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What the April Job Report Means To me
Unfortunately I had a 'good' jobs forecast this AM as I was looking for 125K; we got 115K.
The previous two months were revised up by a net of just over 50K, and that is something. Revisions matter. But I do not like looking at the number 'net of revisions' and saying they are now as expected. They are not as expected... In fact we learn by looking at the numbers and looking a the revisions, as separate events. For example one thing the revision means is that the drop off in April was WORSE than we expected, from +154K to +115K . Had we 'known' March was 154K what do you think we would have 'expected for April? 115K? I don't think so. This NOT as expected...
For now one thing the revisions do mean is the the estimation techniques of the BLS are being overshot by the actual data trends. That implies that there is still some sort of unexpected acceleration going on by the late reporters. And that is good news.
In some ways having a low headline and an upward revision is a separate bit of good news.
DIVERGENCE - dealing with it....
Despite weak PAYROLL growth the unemployment rate fell. It is now 8.1%, down from 8.2%.
Huh?
No one will like how it happened as the labor force contracted and overall household survey (HHS) employment levels fell. But before going bonkers on this month's results remember that the HHS produced -31K jobs in March, +429K in Feb and +847K in Jan etc
Over six months the HHS job growth is up by 1.255% compared to 0.983% for payrolls... Had the payroll report jobs been growing at the same speed as employment in the household report we would have had an extra 360K jobs over that six month period or an average of about 60K more per month
Over six months payroll job gains average 197K; if they had grown as fast (in % terms) as the HHS the gains they would have averaged nearly 260K per month. So that is why the unemployment rate is dropping. Household jobs are being created at a 'payroll equivalent pace' of 260K per month...
So the household report has been picking up more job growth than the headline-grabbing payroll report and that is why the unemployment rate is falling. Month-to-month the household report is volatile so step back from this volatile jobs number. The trends of the two employment surveys are much more similar over longer periods. So what is really happening?
We still do not know, what we do not know...but we can piece things together
Right now here is what we do not know:
we do not know if the better weather pushed up job growth early this year robbing us of growth in subsequent months. Now, as we get into the period when some of that hiring was supposed to happen since, some of it is already 'on the books', the seasonal factors are reducing growth because they do not see the increase that they expect month-to-month. So the seasonal factors may simply be bringing the employment LEVELS back to where they belong. ..
Or
Is all that true to some extent, but is there a real slowing going on, on top of that? Are we past the seasonal pay-back slowdown and is the economy really slowing and is job growth next month going to be even slower?
This is a key question.
What we KNOW is that the unemployment rate still fell in April. What we also know is that while the part of the HHS job report tha focuses on levels for employment, unemployment and labor force are unstable, that same report tends to get the unemployment rate right. That implies that the errors in the numerator and denominator (U= number unemployed Divided by number in the labor force) offset. You may doubt this but you can easily verify this as the rate of unemployment is very steady while the data on which it is based (ie number unemployed, number in the labor force) on jump all over the place. That should tend to reassure us that whatever slowing is in train, it is not so bad that it has pushed the unemployment RATE UP. In fact the RATE has FALLEN. That fact argues that much of what we are seeing is a reaction to a data compilation process that has not been able to cope with seasonal abnormalities.
That would also suggest that some of the economic weakness seen in economic indicators is real in so far as the levels of activity had picked up previously and simply did not continue to pick up as much as seasonal factors suggested because growth was shifted ahead. Because of that monthly changes were weaker than expected.
For example, jobless claims after a large Easter bump up are back down in the 360K range. they suggest that we might be through the adjustment period...
While we do not know what is going on precisely, the drop in the unemployment rate is one very important and steady signal that continues to point the way to continued economic progress. The continuing upward revisions to jobs suggests that there is still some unexpected acceleration in place. That does not necessarily mean that we are though the period of seeing all our weather abnormalities wash though the system.
But construction job trends are illustrative: They rose by 26K in Dec and by a further 18K in Jan; they are -1k, -3K and -2K over the past three months, averaging just about 5K per month over that five month period. It suggests to me that we have gone through a period of payback and might expect to see job growth picking up in May.
That's all speculation of course, but that is what the numbers suggest to me.
Also April showers bring May flowers.
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This guy is clearly on crack, or lips firmly sealed to ObaMao's sphincter....yea the UE rate 'fell' .1% because 550,000 people just gave up and left the 'work farce'.
They did NOT give up NOR did they Leave .... They were sacked, downsized, rationalized and generally thrown to the wolves.
Say it like it feels and accept it has No sugarcoat
Rubber Scrota bounces again!
That has made me laugh all week.
So, I guess the replacement of full time jobs with part time jobs is a good thing. The food stamp lines get longer. The people are getting fussier. Tensions are building.
Everything is fine. Nothing to see here. Move along sir . . .
My son, for instance, went from a full-time job with benies to two part-time jobs without.
Bullish!
Two Jobs - BLS should send him a thank you card for juicing their numbers.
but on a sad note .. that it is "part time" at HIS TIME in life make me so angry that I can do nothing to help him hope for better days. My 3 sons share in his painfull acceptance but at least they also work when it is available.
<bow>
Anagrams FTW!
Bob, are you curently employed? I really enjoy your humor and believe the public deserves to know you better.
If we had seen more snow there would have been more snow-shoveling jobs < $10 an hour; but since the weather was warmer there are more fertilizer/weed spraying jobs < $10 an hour.
Green shoots, mustard seeds; puff...puff...pass...
...to the left motherfucker.
Me thinks from reading that one could draw a logical conclusion after relying upon some of the looked after and researched notes that were thought to be provided from prior research and learnings from various people over time and found in the government to be researching all of what we were looking for when we needed it.
Does that make any more sense? I'm just an accountant, but holy shit, that is one of the poorest written articles using the most assumptions and fantasy beliefs I have ever come across.....F this guy....never again will I click on one of his writings.
Pot-holed analysis using Jenga word structure. Even Tylers make mistakes now-and-then, but at least I want to read on
until the end (not so much here). Brusca showers made dead flowers.
"Even Tylers make mistakes now-and-then, but at least I want to read on"
Spot on. I couldn't even get through 3 paragraphs of this tripe, and I am NOT re-reading for clarification.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0WGVW7byRCA
Brusca dressed down by a muppet. Film at 11.
well played, Mr. Beaker, Sir.
Perfect avatar for your response.
Brusca you'd find 'good news' in baumolitis. excessive optimism is a mental disorder.
RB. I'm beginning to think you are a masochist.
Quite the ramble.
Word. High anxiety and a creeping self-doubt will do that to you.
I'm of the Biderman camp on this one, the report sucks in determining anything relevant. As he states that the BLS is 90% confident of +/- 100,000 jobs.
That being said, let's get to the bigger issue which is with all the so-called stimulus (read backdoor bailouts of insolvent sectors of the economy that have somehow become bigger than the God or the Beatles) then the picture really looks horrible when you consider any growth (anemic at best) has been on leverage and the payback ie cost of leverage is far from being recovered.
Bottomline: the central planners shot their wad and came up very short and continue to drive us into a depression it's a matter of time not statistical noise when the world wakes up and finds itself broke, defrauded, and destitute if we don't change policy ourselves.
P.S. with that 90% confidence in place, we should really be looking at +750k jobs/month, but sadly we're not.
All BLS numbers are complex with a small real but large imaginary component. So, let's just say they estimate +/- 100000i (i=square root of -1) imagninary jobs were created.
Do we conveniently leave out the ONE million that do not get counted as unemployed, because they have DROPPED off ther job roles?.
And the 89 Million that used to have jobs, that are sitting around still eating, and living at home, and driving everywhere, shopping, and living almost the same lives as before THEY lost their jobs?.
They are, because their getting UE,first, second times,99 weeks worth,just now being cut back? and when that runs out they get into the SSDF.( Not all, but a LOT are.
Way too many folks are too COMFORTABLE with these gub giveaways, WHEN they STOP, then all hell would break out..............
I like this to giving a bottle of booze to an alcoholic, and thinking I am helping him.
At some point, this train must stop, and people need to get pissed off, if we are to really see the sheeple grow teeth, got to get em off the gub teat (I figure right after Obummer wins in '12,and the troops hit the streets).
Why work?, when all the basic neccessities in life are being handed out freely by our socialist government.
I am afraid that printing and more giveaways will prevail before anything else.
Numbers, numbers, everywhere!
But not a job to be had.
Revisions matter.
That's how far I got this time before I threw up. Revisions don't matter to algos (but maybe to liberal history book authors).
Hoping things are better than they in fact are is not a strategy, Robert.
I just hope that Mr. Bruschetta is not driving under the influence of whatever psychotropic drugs he was indulging in when he wrote (and I use that word very loosely) this rambling, nonsensical, utterly insulting piece of tripe.
And THIS man has a PhD? Truly, shit rises to the top, at least in academia.
Bob, you will be very happy to hear, that once again, chocolate production is up.
You're either an academic idiot or a paid government shill. This is the last time I waste my time reading your fucking nonsense...
Chocolate production is up? That's double plus good. Which is more than I can for this so-called "article".
I can think of over $15 (going on 16!) Trillion reasons why optimism is a codeword for delusional at this point in time...
"How many fingers, Winston?"
The reference to chocolate production/allocation sent a very palpable shiver down my spine.
Personally, I'm just here for the comedy.
I'm here for the comments.
Thanks for giving a different perspective, other than all the negative ones on this blog. It does have "hedge" in the name.
LOL! 7 votes DOWN for your rhetoric...
By negative, you mean Realistic, right.
Oh, no, that's right. Progressive socialists don't acknowledge
the words realistic, realist, truth, fact, etc...
Perhaps you dream of ass-dicking Brusca?
"Not that there's anything wrong with that..."
Please come back when you are able to tell the difference between "a different perspective" and truth vs. fallacy.
"We still do not know, what we do not know...but we can piece things together"
I stopped reading right there. WTF? Don Rumsfeld?
Unreadable.
-1
please share what you're smoking and find a proof reader
Mr. Brusca, If you submitted your tripe to Illene to edit she would probably redact the whole thing.
You don't even offer a contrarion POV.
What you offer is your lame, failed, ideology.
You remind me of that childs toy from the '50s (Punching Judy ?)
Everytime, no matter what, it is punched it bounces right back up for more abuse.
I have yet to learn a damn thing from you.
The unemployment went down?
He means that the manipulated number was lower. The unemployment went up as more people are unemployed than ever on a % basis.
Let me see, -360,000 jobs and +115,000 jobs. That does not sound like a decreasing unemployment rate to me. Maybe you forgot the obvious. The simple fact that people are no longer being counted after 6 months even if they are unemployed.
I think the proof reader smoked the roach. Poof.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7z192I-mQM
What the numbers tell me is People don't "Leave" the workforce they are sacked.
This spinning vortex is accelerating and a World recession is at the center.
you will decouple alright ... when you realise you can only drag a chain never push it