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As I've Been Warning Since 2010, the EU is Finished

Phoenix Capital Research's picture




 

 

The EU is about to crumble.

 

Discussions of Greece leaving the EU are openly being discussed by EU leaders as I write this.

 

Far worse than that, the relationship between the two largest EU economies (Germany and France) is collapsing.

 

France, now run by a Socialist, is pushing for "growth" (AKA debt) while Germany and the ECB are about tapped out in terms of supplying funding.

 

Indeed, if Germany goes ahead with more funding of the EU it will most assuredly lose its AAA rating. That will mark the end of the EU as there will literally no longer be an AAA rated entity large enough to fund additional bailouts.

 

Here's the facts:

 

1) If Greece leaves, Spain or Italy will definitely

either default or threaten to leave (they've seen

that bailouts in exchange for austerity don't work).

 

2) Germany and France will not agree on what

to do because there simply isn't the money. The EU

in general is too leveraged with far too much debt.

 

All of these spell Game Over for the EU. And remember, the EU banking system is $46 trillion in size, nearly FOUR TIMES that of the US.

 

So when the EU banking system collapses, it's going to take a large chunk of the US and the rest of the global banking system with it.

 

So if you are not preparing for this, YOU NEED TO DO SO NOW.

 

I recently published a report showing investors how to prepare for this. It’s called How to Play the Collapse of the European Banking System and it explains exactly how the coming Crisis will unfold as well as which investment (both direct and backdoor) you can make to profit from it.

 

This report is 100% FREE. You can pick up a copy today at: http://www.gainspainscapital.com

 

Good Investing!

 

Graham Summers

 

PS. We also feature numerous other reports ALL devoted to helping you protect yourself, your portfolio, and your loved ones from the Second Round of the Great Crisis. Whether it’s a US Debt Default, runaway inflation, or even food shortages and bank holidays, our reports cover how to get through these situations safely and profitably.

 

And ALL of this is available for FREE under the OUR FREE REPORTS tab at: http://www.gainspainscapital.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Wed, 05/23/2012 - 22:11 | 2457497 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

I like the doom and gloom, mainly because I agree with it. Thing is most people have the patience of a 2 year old. They go short and lose once and now all of a sudden the person that preaches the end is an idiot. No one here can say with certainty what the outcome will be but there is no doubt the big picture sucks.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 19:05 | 2456977 skepticCarl
skepticCarl's picture

Graham, I've been reading your stuff for more than a year.  I have a question:  Do you think that Greece might leave the European Union?  And will this have any repurcussions, in countries like Spain or Italy?  I anxiously await your answer.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 18:09 | 2456817 ATM
ATM's picture

Sorry Graham but I have been saying since 2008 that the EU/Euro will not break apart. They will Federalize and they will print.

So far I win. I think that trend continues.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 22:37 | 2457570 Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

Let's suppose you are right "They will Federalize and they will print." Do they print EURO's or some new currency? and then what?

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 19:29 | 2457027 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

The trend is not your friend.   When it can't continue forever it will stop, and often reverse.

To wit:   The European can kicking you've seen up to now was only possible because

  - Greece is very small, i.e. it was a pretty small can to kick, so worth a try

  - because so many assumed this recession would be followed by recovery, as has happened so many times since the last big european war.

The last bit is not working out.   All the rosy recovery assumptions underpinning more forbearance, more lending, more facilities are so far off, so far, as to render further such rosy projection ludicrous on the surface, to all observers.    Everyone knows Greece is a basket case, and will default. 

Everyone can see much bigger Spain and Italy, or "Can 2" and "Can 3" looking less like little tin cans than like hefty toxin filled 55G steel drums which will merely, very evidently, and very immediately, generate a lot of pain in the toes, before spilling their toxic content just about as immediately all over the joint.

Europe will not federate under these conditions.  Nationalism, as it has for so many centuries, will come back to the fore in a heartbeat.   Socialist parties will shift rhetoric to nationalist socialism.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 16:46 | 2456551 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

This post smacks of desperation.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 20:46 | 2457216 NewWorldOrange
NewWorldOrange's picture

It sure does. Sloppy, nothing new, just gloom and doom for it's own sake (got to sell those reports and pay the bills and that's fine but there are other ways to do it. Graham, or perhaps someone with some editorial control, needs to show more respect for the readers.)

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 16:33 | 2456509 Elwood P Suggins
Elwood P Suggins's picture

And you'll warn again in 2022, 2032 etc as long as you're alive and you'll be just a totally fucking wrong then as you have been so far.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 16:17 | 2456436 granolageek
granolageek's picture

Am I the only one that automatically discounts posts from people who don't distinguish between the European Union and the EuroZone?

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 19:31 | 2457038 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

There are probably a lot of other Koolaid afficinados like yourself that don't get how these two are fundamentally linked as one project.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 15:54 | 2456326 Nussi34
Nussi34's picture

Former Brazilian president Lula after a visit to Europe: "I always thought the Mercusur was a mess, but then I visitied the EU".

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 08:56 | 2458420 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Yep, nothing quite like Govt to make a complete mess of everything it touches

A miniscule few think it's a really bad idea and history shows Govt never works... most others want to twiddle the nobs (re-arrange the deckchairs) and think they can fix it ...the majority are usually completely wrong and boy are they badly wrong on this tragic topic

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 15:22 | 2456190 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

So France wasn't socialist until Hollande came along?

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 19:36 | 2457052 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Even the "far right" in France is socialist.   They're nationalist socialists.   But Hollande and cie will be co-opting some of those far right planks when this crisis pushes the government there to nationalise banks and insurance companies and pension funds.    "France First" policies.    In case you didn't notice France has been in for the EU and Euro and so on up to now only to the degree it can amplify France's influence and security.   That's over now, or will be VERY soon.   So they'll get back to "raison d'etat" explicitly and sell it that way demagogically to the public in mirror image to their current machiavellian spin of multi-culti europeanism.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 15:15 | 2456158 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

They Euro dopes will decide that they will go it alone without Germany, and since it really boils down to who runs the printing press, no problem.

Till it BLOWS UP IN THEIR FACES.

Germany is the only credible player and it's debt to GDP isn't that great either.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 14:58 | 2456083 walküre
walküre's picture

Discussions of Greece leaving the EU are openly being discussed by EU leaders as I write this.

Sounds like the plan they're planning to plan for a plan.

Is your head spinning yet? Must be from all the Coneurofusion we're witnessing.

Graham, you're right. THERE IS NO PLAN.

But there was no plan when the EURO was introduced and a common currency w/o a common tax system and a common finance ministry hasn't bothered the initiators back then either. Now that the shit is hitting the fan, they're starting to talk about it. Speak about putting a cart before the horse.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 15:44 | 2456256 JeffB
JeffB's picture

I don't see why they couldn't have a common currency without a common tax system and without any sort of finance ministry. From my point of view the problem was using fiat as their currency.

Had they used real money, like gold or silver, or at least paper currency backed by real money and set up the free trade zones, and similar reforms it should have worked fine. Assuming, of course, they also did away with any special government involvement in saving failed banks or any other businesses that failed. Of course, had they had true money for their transactions, the banks and other institutions, not to mention the citizens, would have had a far more stable economy, and large scale failures would be far less likely.

It was the fiat induced boom that in turn brought about the inevitable bust after all.

Slow steady growth is far better for an economy and its citizens than the risks and uncertainties of the boom bust cycles, even though some people profit enormously from them (ie. central bankers, political insiders and their families, friends and lackeys, for instance).

Every country, every region, every family and every individual just has to adjust to reality and live within their means. If they don't, they must live with the consequences. Ditto for those who loan them the savings, either their own, or those others have entrusted to them to invest wisely.

Instead, we're going down the same tragic road the governments followed during The Great Depression.

 

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 14:48 | 2456061 silverserfer
silverserfer's picture

I just got back from the EU and it wa so crazy duh duh duh duh duh. ..

like there were youths n stuff duh duh duh duh duh...

deflation duh duh duh duh duh

subscribe to my monthly ramblings duh duh duh duh duh. 

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 14:41 | 2456033 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Germany is in a bind, either they agree (along with the other Northern countries) to unlimited funding of the PIIGS with either Eurobonds or the establishment of the ESM as a "Fed" for Europe OR they continue to do the piecemeal bailouts as countries sink further into the red OR they start kicking countries out OR, they get out themselves while the getting is good.  Kicking out Greece looks like the best option if they can "ringfence" the others...ie throw big money one time, buy a year and hope that things get better...they won't be able to just kick out Greece as Portugal and then Spain and then Italy know they will have the Euro by the small hairs...real mess, and every day they don't take a path down one road or the other, the more likely they get hit by a truck at the crossroads...

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 14:32 | 2455985 AmazingLarry
AmazingLarry's picture

Is there an app that will block out all of this guy's posts on this site? Seriously, e-fuckin-nuff already! Aaaahaaaaaaa! Shuuuut up!

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 15:06 | 2456119 Born-Again Bankster
Born-Again Bankster's picture

No, but there are several buttons you don't have to press that can prevent you from reading and then posting comments about it. 

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 21:28 | 2457360 brettd
brettd's picture

Does anyone know Summers?

Has anyone every seen him/her?  Met him/her?  Even seen or heard he/she on TV/Radio?

I've scoured the web for a picture, bio/cv or video of Graham Summers and have found nothing.

Or is Graham Summers a Tyler Durden-like front?

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 14:31 | 2455979 MGA_1
MGA_1's picture

Looks like the EU's gonna make it...

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 16:16 | 2456432 JeffB
JeffB's picture

... to Friday, at least.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 14:24 | 2455959 phalfa5
phalfa5's picture

PS  We also feature numerous other reports ALL devoted to helping you protect ourselves, our portfolio and our loved ones from the Second Round of the Great Crisis.....  blah  blah  blah   sign up fpr our free fluff piece that helps us sell you our ....    blah   blah  blah    like a phoenix, rising form a pile of smoldering ........

 

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 14:12 | 2455907 JamesBond
JamesBond's picture

Here's the facts

======

 

Here are the facts....

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 15:54 | 2456329 dynomutt
dynomutt's picture

As much as it makes me cringe, "Here's the facts" could probably be categorized as informal prose rather than being truly non-standard.

 

This link describes the use of "There's" in lieu of "There are" as being correct, albeit informal:

http://itre.cis.upenn.edu/~myl/languagelog/archives/002447.html

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 14:38 | 2456025 The Reich
The Reich's picture

Jet again, confusing facts  with fiction.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 14:00 | 2455860 itisthetimethis...
itisthetimethisistheplace's picture

One day Graham will be right. Until then, move along...same old, same old.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 16:31 | 2456499 Rasna
Rasna's picture

Right...

He's really a sock puppet for the eTrade Baby...

Broken clock is right twice a day...

Move along sonny, nuthin to see here

 

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 17:38 | 2456722 kito
kito's picture

stop picking on graham, he saved tylers life............

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 15:44 | 2456290 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Unfortunately the more Graham posts the less likely it seems the day will ever come when he will be right, broken clocks notwithstanding.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 16:01 | 2456365 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

he promised stock market collapse by may/june 2012  

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 11:28 | 2458968 forexskin
forexskin's picture

at least he managed to get his repetitive drivel out in about half the words this time - that's about the only way i can see to measure progress in his message.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 13:47 | 2455784 XitSam
XitSam's picture

The Fed is going to put the printers into overdrive if the Euro is going to be saved. Because if they don't, who will?

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 15:15 | 2456160 JeffB
JeffB's picture

Isn't Germany the only holdout on printing, printing, & more printing? Or at least the only one of consequence?

Why can't they do it? I think we're running low on 1s & 0s.

 

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 19:52 | 2457101 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

History.   All Germans are familiar with it, at least as regard printing schemes go.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 20:34 | 2457199 JeffB
JeffB's picture

Yeah, I realize that. I was being a bit facetious, but then again, who knows?

Someone had posted a link to a video on here a day or two ago to a video that I thought was hosted by Niall Ferguson. He must have been involved somehow as the 3 participants referred to him occasionally as if he had spoken just before them.

Anyway, the lady hosting the discussion seemed to think the recent German regional elections favored a couple of parties that held staying in the EU as a higher priority than fighting inflation or the moral hazard of bailing out other countries. She seemed to think that the German people weren't as hostile to the idea as media accounts indicated.

I have no idea if she was all wet or not on that issue, and I tended to think they were all too influenced by mainstream economic theory ... ie. more deficit spending would spur growth or at least help against a collapse, but it did pique my curiosity a bit as to where the German people stand with regard to a Eurobond or with more printing in an effort to resuscitate the EU.

 

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