This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Counterpoint to Goldman Sachs Chief Commodity Strategist

EconMatters's picture





 

By EconMatters

I would be surprised


Today Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs chief commodity strategist put forth some comments regarding the Oil market.  Jeff Currie from Frankfurt said he wouldn’t be surprised “if we woke up in summer and [Brent] oil cost $150 [per barrel]". 


Oil high established 1st Quarter


The counter argument to that statement would be the following: Brent has put in its high for the year in the first quarter the past two years, and actually put in the low for the year in the summer. The reason that oil has put in the high of the year during the first quarter is that oil doesn`t actually trade on the fundamentals. It trades as an “asset class” just like equities, so when funds are piling money into asset classes oil moves up alongside the S&P 500.


Further Reading - Gold Market Dip Buying Strategy 


Middle East Disturbances


A secondary factor is that the last two years the Middle East has been used as a catalyst to ramp up investor`s interest on the potential for supply disruptions. But conveniently sold off as soon as President Obama utilized the release and threat of release of the SPRs to counter trader`s ebullience in the futures markets.


Annual Summer Selloff


So the high for the year may very well be put in before option`s expiration in April which usually serves as the high mark period for equities before the summer selloff. There will be some excuse for assets to sell off in the summer. Assets move up carefree and then when they cannot go any higher, all the sudden Europe becomes an issue again, and all assets sell off from copper and oil to equities.



Volatility Comparison: A better Takeaway


Jeff Currie put forward a one month chart of Brent volatility versus S&P 500 volatility, with the takeaway that Brent volatility is near a record low relative to the S&P 500 volatility. Yes I would agree Jeff, but the small sample size of one month when equities sold off hard over fiscal cliff concerns while oil barely budged is the real outlier and the reason for the disconnect.




As Doyle Brunson said: When I put money in the pot, I need to protect my children


I agree with you than normally when the S&P 500 sells off that much going from 1440 to 1385 oil sells off a lot more than a dollar or so. But this was a very thinly traded time in markets, and it was pretty obvious that oil was in the midst of what has turned into an 11 dollar move in oil, and a rather substantial initial position was being heavily defended in the oil markets.


In short, someone had a rather vested interest in not letting oil break like equities on fiscal cliff concerns. I agree Jeff that was unusual, but your takeaway is incorrect, as nine times out of ten, unless there is a break-out disturbance in the Middle East, if equities sell off that hard, oil follows suit.



Holiday Trading=Low Volume in Oil Markets


The real takeaway is why didn`t oil sell off? So volatility should have been the same as equities, it usually is, and traders can do a lot of funny things during the holidays. 


Geo-Political Risk


Jeff supplies another chart regarding geo-political risks near an all-time high. Yes, Jeff but oil doesn`t trade on geo-political risks in general, it trades on risks to supply disruptions specifically. And relative to the past couple of years, actual supply threat disruptions are about medium.


There is always the potential for the next breakout of Middle East tensions, but traders have used these tensions to push oil up, and they all turned out to be overblown relative to actual supply disruptions.


So unless Israel attacks Iran which seems less likely than a year ago, all the other Middle East regions are actually on the whole with regard to major supply hubs for oil, actually in better shape, and much more stable than the previous two years.



Lower Volatility because Oil Markets are well-supplied


But the reason volatility is down in the oil markets is that there is a ton of supply in the markets, markets are in fact, not tight like Jeff states that oil markets will remain cyclically tight for 2013-14, but are actually more well supplied than they have been for the past decade.



Too bad no Chart for “Tight” Oil Supplies


I would really implore Jeff Currie to produce any data which suggests that oil markets are tight for this year, and the next. This statement just doesn’t jive with the facts in the oil market. It would be interesting to have some actual data to support this claim that Jeff Currie makes regarding tight oil markets.





I guess tight can be a relative term, but I would point out to Jeff that tight relative to the past 5 years of oil markets is patently false, oil markets are actually more well supplied with Libyan oil back online, Iraq producing more oil than ever before and growing, and the US producing the most oil since 1993, with no major supply disruptions.


The only one being Iran having to sell much of their oil on the grey market, but that oil production decrease has been insignificant.



“Loosest” Oil Market in a Decade!


We have had a tight oil market in the past decade where we were using more than we were producing by about 1 million barrels per day, but that dynamic has actually reversed, and we are now producing more oil than we are consuming. So by any standard of ‘tightness” the oil markets are “looser” relative to any time during the last decade.


Talking Goldman`s Book


Now if Jeff Currie is just a mouthpiece for Goldman Sachs bullish bets on commodities, then the actual facts regarding the oil market don`t really matter do they?  If Jeff is basically just suppose to “talk up” the commodity, and represent and push the views of Goldman Sacks bullish commodity book.


Ok, I get that Goldman Sachs has been long oil since Brent was $103 in November and WTI was $86, but I didn`t need Jeff Currie for that, one look at the oil charts would confirm this notion.


When S&P 500 Breaks, Oil will not be far behind


So when Jeff Currie starts talking about $150 and $200 oil given his past it might be time to start looking for some near-term shorts for the next month in the oil markets. Of course, this time if the S&P 500 sells off 70 handles, I would expect Oil markets to follow suit with the move.


Ergo, Jeff Currie will not have to worry that Oil market volatility isn`t matching the volatility in equities. Remember, oil is an “Asset Class” Jeff, and now that all traders are back from Christmas break, it will sell off just like equities.


© EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | Post Alert | Kindle

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Fri, 01/18/2013 - 09:10 | Link to Comment tedstr
tedstr's picture

To paraphrase our spender-in-chief, he is just trying to gin-up buyers for GS long positions getting ready to unload.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 08:32 | Link to Comment oilman8864
oilman8864's picture

When oil hit $34 a barell in the 70's there was a HUGE glut. Ghawar, Canterell, Burgand and Bolivar Coastal were new fields. Now HOW could that be?

 

HIGH price and a glut? Hmmm... Do you know anything at all about markets? 

 

hahaha

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 13:24 | Link to Comment Market Analyst
Market Analyst's picture

In the 1970s you didn`t have electronic markets which have become paper markets, people actually took physical delivery in 1970s.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 03:50 | Link to Comment Market Analyst
Market Analyst's picture

http://fuelfix.com/blog/2013/01/16/enbridge-losing-business-to-railroads...

Enbridge losing business to railroads, refiner says Posted on by Bloomberg in Bakken Shale, Pipelines Comments(0) | E-mail | Print
Rail is growing as a competitor to pipelines in transporting the nation's growing crude supply. (Nick De La Torre / Houston Chronicle)

By Edward Welsch

Enbridge Inc.’s North Dakota pipeline system has been underused for the past three months as railroads move more oil out of the Bakken shale play, a refining company told U.S. regulators.

Enbridge’s plans to expand its pipeline network out of the Bakken won’t stop railroads from taking business, Flint Hills Resources LLC, a unit of Koch Industries Inc., said in a filing with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

“This trend is not temporary,” Flint Hills said. “Rail transportation is becoming more competitive and will continue to take barrels away from the Enbridge North Dakota system.”

Railways have emerged as a competitor to pipelines as production from shale fields has grown faster than pipeline space. While rail is typically more expensive than pipelines, railcars can reach markets that pipelines don’t, yielding higher prices for producers.

Flint Hills, which operates the 330,000-barrel-a-day Pine Bend refinery in Minnesota, filed the document with FERC as part of its opposition to a surcharge on the North Dakota system proposed by Enbridge.

“We are seeing reduced volumes on our North Dakota system as some producers seek alternate transportation options to take advantage of favorable oil pricing in other markets,” Graham White, an Enbridge spokesman in Calgary, said in an e-mail. Volumes will increase as new regional market access projects are finished later this year, he said.

North Dakota produced 747,000 barrels a day in October, up 50 percent from a year earlier, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. An estimated 52 percent of the crude moved by rail, versus 38 percent by pipeline, according to the North Dakota Pipeline Authority.

Top Shipper

The largest oil rail-car shipper in the Bakken is Burlington Northern Santa Fe LLC, owned by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. The company plans to boost its crude-oil shipments by 40 percent to 700,000 barrels a day by the end of this year, Chief Executive Matt Rose told Bloomberg in a phone interview this month.

Enbridge’s North Dakota system can transport 210,000 barrels a day from Minot to Clearbrook, Minnesota, according to the company’s website.

The company plans to expand its Bakken pipelines and to connect them with other parts of the Enbridge network, including construction of a new 225,000 barrel-a-day pipeline called “Sandpiper” that will link with Enbridge’s Mainline system in Superior, Wisconsin.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 03:49 | Link to Comment steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

 

The end user might be able to buy gasoline but he cannot buy a new car or a house. He's broke.

 

Broke works its way up the supply chain, businesses are broke because their customers are broke. Then the middle-men and management firms are broke, soon enough the governments and banks are broke and can't borrow, either.

 

Sooner or later 'broke' rules. It's kinda like the grim reaper of business.

 

 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 03:36 | Link to Comment Market Analyst
Market Analyst's picture

 

JP Energy to build oil pipeline to Cushing from Kansas

    By ROD WALTON World Staff Writer


 
A metro Dallas company announced plans Tuesday to build a pipeline that will bring crude oil from the Kansas portion of the Mississippi Lime formation south to the Cushing storage hub by next year.

JP Energy Development said it signed a 15-year agreement with Tug Hill Operating, which will move oil from south-central Kansas on the Kansas Express pipeline. Construction is expected to begin in the first quarter, with completion by next January.

The Kansas Express will have capacity to take on other production and relieve the strain on getting oil out of the prolific Mississippi Lime.

"This is a significant development for oil producers in northern Oklahoma and Kansas who will have additional means to move their product to market quickly and efficiently," said J. Patrick Barley, president and CEO of JP Energy Partners, the Irving, Texas-based parent company.

The Kansas Express will be JP Energy's second pipeline in the Mississippi Lime. The geologic formation is a relatively shallow limestone play rich in liquid hydrocarbons.

Tug Hill holds leases on more than 800,000 acres in the Mississippi Lime.

Pipeline capacity will replace the need to move crude on trucks.

"The new pipeline provides Tug Hill Operating access to the Cushing market and limits the number of trucks on Kansas roads," Tug Hill CEO Michael Radler said in a statement.

He also praised JP Energy's track record on transporting crude.

"They are our preferred pipeline company, and we hope other Kansas producers will find opportunities to use them as well," Radler said.

JP Energy Development also owns and operates the Great Salt Plains Pipeline, which went into service three months ago. The pipeline moves crude from Cherokee, Okla., to Cushing.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 01:42 | Link to Comment LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Elmo (and Kermit, and Ms. Piggy, and Big Bird, etc) once asked, "Mr. Currie, where should I put my money?"  He was pleased to tell them.   Or is this just a head fake and he knows that investors have caught on to the muppet slaying and will start shorting oil, so he told it straight this time?  Sad that we know it's one or the other, and that only he and his paid politicians and MIC friends know which.

Thu, 01/17/2013 - 22:15 | Link to Comment Market Analyst
Market Analyst's picture

But Jeff Currie has such a stellar track record at GS!

I hope he invests those GS bonus checks well, that guy could be fired any day now, what a moron!!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!