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The 4-Week Manipulated Move in Oil Prices is Criminal
By EconMatters
No Fundamental Reason for Oil to Move Higher
When is this country going to say enough is enough and start putting people in jail for this kind of blatant market manipulation? It is obvious that the Oil market is manipulated, oil has gone nowhere for five months because there is no reason for it to go anywhere, i.e., there are a ton of supplies on the market, no Middle East disruptions, Israel hasn`t attacked Iran, huge builds in gasoline products, no jump in demand.
And yet Oil mysteriously rises $10 in this common period for manipulating markets at the tail end of the year, and the beginning of the new year, let`s juice it up before the contract rollover, no one cares, no one is really looking too closely at what we are doing, everybody is focusing on fiscal cliff issues and the debt ceiling debate.
Another Bearish EIA Report
So we have another bearish inventory report on Wednesday, and oil refuses to go down, why so they can force it one leg higher, and get other trapped traders to buy their contracts from them so they don`t have to rollover at a huge cost.
Force Stops & Reduce Rollover Exit Costs
This is why when nobody takes physical delivery prices do not go down an equal amount on rollover, as less than .005% take physical delivery, this way prices aren`t negatively affected after a large amount of money comes into a futures contract in an equally large rollover effect on exiting.
It is because the side which has pumped the futures contract with a bunch of cash, makes the other side who rationally would be short based upon the normal price history and abundance of supplies, has to cover thus buying the contracts from the pumpers in this case, thus avoiding a large rollover effect when they have to exit because the contract ends after a month.
There is a whole art to the manipulating game in the oil market, and the big banks play it quite well. And given how inept congress who has investigated them twice in the last five years every time prices run up and has done nothing, the big banks think they are invulnerable on this issue.
If you haven`t clamped down on us yet, and you cannot even get you own house in order, then there is no way you can figure out how we are manipulating the oil markets.
Trading Records Last 4 Weeks
But enough is enough, this is blatant criminal behavior, and it is pretty easy to know who the culprits are just pull the last 4 weeks trading records and see who bought large positions the last 4 weeks, while the fundamentals never materially changed in fact they got more bearish as the products` supplies grew at a substantial rate, and there were no Middle East supply disruptions, or strategic hot spots that were in danger of having supply disruptions, nada.
“Asset Class” Euphemism for Roulette Table
Prices are not determined by the fundamentals in a manipulated market they are determined by oil being an “Asset Class” which is code word or a euphemism for giant Casino in New York instead of Vegas.
So we cannot legally play poker online in this country, but you can pull up your internet connection, and place your wager on the price of oil, such hipocracy in this country. The price of oil, and as such gas is determined not by supply and demand factors, but by whether Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley or J.P. Morgan puts $400 million on Black or Red, the literal Oil Roulette game of the big banks.
If Goldman Sachs puts $400 million on Black prices go up, if they put $400 million on Red prices go down, as simple as that, this is actually how the price of oil is determined, nothing more and nothing less.
Market Correlation & Wagering Strategy
Furthermore, Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley doesn`t factor in how this aligns with the fundamentals of the market, they don`t care, they more care about how putting $400 million on Red will affect their other manipulated market the equities market, as the equities market has a lot of oil and gas components in it.
Thus they do think somewhat strategically, i.e., they try to align their betting strategies, so when we put $400 million on Red, let`s pick a time when we are going to sell off the S&P 500 as well. This is why markets are so correlated even when one is a commodity that consumers put in their car, and has supply and demand issues, where the other is purely an investment vehicle.
Betting Reports & Market Collusion
So Mr. Consumer the next time gas prices go up, and they will for the next month as retail prices catch up to the manipulated move in the futures market, just realize that Morgan Stanley decided to put it on Black this past month, and when your prices go down, praise the alter of J.P. Morgan as they decided to go Red that particular month.
And it is always coordinated; you never have the big banks putting on Black and Red, thus trading/wagering against each other. They will all come out with their Betting Reports, I mean Research Reports designating the myriad of market conditions as to why they decided to put the cash on Black versus Red this month.
CFTC: These small fines are a joke!
The real reason for market selloffs in Oil is usually due to the occurrence that the big banks are going to sell off equities in the summer, late April anyway, so they start selling off oil as well, i.e., $400 million on Red! Such a scam, such a rigged market, this is getting so old…..where are the regulators?
I don`t want congress to have more hearings on the subject, I want the governmental organizations who are tasked with monitoring this bullshit to start investigating, and shutting trading shops down for this crap!
EIA Reports: Why bother?
Why even continue this farce of having EIA reports anymore, they are completely irrelevant to the price of oil, and oil continuously goes the opposite way of the reports, why even bother with this government agency, it is not like the history of the market the last five years tracks the fundamentals of supply and demand.
Government Agencies & Regulators at their finest
Let`s just save some more tax money and shut down the agency, at least consumers will only be getting screwed by wall street traders. And while we are at it lets just abolish the SEC and the CFTC, as they are completely useless. Furthermore, since all markets are ripe with manipulation, essentially the wild-west; why not reduce government costs by cutting funds to these two agencies entirely.
They serve no real purpose when markets are corrupted everyday with Fake Orders, Dark Trading Pools, High Frequency Trading Algos, and the like except to further government costs & bureaucracy while strictly providing the illusion of fair markets. These organizations are a complete joke, and have been for decades!
The Cheating isn`t even hidden anymore
Literally the CFTC only has to pull up a trading Dom watch it for five minutes and watch all the flashing fake large orders that appear and disappear as price reacts to their presence to know that these markets are infested with manipulation termites. They obviously purposely look the other way, or avoid looking at all!
OPEC points to a Manipulated Market
Americans have it all wrong, you are not being held hostage by the middle east, or the cartels like OPEC, it is the Big Banks Cartel, let`s call them the Roulette Cartel that is holding the American and World consumer hostage, and this crap needs to stop.
Even OPEC realizes this manipulation, and they have publicly stated many times it is the speculators that are determining the price of oil. But they use too kind of a word, because these are just a bunch of Vegas style Roulette players with deep pockets who unlike Roulette have no risk because while there is randomness with a slight edge to the casino in Las Vegas, the Oil Roulette table of the Wall street banks never have a losing quarter, shoot they very rarely have a losing day, and it is hard to ever lose when you’re the ones moving the market.
Wall Street Mansions don`t build themselves
Consumers realize when they gamble in Las Vegas that those casinos are not built by them winning, but they probably don`t realize to the extent that those Hampton and Connecticut mansions are being built through the sacrifices of consumers at the pump.
Yes, there have been 30 million barrels added to gasoline supplies over the past 6 weeks, but you are charged 30 cents higher in the futures market, and these prices will be coming to a neighborhood near you.
Are You Kidding Me?
So let me get this straight, the gasoline market went from a tight, to a well-supplied market in six weeks, and consumers are going to be punished 30 cents more for this ridiculous build in more supplies? All these gasoline supplies are building in storage because there is not enough consumer demand for the product, and prices are going substantially higher not lower?
This is the exact opposite of how efficient markets are supposed to work in a non-rigged market, this very fact, should be a wake-up call for regulators. Hello CFTC, what is going on in the gasoline RBOB market? Do you think you should start investigating, you do exist for a reason, there is a blatant, clear cut case of price manipulation in the RBOB gasoline market, now get to work and do your job!
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WHen are you going to stop analyzing the oil market based on 5 % of the world population?
When you take in account the other 95% with hte many parameter. How about China having to force its GDP upwards until post March 2012 in order for Xi JinPing to organize fully his staff.
Have you heard about Aba in the Sichuan Region. Well they build an airport there. Just Sichuan s population is the same as Germany.
You have no idea about teh market you are analyzing if you just analyze 5% of the world. China is stockpiling massive amounts of everything, for no apparent reason.
The stockpile of Copper, Palm Oil, all of those commodities...
You are going to have 4 months of honeymoon.
If you are short commodities and long finanical assets you are positively MAD.
Sichuan peoples buing power please?Do they earning enough money to stop to drive bycycles and move into 20-30k$ cedans cars or into even used toyora stuff?do they have social support to drive oil price up?I hope they are on the way to shut up next Shuttle,Energy or produce any world wonder,sure,this article will help:
http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2012/02/understanding-the-current-oil-market.html
by the way do you know how many people in India using the cars?Can they afford 4$ gas price?why then we are not at 500$ oil yet?They are people who do not spend if they don't have,thats why most drives bycycles,horses,elephants and light motorolers-cheap and quick!
You made my case actually without knowing it.
Is not the level is the flow, or if you will not the level but the derivative, rate of change if you will.
I remember my father telling me in 1998 when oil was at around 10 USD, what happens to oil when people start having muppets instead of bicycle. If on top of that Fed prints to oblivion you know the result.
I remember my professor of economics telling me. But they can not afford a muppet, it is too expensive!
THE FOLLOWING WOULD BE WORRYING FOR OIL DEMAND
~People in Maynmar and North Korea and Sichuan are already driving huge SUVs to drop their kid at school in a huge waste of oil resources~
Than you know that everyone on earth is wasting oil. No good drivers of demand.
You have 5% of the world wasting oil (US not being very parcimonious with oil consumption but it is changing), another 7% of the world in Europe at full capacity (wasting less but not as energy concious to the exception the Danes?) and Japan using a lot yet trying to use the minimum they can (they are freaking out with their energy depence but still have to import).
For the rest, just think about the many farmers in Africa could generate so much more food if they had a tractor and pick-up truck. That is a different usage that dropping the kids at school with a huge SUV, you actually carry metal and weight for a productive purpose. The ratio of weight of SUV to the weight transported of people is a huuuuge waste, not teh case to transport large quantity of food or move the earth to produce more food.
BEIJING: China has surpassed automobile sales of Europe with a record sale of 14.68 million units last year.
Sales of passenger vehicles increased 6.8 per cent, from the previous year to 14.68 million units, the China Passenger Car Association said.
In December alone, passenger vehicle sales jumped 8.6 per cent year-on-year to 1.56 million units.
Passenger vehicle sales in Europe were placed 12.5 million units, 1.1 million fewer than a year earlier, state run China Daily reported today.
The US registered the best sales growth since 2008, 13 per cent year-on-year, but it still lagged just behind the Chinese mainland market after selling 14.5 million units.
China's vehicle market will continue to grow, the daily quoted analysts as saying.
The market could be as big as Europe and the US combined, Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer, head of vehicle research at the University of Duisburg-Essen, told the German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung. I think the WhiteNight is riding the right horse
if their morgages for cars working same way other countries do-then we should prepare for hard landing,buying bowwrow car is not solution,its debit,so Chineese building even more buble that all others built?!But they doing it smart-they giving away currency stuff and getting real commodity which will generate cash-car is a cash cow for covernments
Chinese don't finance cars. We pay in cash over here.
wo zhi dao le
We do we have an oil stockpile? No apparent reason? Otherwise, good points.
I forgot the " "
There is debasement of the USD. There is CHINA´s in large capital formation, and given their population, they sure know about natural resources constraints, there are tensions in the Eastern China sea with Japan. Evidently we all know on this blog that CHina has a big appetite for tangible assets and has stopped recycling its treasuries. I should have put quotes.
What big joke is and what governments hiding from citizens is a research saing that Oil is renewable stuff,its as human body prodicing the blood the Earth producing the oil,how do you think its mantra was curcling before dinosavrus disappeared?Think,this is biggest World lie governments selling to us at 95$ per barrel,US hopes by taking Iraq,Iran,Libia oil to take control of it.The real problem is not oil or its source,the problem is those who controlling it,how you can keep prices up:create no storage,keep producing companies at stand by to press it to sell oil more cheap to read off stuff instead stand by,no alternative energies development,to put restrictions on any energy licences or to make price of licence high enough to keep alternative energies off from being cheap,restrict private people and leave only controlled by you companies,mopolistic market and no enemies in the world with "partners" interesting to seel at high,no care of economy,but promoting "spendmoreman(y),create multiple derivatives like ETFs around simple price making speculators run around it but not in,kill retail investors-now its only 27% of the markets,kill pensions via mutual funds pumping commodities prices and then crush it via limiting margins on equities or regulating by SEC the trade,include HFT so those funds of pension funds going flames more quick,elct money borrowers into FED chair,flood system with unvaluable money and be a King of poors,this is a way to keep oil prices up up up untill King is naked!I think the hard line solution for people is to take money from bank,mutual fund,hedge fund and from stock market,let markets collapse-your money losing value any how,so at least you fight strong into governments knees leaving them just with printing presses but not your money serving them,do not "protect" yourself anymore what they want from you-stay off markets and spending,do it just 3months,then you see result,but be sure your friends do the same-trust me,you buy shares you have for 50-70% less from what you keep now!
What big joke is and what governments hiding from citizens is a research saing that Oil is renewable stuff,its as human body prodicing the blood the Earth producing the oil,how do you think its mantra was curcling before dinosavrus disappeared?Think,this is biggest World lie governments selling to us at 95$ per barrel,US hopes by taking Iraq,Iran,Libia oil to take control of it.The real problem is not oil or its source,the problem is those who controlling it,how you can keep prices up:create no storage,keep producing companies at stand by to press it to sell oil more cheap to read off stuff instead stand by,no alternative energies development,to put restrictions on any energy licences or to make price of licence high enough to keep alternative energies off from being cheap,restrict private people and leave only controlled by you companies,mopolistic market and no enemies in the world with "partners" interesting to seel at high,no care of economy,but promoting "spendmoreman(y),create multiple derivatives like ETFs around simple price making speculators run around it but not in,kill retail investors-now its only 27% of the markets,kill pensions via mutual funds pumping commodities prices and then crush it via limiting margins on equities or regulating by SEC the trade,include HFT so those funds of pension funds going flames more quick,elct money borrowers into FED chair,flood system with unvaluable money and be a King of poors,this is a way to keep oil prices up up up untill King is naked!I think the hard line solution for people is to take money from bank,mutual fund,hedge fund and from stock market,let markets collapse-your money losing value any how,so at least you fight strong into governments knees leaving them just with printing presses but not your money serving them,do not "protect" yourself anymore what they want from you-stay off markets and spending,do it just 3months,then you see result,but be sure your friends do the same-trust me,you buy shares you have for 50-70% less from what you keep now!
Dear god, you're an idiot.
Sounds like someone lost money shorting oil
When you see the dog shit -would you by it for 1$ if big Media advertise it?Sure people lost money shorting oil because they was using knowledge of mathematic and economics,but when you use just amount of money against any logics its manipulation in law and this what this article says:in logic oil price should go down into the dog sht and let people and economies(World wide) to recover,but some government close suckers banks are using a money poer FED let it borrow in order to fight own people in markets and other countries and USA economies via promotion of pumping and inflating commodities presuring World to spend more from it must!if you one who is happy with such picture-we are a community here are not,no man with normal logics will be happy when some one keeping bread and butter at artifically high prices making to you to starve-how would you respond?Shorting people with short position makes those people to starve,makes world to starve from normally settled price via manipulated and artificially kept high oil price which sucking from any other industries profit margins and makes lifes of billion peoples misery!
Here in Russia and Israel we have same "AEG" saved by governments:Electricity companies!Governments at us builded private enterprices to take all responsibilities from it out,thos entities rising prices for no limit,no government control(is controled by gov-mt),we see everywhere the governments put control into private firms connected to government in order to do less and to take more,we have municipal rise,real estate government controlled,morgage promt up poicies leading to reward those leaving in debt to leave even deeper in debit,but savers to suffer,they want us one month leaving,no future of saving the earned moeny as they inflate it via new morgage issues real estate price pumping up,energy markets controlled by government blintly watching own people becoming slaves of "Egypt in time of Josef",while one country government fighting for its boaders-the stuff as forest and natural resources wildly "sold" to chineese on its forest lines,the other country government enjoing "Selling its country" territory got in war respond fight by 1967.Strict land control and real estate saga of youngers to leave country in no hope to build or to buy own appartments which went in pice up over 50-80% for last 4years since Bernanke pumping its money into world governments coffins!Be creative,stop consuming their stuff,start real own economy if you stil can,help other to stay afloat!
I think it is only natural that hidden or gray economies are created when the kleptocracy of bankers and politicians merge to enslave people with debt, taxes and inflated prices that benefit only the few.
However, Marx got it wrong. His vision of communism was a scam designed to USE the oppressed, not to free them. To free the oppressed, they must be able create competing technologies, economies and governments ... and therein lies the problem because the sociopaths in charge will and have used violence and murder to stop it.
If the Saudis want higher oil prices, and they do, then our government will give it to them.....The Saudis will in turn buy Boeing jets and other items from the US....This is how the consumer unwittingly supports US multinationals by getting gouged at the pump.
I thought the Saudis wanted a few of those Trillion dollar coins.
We support the multinationals in all sorts of ways: wars, tax subsidies, not cleaning the congressional house...
The reason the NG can not be manipulated yet is a gas storing,however,if one remember back in 2008 it was riding up 300% from 3$,but today easy calculation bring us to 24$ oil price using same quantity of NG per barrel-to reach oil NG must to get 400% this time,taking huge amount ogas in the world-once most companies switches into NG the crude will collpase or think of it:small comperatively amount of money by banking or government agencies into Oil market keeping multiple ETFs vampire society up,today oil price has consequencies not just in ETFs,but into other countries economies,to keep other countries economies disconnected from oil via IAN,IRAQ,Libia embargo is profitable and selling to this countries own oil keeping demand quit well at domestic market-its a total Matrix of oil prices is a strategic government course of reveniew guys!Cut it and Obama has no funds to keep its overblown stuff of empty advisers changing without results(gov-nt spending up) for world population.USA try dictate to the world oil price untill world to ignore it,its already hatefull by at least all nationas using oil and $.
Visit us if you russian/english reader:
http://trendybull777.blog.com/
Yes,world is captured by world banking powers standing behind governmnets,the World police government already at work."Shut up and o to sleep with me..."-hope you understand what role is prepaired to most of us via whatever:high markets via indexes,low stock prices via 12big companies keeping markets,high prices via inflation,high life costs,misery,slavery-buying your vote for tea with sugar in 200ml cup!We have same governments coming in same countries after it cased crushes in markets nad domestic economies via middle class cut of in pieces:USA,Russia,Israel-all had same stuff in power crating this mass and same idols try to "fix" our lifes after their plan to ruin our wealth!Stay united,ignore them,use minimum oil,drive bycicle,use public transport,eat less junk,consume less-they want your money spent before you get,be slave of the system they portray for you!No control
"Are You Kidding Me?" ...another left-wing whiner
Preparing for the buck to fall in price. Or, China is now again a worldwide love puppy, so they are expecting big demand. Like all markets, the deep-pocket guys call the tune and the supply/demand equation plays second fiddle. Looking at the many functions of the economy and financial system, what is real anymore? What market is not distorted by central banks and Kommunist governments?
Jeez, do you think it might have anything to do with this??
Saudi Oil Output Drops 5% in December
Since it comes from Fox, it must be true....
The reason Saudi cut production is because it isn`t needed anymore, check out the domestic production chart, saudi lack of production sure didn`t affect stocks - bloated, well above the five year AVERAGES!
If Saudi`s pumped at regular rate, Oil would be below 70 right now due to an escalation in US Production, now over 7m/barrel per day and climbing, Saudi`s better get used to producing less:)
So, let me see if I get it, if you are correct, the Saudis should bankrupt themselves for our benefit.... A selfish narcissist analysis is rarely, if ever, the correct one buddy...
Oil is the most concentrated, easily portable for of energy on the planet. It takes energy to do anything and oil is used in numerous products that improve your quality of life. The last time I checked there were still 7+ billion people in demand of a decent quality of life. Oil price is indeed manipulated, but not how you might think.
There no "markets" people, there are only those in the club.
Cesium-137 batteries work a shitload longer. But those are nuclear so us peasants cant get off the grid forever.
It is amzing the politics of it all: If electricity prices moved, and were manipulated (which they were in California by Enron and others) heads would roll, but the government literally has let this shit go on for the modern era of the paper oil markets uncontested, and it is so easy to prove. I guess they need to be politcally motivated similarly to how everyone piled onto Enron when they became America`s whipping boy:)
Right before Christmas Sam's Club gas was $2.86 a gallon near me, the next cheapest was BP at $3.01. The day after Christmas BP shot up to $3.29 and Sam's was $3.04. Last week BP was $3.56 and Sam's was $3.34. Today Sam's is $3.09 and BP is $3.38.
$.30 daily moves are now common in the price of retail gas. It is absolutely insane. Also the price discrepancies between stations is crazy. I know Sam's is $3.09 today but I drove by a Shell station that is $3.49. $.40 per gallon difference for regular in the same town 1 mile away?
Imagine if a McDonalds hamburger was priced the way gas is. The cattle futures market is just as manipulated as oil. On Monday a Big Mac is $3.80, Tuesday $3.25, Wednesday $4.01.
In that case there would be a huge outcry from the public. Heads od McDonalds executives would probably roll.
Suppose a McDs burger required (aka cost) twice as many CALORIES of feed than it used to require to produce? Do you think this imaginary quantity called dollars would hold constant in measuring a burger?
Take a look at how much effort is going into getting oil out of the ground, compared to how much it used to require. Forget dollars. Forget trading. Forget markets. They are just embellishment around the real measure of reality, which is joules.
How could you truly imagine that a barrel of oil that used to require some timber for a tower maybe 40 feet high and some pipe spinning into the ground would price the same as a barrel that requires building a 30 story tall structure that you put a marine engine on and drive it across an ocean to a site, then helicopter in a crew and start drilling 10 miles under a sea floor that is 3 miles below you, and then lay pipe out a few hundred miles to that site to capture whatever comes up . . . how can you imagine all that effort compared to previous effort would not reflect in price?
Supply and demand is an economics concept, and I thought ZH rejected economists. Supply and demand no longer defines oil price. Effort to get the oil out of the ground defines oil price.
If Effort alone was the sole reason oil prices have been sky rocketing then why has BP and other oil companies reaped millions of profits yoy?
For me this brings up an interesting set of issues on oil. I'd prefer to see some quantitative evidence of manipulation and I'm not denying that it occurs in markets. However, my XOI.X model has been signaling a rise for a while, which I do not understand for the same reasons as noted in the article regarding supply and demand. Take all charts with spices and salt but here it is: http://econocasts.blogspot.nl/2013/01/20121231-cycle-charts.html
Its strange to see expecting gold/silver/dow/sp500 falling down and oil go up-extraordinary fantasy which could be reached only by lunatic governments keeping oil in storage for "strategic" mass distructions!Turn to NG,by the way,how much cost NG for use for simple retailer,in israel its 40-45$ per 12kg NG gas baloon?In Russia its NG non limit in apparts for 1/6 fraction of israely price,regardless IL has its own stuff now,policies are a way...
Maybe it's not manipulation per se. Maybe everyone is trading off the same bonehead models.
Right! Your model works and you predict what other boneheads are doing, making you an uberbonehead, maybe.
...Shrug....
Agree, crude ramp makes no sense outside of paper markets.
Gasoline in my area is $.10 cheaper at the pump than when crude was at $88/bbl. It was consistently tracking crude before that.
Something's got to give. Let me guess, gas is going up.
The government has no clue when it comes to the lengths Goldman Sachs will go to to screw the world to make a buck!
Oh wait, they bailed out AIG:)
Anything not tied down and that is priced in fiat SHOULD be going up. Period.
The election (theft) is over. No more "cheap" gas for the serfs. Ramp prices back up.
4 week manipulation? This has been manipulated for far longer then that, the price of distillates have been held low through the Christmas buying season. You know, to get the sheeple to buy up all their plastic crap, and thus make it look like all is well.
Come on people, move along... You have no control here!
This goes in the same direction as Chris Cook's numerous posts on the Oil Drum or in his Max Keiser interviews. Trouble is, his contributions are peppered with "pre-buy" and other such terms and at the end you are no wiser than previously.
You might like to address where the physical crude oil is actually being held, and by whom. In 2008 there were reports of fleets of tankers filled to the gills with the stuff. Whoever has the physical and can keep it (unlike gold) can control the price (see diamonds). Why else is JPM setting up a copper ETF?
may be the price of gas is reflecting inflation .. more of those little pieces of paper to buy the extended supply ...
endless supply of fruit loops yet the package is smaller and the per bite is more dear. now comes the milk lol
stuff just costs more ...
what a naive post. why not ask why gold miraculously levitated up today? or is it supressed down under $2k like oil is under $120? why not question the R2K at MORE THAN double it's value? Criminal you say?
just reads like a frustration rant for why "the market is wrong" and your trades lost.
Silver, oil, mortgages, Congressional raises.....what isn't priced criminal these days?
It's simple, the "Markets" are all broken. There is no fundamental reason for PM's to have tanked after QE Infinity.
No, I think it's more reflecting the price of lunch for the bastards at JPM. You know... lunch money!
Bingo...
People never think about it for some reason.
It's not just the supply of oil, gas, fruit loops, and milk - it's the supply of fiat money chasing that oil, gas, fruit loops, and milk...
The purchasing power of the dollar is sliding; thus we most likely will see oil rise substantally more.