The Rise of Nationalism Will End the Euro Before Year's End

Phoenix Capital Research's picture


The following is an excerpt from my latest client letter.


The collapse of Europe is occurring just as I forecast. While the media and even the politicians are failing to admit it, the EU in its current form is already breaking up. Indeed, if you step back and observe things from a larger perspective, you can almost watch the process in slow motion.


The collapse is taking shape via three key developments:


  1. The Rise of Nationalism (see the recent Greek, French and German elections)


  1. The shift to focusing on “growth”/ rejection of “austerity” which is essentially a rejection of the EU contract and Maastricht Treaty


  1. The end of the dominant political alliances.


All of these developments are Euro negative. Indeed, they reveal the core problem with the EU as a concept: how can one unite very different countries with long histories of conflict under one economic and monetary regime?


The answer is that one cannot. Voters were willing to go along with the idea (or at least submit to it) while the going was good. However, now that the we’ve entered a secular downturn in global growth, particularly for the western world which suffers from massive debt overhangs and age demographic issues, we are going to see EU member states focus more on domestic issues rather than saving the “grand idea” of the Euro.


This refocusing on domestic issues is a natural political consequence of economic contraction: those politicians who implemented the measures that are now seen to be the cause of the downturn will be held accountable (see Sarkozy). New faces will enter the political arena along with “new” ideas (I use quotations because few if any politicians in the EU have a clue what they’re really dealing with).


However, now that the concept of a “union” is seen as the root cause of EU members’ economic woes, there is the risk that some of those new political faces and new political ideas will be nationalistic if not outright hostile to the concept of any union at all (see France’s first round of elections as well as Greece’s recent parliamentary elections which we’ll address later on these pages).


Regarding the rise of Nationalism, I can tell you from first hand experience that this notion is not to be dismissed. I travelled to France to witness the second round of the Presidential elections. And I can tell you that the mainstream media’s interpretation of this event is missing the point.


True, on the surface the results appear innocuous enough (France has a Socialist President again). However, it is not who won the election, but the change in political tide currently occurring in France that matters most. I’m not talking about socialism either.


Let me paint the picture.


The French election results were announced at 8PM in France. My wife and I were on the Avenue de Champs-Élysées (the road leading to the Arc de Triumph) from roughly 8:20 to 10:00PM. The below images show just what we saw:


8:20PM: every single vehicle in the above image was honking its horn incessantly. Passengers in cars were waving flags (I’ve circled on in the above image) or hanging out the windows yelling and singing. However traffic was still relatively light.


Things began to reach a crescendo around 9-9:30PM. By that time the sound of car horns was deafening. The street was jammed as drivers temporarily parked their cars at intersections, then left them to cheer, yell, or simply smoke cigarettes as the young man atop the white car in the below image is doing.



Traffic could barely move. It was as though Parisian youth decided to hold a giant block party without bothering to actually shut down the street. And while the situation never actually became riotous the underlying tensions were obvious.


Parisian youth, like most young people in the EU, have been hit hardest by the Crisis: youth unemployment across the 17 nations using the Euro is at 22%; in France it’s nearly 25%. In Spain and Greece it’s north of 50%.


The result of this is that young people feel that the political elite and older generations voted for a bunch of policies that have proven disastrous. These youth are angry. And a young angry population can very easily go from being simply “anti-the current establishment” to outright hostile very, very easily as we’ve seen in Greece.


In France, the celebration of Hollande’s victory was as much if not even more about defeating Sarkozy than electing Francoise Hollande. True, Hollande has offered some new policies to attempt to rein in youth unemployment. But these policies simply represent more of the same ideas that brought about the Crisis to begin with (more Government jobs with more benefits which increase the debt overhang).


Thus, in many regards, people see Sarkozy’s defeat as a victory for France not socialism. As one woman I spoke to put it, “I do not think it’s a dramatic change at all… it’s about getting rid of Sarkozy. He has done such terrible things to this country.”


Indeed, even the numbers show that the victory was anything but dramatic: Hollande took 51% of the vote while Sarkozy took 48%. And while the media makes a big deal of the fact that Sarkozy is only the second incumbent French President to be defeated since WWII, the fact is that France has essentially gone from one career politician who was ostentatious and outwardly classist (Sarkozy once called a French farmer a “loser” and openly associated with France’s wealthy) to one that is similarly wealthy (Hollande owns over $1.5 million in property) but simply more understated in his lifestyle.


For that reason, the victory of Francois Hollande, while having significant implications for the EU in of itself (more on this later in this issue), does not paint the full picture of what is really happening in France.


So let’s dig a little deeper.


French Presidential elections take place in two rounds. During the first round, voters will vote for anyone running. The two candidates who receive the most votes will then proceed to the second round, the winner of which will become France’s President.


Hollande and Sarkozy were the winners of the first round. But as the final tally in the second round revealed (51% vs. 48%) voters weren’t exactly thrilled with either one of them.


Instead, the major development in the French elections was the fact that the hard right, anti-Euro, anti-immigration party, the Front National Party, or NFP, took the most votes from French youth.


That is correct. When it came time to vote in round one, more French youth voted for a party whose leader wants to break up the Euro, who wants to deal with immigration by ending dual citizenship, affirmative action, and by kicking out any immigrant who cannot adhere to French principles or who commits a crime, and who once compared the legal French tolerance of Muslims praying in the streets to putting up with Nazi occupation.


Oh, and her father, who founded the NFP, wanted to do away with the concept of immigration completely and once commented that Germany’s occupation of France during WWII was “not particularly inhumane…”

That is the party that took in the most votes from French youth during round one of the French elections. And French youth were not the only ones leaning towards Nationalism.


Indeed, the NFP took in 20% of ALL French votes during the first round of the French elections. That’s a record high for the party and not far off from Sarkozy’s and Hollande’s first round showings of 25% and 28% respectively.


Again, Nationalism is on the rise in France. And it’s not over by any stretch. France will be holding elections for its lower house, the National Assembly, on June 10th and June 17th.


Right now the socialists are in the lead to win, leaving the loosely organized center-right party, Union for a Popular Movement (UMP), with the following options:


  1. Join forces with the NFP to take the control of the National Assembly, or…
  2. Hand France completely over to the Socialists


I cannot say how this will play out. But for now, we must take into account that there is a very real possibility that the NFP may take control of France’s lower house.

IF this happens and Francois Hollande proves to be a Presidential dud, then it is not a stretch to imagine that the NFP will gain even more traction in French politics.


This is just one of numerous Euro negative developments taking place today. On that note, if you have not taken steps to prepare for the end of the EU (and its impact on the US and global banking system), you NEED TO DO SO NOW!


I recently published a report showing investors how to prepare for this. It’s called How to Play the Collapse of the European Banking System and it explains exactly how the coming Crisis will unfold as well as which investment (both direct and backdoor) you can make to profit from it.


This report is 100% FREE. You can pick up a copy today at:


Good Investing!


Graham Summers


PS. We also feature numerous other reports ALL devoted to helping you protect yourself, your portfolio, and your loved ones from the Second Round of the Great Crisis. Whether it’s a US Debt Default, runaway inflation, or even food shortages and bank holidays, our reports cover how to get through these situations safely and profitably.


And ALL of this is available for FREE under the OUR FREE REPORTS tab at:


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Atlantis Consigliore's picture

Eurozone, Euros?   be like ICELAND


wsj report:


IN European Crises: ICELAND; Emerges as an Island in the Recovery


first the people threw the politicans out; and repudicated debt. to the banks...

debts?  we dont need no stinking debts

say hello to my little friend...Iceland.  the model 


Ireland anyone? 


Atlantis Consigliore's picture

Be like Eurozone???  


Be like ICELAND...debts?  we dont pay no stinking Debts....let the banks eat it.


in Euopean Crises; ICELAND emberges as an Island of Recovery  


we dont need no stinking bank debts.....

Elmer Fudd's picture

Did Graham miss the part that no matter who you vote into office, the politician then turns into a prostituute and is bought by TPTB?

Jack Sheet's picture

Where the heck is Rubber Scrota when you need him?

shuckster's picture

God Bless France! Vote Nationalist

Snakeeyes's picture

Governments are playing "The Spanish Prisoner Con" with taxpayers.

Spain, Greece, Portugal, France and the US are the masters of "The Spanish Prisoner" con.

the tower's picture

Mr.Summers. You have no clue about Europe. Stay home.


Oh, and stop "investing". Try setting up a real business and actually build something instead of leeching off other people's money.

DavidC's picture

I don't think it's a cut and dry as that.

There was a very interesting programme on the UK's BBC2 earlier this week. Michael Portillo went to Greece (and other countries) and spoke with a wide range of different people from its Finance Minister Lucas Papademos to a builder and people preparing free food - he presented them with a Drachma and Euro note, asking which they would prefer. They all said the Euro.

(Available until Monday - not sure if it's viewable outside the UK)


Peter Pan's picture

No one disputes the convenience ofthe Euro. What is in dispute the horrific trade imbalances and insurmountable natonal debts that are causing the EU to slowly disintegrate.

The Alarmist's picture

BBC has about as much truthiness and relevance as the old Soviet Pravda.

Silberadler's picture

Oh No, Graham,

Not again.

So you have been to zee 'E-U'.

Paris, France. Fine.

As for what you saw in Paris: (to repeat)

That is just a *normal* party.
No worries my French friends sure know how to celebrate.

Maybe you got this wrong in your paranoia.

Should've gone to a bar for a Pastis and congregate with folks.

Did you ?

Oh by the way: I would be bewildered if the French weren't Nationalists.
Never been anything else.

If you talk to the people - and I usually have a chat if I stop for a coffe on my tours an hava a chat.
All folks alike in Europe, French, German, Italian - you name it - bitch about the Euro.
No one really likes it. No one I talked to at least.

Everyone pretty much sees it as a big fraud and fail.
No one likes the politicians either.
For most it is a choice between bad an worrse.

The numbnuts in the governments simply dont get it and spoil more the more they try to 'fix things'.

You hardly know who to vote for.

And now on to Sarkozy:
Sarko is an embarrasment for la Grande Nation.
This little hyperactive midget belongs into a closed psychiatry station but not to Elysee.

That's why he got kicked out.
People were just fed up.

No wonder they party like after s successful match win of Les Bleues.

Sorry your wife did not get the fun part...

(Panicking Amerobese female !??)

Greeetings from zee Kollapse E-U.

Enjoy while it lasts

Peter Pan's picture

Europe is toast because thre are neither any strong leaders nor any cohesive policies to deal with the rotten garbage of the past and the unfunded epectations of the future. Incredible debt overhang, imbalanced trade, looming demogrphic issues, nationalism and that slight problem of unemployment will prevent any real traction from taking place.

Of course there will be more smoke and mirrors, but everyone knows the mirrors are cracked and the smoke is simply a sign that a fire has begun.

Zero Govt's picture

what do you expect "strong leaders" to bring you?

anyone ever seen a political leader, or central banker, that can deliver a strong economy in history???

jonjon831983's picture

I can imagine what Phoenix Capital told his wife:

"Honey, I'm so in love with you... it is our anniversary and I have a special trip planned for us.  We shall go to the city of love and romance...  We shall go to Paris."

Wife: "<3!!!"




Wife: "WTF! Why are you bringing me to see this stuff?"


The Alarmist's picture

If he had pictures of burning cars on the Place Charles de Gaulle directly in front of the Arc de Triomphe, it might raise people's interest. This was just a traffic jam, seemingly less menacing than a New Jersey Giants win celebration.

malikai's picture

Thank god you posted this. I was worried it would actually happen.

The Alarmist's picture

Wow, a bunch of fairly decent cars (better looking than most of what I saw on the streets of NYC last week) are on the streets of Paris, and they are honking and stopped.

It's the end of the world as we know it, but strangely enough, I feel fine.

Nussi34's picture

These cars have about the power of a moped and the size of a stroller! And all look very gay!

Papasmurf's picture

And you can park them in an underground garage without spending ten minutes negotiating concrete pillars.  They run all week an a few literes of petrol.  They don't have the overtaking power or fuel waste of your hummer. So what.  Find a cheaper penis subsitute, unless you define yourself by your truck.

andrewp111's picture

Indeed, they reveal the core problem with the EU as a concept: how can one unite very different countries with long histories of conflict under one economic and monetary regime?


It can be done with imperial federalism, which is the other option for saving Europe. A New Roman Empire can draft all those unemployed youth into a new imperial army, and conquer the oil producing lands of the Middle East. The ECB can wait until the moment of maximum crisis and then take emergency steps for the full political union of Europe under a new Dictatorship. It is natural for all political leaders to want to stay in power, and I have no doubt that the ECB wants to stay in power. There is no guarantee that nationalism will win out over the dreams of greater glory.

Papasmurf's picture

So you're proposing more theft as a solution to massive theft.  It works for the 0.1% who steal from those who produce while producing nothing of value for anyone.  We need more critical thinkers like you.

Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

I go to Europe a lot on business, mostly Germany.  Most are in denial about what is happening or simply don't pay much attention to it.  But after I asked, "So you will bail out Spain and Italy then?" A few of them shrugged and said the Euro will not end, but Germany and Austria may be the only countries left with it.  Now that was a thought worth pondering...

sunnyside's picture

I've kind of felt it would be the other way around, but what the hell do I know, I like to drink heavily. 

Like a person on welfare, Greece, Spain, Portugal, etc., won't leave while getting bailed out, but will have to be either thrown out, or the stronger (like Germany) will start to leave until there is nobody left with a sound economy.  I imagine whatever way it goes (just like the inflation vs deflation debate), when it happens it will snowball quick.

I just wish it would get there.  This is the longest train wreck I've ever seen and I'm running out of popcorn.



andrewp111's picture

In that case the Euro is transformed into a New Reichsmark.

Nussi34's picture

Reichsmark sounds much better than Euro!

Nachdenken's picture

Eureichsmark it will be.

Nussi34's picture

Euro will be renamed to PIG-Mark, Germany & Austria will introduce the Reichsmark!

jwoop66's picture

Nationalism will probably save Europe.  They'll have to figure out how to resolve conflicts without rushing to war like in Old Europe, but nationalism is human nature; it's natural.

The way they dealt with what they saw as a problem(nationalism) was  to force everyone together under the same system and they used laws to suppress nationalism and old group allegiences.  People want to be with their own kind, whatever that may be.  National, racial, political, ethnic etc.    To deny that is to suppress it.  Suppression doesn't work.  It will boil over eventually.

Matt's picture

Hollande is wealthy because he has $1.5 million in property? This guy has a pretty low standard for wealth. Anyone who fully owns a house in West Vancouver is as wealthy as Hollande. Anyone who saved for retirement should have at least that much total assets. This isn't the 1920s; a Millionaire isn't a wealthy person anymore. 

Papasmurf's picture

You cannot retire with 1.5 million in total assets.  The fed/treasury/politicians will wipe that out. 

lasvegaspersona's picture


what if the 1.5M was held in gold?

It has a chance of significant appreciation...or even a huge increase if there is a revaluation of currency.

El's picture

A millionaire is still a wealthy person to me.  Invested with only a 3% return, I could easily live off only the interest. Then again, I'm not into having all the latest gadgets, and my 4 year old paid for Honda Accord LX looks and runs great. I've already got enough Chanel in my closet and makeup bag to last me a lifetime. My ideal vacation is staying at home and playing in the dirt, not jetting off to Cancun or cruising the Bahamas. I simply can't think of one thing I want or need.

Well, more guns and ammo might be nice. :) wasn't me who downvoted you. Everyone has a different world view and perception of wealth. Mine just doesn't happen to be all tied up in things I can buy with money.

Elmer Fudd's picture

Hahahaha, if you invest in something today with a 3% return, I'd lay odds you will suffer capital losses greater than that coupon over the life of whatever paper you invested in.

Angelic Upstart's picture

NFP won 20% of the vote but I bet there is absolutely no let up on immigration. It could be that by the time Hollande is voted out, say after two terms, that a large minority of French youth are of North African origin. Then what happens?

andrewp111's picture

There is no way Hollande will last 2 terms unless conditions dramatically improve. But emergency federal union under a new ECB managed dictatorship is a very real alternative to nationalism, and could happen before the middle of  Hollande's first term.

ISEEIT's picture

I think you are full of shit.

We shall soon see the largest to date 'globally coordinated' 'market intervention' (ha-ha) in history. They intend to 'surprise' the the world with a magical, unprecedented, bold, historic.....blah, blah, blah stick save. The year will go magically green.

Now get your ass back on FB and stop messin' with the grown folk!

apberusdisvet's picture

What makes this analyst think that the Rothschild/Rockefeller NWO folks won't fight back?  After all the Euro is the first phase of their agenda.  And they have the CIA and NATO to do their bidding to create the next round of chaos.

It aint over til it's over.

The Heart's picture

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Thank you in advance for your benevolence and generosity.

toady's picture

The EU always seemed like a useless entity to me. I remember when it was first coming together, how they kept saying 'easing border restrictions and a common currency will help commerce'.

Maybe it did for a while, but now in troubled times the first thing they want to do is reinstate border controls and force troubled countries out of the common currency.

Bad idea from the very start. England was wise to opt out.

andrewp111's picture

England recognized the Euro as "a burning building with no exits" back in the later 1990s.

Zero Govt's picture

Westminster had no wisdom to stay out the Euro, it was purely London bankers greedy interests

Westminster contnued with the political union (treason) showed pure contempt for any referendum (from all 3 Parties) and has continued to increase the contributions despite the EU's obvious impending collapse

Sterling is just as doomed as the Euro and US Dollar, it's the same debt-spending jackasses across the West

disabledvet's picture

eh..."haven't even scratched the surface." you simply have no understanding of BANKING. These are NOT the monolithic institutions you all make them out to be "in these here parts." in fact you want them to be "nice a quiet" instead of what's going on right now with "whales exploding in London," the IPO's "blowing up the IPO and the launch pad"--media running wild with Gong Show financial shows, politicians just cutting checks without a clue or any interest in getting one either. Simply put "the banks will cease to exist." Ironically enough "this is happening in Europe first." What has happened in Greece is a bank ATTACK. Capital has been COMPLETELY DRAINED from the Greek financial system. What are they going to borrow against to get alone to the salaries of their public work force? hahahahahaha...NOTHING! "well, there goes your state then." The FIRST thing you do is NATIONALIZE THE BANKS. That will be coming shortly...perhaps as early as Monday would be my guess. France and Spain will "kick this thing off" as they actually can do this. This obviously cannot happen in Greece, Ireland or Portugal. You will be surprised at who else won't be able to do this! Italy? With the 4th largest debt to GDP in the world? GOOD LUCK! Canada? Even Switzerland or London? BIG TROUBLE! Scotland looks okay here...and that's about it! And THIS will be your contagion. BofA will have to nationalized in the USA once this ball gets rolling. Now you have a GOVERNMENT BANK. Trust me! Your deposits are now safe..."but it sucks to be Rhode Island"! Then "the true scope of the lunacy at Chase-Morgan" ("what da ya mean what guy did all this?????") will be exposed. Will the Federal Government of the United States be able to continue its check kiting scheme? hahahahahaha! DOUBTFUL! Still like equities in here though as "Tim Geithner has to ask Bill Gross for a loan the entirety of the Federal Government"! Needless to say New York City will be forced into bankruptcy immediately "as their Facebook winnings simply didn't materialize, etc...etc...

falak pema's picture

I see you haven't digested your onion soup !

Jack Sheet's picture

Each of Graham Bummer's posts is 90% copy and paste from previous ones. The free special reports recommend ultraleveraged ETFs.

philipat's picture

He can't copy and paste 100% because he needs to change his predicted Euro collapse date. In his last prediction it was May/June. This has now changed to "By year end". Pathetic.

Zero Govt's picture

and it'll be further out than that by year end

billybobtx's picture

He put several banks in this report, a very good report IMO.

Element's picture

What makes you think the status-quo mainstream politicans are any less radical or any less dangerous though?

The only real difference is that you're accustomed to mainstream politicans, know their speil, their positions, their face, their lies, like their polis, feel more comfortable with them, plus the MSM will still put them to air with an applique of false-'decency', providing them a fig-leaf to show their face in public for another round of lies.

Otherwise, they are every bit as dangerous as any 'radical' reactionary boogeymen, who generally and mostly want them out, gone, finito.

It is the mainstream that took us to war in WWII, kept us on the edge of oblivion during the Cold War, took us to Vietnam, setup Destert Storm, invaded Afghan, invaded Iraq, 'invaded' Libya, spread insurgency, took away our civil rights ... because, in actual fact;