ilene's picture


David Banister-

It’s been a long drawn out corrective affair with the precious metals since the August-September 2011 top that seems so long ago right now. During that last spike period where Gold rallied to just over $1900 per ounce, we had mentioned many times in articles and to our subscribers that GOLD was likely peaking in a wave 3 of excitement and high powered bullish sentiment. The “tells” were the articles, the CNBC mentions, the daily “CNBC GOLD” ticker at the top of their screen, and the cover of a major magazine.

Since that time, we believe GOLD has been consolidating in what we term a “wave 4” correction, which is a milder version than some others. This is part of a 5 wave rally pattern and wave 4 is necessary to cool the engines of overbought sentiment and public love of the metals. These wave 4 patterns can take many forms and shapes, but this one appears to be an irregular ABC Version which we have outlined below on the weekly chart views. The length of period of time is nearing 18 months in total, but the lows in the 1550’s were already marking price bottom territories, and now it seems more of a matter of time before we see wave 5 up really take off.

This means that Gold and Silver Exploration stocks are very cheap as well, because the senior producers are seeing their stockpiles whittled away while their grades deteriorate at the same time. Once GOLD pops over $1750 per ounce we should see a rally in all the Gold Stocks, but especially in the exploration plays, which are historically undervalued here. Take a look at our GDJX Junior Exploration Stocks chart at the bottom of this article as well. It will need some help to break the downtrend, but again we think the odds are in the savvy investors favor to speculate on a select few in this sector.




Consider joining us for free weekly reports or a discount subscription at

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
fredquimby's picture

and the entire 374 tonne allotment from Paris

So when have the Frenchies got to cough-up the tonnage they are looking after?

silverdragon's picture

The Germans just want the US to go out in the market place and buy Gold, kinda funny really.

hairball48's picture

Gold has been "real money" for thousands of years because people, including the worst of thieves, ultimately cannot trust one another. However, they all trust gold when the fiat currencies finally implode and collapse.

What makes you "fiat fans" think this time is different?

silverdragon's picture

The more physical we buy and take off the table the sooner reality kicks in.

rufusbird's picture

I have begun to wonder how fungible gold really is in large amounts.

"Germany has official gold holdings of some 3,396 tonnes. 1,500 tonnes resides in New York and 374 tonnes in Paris. Between now and 2020, Germany will repatriate 674 tonnes of gold – 300 from the Fed in New York (valued at $17.9 billion) and the entire 374 tonne allotment from Paris"

If Gold is truly fungible, why can't the German Central Bank just sell the Gold held by the US and buy gold that is closer to home or more available for sooner delivery?

Not fungible? No takers? No sellers" Or just in large quantities?

hairball48's picture

Assuming they could even sell the NYFed held gold...Who has 2000 tonnes of gold laying around they want to sell to the Germans?

There is something funky about this whole repatriation deal. I do agree with that. Dunno what though.

pbppbp's picture

That is the million dollar question right there. I think there is a horse and pony elemant to this repatriation act. Otherwise they could settle differently. 

DeadFred's picture

I like the metals but they scare me now. You show a $50 rise to resistance and there's the possibility that some thing shocks this massively oversold market into a dive, possibly an epic dive. I can see all those leveraged hedge funds selling their paper gold the day after the S&P opens limit down. If that support line breaks do you think the central banks and their cronies won't sucker punch the paper gold prices? Trouble is brewing and I doubt the S&P passes 1500.

willwork4food's picture

Excellent point. A lot of us are hoping the paper spot will decrease so...(wait for it)...we can BUY MORE!*

*Im not talking about paper either

silverdragon's picture

Great comment Hedgehog!

Guard is either retarded or a troll!


TyrannoSoros Wrecks's picture

Peanut butter finally dropping in price. A 4 lbs jar at Winco is now $7.26 (down $1.50 from a few days ago).



Midas's picture

+1 For shopping at Winco.  Does your Winco have a remarkable amount of white people working there?  Mine looks like a klan rally, even in the deli.  By the way, I am not complaining, even though I love my undocumented americans.

orangegeek's picture

This is a good alternate elliott wave count.  A primary count on monthly Gold is below.


If gold in USD is going to climb, the USD will fall - most will agree this is plausible.  A rocketing Euro, Yen and GBP will follow along.  Currently the Yen and GBP are tanking.



Orly's picture

"Currently the Yen and GBP are tanking."

I'll even stick up for the buggies on this one and say that both currency devaluations have been engineered by their governments and don't look to be able to stick.


silverdragon's picture

I will just keep buying physical Silver and Gold.

My friends will also just keep buying physical Silver and Gold.

Our group of like minded people grows.

F*ck fiat!

stant's picture

germans want thier gold back to save us from having to much worthless relics, thanks china and russia for buying up that junk.

ebworthen's picture

Let's hope so, the only stocks I bother with are precious metal miners and they've been struggling for almost two years.

It's a long term way for me to bet on PM's and not buy Apple, Chipotle, or BOA (besides also buying physical).

tango's picture

The attitude toward gold usually depends on ownership.  Those who own the gold almost always believe in its eventual rise and the reverse is also true. About the only thing I can say for certainty is that any new currency will be based either on force or PMs. 

jonjon831983's picture

Check out the CNBC video posted on:

It`s in regards to last week`s German gold repatriation.

hustler etiquette's picture

I was unawares RN Elliot died broke.  At least I have life.

joego1's picture

PM Yes, Fiat no, Its a digital graph and its based on what iPods are made of. Very scientific.

Praetorian Guard's picture

Pick one: PM's will be worthless; confiscated; bubble; etc. - bottom line is PM's won't do dick shit if the shit bottoms out. Use logic, I know its hard for some of you die hards, but really rub the two brain cells together and think this through...

H E D G E H O G's picture

'GUARD,  Fuck this argrument! If you would've had sense enough, or if you were even old enough, to buy say TEN OUNCES of Gold in 2003 @ $319.99 an oz. you would've put out $3199.00. TODAY, ten years later, those same TEN OUNCES would be worth $18,897(at the high)! NO FEES, NO TAXES, NO SWEAT. AND all I did with them was to lock them in the safe, and maybe get them out and fondle the little fellas once and awhile while I watched the comedy CNBC. GOLD/silver are the bedrock of stored value, always have been, always will be. Believe what you want dude, just come prepared when you come to the Fight Club......................

H E D G E H O G's picture

And another thing, you've got India and Russia, and THE REST OF THE WORLD, scurrying around buying all the Gold they can get their hands on. You've got the CB's buying it up. You've got price suppression. The ONLY thing missing from putting the preverbial "Nail in the Coffin" of this historical scam is an AUDIT OF THE GOLD HELD BY THE USSA! There ain't none! This all enlightens me to the fact that I need to get as much as possible, within my means, while the price is low.

Praetorian Guard's picture

Yea, so that makes you on par with a govt? Hahahahaha, its a game, and your not invited. PM's are going to do WHAT exactly when, as if you say, financial collapse cometh? EVERYTHING comes to a halt. So who gives a fuck if you have PM's if there is NOTHING TO FUCKING BUY!!!! Now as a hedge against inflation, they are performing quite well. However, for you retards who think they will survive some economic doom with your PM's you have another thing coming...

The Miser's picture

Review the history of mankind and you would never have the opinion you have.

jonjon831983's picture

PMs will be worth even more in a confiscation scenario.


Revolution scenario in some random country?  It will be incredibly valuable for any families trying to flee.  I've heard stories of the old days with families fleeing and paper bills just floating around on the street. Nobody wanted them. The only thing some families could use to buy ferry passage out was with MULTIPLE Au oz's PER family member.


But then this time is different in the world so we might as well turn our gold into Goldschlager and drink it.

Praetorian Guard's picture

...and what do you expect to purchase with all manufacturing and JiT distibution coming to a halt????? For fucks sake, if the world goes tits up financially, you will see war, and people killing each other, a lot of good PM's will do you... didn't work out so well for the Jews, now did it????

Orly's picture

The economy collapses, world on fire and all that...

Ferry to where, exactly?

Winston Churchill's picture

Across the Styx ,of course.

lemonobrien's picture

i rubs my brains togethers ans discovered niggas in china ans singapores, and everywhere else will pays me monies for golds. In veitcongs, i can even trade its for lands.

joego1's picture

PMs won't do shit but sit around and stay valuable.

Praetorian Guard's picture

Sure thing buddy. Stay valuable during and after an economic collapse? Not in a million years. Things ARE different this time.

tenpanhandle's picture

You are confusing paper gold promises for the real heavy metal.  I will trade anything I have extra for gold and silver during the coming economic collapse as I know I can then trade them for things I might need from others.  Thousands of  years of human history backs its place as a store of value worldwide. Nothing is different this time or any time when it comes to human nature.  You can bank on that.

What's in your wallet? 

cynicalskeptic's picture

hmmm... well I guess you CAN burn fiat for heat.        Best to stock up on some of the baser metals like copper jacketed lead as well as gold and silver - though it seems like those are more likely to be confiscated.

MrBoompi's picture

If I was Blythe Masters, I'd be wetting my pants with laughter when I see people try to predict the price of gold using "wave patterns" and graphs. 


pbppbp's picture

There are billions of better reasons why Blythe is wetting herself right now.

cynicalskeptic's picture

She and her minions are doing their best to copntrol what you see on those charts but in the long run their best hope is for a controlled retreat.  At this point the game seems to be to keep the RATE of price increases 'reasonable' and slow enough not to garner attention.  Keep the volatility high and sheeple nervous about PM's - whiel fleecing those you can with 'We Buy Gold' scams stressing the 'high' prices they can get for converting their unwanted gold into valuable cash.  

I have a suspicion that when the end finally arrives, the banks will be long on a massive scale and the masses will be utterly bankrupt and desperate - welcome to the new Feudalism.  (you don't believe it's opnly China and Russia that's buying up the gold the Western Central banks 'lent out' do you?      The ultimate scam - banks 'help' governments prop up their fiat currencies by participating in the gold games - all the while filling their own vaults.   The big guys will cash out of GLD and SLV - leaving 'investors' holding worth less paper.  Lots of luck seeking redress on that - ever read the prospectuses - holes big enough to drive dump trucks full of gold out of.......

Fuh Querada's picture

Ralph Nelson Elliott died a pauper.
Those blue lines are missing at least one peak or trough each.
And why do those little blue arrows on the right point upwards?
Don't tell me - you have a "proprietary oscillator" that has infallibly predicted 100% of all previous moves in hindsight!
Oh, and which "selected" GDXJ stocks have you analyzed with what results?

Evil Bugeyes's picture

An "Elliot Wave" is where you wave goodbye to your money.

EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

Not holding metal is where you wave goodbye to your money.

Orly's picture

I am not seeing it, either, even on the charts above.  The junior minors are still trading below a 10-Week moving average.

Who uses a 10MA anyway?

Gold has pierced above the 2nd standard deviation Bollinger Band and has also covered a Bullish Gartley pattern on the Daily, even as it reaches to the top of a trendline established from the highs of 04 Oct '12 and 23 Nov '12.

Hmmmm.  I would say to not get all happy as some caution is in order here.


RockyRacoon's picture

I prefer reading chicken innards, and they tell me to "buy gold!".   It takes guts, I know, but all available funds are going for the PMs.  Of course, that's just a visceral response.

Hook Line and Sphincter's picture


From what i remember you telling me several years ago, in a thread similar to this one, you actually throw the gizzards ON the chart itself. This has worked out great for me re Au and Ag, but not so well with Pd. 


bigkahuna's picture

If I wanted to put my rosy glasses back on, I would head to cnbc.

Cycle's picture

I keep wondering whether the Fed will attempt to  monetize the garbage on its balance sheet to "get ahead" of rising rates. Is gold  telling us that  the "crack-up boom" Von Mises described is commencing to begin?