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The Japanese Are Dumping Their Gold
Wolf Richter www.testosteronepit.com
In Japan, people who are old enough to have lived it as adults still reminisce about the bubble that blew up in 1989 when the Nikkei almost hit 40,000 (now at 9,045) and when the already sky-high prices of real estate could only go up further. The slide from the top to reality today has been brutal, and a lot of people lost their shirts. A home changed from being an “investment” to being an “expense.” Stocks became toys for traders. And government bonds, because they kept their value though their coupons were practically imperceptible, became the place to go, and by golly, there suddenly were a lot of them, a veritable tsunami of JGBs that is still building momentum and will reach by the end of this fiscal year one quadrillion yen ($14 trillion), 240% of GDP. But there has been one investment, especially since 1999, that has worked out phenomenally well for the otherwise hapless Japanese investor: Gold.
Alas, they’re dumping it. And when they’re dumping it faster than internal demand can absorb it, the surplus is exported and shows up in the trade statistics of the Ministry of Finance: in fiscal 2006, Japan became a net exporter of gold for the first time since the ministry started tracking it in 1988. Net exports rose every year and built into a crescendo in fiscal 2011, ended March 31, when they surged to 135 tons, an astounding 61% jump from fiscal 2010.
The two largest destinations were Britain and Hong Kong, according to the Ministry of Finance trade data. While Japan has a long history of gold mining, current production is small, ranging from 6.8 tons to 8.9 tons annually over the last decade—hence only a negligible factor in the phenomenon of net exports.
The main sellers were individuals. And one wonders why the love affair with physical gold, one of the few profitable investments the Japanese had access to, is ending despite its truly great run since 1999, when it traded at ¥1,000 per gram, to its peak in August 2011 when it traded at ¥4,745 per gram—the month that bullion house Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo K.K. said it bought 15 tons of gold from individuals, five times the normal rate.
There may be reasons that are unique to Japan. Worldwide, the run-up in gold prices might have encouraged individuals to sell their physical gold at an ever quicker pace, but that has not taken place on a massive scale. Rather, a highly plausible reason is that inflation and the fear of inflation have been wrung out of the Japanese psyche over the last 15 years, a period that pundits describe as a descent down an infernal "deflationary spiral":
As the graph shows, over the last fifteen years, the Japanese were in fact among the few people in the world enjoying actual price stability, with interchanging periods of minor inflation and minor deflation—as opposed to the 27% inflation per decade that the Fed has conjured up and continues to call, moronically, “price stability.”
The lack of inflation in Japan has much to do with how expensive everything in Japan used to be during the bubble when Japan was an essentially closed-off market. Over the years, under heavy and consistent pressure from the US, Japan cracked open its borders just a smidgen here and there, allowing cheaper imports to appear, gradually and grudgingly, on the shelves. Read.... The Real Reason for Deflation in Japan.
So, gold has been a great investment, but the Japanese no longer see the need to protect their assets against inflation as its ravages have receded into distant memory. With that fear gone, the motivation to hold on to an asset that has had a phenomenal run turns into the irresistible urge to take profits. But there may be another reason:
"Historically, gold flowed to wealthy countries," said Itsuo Toshima, former Japanese representative at the World Gold Council. And a massive gold outflow, he said, is a sign of Japan's "declining economic power."
In the US, life without Fed-inspired inflation is unimaginable, and investors are struggling with it on a daily basis. “My investing model is ABCD: Anything Bernanke Cannot Destroy: flashlight batteries, canned beans, bottled water, gold, a cabin in the mountains,” said David Stockman in an awesome and pungent interview. The director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Reagan said with his usual flair that a "paralyzed" Fed is in its "final days," hostage of Wall Street "robots" that trade in markets that are "artificially medicated." Read the whole interview..... The Emperor is Naked: David Stockman.
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Regarding last paragraphs, why would anyone think market gamed just because Diamond likes to close a few expiry Fridays (weekly/monthly) in row on an even number, like 132.00. Those were the days. Things may be a bit of a canard but big waves can wipe out daily pings. Wake me at the bottom. ;-)
What about the children?
and if you were tuned into NPR, this would be the moment when the announcer would breathlessly inquire of his guest, "But how does this affect Israel?"
I was unaware the Japanese were ever buyers of gold. I asked one of the few Japanese people I come into contact with about a year ago how they viewed gold and he said most didn't think about it one way or the other or considered it a 'risky' investment.
buying gold is a secretive act, especially in japan, home of the ninja crowd...
Your statement only comes to show how easily we tend to make general assumptions with only tiny information.
Its like me taking a bucket of water out of the pacific ocean and concluding that there are no whales in this ocean.
I dont know about you but not even all my family members know (or care) that I am into gold.
Classic....
Well played sir!
We may have a lost decade or two also. Gold may be fairly priced for the foreseeable future
Gold is a great hedge. You figure if your gold goes to $0, then everything else must be really good. So I hope gold drops off, that means my cash will blow up!
If not, I have a hard asset that can not be printed.
Joe, you are not allowed to say anything bad about gold here.
I really like it and I will buy some more when it gets back down to $300/oz.
I keep forgetting the "/sarc".
"Here, you can have my silver...." - Angel, as he reaches for gun. (via Wild Bunch)
you can have it..... from my cold dead hands
I'll sell you some now for $100 per gram.
I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a kilo today.
I'd rather buy all he has for sale at $600.
Good deal for him, because he can for sure buy it back at half the price, right?
Joe the Troll: Gold might well be fairly priced for the foreseeable future. All the way until the next tick.
I thought Japan was suffering from deflation the last 20 years. Yet gold served as a good investment during that time for them?
In deflation the fear of currency risk supports gold.
...huh?
Prices of many things in Japan have been falling during the last 20 years while Gold increased in price = good investment.
Additionally, banks not only were NOT paying interest on deposits, they were charging customers to hold their money - so Japanese were storing their cash in freezers or home safes.
Indeed it did
It may be that most of those selling HAVE to sell.
It could be the segment of the population that is being squeezed the hardest.
It may be that the gold is hot. Not stolen, radioactive. Time to ditch it.
you have a choice between radioactive gold and toilet flushed fiat...
When I read this I was thinking the same thing. How of that gold glows in the dark? How much radiation is going around the world in jewlery and bullion now?
Assuming it was refined/minted/fabricated before last year, the only thing you would have to do to get rid of any radiation would be to wash it off with some water and detergent.