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Down to a Trickle
Down to a Trickle
Courtesy of Bruce Krasting
Some much needed rain is headed to the East Coast for the weekend. The question is, "Will it be enough to end the drought"?
I look after a five-acre pond that’s thirty miles north of NYC. There's not much to it. I keep the sluice clean, maintain the concrete and earth dam, and once every year or so I struggle to get a permit for a few irradiated (sterilized) carp to keep the weeds down (see note below). I’ve been doing this for twenty-five years.
In dry years, the water level has fallen below the sluice a few times, but this has only happened in late summer. So far, 2012 is setting up as an extremely dry year. The overflow of this pond is down to a trickle. The water level will fall below the sluice in a matter of days.
The dry conditions extend past my little pond to most of the East coast. These slides from NOAA show the rainfall over the past 90 and 30 days. Many areas of the country have had 25% (or less) of average rainfall.
It’s not just the USA that is looking at a drought. The UK is dry as a bone:
A contributing factor to the change in rainfall pattern over the past three-months is that the two year long La Nina cycle is ending. ENSO neutral conditions in the Pacific Ocean have been re-established. From the April 16 report from NOAA:
The timing of the sharp reversal of water temperatures in two of the regions of the Pacific where the transition is taking place match the onset of the dry conditions:
The computer models forecast a shift from ENSO neutral conditions to a full El Nino over the next six months:
The record spring heat, the explosion of tornadoes and the below average rainfall have prompted a variety of reports blaming climate change for these occurrences. Maybe, maybe not. If the observable weather patterns are attributable to the change from La Nina to El Nino conditions, then there would be nothing unusual about it at all.
Look at how the Pacific Ocean has flip flopped from La to El conditions over the years:
Notes
My pond is designated as a class B watershed area for NYC’s water supply. As a result, there are many restrictions. (Basically it must stay as it is). No chemicals are permitted, so algae are an issue. Carp eat the green stuff, but if they multiply, they can devour all the vegetation. This would starve the water for oxygen. Hence the need for a permit to get the carp, and the requirement that the fish must be sterilized.
In mid-April the average overflow into the reservoir system is 2m gallons per day (I keep track), enough for 10,000+ people. As of today, that is down to zero. If the dry spell is extended much longer, water restrictions will be imposed on a wide section of the country.
To those NYers who do get some water from this pond, I’m doing my best to keep it clean for you. As far as I can tell, the whole system is pretty good.
There was one time that two deer fell through the ice and drowned. They bloated up and floated for a month. Stank like hell before they sank. That’s part of the mix too…
Drink up!
.
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I've lived on the West Coast near San Francisco for about 50 years, and I can assure you we've never actually had weather patterns like we've had the last two years. The winter months of November through Feb are very dry and cold, and those are the months we usually get almost all our rain. Then it begins raining in March and keeps raining through June, which is very weird, even if summer rain is common elsewhere. I've seen many, many Nino/Nina patterns come and go, but nothing quite like this. Also, I'm not sure why a cold water pattern in the Pacific (Nina) would lead to record hot temperatures on the East Coast during the winter months. I strongly suspect this is not "normal" off/on variation. I think Bruce is saying the transition from cold to warm water causes the temp spike in the East; is that what NOAA is saying?
When I bought in '01 my pond had 5 feet of water in it, the 120ac. of lake in the back had over 25'. By 2004 both were almost completely dry. Hurricanes in '04 and '05 pushed back in about 20% of the original amount of '01. Since the end of '06 neither has had any significant water in them. The western part of this county and the adjoining one have massive amounts of sinkholes that have been forming for the past 5 years, so many that virtually all insurers have pulled out. Lakes all over the region are pretty much grassland now. The large metro area of Tampa/St.Pete mostly pump their water from fields just south of here. 'Rivers' in this area are now muddy 'cricks' and canoeing is actually just a long portage with it being difficult to drink beer and steady a canoe while avoiding snakes making it just a boring walk. The highly taunted Tampa desal plant is still crippled I believe, and wildly over budget. Swiftmud, the state water authority claims huge tracts of family lands for 'conservation' without adequate compensation but can't even fine a golf course that's pumping 150% over it's allotment per day. We're due for rain this weekend. I store about 1500 gallons of runoff for drip irrigation and have swales throughout the property to control runoff and erosion, effectively keeping much of the water/soil on the property and keeping the wooded area dense and green. I primarily practice permaculture. Interesting vid I started watching today: http://www.open.edu/openlearn/whats-on/ou-on-the-bbc-hope-changing-climate
Great link. Thanks.
I listened to my Grandfather(he was a farmer) complain about the weather for decades. Mother Nature is a bitch.
Yes she is, and she really does not give a shit about man's economic theories either.
Even petty bureaucrats have some clue where their bread is buttered.
Uhup... ex director going into business to fix and stabilize sinkholes...........
URETEK Holdings, Inc., a Florida-based company specializing in soil densification and stabilization in the Southeastern US, announces the hiring of former South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) Executive Director Carol Wehle. Carol will join URETEK Holdings to guide business development efforts.
<snark...>
So, they're gonna fill the aquifers they're currently emptying with something more stable?
This should end well.
Golf courses are a necessity, just in case Obama might visit.
We are talkin about Florida here, remember were the "Bright Brother Bush" was the Gov....
Obama might get lynched by the clan if he were to venture into the Florida Cracker country...
W has always been welcome to The Villages, good friend of the Morse Family...
http://www.thevillagesdailysun.com/news/local/article_09028bc0-e3de-11df...
Awfully dry down in the 'swamp' so far this year too. Just waiting for the afternoon pop ups to begin to fill the lakes & ponds back up. We have the distinct advantage of the converging fronts daily during the summer, but man has it been dry so far.
In Washington state we have had a very wet and cold spring so far. Winter was wet also. Typical for here during the El Nina/La Nina cycle, but it sure makes you wish for some sun.
Agreed. North Idaho is wet as a Kardiashian in a Chanel store. Only had one or two days of sun and the locals are sick of the rain. I love every minute of it. Might go snowboarding this Saturday. Only 2 Silver Saturdays left. :( Maybe Dave Smith - worlds largest Dodge dealer (Read stuffed to the gills) may get them to stay open a week or two longer. I'll test drive one for that! Come on dave smith. I bet if you look at Kellogg, ID orthos over the last few years it would tell a dealer stuffing story for the likes of, well, us fools on ZH!
And that, my friend, is why we chlorinate our water.
don't panic
don't panic
Don't Panic
DON'T PANIC
DON'T PANIC
Or they'll flouridate your water MORE!!!!!!
Actually, it is one of many reasons we chlorinate our water.
Thanks, Bruce, for your part in keeping our Drinking Water clean and pure ... POE, Bro, POE.
We have had 50% of normal snowfall this year in the Sierra's west of Reno near Lake Tahoe. Last year was very wet and the water supply will carry over somewhat this year for Reno and other nearby cities. Another year or two like this last one and there will be a lot of people wanting more water ... if it's yellow, let it mellow but if it's brown flush it down.
yup...., those new fangled water efficient toilets are a waste of money.
deer soup....yum
the west is equally dry, although we had a late storm a few days ago, temps will be in the 80's this week.
guessing a hot summer is on the way.
get some sterilized piranha to take care of the deer.
I just bought another 55 gallon water tank reading this.
http://foodstoragesuccess.com/
You can never have enough of a water supply- for yourself.
Yes, lead and copper are for realists, but water will provide you life.
If you live near the coast (salt water), this will give you plenty of fresh water - hand pump desalinator
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B000F3CH0I/ref=oh_details_o05_s00_i00 - Price $2,056
Talk about inflation - I bought mine in 2010 for $1,280.75
Don't forget about water in water heaters in abandoned homes - but you may need to filter it before drinking.
very dry here in Northern VA. Weather Service put area in "Red Flag" warning (extreme high brush/forest fire threat) couple week ago. This hasn't happened in decades.
90's in az, getting pretty warm...
Going to see 100 on Saturday. Time to go to Prescott.