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4th Quarter Earnings Will be an Unmitigated Disaster

EconMatters's picture




 

 

By EconMatters

 

Stocks setup for fall


It is ironic that stocks are at five years highs going into what is probably going to be the biggest disappointment of an earning`s season since the 2008 financial crisis. We got a hint of 4th quarter results during the disaster which was the 3rd quarter earning`s season where most companies missed on the revenue side, and those that beat EPS guidance, did so barely, and most of that was created through stock buybacks and creative smoothing techniques.

 

 

Make no mistake when a public company sets earning`s guidance these are numbers that are very conservative, and they expect to blow these numbers away given a healthy business environment. When a company just barely hits or beats the EPS number, and misses on revenue you know they were buying back stock, and trying any possible financial trick to attain the EPS number. One of the oldest tricks on Wall street, besides giving easy guidance so that when it comes time for earning`s the stock shoots up because they “beat” expectations.

 

The fact that companies have to struggle so much just to meet expectations tells how bad things are from a corporate profit standpoint. They have cut their operations to the bone for the last three years, and built earnings up from the bottom, and that strategy has reached its point of exhaustion. No more to be squeezed out of that cost cutting strategy.

 

The Fiscal Cliff


Moreover, with the continual uncertainty coming out of Washington from a policy perspective, code word the Fiscal Cliff, it`s unlikely that CEO`s committed much towards year end discretionary CAP EX purchases which would spur corporate growth during the fourth quarter. So expect to hear the term Fiscal Cliff during Earning`s season quite a lot as the primary excuse for business headwinds by the executive teams during conference calls.

 

Further Reading - Rich Santelli Is Right!


Deja Vu


Last quarter stocks were at these same levels, and companies started missing and no one wanted to sell hoping that they would get better earning`s reports, but firms just kept missing, and getting taken down one by one while the market stayed afloat at elevated levels.

 

Then more and more firms were missing on the same days, the big boys started missing, and finally the shorts were going to take multiple firms stocks down on the same day, and Wall Street pumpers threw in the proverbial towel on an options expiration Friday of all days, and took prices down to the next level in most stocks.

 

In other words, they tried to ignore the bad earnings and keep the rally alive, but the shorts are going to punish bad earning`s regardless of bullish sentiment.

 

Expect the same pattern of behavior as most fund managers are sheep and too stupid to actually get out before earnings season starts, and buy after the inevitable selloff. They wait and hope and once one big player unloads they all run for the exits at the same time leaving quite a carnage in stocks along the way.

One benefit is that short sellers can get some very cheap puts and establish some very attractive entry points for the inevitable ride back below 1400 in the S&P 500.

 

The Debt Fight


Moreover, with the upcoming fight over increasing the debt limit just around the corner expect quite a sizable selloff in markets which sends everybody back into the comforts of bonds teasing bond vigilantes once again, and reminding everyone including the fed that we really are still in a deflationary, deleveraging cycle that will not turn until true growth based upon sound financial principles are in place in Washington.

 

Washington is the biggest reason this economy has taken so long to recover from the financial crisis in 2008. And their ineptitude has caused the fed to overcompensate with an unprecedented and borderline extreme monetary solution which remains to be seen what the eventual unintended consequences are of said policy.

 

As this is new territory for the fed, and a grand experiment which economists will be analyzing for the next 50 years of academic study as to the ultimate costs & benefits to our society.

 

Cost cutting versus top-line growth


Corporations have had to watch costs the last three years, work their employees longer hours, control costs from an operational standpoint, i.e., operate more efficiency and take advantage of low financing and borrowing costs to manufacture earnings where they can through stock buybacks and creative use of capital.

 

But the one thing that hasn`t been present for corporations is an environment where the economy is robust and we are adding 500,000 jobs a month to the economy, and they can afford to hire and grow profits from the top line through new growth opportunities.

 

Expect to see the 4th quarter earning`s season reflective of squeezing all that can be had from the bottom line over the last three years, and the lack of true growth opportunities, which showed its ugly head during the 3rd quarter earnings results, make a pronounced appearance this earning`s season.

 

Fund Managers are slow learners


Stocks will get hit hard as shorts take down the earning`s misses one by one, until the fund managers get the hint, and start selling before the shorts eat into their profits, and start dumping everything mid-way through this earning`s season.

 

The excuses will be prevalent, all pointing to a lack of certainty out of Washington, but the real reason is that you can only cut your way to profits for so long before you need actual real growth in the economy, and apart from the slight uptick from the bottom in the housing market, the rest of the economy is just not robust enough to produce earning`s growth that is reflective of top line opportunities. 

 

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Sun, 01/06/2013 - 16:14 | 3127534 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Q2 and Q3 were an exercise in growing earnings (firing anything non-essential) and growing revenue (stuffing channels).

 

NASDAQ100 is diverging from SP500.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/nasdaq100-weekly-climbs-5-simply-astoun...

 

This market will try to push higher to vacuum in as many buyers as possible.  Lots of "buy now for dividend income" articles out there.  Be safe.  Be on the sidelines and watch.

Sun, 01/06/2013 - 15:44 | 3127461 Pareto
Pareto's picture

Bonds rally during earnings, volatility returns to SnP but not overtly (SnP) holds 1420, then some trifecta CB announcement and stocks rally to > 1500.  Tensions rise in Middle East creating wall of worry (and another 120 pts on the SnP.  New Treasury secretary is a chimp, takes fiscal dump on Bernanke (other chimp), yields tick up.  Other chimp takes dump and flings feces back at treasury chimp.  Bonds rise, stocks rise.  SnP 1670, VIX 12, $USD .8, HSI 25,000, NIKK 11,400, employment ?  Cycle repeats as both chimps become good friends.

Sun, 01/06/2013 - 15:33 | 3127421 XtraBullish
XtraBullish's picture

Stocks Setup For a Fall

I completely disagree. I have polled over 200 investors since Dec 1 and not one is intending to put one additional nickel into the stock market in the next six months; they are buying real estate and income trust-type products. The last time it was this unanimous was January 2009 (real estate excepted).

The Great Reflation will take equities to record highs by July but a loaf of bread will cost $3.00.

Sun, 01/06/2013 - 14:57 | 3127333 max2205
max2205's picture

Wait.   This is when they lie.  Q2 the lies become well known

 

Sun, 01/06/2013 - 14:54 | 3127326 JR
JR's picture

From Matt Taibbi: “The most appalling part is the lying.” It’s “one of the biggest and most elaborate falsehoods ever sold to the American people.”

Referring to the federal rescue of Wall Street, Taibbi says “We were told that the taxpayer was stepping in only temporarily, mind you—to prop up the economy and save the world from financial catastrophe. What we actually ended up doing was the exact opposite: committing American taxpayers to permanent, blind support of an ungovernable, unregulatable, hyperconcentrated new financial system that exacerbates the greed and inequality that caused the crash…”

“We thought we were just letting a friend crash at the house for a few days; we ended up with a family of hillbillies who moved in forever, sleeping nine to a bed and building a meth lab on the front lawn.”

This is Taibbi’s newest: “Secret and Lies of the Bailout.”

Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/secret-and-lies-of-the-bailout-20130104#ixzz2HDnMWjOD

Sun, 01/06/2013 - 15:07 | 3127359 linrom
linrom's picture

This is really good writing, although he sounds just like James Howard Kunsler.

Sun, 01/06/2013 - 14:48 | 3127320 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

this is good analysis and reflects the poverty of america's capital emaciated economy. poor policies motivated by larger grand evil strategic goals to impoverish america until it submits to the rockefeller cfr's goal of 1 world government requires the prostration of america. capital destruction is the tool of choice in sherman's march to the sea which will burn all industry in its wake until all money is in the hands of the .01%.

Sun, 01/06/2013 - 14:35 | 3127290 Getting Old Sucks
Getting Old Sucks's picture

You remember the dot.com bubble?  Most (dot.com) companies showed astronomical losses for years and yet the money poured in, and the stock prices rose quarter after quarter.  Then it popped.  Well, this is the FED bubble so why do we expect anything different.  It'll pop someday.

Sun, 01/06/2013 - 14:40 | 3127304 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

Look at Trulia and Zillow!

Sun, 01/06/2013 - 14:14 | 3127245 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

The Fed, having killed virtually all alternative investments, has made US equities the only place to park money. In the old days- markets behaved rationally. According to news. 

These days, that is no longer true. Our market is sick. Money has nowhere to go. The market stays elevated even though equities miss their earnings guidance. In fact- it doesn't appear any amount of bad news has an effect. I would be absolutely shocked if the Dow- gave back anything close to 10% despite the fact that I agree with the author on the earnings season.

So we shall see soon.

Sun, 01/06/2013 - 14:39 | 3127302 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

How can you write this tripe!?  The MSM says that the economy is doing great thanks to Obama, Geithner adn Bernanke!  ;-)

Sun, 01/06/2013 - 16:29 | 3127575 qqqqtrader
qqqqtrader's picture

$OO,OOO,OOO,OOO,OOOBAMA is da man!

He'll fix it, just wait,

then wait some more,

give him some time,

then a little more,

just keep waiting...

Sun, 01/06/2013 - 13:50 | 3127190 Chartist
Chartist's picture

This is a known....There's plenty of Fed money and talk of a Q4, 2013, earnings turnaround to prevent a near term slide in the averages, for now.

Sun, 01/06/2013 - 15:39 | 3127440 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

....plus everyone is already hard at work figuring out how many shares to buy back to "beat" earnings by a penny

Sun, 01/06/2013 - 13:11 | 3127126 DavosSherman
DavosSherman's picture

Hoooocoodanode?

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