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If Spain's Problems Are Solved... Why Are They Putting Together "Plan B"?

Phoenix Capital Research's picture





 

 

We have entered an extremely dangerous environment: one in which the primary prop for asset prices (Central Banks) are running out of ammunition. This will have profound consequences for all asset classes as well as the financial system at large.

 

This was the real problem with Central Bank responses to 2008 all along: by attempting to prolong a peaked economic/ credit cycle, they have set the stage for an even larger Crisis, one that will see the Central Banks themselves collapse along with numerous sovereign defaults.

 

These are the key take home points ALL investors must come to grips with:

 

  1. Going forward  the Easy Money props are going to be removed from beneath the market.
  2. Sovereign defaults are coming. Whether it’s through hyperinflation, reneging on promised future social welfare / pension/ healthcare spending, or outright messy defaults (or various combinations of these) we will see most of the Western world defaulting on its debts in the coming years.

 

How soon all of this unfolds remains to be seen. The Multi-­?Trillion Dollar Question is whether the markets realize that Central Banks are virtually powerless sooner rather than later.

 

By the look of things, it’s coming relatively soon. Spain, which is now at the forefront of the Great Western Debt Default Collapse, has opted to seek funding from the mega-bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) rather than going directly to the ECB or the IMF.

 

The reasons for this are clear: the IMF doesn’t have the funds (nor will it as the US won’t fund a European bailout during a Presidential election year). And the ECB is now backed into a political corner with Germany.

 

However, as Spain has discovered, even ESM funding doesn’t come without strings attached:

 

Germany Rejects Spain Banks Tapping Bailout Fund, Meister Says

 

Spain’s rating downgrade at Standard & Poor’s doesn’t alter Germany’s stance that banks can’t have direct access to Europe’s financial backstops, a senior lawmaker from Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party said.

 

“The German position is absolutely strict,” Michael Meister, the deputy caucus chairman of Merkel’s Christian Democrats, said in a phone interview in Berlin. “And since such aid programs require unanimity, there’s not going to be any change. All sorts of people can try to set things in motion, but Germany won’t vote for it.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-27/germany-rejects-spain-banks-tapping-bailout-fund-meister-says.html

 

 

The ESM funding idea is really just Spain playing for time (the ESM doesn’t actually have the funds to bail Spain out). But the fact that Germany is now making the ESM a political issue indicates the degree to which political relationships are breaking down in the EU. And once the political relationships break down... so will the Euro.

Indeed, Germany has no choice. If it decides to prop up Spain it will receive a ratings downgrade (something which France is about to experience anyway). Europe with a downgraded Germany is not a pretty sight.

 

Moreover, Germany’s decision to prop up the Euro is finally beginning to arouse furor from the German population. In particular, the below story which reveals that Germany has in fact put German taxpayers on the hook for over €2 trillion in back-door EU rescue measures could be the proverbial tipping point that sends German voters over the edge.

 

German tempers boil over back-door euro rescues

 

Professor Hans-Werner Sinn, head of Germany's IFO Institute, said German taxpayers are facing a dangerous rise in credit risk from a plethora of bail-out schemes. "The euro-system is near explosion," he told Austria's Economics Academy on Thursday.

?????

?????Dr Sinn said Germany is on the hook for much of the €2.1 trillion (£1.72 trillion) in rescue measures for EMU debtors- often by the backdoor- that will saddle Germans with ruinous losses one day.

 

"It is a horror scenario," he said, warning that the euro system is splitting friendly countries into blocs of mutually hostile creditors and debtors, exactly the opposite of what was hoped.

 

Earlier this week, the Foundation for Family Business in Munich filed a criminal lawsuit against the Bundesbank, accusing the board of disguising the true scale of risk born by German citizens.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9215232/German-tempers-boil-over-back-door-euro-rescues.html

 

This is the last thing Angela Merkel needs right now. Between this and inflation arising in Germany she’s in major political hot water. So expect Germany to push even harder when it comes to fiscal austerity in the future...

Which means that the European mega-bailout funds (the ESM and EFSF) will be much less likely to put out money for Spain. This is why Spain has now opted to follow Germany’s steps in establishing a “Plan B.”

 

Spanish lenders in talks over 'bad bank' plan

 

As their losses from mortgages grow, Spanish banks have begun discussions about creating a separate entity -a "bad bank" - to take on these assets and relieve pressure on the country's financial sector.

 

The goal of the new organization would be to reduce the financial strain on banks and prevent the need for either a more costly government bailout or an international rescue along the lines of Greece, Portugal and Ireland...

 

The official for Spain's Economy Ministry confirmed Monday that the Spanish banking industry is discussing creating a private entity that would assume their toxic assets. The new asset management organization is designed to take the burden of trying to sell foreclosed properties off the banks and allow them to concentrate on providing credit to the private sector.
 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/markets/government-agency-confirms-spain-back-in-recession-following-2nd-quarterly-contraction/2012/04/30/gIQAYMuBrT_story.html

 

 

This is similar to Germany’s Special Financial Market Stabilization Funds, or SoFFin for short.

???

The SoFFin is essentially Germany’s emergency bailout fund for times of Crisis. It was created in October 2008 to help the German financial system get through the 2008 Collapse by allowing German banks to dump toxic mortgage assets and other items into the fund so they could clear their balance sheets.

 

Once things improved, SoFFin was essentially put on hold in December 2010. But in the last three months, Germany has brought it back. And it’s brought it back with one very crucial difference:

 

Germany Approves Bank Bailout Bill

 

The SoFFin will give up to €400 billion ($524.24 billion) in guarantees for banks and provide up to €80 billion for recapitalization. The fund, which for the first time will accept euro-zone government bonds, will be operational until Dec. 31 2012.

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204573704577184362262410868.html

 

The SoFFin and Spain’s “Bad Bank” represent essentially the same idea: attempting to make bad bank debts magically disappear by removing from the private banks’ balance sheets AND keeping them off the public’s balance sheet (they’d be parked in an external entity).

 

This is the equivalent of just sweeping bad debts “under the rug.” The debts still do in fact exist and still pose a threat to the financial system. The markets know this, which is why Spanish banks continue to be nationalized or under major duress.

 

With that in mind, the clock is ticking on Europe. On that note, I fully believe the EU in its current form is in its final chapters. Whether it’s through Spain imploding or Germany ultimately pulling out of the Euro, we’ve now reached the point of no return: the problems facing the EU (Spain and Italy) are too large to be bailed out. There simply aren’t any funds or entities large enough to handle these issues.

 

So if you’re not already taking steps to prepare for the coming collapse, you need to do so now. I recently published a report showing investors how to prepare for this. It’s called How to Play the Collapse of the European Banking System and it explains exactly how the coming Crisis will unfold as well as which investment (both direct and backdoor) you can make to profit from it.

 

This report is 100% FREE. You can pick up a copy today at: http://www.gainspainscapital.com

 

Good Investing!

 

Graham Summers

 

PS. We also feature numerous other reports ALL devoted to helping you protect yourself, your portfolio, and your loved ones from the Second Round of the Great Crisis. Whether it’s a US Debt Default, runaway inflation, or even food shortages and bank holidays, our reports cover how to get through these situations safely and profitably.

 

 

 


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Thu, 05/10/2012 - 22:40 | Link to Comment ghenny
ghenny's picture

I love these doom and gloom articles.  They make my day.  Not to worry the Europeans are great survivors.  They will figure out a way to get through all this and probably stick Uncle Sam with the bill as they successfully did for all the decolonization cleanup we got involved in.

 

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 20:20 | Link to Comment boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

I also think that much of what is being said is put out there as a warning to Irish voters who vote on the EMS in a referendum at the end of the month. 

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 19:48 | Link to Comment ParaZite
ParaZite's picture

Duct tape will only hold together a Hopium / Crack pipe for so long before it all falls apart in one hell of a mess. That's why they need a plan B, and C, and D for default. 

Just enough Duct tape to hold it together for the US elections to play out. Then the real fun will begin. 

My personal bets are BHO will win, people are sheep, deal with it... and we will go to war, I mean have a military action against Iran within 3 months of his re-election. If Romney wins, same thing, different president. 

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:42 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

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Thu, 05/10/2012 - 15:12 | Link to Comment BubbleBobble
BubbleBobble's picture

I read zerohedge via RSS and it has gotten to the point where I'm able to pick out Phoenix Capital's articles just by the flippant sensationalist headlines.

The earth could collide with the sun and they'd still manage to send out a report saying things are going to get worse.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 18:19 | Link to Comment smb12321
smb12321's picture

Although it's almost always a rehash of what everyone already knows, it is written in a style for those who do NOT read ZH or know the difference between debt and deficit or ask why we just can't print more money and give everyone a million.  Yes, it's redundant but then so is 9/10 of the stuff out here.

In fact, 99% of ZH articles are either debt (in all its wondrous variations), evil bankers, loss of liberty or foreign intervention. 

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 14:53 | Link to Comment steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

Spanish plan B should be the Spanish treasury issuing euros to retire euro-denominated debt. End of problem: see 'Greenbacks'.

Plan B would have debt and currency issue extinguishing each other. Any increase in the money supply would be from addition of more euros: see 'Irving Fisher-debt deflation'.

Spain could offer  €50 to everyone opening a bank account in a European bank not in Spain.

Spain would end the finance monopoly on liquidity and put the racketeers in their place.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 14:44 | Link to Comment e2thex
e2thex's picture
"If Spain's Problems Are Solved... Why Are They Putting Together "Plan B"?"

Answer: You always do Plan "B" before Plans "C", "D", and "E".

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 12:18 | Link to Comment NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Two waves coming to a country near you.

1.  Conservatives throw in the towel and allow increases in taxes (corporate first, voters second) 

2.  Once the taxing has run its course, only then will the entitlement programs start to be gutted and gutted they will have to be as we have all waited too long to fix them incrementally.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 18:43 | Link to Comment smb12321
smb12321's picture

I always ask those who call for higher and higher taxes, "What next?"  When even a 50% rate leaves a deficit of $800 billion, what next?  The answer is almost always, "Make it 60 (or 70 or 80)" without a thought as to why someone would continue working year after year under such conditions. It's the NOW syndrome without a thought for the day after tomorrow.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 12:02 | Link to Comment Nachdenken
Nachdenken's picture

There is no Plan B, what is in place will be adapted as necessary.  Listing the known negatives repeatedly does not change the direction of US, Japanese and European (including the UK) policy.

This is simply to keep the flow of funds for pension, püblic spending, social welfare committments and interest repayments recirculating across bonds in all forms and disguised open market operations indefinitely.  Greece, Spain, italy, many unmentnioned East European economies, are mere excuses in the self-feeding, self-sustaining loop that has decoupled from the real economy and is where inflation is concentrated.

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