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More of the Same in the Lowlands
I thought I'd post an entirely useless article for all you busy folk. Yes, it's about that country about half the size of an Istanbul or New York. Or whatever the exact proportion is. So sorry to bother those who expect more insight from the articles on this site.
I've been busy getting my garden allotment up and running, so that's part of my answer to what's going on ALL around us. I don't give a flying about making the best timed trade in gold and think there are other productive things to do with my life. Sorry to be the contrarian on a contrarian site and being so trite.
I don't know what to write, I don't do this for a living. So why am I on the site? Again, same answer. I just want to talk about a piddly little country that has always had to fight for every alliance to keep it from being wiped out.
And that means it is working hard on the German alliance right now, that should be clear. Whether the Germans will stab us in the back and bring those truckfulls of DMs to the light of day is a serious question I hope we're not gullible enough to ignore. Once in a while there's talk of transfers however no more serious talk about eurobonds. This as the death ball of financial market speculation picks off one lame duck after another. The Germans are not going to be opening up their wallets to buy an extra vacation so the other euro partners have a tiny chance to stave off collapse. They've shifted their focus by dumping their top rated gear on the rest of the world. But it is generally acknowledged by the political elite that the euro breaking are rantings by paranoid and insane attention grabbers. Until it happens. Kind of reminds me how those who warned of what might happen and did happen in the fall of 2008 were treated. So we're doomed to go through another black swan crisis unprepared with plenty of mistakes when the lights go out and we don't have an action plan. OK, there might be a miracle and the euro is saved. I don't want to claim I can see into the future.
So I don't have many insights for you. I'm writing to vent my spleen. Thanks Tylers.
So the political situation is in limbo. We have no idea what the budget compromise is going to be, it keeps getting delayed. There's a good chance foreign aid is going to be cut as a little sweetener for the PVV to justify it's own volk wearing the ever tightening hairshirt. There's almost no chance for a rational approach to mortgage interest rebates.
See that's this country's worst kept secret. We have the highest per capita mortgage debt and no walking away from your mortgage by mailing the keys. Sorry to repeat myself. The 'solutions' to this imbalance are to reintroduce higher guaranteed mortgages, allow dual earners to borrow more so they can 'afford' a house that would more reasonably fit their needs, keep the transfer tax on home purchases at the low 2 per cent which hasn't been able to restart the housing market since it started decelerating. So money is sucked out of the rest of the economy to start the housing market back up to stimulate the rest of the economy. Yes, that's the policy that is going to have to save us apparently. Sounds like a plan to keep banks solvent at all cost. There's lots more to be entirely cynical about.
The 'social work' system is being torn down because it's cheaper to send the assembly work to Poland and China. Those with disabilities have proven themselves, or will have to prove themselves because what once seemed to work well by keeping the disabled in secure and productive jobs now can't be afforded anymore. They are fit for the regular labour market, with far less encouragement for businesses to take them on. Because we like to blame the individual for not trying hard enough, for this unique system creating false price signals etc. And where does it all leave investment and jobs for the generation that is supposed to afford the houses that so many others are dying to unload so they don't have a residual debt after they sell? Well, maybe a priority should be made for the young, those who are the promise for the future, at least we have to believe they are, so they can afford those gold bricked houses.
And then there's the report on the period of the depth of the financial crisis, and the mistakes made there. I'd like to come up with a bit less vitriol and a bit more analysis of that for a later article. Or maybe not. And it might not warrant an article, not sure. But as my concentration can move from Owner's Association duties and gardening and plenty of other things, I may write something insightful on that that might at least be considered not a complete waste of time for you cutting edge financial crisis folk. And I'm one, I admit. Sometimes I just have to step back and have a fresh look at things, because the focus of my series is a bit beside the point anyway.
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I have to ask because I have never heard the term and am curious- what is a "garden allotment"?
Mine is a plot of land of 100 square metres where I recently started gardening. It is great, you get your know-it-alls but most are helpful, interesting and have something to share. I'm going back to the land, if you know what I mean, where I belong. My inner struggle has always been, as a trained economist, to discover to what degree I have become a sociopathic homo economics.
Well, Im glad to hear it and strongly recommend it sir! I know exactly what you mean, I grow a fair amount of food myself. My backyard plot is about 1000 square meters or so and I grow on some other land also in a sharecropping arrangement for a person with a physical disability. I think you will find that what you grow yourself is not only personally satisfying but also tastes much better then what you get in the store. I will be harvesting the first of my early crop this year tomorrow, I expect to get a few gallons of fresh sugar snaps. (Sorry folks, my apologies- I know this is a financial/economics site but Im a small market grower on the side and just cant help myself on vegetable gardening).
Is this land part of your yard at home, or is there some system in your country where public or community land can be used by people such as yourself to grow? Your use of "allotment" makes me wonder if it is public land in some way.
I gave it a fiver because at least you said in the opening sentence that it was an entirely useless article. So those who complained about it should have stopped reading after the first sentence. I don't have a thing to do with hi-faluting finance, and thus articles like this interest me more than all the financial blablabla articles, some of which I read for education purposes, not because I ever intend to work in the field.
I stumbled onto the Hedge in 07/08 when TSWHTF. It seemed like a good place to get news on the happenings and goings-on, more so than a lot of the other sites. So keep posting useless stuff, I'll read it. ;-)
Inter dominum et servum nulla amicitia
UndertheRadar has too few economic news and analysis and a little too much getob (rambling personal introspection going nowhere). I would find it more interesting to learn how come 25% of commercial real-estate can be empty without leading to falling prices, why there are so many "store" properties that are empty or churning , but it never seems any of the owners are being forced by circumstances to lower the rent, making business establishments a lot more viable. How about detailing how the government has forced all the housing corporations to borrow their capital (the largest component in housing costs) in the financial markets instead of from the state as used to be the case. Or why housing corporations always talk about selling their housing inventory, but barely execute on their announcements. Or what the balance sheets of Dutch banks mean in proportion to national income. Seems to me there is a lot more to bring up than useless rambling. Or some analysis of recent pronouncements by the central bank governor claiming that we do not produce enough, and in order to encourage hiring we have to encourage firing!
Yes, I can explain how extend and pretend works the same as anywhere else. This is the extend and pretend game worldwide, an opacity that is going to lead to massive ricocheting and collapse once the game is up. My point is to engage an audience from one side of the pond with the other. And the rambling is in response to comments earlier, the free nature of what I get to write here because I don't write for a professional publication, encouraging more people to join in with blogs here because it's that easy. You are entirely justified in knocking me down and adding important details, because it's the thing that's done or necessary or whatever, or you could simply add your observations or your questions without the personal stuff yourself. The more good humour and interesting stuff that comes up, the richer things get. At the end of the day, I explained my intentions to Tyler and he has not once tried to direct me in 'more productive' pursuits.
undertheradar - Yes, there's room for all sorts of articles on ZeroHedge, from serious in-depth analysis to blow-off-steam rants, to humor, and to ?.
I like the navel-gazing, day dreaming, stream of consciousness articles. And that is why I want to order a dozen tulips from the Lowlands to take to a proper Irish wake for the Euro, a la James Joyce's Finnegans Wake:
"The fall (bababadalgharaghtakamminarronnkonnbronntonnerronntuonnthunntrovarrhounawnskawntoohoohoordenenthur-nuk!) of a once wallstrait oldparr is retaled early in bed and later on life down through all christian minstrelsy. The great fall of the offwall entailed at such short notice the pftjschute of Finnegan, erse solid man, that the humptyhillhead of humself prumptly sends an unquiring one well to the west in quest of his tumptytumtoes: and their upturnpikepointandplace is at the knock out in the park where oranges have been laid to rust upon the green since devlinsfirst loved livvy."
While I can see your angst...
"See that's this country's worst kept secret. We have the highest per capita mortgage debt and no walking away from your mortgage by mailing the keys. Sorry to repeat myself.
The 'solutions' to this imbalance are to reintroduce higher guaranteed mortgages, allow dual earners to borrow more so they can 'afford' a house that would more reasonably fit their needs, keep the transfer tax on home purchases at the low 2 per cent which hasn't been able to restart the housing market since it started decelerating."
More debt? Really? Has anyone ever tried just mailing in their keys?...what are they gonna do lock you up in debtors prison?...lol.
Really...this is fascinating...the Dutch are not "allowed" to bankrupt?
It's a subtle difference, yes. Not sure exactly how it affects things on the margin actually, I think I read an article on one person's point of view. Once again, these are broad strokes that are intended also to point out differences with other systems, give the essence of gains and sacrifices. The depths can be plumbed later. Because it's been a while since I read up on this stuff, I'm not going to draw any conclusions. But it adds complications and unique dynamics (freezing up, prices not coming down as fast as other countries) to the market for sure. Though a broken housing market is a broken housing market at the end of the day and is a long slog.
Thanks for the reply...and I gave it fiver for being genuine from the start.
"Once again, these are broad strokes that are intended also to point out differences with other systems, give the essence of gains and sacrifices. The depths can be plumbed later."
Well, of course thats where I was at.
My school of thought is somewhat archiac to modern times I suppose. I subscribe to the notion that a bird in a guilded cage is still a caged bird...all the comforts, but still a prisoner.
Look forward to your next...its a rough crowd here and I commend you for laying it out ;-)
nmewn,probably in every debt swamped zombie economy, after a black swan erases a whole lot of capital and everything stops, I suppose the result will be like musical chairs, anyone who has a chair(they occupy a home, underwater or 90% paid off) gets to stay in that chair, regardless who owns it on paper. No government can evict the whole citizenry. So the trick will be to "own" a home before the music stops, but NOT own the counterparties that hold that debt, and NOT have any monies deposited with them.
Just one thought on how to be invested the day before the singularity day.
"No government can evict the whole citizenry."
Nor would it seem that they would even want to. As we've seen here in the states, the home falls into disrepair, no "revenue" is collected for garbage, sewer and water. From their stand point, they don't need the added "distraction" of tent cities under interstates teeming with a fuming, hostile people.
"So the trick will be to "own" a home before the music stops, but NOT own the counterparties that hold that debt, and NOT have any monies deposited with them."
In that case you & I are as prepared as we can be. The only dividend paying stock I own was aquired from profit taking, so the capital used is whole. The personal bank account (much like the HFT stock market) is zeroed out every payday. The equity in the home removed years ago to be used for another purpose.
So we await the next move by our grand chess masters ;-)
You talk about the Germans as if they are a monolithic bloc out to screw the rest of Europe. The average German, having been forced to sit tight on wages for nearly a decade, is now watching the rest of Europe demanding to be bailed out after years of boosting salaries to bring themselves closer to pay levels in Germany and the Lowlands, hearing phrases like "You owe it to us for two world wars" and wondering where the leadership plans to get the money, as if they didn't know already who was going to do the paying.
It is truly rich to hear the Dutch claim that Germany is going to stick the knife in their backs, given that the two peoples seem to have the same fears but are unwilling to put a stop to a mutual suicide pact being adopted by the leadership because the people have bought into the false premise that a European Currency Union is more meaningful than a viable, sustainable Europe.
Germans need to learn to ignore the inherited guilt bullshit and just respond with some very simple obscenities.
I will reply to your comment in another article. This for now: Thanks for pointing out a metaphor that may be too highly charged to describe a probable event. Maybe pulls the plug would have been better. The euro has met its master in outsized financial markets with WMD. I think my point is that the leadership does not openly want to discuss the options, because they say the euro is the only sane option? So they are not honest and are leaving their citizens in the dark. Or they believe it themselves. So the confidence game can continue. I think the phrase used here on ZH to keep the system going is rinse and repeat.
I encourage others to start writing on the site. I'd like to see more people coming up with ideas to solve real problems. Is there a more efficient focus for social work under the circumstances? Will the market solution to peak oil be optimal, or can we prod things along with incentives? I like to keep an open mind. The theories are broken, which ones exactly? I know there are better sites to take my discussion like nakedcapitalism, I just felt generally I preferred trying to post here. I like following the discussions following posts on both sites. The comments to my articles can again inspire me to write another post. I don't believe there's a limit to the number of writers this site can handle. They may have to change the ordering of guest posts according to topic or popularity, but that's not interesting to me, I'm just interested in engaging a few people. Nobody has the full story either, but we need ideas.
I have a solution for your underwater housing problem. (Solution that's funny)
The Lottery, sell enough tickets @ 1 euro each to cover the balance of the loan. Problem solved for seller, buyer and banker. Buyer gets a free home with built in equity and seller walks free and banker stops hemorrhage. Can you imagine what that would contribute to the economy.
It is really siimple ... the EU goes back to being a Free Trade Area and Customs Union rather than pretending to be a larger nation-state.
Yep, and I think I've said it before, it's better to go through the grinder sooner rather than later, because the stakes in terms of lost sovereignty and ability to deal with problems such as unemployment keep getting higher. But who would even think of proposing and carrying out the break up with the knowledge that in the very short term, muddling through still seems better.
Groeten uit USSAZ,
I was born in the Netherlands and find the only time when my original country is in the news is when they across another eugenics threshold. I'm saddened that my country continues to place such little value on human life.
What are you whining about? Do you think that euthanasia (passive and sometimes active) is practiced nowhere else? How ignorant you must be. It is just that in many other countries it is furtive and taboo, without open discussion and without peer review. Please post some solid statistics that prove that the Dutch place less value on human life (abortions, executions, malnutrition, poverty among children, preventative medicine, access to medical care, prison populations, crime rates, murder, etc.). While you're at it, please provide some comparative statistics about substance/drug abuse. Try to summon some facts instead of clichéd hearsay.
Yo, Hans, loopt uw windmolen?
Not the greatest article I've ever read but do agree the politicians here are almost as insane as those in the US seem to be. They think the party will never end.
Only flaw in the plan is that the western worlds financial-economic system is totally unsustainable and in fact we are now witnessing the (inevitable) decline of the west. The west peaked in the 1990s and somewhere around 2007-8-9 the decline started and which is now visible for all to see. So how do they keep up the illusion? The return of subprime, allowing the banks to 'reopen the casino', leverage is way up (quite scarily so), they're printing/electronically creating trillions, they are peddling fraudulent unemployment and inflation figures and lending money to the bankster crowd at 0% (but 'we' the peoples do not get to to borrow at 0%).
Myself, as a George Carlin (RIP old f*ck) fan I frequently found myself in 90-99% agreement with what he said. I no longer have a horse in this race, I am an interested bystander watching the carnage unfold, and will admit to being a misanthrope. I do not feel any compassion for people like the Greeks. My sympathy they can only gain if they drag the banksters, politicians and EuroSoviet gauleiters (ie 'trojka') out of their offices to be hanged from the highest trees. And yes, as an armchair warrior I will admit that I personally would likely not partake in such a thing, unless I had nothing to lose. And why should I? Barring some debilitating disease or the governments mailed fist, I'll be one of the last affected when sh*t hits the fan (though inevitably I will be, to some degree).
My recipe for Greece: public hangings for banksters and EuroSoviet gauleiters, default, return to old currency and flipping the bird to the 'financial markets'. Like anyone cares what currency the debt is denominated in when you ain't gonna pay it back.
The EuroSoviet apparatchiks fear this, they know that those countries would be better off out of the Euro, which is why they want to prevent it. Because if one is seen better off, the rest will want to leave as well, collapsing the entire EuroSoviet project.
Western corporations and Western governments are selling out their populace for mammon.
The elderly and the disabled are pushed to the edges and seen as a hindrance.
The young are whipped up into a frenzy of one or another cause under a symbol or flag.
Rights, morals, and ethics are cast aside for the exigency of change, of more, of money, of power.
We have all seen this movie before, just different psychopaths upon the stage acting as "leaders".
Best of luck with the garden this year; about the most sane thing you can do in this insanity.
opgeven, Undertheradar? nee toch? ;-)
Huh?! Wtf STFU lol bm wthwts?
I felt I had to post something since it'd been so long. Like I said, the fingers are starting to itch again and the brain will have the time to write something a bit more substantial and technical on my chosen sub-oceanic area, bank stuff that interests investors might qualify I suppose. But I need to warm up, splash a few quick observations onto the LED canvases out there, see if they resonate.
undertheradar - Any tulips for sale?
I'd like to pre-order a dozen tulips to lay on the grave of the Euro. When the Euro collapses and passes away, there's likely to be huge crowds ordering flowers and other items to lay at the monumental grave memorial commissioned by the EU AUTHORITIES for every EU madame and mussure, herren and damen, signoir and senorita to pay respect to this Grande European Experiment.
Investors? Who are they?
What do they want? More fiat or tangible assets?
There is no recovery. This is a myth propagated by the powers that be, so they may hang onto power a little longer. And wring out the last few dregs of wealth from this cess pool of a broken system.
Housing? What a bitter laugh! The ongoing debt increase by way of monetization will insure currency debasement with the result of devalued currency induced cost push inflation. Housing is caught between higher CPI and high oversupply and is squeezing the price lower, with low market participation, despite record low mortgage rates. As a result more home owners are finding their mortgages under water, adding to the oversupply problem. A vicous circle.
Thanks to ZIRP the insurance companies now earn peanuts on their bond portfolios and have had to raise premiums sharply to make up their liquidity shortfall. Meanwhile the populace undergo asset deflation (housing) while suffering higher consumer prices, especially in the food & energy sectors, as long term unemployment continues at high level. Those that do find work are now entering jobs that pay diddly squat!
What recovery?
So, are you going to euth all your goinks, now that they can't be paid to sort recyclables?
Wasn't one of the socialist bigwigs endorsing the killing of undesireables back in the 20's some crazy Dutchman?
Lowlands - simple, they're opposite the Highlands, the North Sea in between. Tulip mania, that sort of country.
Plenty of!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6R0c6vLCOA
Poland
Pretty close, and lots of Polish people around these parts.
We have pierogi (Polish dumplings) in our markets, too.
Sounds a lot like Belgium to me.
I am perhaps being a bit vague by talking about the Lowlands.
A bit vague altogether.. Gardening, eh?
How about some expose of Uri Rosenthal, the foreign minister or Likud Nederland and the PVV or other "unbreakable bonds".
Wilders/PVV is a likud pawn? I smelled a rat a long time ago but this is a bigger beerput/cesspool than El Al flight 1862 ever was. Good work undertheradar. Keep em coming. Godverdomme.
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I live in upper South Carolina. For me, the lowlands start about Columbia and run down to the Coast.
Understandable confusion, but the big giveaway was the lame duck comment- in SC the only proper use Ive heard for that term is the one still kickin' when the dog brings it back.
Het Platteland!!
pannenkoek
Geography is not an American strong point.
The Netherlands - Holland - the other partner in the ancient late 1700s 'Dutch-American Friendship Treaty' that lets American citizens who want to escape from the US Empire, settle in Holland if they have just a few thousand euros to 'start a business'.
As your note hints, we in the smaller countries of Europe are often just passengers on the big Euro-Bus.
Remember, though, many Americans, the predominant readers of ZeroHedge, often have no clue what life is really like here ... so you can explain some things to an audience for whom it is fresh and new.
Issues in Benelux, as much passion as they might make for us, are overall still pretty minor compared to the sh*t they are going through over there inside the US Empire.
And they have that American Lyndon LaRouche in Virginia USA, who I think still says that it is the 'Anglo-Dutch banking cartel' that is running the world at the moment ... and have been trying to do that ever since the late 1600s, according to LaRouche.
Didn't you see the old New Yorker cover that shows a couple avenues, the Hudson River, and then the rest of the US.
Seriously, if you don't have oil, we have even less reason to give a rat's ass where you are.
Hey I resent that ,anything worth knowing is not an American Strong point.
for most & me too
Geography apparently isn't yours either, since you forgot to tell the Germans where the line was and we had to come sort it out for you.
Twice.
you're so, so welcome, asswipe.
Twice? History does not seem to be your strong suit either. (Holland stayed out of WW1)
The commenter i was replying to is Belgian.
Well played sir.
[golf clap]
+1 for being feisty.