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Greece Sneezes, The Euro Dies of Pneumonia! A Step-by-Step Guide To Pan-Euro, Bank Busting Contagion
On Monday, 23 April 2012 I posted "It's Official & As I Foretold Years Ago, Greece Is Now In A True Depression As Reality Hits Greek Banks", roughly 2 years after penning
How Greece Killed Its Own Banks!. Well, guess what!? The Wall Street Journal’s report, “Greek Depositors Withdrew $898 Million From Banks Monday”:
Greek depositors withdrew €700 million ($898 million) from the country's banks on Monday, fueling fears of a bank run amid the growing political disarray.
With deposits falling, Greek banks become even more dependent on the European Central Bank to meet their funding needs, exposing the central bank to potentially huge losses if Greece leaves the euro area.
Greek President Karolos Papoulias told the country's political leaders that bank withdrawals plus buy orders received by Greek banks for German bunds totaled some €800 million on Monday, a transcript of his comments said. A central bank official confirmed the figures.
Wait until a 2nd Greek default (virtually guaranteed as we supplied user downloadable models to see for yourself, the same model used to forecast the 1st default) mirrors history. Of the 181 yrs as a sovereign nation after gaining independence, Greece been in default 58 of them. Don't believe me! Check your history, or just read more BoomBustBlog - Sophisticated Ignorance Or Just A Very, Very Short Term Memory? Foolish Talk of German Bailouts Once Again...
Greece's default will hit an already bank NPA laden Spain quite hard: The Spain Pain Will Not Wane: Continuing the Contagion Saga and ditto with Italy "As We Assured Clients Two Years Ago, Italy's Riding The Broken Promise Express To Restructuring". Once Italy gets hit, the true bank runs will start as socialist France (the so-called half of the EU anchor) loses control of its bankinsg system. Reference "As The French Bank Runs....":
Saturday, 23 July 2011 The Anatomy Of A European Bank Run: Look At The Banking Situation BEFORE The Run Occurs!: I detail how I see modern bank runs unfolding
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Thursday, 28 July 2011 The Mechanics Behind Setting Up A Potential European Bank Run Trade and European Bank Run Trading Supplement
I identify specific bank run candidates and offer illustrative trade setups to capture alpha from such an event. The options quoted were unfortunately unavailable to American investors, and enjoyed a literal explosion in gamma and implied volatility. Not to fear, fruits of those juicy premiums were able to be tasted elsewhere as plain vanilla shorts and even single stock futures threw off insane profits.
Wednesday, 03 August 2011 France, As Most Susceptble To Contagion, Will See Its Banks Suffer
In case the hint was strong enough, I explicitly state that although the sell side and the media are looking at Greece sparking Italy, it is France and french banks in particular that risk bringing the Franco-Italia make-believe capitalism session, aka the French leveraged Italian sector of the Euro ponzi scheme down, on its head.
I then provide a deep dive of the French bank we feel is most at risk. Let it be known that every banked remotely referenced by this research has been halved (at a mininal) in share price! Most are down ~10% of more today, alone!
French Bank Run Forensic Thoughts - Retail Valuation Note - For retail subscribers- Bank Run Liquidity Candidate Forensic Opinion - A full forensic note for professional and institutional subscribers
I also provided a very informative document for public consumption which clearly detailed exactly how this French bank collapse thing is likely to go down: French Bank Run Forensic Thoughts - pubic preview for Blog - A freebie, to illustrate what all of you non-subscribers are missing!
So, What's the Next Shoe To Drop? Read on...
For those who claim I may be Euro bashing, rest assured - I am not. Just a week or two later, I released research on a big US bank that will quite possibly catch Franco-Italiano Ponzi Collapse fever, with the pro document containing all types of juicy details. This is the next big thing, for when (not if, but when) European banks blow up, it WILL affect us stateside! Subscribers, be sure to be prepared. Puts are already quite costly, but there are other methods if you haven't taken your positions when the research was first released. For those who wish to subscribe, click here.
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The Europeans are not stupid. They will find a way to fix Greece without it blowing up in their face. I guarantee you they will not pay the bill alone. We will be in there right with them. Helicopter Ben, Wall Street Geithner and Christine the Queen Lagarde will make sure of that.
How can the people stop them?
Keep on talking Euro down! Give it all you got, like you mean it this time!
Germans especially like this shit! Do it just like you did last time during summer 2010. That was a nice talkjob, thank you very much. This also helps those piggy piggy, naughty naughty southern European countries.
These "Euro is going down"-talks are like adding nitrous oxide to the engine of AMG Mercedes! Just feel and hear the power, it is like six lovely pussycats doing their GRRRRRR-thing. It is beautiful! :-)
Americans might not feel so good about this, the last thing they need is dollar going up. It is like a nail in the head.
Just remember, GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR :-----------)
Interesting video comparing 1929 Crash To Current Times - A View Of The 1929 Crash! - remarkable similarities.
Gold stocks were weaker than the price of gold for many months. We are now inthe first week that gold stocks are holding nicely against a continued decline in Bullion. For old timers this is one of the requirements for a base before a rally in the price of gold.
What is also needed is copper to stop declining than we are good to go......
" Beware of Greeks bearing gifts. " Pack all you fiat into home stored metals and call it good. Otherwiswe, stand in line for nothing but a stinky bankster finger, middle digit, upraised in the vertical position. Bankster announcement :"The bank is closed for a long holiday. All your dollars belongs to us, you 99 percenter trash ! "
You might also beware of Greeks accepting gifts.
SPAM !!
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Reggie Middleton is great!
I've always said that Greece wouldn't hit the US hard. It's the other european countries that would. You see our banks had to have been doing big business in europe right, and most of those had to be in the UK, France, Italy and Spain. And if those countries are having trouble that means ours will also.
Spain's the scary one and old Isabella must be spinning in her grave: there's no Columbus to send out this time.
aapl is down, goog is up.
How can you *ever* have a bank run when banks can print as much money they like by repoing OTC derivatives with the ECB in return for new EUR loans?
The deposits and transfers are all electronic anyway, cash withdrawals and deposits are limited due to "anti terror" legislation, so it is not like the banks will run out of paper money either.
"They" are way ahead of the ball on this one, the only time a bank blows up is when it becomes necessary to show the public that the "financial crisis" is still alive so more power must be given to the finansiers!
And the more they print, the more you have to fill up your wheelbarrow with.
The "money" are bits. The limit on how many bits you can have per wheelbarrow is ultimatly fixed by the planck length. One bit, or rather the storage space used for one bit, cannot be smaller than cube with a side lenght of 1.616199 × 10-35 meters.
That allegorical wheelbarrow will hold *a lot of bits*, even when the money is represented in the most wasteful form: cryptographic tokens.
Joking aside, the money never leaves the banking system because it cannot. Mr Papandreos sends his money to Zürich, Zürich sticks it in the ECB, ECB lends it right back to the bank it came from in the first place. Mr Papandreos becomes smart and buys Gold, boooyah, what he gets is an entry in a database saying he holds some Gold. Ghaddaffi was being uppity and bought physical, he gets a NATO bombing campaign and summarily execution. Gotta keep people in line!
The exstra money that is created - that should cause inflation. But it does not. There is a place where the overflow goes too, into the OTC-derivatives market - 700 Trillion USD of off-market "assets", this market is a black hole, the money cannot leave her either because there is no market for OTC-derivatives.
Sure we see the gravity waves when Vestas Wind Systems pop 12% in one day on the OMX-Nordic. But no writedowns, losses, or indeed bank runs. Losses is what happens to People, so the others will work harder, earn more interest.
The computerised money-economy is following Moores Law but it is isolated and quite independent from the real economy - which is carefully managed to extract as much interest as possible in return for as little as possible.
Thank you Reggie! Excellent analysis as always.
You're The Man, Reggie! I feel the sneeze all the way in my tiny town....stagnant wgaes, empty store fronts, vacant lots, too-many-to count "For Lease" signs, and soaring food and insurance costs....and to top it off, 0.06% on "High Yield Savings Accounts."
BOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!
And this money is being stored where? Mainly in safety deposit boxes in banks? Oh no!
That June meeting is for funeral arrangements. Actually it might be the funeral itself.
So this will happen when? June/July/Aug?
May. When G8 meet on the weekend 26/27. Whitsun long weekend in Europe.
I have been reading you from the beginning of time. U said two years ago this would kill the euro and tear the periphery apart.
I thought you were just exagerating for attention.
You rock reggie, in spite of your appl call lol
looooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooool
"You rock reggie, in spite of your appl call lol"