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The Death of Crudubeeleetee (RIP)

undertheradar's picture





 

The implications of the rudderless ship that is the Netherlands are becoming clear as mud. Lex Hoogduin says we shouldn't be overly preoccuppied with our credibility. I am interested in this question and therefore throw the question back to the best performing investors we have on the site, if they have the time, how would you be investing at the moment? Have bonds lost all their appeal? Stocks?

Moody's is throwing the country into a tizzy by focusing on government debt. No mention of private debt. But I guess we have to keep things simple for the great unwashed. It has severe warnings for us. How should we interpret this? Sorry I am now asking for answers, I'm not a professional investor. Maybe you could give us a few tips as we consider entering or exiting markets.

We'll have a barometer indicator today as the Dutch sell a modest amount of bonds from a global perspective in the 2 and 25 flavours. I wonder who's going to boycott.

De Hond says Wilders is down one to nineteen, CDA down three to eleven, Groenlinks down one to five, VVD up two to thirty-three, SP up two to thirty, PvdA and D66 stable at twenty four and fifteen resp. Sunday results.

Short post, if you guys aren't angry at me for posting short posts and clogging your mailboxes, I may do this more often. Of course flame me if I deserve it and if those flames are cruduble enough I'll leave the site.

 


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Wed, 04/25/2012 - 11:48 | Link to Comment zilverreiger
zilverreiger's picture

100% 50/50 GOLD/SILVER,  66/33 physical/paper, see you at the ship to south america.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 21:15 | Link to Comment undertheradar
undertheradar's picture

Things are looking pretty bleak indeed. It gets me thinking about a lot of things. The nature of existence and society to mention only a few things ;)

Since I seem to have a place here to draw readers, I will recount some of the things going on in my mind. 

YOU are free to think and feel what YOU want and how much you want to get into or repress those thoughts and feelings. What are YOU facing in your life? Some people may think I represent certain interests or that I have an unhealthy obsession with money. If you think I am unfairly representing your interests, let me know, and use your most persuasive means to do it. Let me say I HOPE I represent a right to think and speak freely first of all. I also encourage you to write those things down and post them right here. I may be a bit psychoanalytical in my thinking. But is it enough to try to resolve your 'issues' in private by a professional? Of course you are free to speculate more freely on things and leave your 'own' interests 'unwritten'.

What do you think about the bewildering state of affairs? You've obviously decided to check out my blog or are already a long time ZH reader and will take anyone's view to add to your insight (whether I am correct in my view or not).

Some issues I'm most interested in in my blog though:

1. We are facing elections in September.

2. The budget will be an important moment for parties to display their loyalties. These may even seem/be destructive rather than constructive in your opinion.

3. How do we fit into the global picture? Is the trajectory of events in your interests? For how long?

I hope you realise I may reply, or a lot of people may reply, perhaps in a way you did not expect. But of course, you have your chance to rephrase yourself. Is this a worthwhile way to spend your time? I can't answer that for you.

Let me say too that I understand where ZR is coming from and what he is saying. But that might not make sense or be important to you. As we move along the time spectrum we are all doing things we think/know are important for our 'own' interests.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 08:06 | Link to Comment bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Would be good to help out non-local readers by spelling out who the Dutch parties are when you talk about them - they don't know who 'VVD' is, you are writing as if for a strictly Dutch audience.

Brief description 'centre-right', 'centre-left', 'extremist-anarchist' etc. would do.

When Bruce Krasting writes about his native Switzerland, he gives context so people who know nothing about Switzerland can still follow the article ... good model.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 06:23 | Link to Comment zilverreiger
zilverreiger's picture

I agree it would be valuable for the global readership to have you as an independent reporter for the netherlands, this requires some more explanation on things in the articles. It doesnt have to be objective, you can also make opinion pieces, those are often more fun to read too.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 11:43 | Link to Comment undertheradar
undertheradar's picture

The fact that elections are coming means I probably will have to put some more time into politics directly. I will keep this in mind. I'd like to keep my focus primarily on financial and economic stories especially ones I feel need more exposure. Certain readers can appreciate an eclectic choice in subject matter and an unconventional presentation. I enjoy reading the comments and hope that others will keep adding other interesting aspects.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 23:07 | Link to Comment undertheradar
undertheradar's picture

You have a point. I find the delineations you mention are fuzzy. Most are close somewhere in the centre. I'm careful what I label them, labels are just that sometimes. Leaders play an important role. I try making contrasts where I think important. What is clear is that the so-called extreme right PVV is soft on certain things or certain constituencies when it wants to be. I've also read someone describe Jolanda Sap of Groenlinks as a neo-liberal. PVV and SP are both for increasing sovereignty and potentially leaving the euro as I think I understand it. D66 are for more elected officials and a few other quirky things belonging to their tradition. A possibly malignant tumour of the hippy generation. It's a complicated story. I like to focus on policy and economics, finance, stories, not theses on 'politics' here. Poll results indicate something to non-natives too. The fluidity of the politics here for a lack of a better word. The blog is day to day. Right now it'd probably be best to take a rest for a bit.

Keep your criticism coming.

Why don't you start a blog?

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 06:36 | Link to Comment Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

I'll invest in hard assets and energy. Hence a cold fusion home reactor (http://ecat.com/)
http://pesn.com/2011/07/14/9501868_E-Cat_news_coming_fast_and_furious/

 

And get the fuck out of Europe. Argentina looks definetly better nowadays.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 06:18 | Link to Comment zilverreiger
zilverreiger's picture

I'm also thinking of argentina because this is in the suthern hemisphere which is safer when the nuke plants start to fall apart. But its probably a dump from what I've seen from that doug casey resort critic, theres a huge income gap. But in those barren areas the soil is cheap and noone will bother you. And its not as crowded as brazil. Or perhaps one could reconnect with old dutch colonies. But so far these are just romantic fantasies, well see what happens in our elite country first, I'm counting on that we'll be hit late, and we have a comfortably strong neighbour.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 12:27 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Nobody in their right mind would make that move. The desert is everywhere but especially the Americas. Moving away from the States is the only move that makes sense but only if you've been abroad prior which most living there have not.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 06:38 | Link to Comment Reptil
Reptil's picture

I'm sitting here sipping an espresso looking at the confusion. I really don't give a flying fuck about local politics. The bastard politicians and "wise men" sold us out some years ago to Carlyle Group, Monsanto et al (the few scraps that weren't already sold to their counterparts). The politicians in Brussels are now the "corporate liasons". This is just the "wrapping up", the painful process of telling all those good law abiding dutch that the money's gone *poof* and that there's no one to blame, since they all resigned. bye bye and thanks for the fish. I spent some time last year looking into the workings of one of these political "bulwarks", it really is inpenetrable. People licking and kicking for years. Following all the "required steps" to climb up the ladder, to attain that big job. Hopelessly inflexible. Thanks, but no thanks.

It'll become really interesting when the real estate takes a really big painful dump, and price adjustment will be 40% downward. Possibly panic selling. LOL The "makebelief dance" here is becoming comical to watch. If everyone is misinformed, then there's no problem, right? There's going to be some ANGRY DESPERATE people, losing their house (the "untouchable" asset for most here). If I can have a dubbeltje (dime) for all the times I've been told to "invest in real estate" at the height of the market, I'd be sipping that coffee under a palmtree.

Possibly the "interim cabinet" will push through all kinds of draconian bullshit, like a huge experimental MOX reactor in Borssele, amputation of pension rights, EVEN MORE taxes on gas and energy, all those things that make society "tick". Basically.... they have the good citizens by the balls.
Just in case, I've got a car parked in front, with a full tank, for an obligatory long holliday. LOL

Heb je goud en zilver? nee? tsk tsk ;-)

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 08:05 | Link to Comment undertheradar
undertheradar's picture

I get way too worked up about these things from time to time. It is all around us and will get way worse before it gets better. Impossible to face constantly so we all need to escape from time to time, like me right now. I don't want to be overly cynical, just a method to make a point from time to time. Sometimes difficult to compose myself. There won't be a debate on the growing risks of the euro breaking up and how the ratings downgrade might have just as much to do with that. Far too troubling a topic. Necessary illusions. It will not get you elected either.

But find a good community and think creatively. Not sure when, probably not this year or next but you never know. Globalism is great for the globalists and lousy for everyone else. Just have to live with it as best we can.

I just read this on the BBC, hats off to those willing to tell it how it is for them:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17757235

Hmm, I never know what to say about G&Z :) Tricky topic handled very well here already. Part of a good portfolio if you have one. Canned goods? Nee? ;) 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 11:09 | Link to Comment Reptil
Reptil's picture

I have some peace of mind now, since I know it's inevitable it's going to be a lot worse and hedged accordingly. I don't see it getting a lot better soon. Difficult to understand for those that are (still) in the bubble and worried about me not tying my economic fate to a ship going down (In their minds, going up. LOL). There's no strenght in numbers if we're going off a cliff.
Got to keep a positive POV, and I've noticed ordinairy people are well aware of what's going on. It's the "educated" part of the population that's unwilling to accept they've been fooled.

 

edit: cut for brevity

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 20:16 | Link to Comment undertheradar
undertheradar's picture

Good point. When I talk the ordinairy folk are so angry they don't want to talk about it. They've seen this country loose so many jobs being replaced by mcjobs. Dominant lobbies argue the issues for them. And an unwillingness by politics to talk openly about real issues. They argue about mosquito bites and the weather with great rhetorical gusto. 

With regards to this article, I'd like to state that in my opinion organisations like MKB (small and medium sized businesses and other business organisations) who are fully on the NWO bandwagon have come down hard on this ratings story since they will likely see their borrowing rates rise as a result. They know their interests and are willing to use the harshest reprimands to politicians and electorates to smarten up and get with the game plan. They don't have time for complicated arguments.

More later.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 05:05 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Good question.

Hard to invest in jiggered markets; kind of like throwing your dice on a tossing ship captained by someone else and swabbed by his/her crew and hoping to get 6 out of 12 or better and not lose your dice.

Hard to know if property you acquire is really even yours anymore (you have to have enough to bribe TPTB and be in favor).

There is something holy about a person posessing arms to defend what is theirs, but we live in an unholy world.

After the past ten years, I don't feel secure that anything is really mine or an investment, other than my children and they have free will.

Tangible assets are what does it for me; precious metals, cash (as far as fiat goes), small number of possessions, knowledge and skills.

After bailouts, robo-mortage signings, complicit, vacillating, or gutless politicians - and a mass media that furthers pointless distractions and pellet dispensing ad nauseum - I doubt the future of the species.

Go with what you know with tenacity and determination and trust no one but yourself.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 12:42 | Link to Comment undertheradar
undertheradar's picture

Accounting, supervision and regulation are deteriorating everywhere. 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 04:42 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

Am short selling at the moment, patience.....

Its a crazy market

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 04:51 | Link to Comment undertheradar
undertheradar's picture

Don't let the French hear you say that.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 04:06 | Link to Comment TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

It's time, its time -- oh, its time to be sick of the swiss.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2XTuc6i1Uo

 

Move over america, there's a new asshole on the map!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 01:51 | Link to Comment hangman
hangman's picture

I heard "This time is different" is really interesting read.  It sounds like they are saying, "We are special and therefore, our debt and our situation are different."  Yeah, right...

 

 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 03:19 | Link to Comment undertheradar
undertheradar's picture

They're confronted with it now. And they will all try to act civil and pass something this week. A rude reminder of where we're at.

 

I have R + R. Perhaps we should listen to them.

 

Besides, our banks which are going to pick this stuff up are going to earn fatter rates on it as an excuse/result. As long as they can keep holding it. I'm guessing our pension funds have an appetite for more domestic bonds too. The flipside of a trade surplus is that you have too much choice where to park your fucks.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 01:50 | Link to Comment jack stephan
jack stephan's picture

Hoffman: And you and Frank Martin are friends, right?
Tarconi: A friend? I wouldn't say exactly a friend... I know him, we have a relationship...
Hoffman: A long relationship?
Tarconi: Mm... not so long...
Hoffman: But they found you cooking in his house!
Tarconi: I'm French!
Hoffman: So?
Tarconi: We don't need to know someone for longtime, you know, to cook for them... It's our way of breaking the ice.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 02:08 | Link to Comment undertheradar
undertheradar's picture

 A grande bouffe.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 12:59 | Link to Comment Reptil
Reptil's picture

The thing about Wilders is that he's power hungry. He'll sell out all those "minions" that support him, and "the cause" (whatever the fuck that is) in an instant, if this would get him further.

He's already pledged support for the french and their nuclear industry, would love to be part of the "NWO team" and put everyone that opens their mouth in a dutch "Guantanamo" (on the Veluwe, where they "interned" all the Molukker families of those that fought our colonial wars, up until the seventies?). Verhage not much better, sceming to dump the Constitution without referencing this with the parliament. tsk tsk Diederik Samsom? Twittering away about Fukushima "cold shutdowns", man's got his head up his own arse so far he can't see straigth. Rutte? Sliming up to young voters of other parties like the SGP. Great wardrobe choice (jeans) but substance? I think he's about to be shoved under the bus. Back to living with his mom.

What we need is integrity, some big smart guard dogs, that cannot be corrupted, and understand the present global shennannigans, not a jackal like Wilders or Verhage.

Fitting in the changing reality of nuclear and financial disasters into national politics is really the litmus test. NONE of them passed.

Anyone that likes to see clueless men quibble over things beyond their comprehension; here's a link to a live debate from Parliament: http://www.telegraaf.nl/binnenland/11985761/__LIVEBLOG_Debat_over_val_ka...

The only thing they discussed were themselves. Hot air to hide the fact that this fallen government pledged billions to bailout insolvent banks, through insolvent nations, and then present the taxpayers the (austerity) bill. Which would result in significant loss of economic growth, apart from screwing pensioners that put their paycheck aside for pensions, for decades. SHAMEFUL and CLUELESS because they don't realise many are on to their bullshit. The period between the bailout and the austerity is too short, for ppl. to forget.

For all those that really scratch their heads right now, WTF this is about, dutch pension funds are BIG investors in the USA (up till 2008 the largest investment in the USA of any nation), and Holland's a sort of fiscal "hub" for multinationals, a financial and organisational node in the global game. If it goes, and there's riots here like in 2002 (almost revolution), disrupting operations, yeah that's a dark horse for ya....

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 20:22 | Link to Comment undertheradar
undertheradar's picture

Thanks for a very insightful post R. I agree with you almost completely. As regards Samsom's proposals for subsidies and proper regulation of PV, Verhagen shot it down. So I know which one of them I'd pick if it was as simple as that. And I think they're all power hungry - a good deal are more embedded in the corrupt establishment and therefore "acceptable" - at least to themselves.

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