-dc-oakland-iran----- oh wait, that has already begun....

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-16/death-derivatives-emerge-from-pension-risks-of-living-too-long.html

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 12:23 | 2931678 smartmil
smartmil's picture

Irrigating your sinuses is anyway a very good idea as it helps to take away mucous and harmful germs and bacteria from your nose. Please do not stop doing it because of neti pot death rumors. You can’t deny that it’s considerably cheaper than purchasing and taking nasal steroids.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 06:14 | 2337065 Element
Element's picture

Umm, sorry, just wondering when the fabulous, desperate and altogether-goofy US Debt-Ceiling  Wall-'O-Default  Fall European Tour and it's assorted ornery US 'Leadership' shit-fight support-act, gets rolling again?

Like in a few months, isn't it?

How quickly we forget, this living within a Homer Simpson version of the universe. 

Now it's green-shoots and 'record' squiggly lines.

But ... the iceberg approacheth.

Happy down-grade kids.

 

PS:  I'll be going with, "epic run of bull shit", thanks ... now where's that animated GIF of HFT activity got to?

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 07:45 | 2337158 i-dog
i-dog's picture

I believe that circus is not scheduled to visit the Crime Capitol until September -- the Fall[ing over] Surprise 'Whooda Thunkit [Again]' Show  -- featuring:

  • Ben "the Bearded Lady" Bernank and Timmaaay the Dwarf, as the jugglers
  • Jesuit John "My Back Hurts" Boehner, as the ringmaster
  • "Frankly Frankist" Cantor and Nancy "I'm too old for this shit" Pelosi on the trapeze
  • McCarthy and Stoyer whipping the hapless pussies, errm, fat cats
  • and a supporting cast of more than 500 clowns, plus an elephant and a donkey!!
  • The magician, Hussein "My handicap is me" Obomber, may take a break from holidays to appear.

Roll up, roll up ... SNAP yer tickets up while they're still cheap!

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 05:56 | 2337063 fourchan
fourchan's picture

pennys from heaven

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 01:59 | 2336945 skepticCarl
skepticCarl's picture

The first chart is very interesting.  It's the first time that I have seen Citi's change in earning revisions. The implied correlation seems quite strong.  Pundits like Rosenberg and Schiller think that earnings will be revised downward, and this suggests a falling market.  Probably right.

THe second chart is useless.  The small, mutual fund investor has been getting out of MF's for years, and that investor is reactionary to market pullbacks, not causing them.  Also, the mutual fund investors may be switching to ETF's, which are still growing.  Finally, the effect of the small investor is neglibigle compared to pension funds, investment banks, endowments, and all of the other big money.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 01:36 | 2336927 chump666
chump666's picture

 ECB and Yellend/Fed are ice-skating uphill again.  But they got markets bid.  How long?  Who knows.  I thinking the market will flush out hard till we get the Aug lows. 

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 00:56 | 2336902 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i'll put two joints on: bullshit

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 23:54 | 2336828 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

Shit... and what are you going to replace him with? Rommey and the GOP....  Obama and Rommey are two sides of the same coin. 

Ron Paul, good luck with that one. (and I like RP).

For Romeny to win he has to get the vote of women, which means he will have to soften his stance on the "GOP war on women", not going to happen,

http://www.salon.com/2012/04/10/the_biggest_gender_gap_ever/

Have you read the Paul Ryan bill that passed the House.... "if the illness doesn't kill us, the cure will".....

http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/112/hconres112/text

Impeach Obama...... ROTFLMAO

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 00:32 | 2336879 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

I have difficulty taking Salon seriously on anything, but Romney has an even bigger problem then women; he is going to struggle getting votes among right wing white males. His support is centered in areas the repubs arent going to get anyhow, and a growing number on the right outside those areas are compeletely sick of the gutless and useless Romney/Dole/McCain/Bush establishment types. He is going to get creamed.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 02:03 | 2336949 skepticCarl
skepticCarl's picture

And I have difficulty taking seriously any poster who doesn't know the difference between the adverb "then" and the comparative "than".

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 12:30 | 2338385 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

Touche, I screwed up posting in the middle of the night which is my own fault.

The fact that youre pedantic enough to bother with correcting it and have nothing substantive in any direction doesnt say much for you though.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 23:10 | 2336760 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Impeach Obama.

Narrarated by Shawn Stone.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 23:05 | 2336755 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

John Williams, of Shadowstats, notes that manipulated government statistics are not changing the fact that the true SGS Unemployment Measure now sits at a staggering 22.2%. Williams also demonstrates that despite the hype from Wall Street about a recovery, parts of the economy remain collapsed. Here is what Williams had to say about the situation: Adding the SGS estimate of excluded long-term discouraged workers back into the total unemployed and labor force, unemployment—more in line with common experience as estimated by the SGS-Alternate Unemployment Measure—notched lower to 22.2% in March from 22.4% in February.

Sounds about right.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 22:59 | 2336746 Mudduckk
Mudduckk's picture

I'll take Bull Shit for 800 Alex.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 22:04 | 2336676 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

I want to place a bet that someone will throw a few gallons of petrol over Bernanke and set the fucker on fire before 2014!

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