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Gold Sentiment Poor Due To Range-Bound Trade and Banks' Bearish Predictions

GoldCore's picture




 

 

Gold is little changed today in pound, euro and dollar terms after the Bank of England and the ECB kept interest rates at record low levels. Ultra loose monetary policies continue.


Gold in Japanese Yen, 4 Day – (Bloomberg)

The ECB kept interest rates at 0.75% and the BOE kept interest rates at 0.5% the lowest level since 1694. The BOE pledged to maintain their ‘stimulus’ or money printing or debt monetisation programmes.

This morning the Japanese yen fell to new record lows against gold on the TOCOM at over 157 million yen per ounce.

Ultra loose monetary policies are set to continue which is bullish for the precious metals.

Mario Draghi’s news conference begins at 1330 GMT and the ECB President could set the course for the single currency. If Draghi’s speech warns about the recent rise in the euro then the euro may fall against the dollar and gold.

Gold's range bound trading between $1,650/oz and $1,700/oz since December continues.


Gold in USD, 2 Year – (Bloomberg)

Physical gold volumes have been quite low in recent days with very few new buyers coming into the market. More clients have been selling than buying in recent days. But the more aware and risk averse money continues to add to their allocations. 

The mix is quite unusual as normally there is a clear bias towards clients selling or buying. On recent years, during gold’s bull market the bias has been towards buying.

Recent technical action has been poor and the short term trend is down and this allied to perceptions that the global economic situation has improved slightly is leading to the preponderance of sellers.

Sellers have also be emboldened by recent bold pronouncements of the end of gold’s bull market – by many of the same banks who never predicted the bull market or advised their clients to own gold in the first place.

Many of the banks, now predicting gold’s bull market will end in 2013, never predicted gold’s bull market in the first place. Most were bearish on gold in the early to mid years of the bull market and most only became bullish quite recently.

Very few have been consistent and very few have been bullish on gold in the long term.

It is also worth noting that most of them do not understand gold and continue to see it as a trade. 

Many of these banks' primary focus is short term profit, often trading profits, and therefore they do not understand the long term, passive diversification benefits of gold in a portfolio or as financial insurance. 

It is also not profitable for them to advise a buy and hold diversification strategy as more prudent advisers have been advising in recent years.  

While sentiment towards gold remains poor after recent weakness, the smart money is focused on the fundamentals and is positioning itself for higher gold prices in the medium term. Soros, Gross, Faber, Rogers, Paulson and other respected investors who predicted the crisis have large allocations which they continue to hold.


Silver in USD, 3 Year – (Bloomberg)

Investors need to be patient, fade out the day to day noise from banks and hedge funds and focus on gold’s value rather than its price movements – particularly in the short term. 

It remains important to focus on the long term diversification benefits of having an allocation to gold, silver, platinum and palladium.

NEWS   
Gold edges up before ECB meets, PGMs near 17-mth highs - Reuters

Gold Rises in Asia, Near-Term Outlook Weak; Precious Metals Lower – The Wall Street Journal

China's 2012 gold output up 12% - Paper - Reuters

Gold vending machine in Florida may be first of many – The Palm Beach Post

COMMENTARY
'Europe's A Fragile Bubble', Citi's Buiter Warns Of Unrealistic Complacency – Zero Hedge

Does China Still Love Gold? – Market Oracle

Video: Horror Bankers Attack – Max Keiser

Video: Goldsmiths put the nation's coins through their paces – The Telegraph

For breaking news and commentary on financial markets and gold, follow us on Twitter.

 

 

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Thu, 02/07/2013 - 14:34 | 3223599 DeficitAlchemist
DeficitAlchemist's picture

Base Knee Jerk reaction dictates the Banks calls on the Anti Fiat will be wealth destroying, as with the bulk of their Muppet stuffing activities.. do the Inverse hand back their paper take physical in PM's.. no change here till post reset day... all contrary info is misinformation designed to shake out impatient hands, who cant appreciate a 18 month  sideways Continuation pattern technically as the next step up in a what will be a 'till debt reset day' trade. 18 months is small timeframe relative to a 13 year bull run approaching 'ten bagger' status.

 

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 14:34 | 3223598 DeficitAlchemist
DeficitAlchemist's picture

Base Knee Jerk reaction dictates the Banks calls on the Anti Fiat will be wealth destroying, as with the bulk of their Muppet stuffing activities.. do the Inverse hand back their paper take physical in PM's.. no change here till post reset day... all contrary info is misinformation designed to shake out impatient hands, who cant appreciate a 18 month  sideways Continuation pattern technically as the next step up in a what will be a 'till debt reset day' trade. 18 months is small timeframe relative to a 13 year bull run approaching 'ten bagger' status.

 

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 14:07 | 3223497 lotusblue
lotusblue's picture

Indeed ! When market inbalances finally correct and they will,we'll see deflation not seen for 80 years -gold may be remolded for boat anchors ! It's been a great runup by gold interests,I'm out of it and quite happy about it.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 17:06 | 3224141 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

Central Banks are buying it up like hot cakes for what reason you say?

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 14:19 | 3223532 Dennis Mack Gyvner
Dennis Mack Gyvner's picture

Good luck buying what you can with those pieces of paper stuffed into your matress...or would that be those electronic numbers ON your bank statement.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 13:43 | 3223404 Madcow
Madcow's picture

Any minute now, governments are going to dramaticllay cut spending and interest rates are going to rise significantly as debt contracts are abrogated throughout the financial system.

That is going to cause the pice of gold to fall dramatically - 

 

 

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 17:08 | 3224149 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

You trolls are sickening. You can't have unlimited QE with bond intervention and rising interest rates. You know not of what you speak.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 13:45 | 3223415 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

....LOL....good one !!

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 13:38 | 3223382 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

"Ultra loose monetary policies are set to continue which is bullish for the precious metals."

 

Gold is only "allowed" to do ,what it is "allowed" to do.

Anyone who plays the game should know that by now....

Right Goldcore...???

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 13:33 | 3223381 moonstears
moonstears's picture

Sell it all, now, and buy 22lr ammo./sarc(kinda)

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 13:41 | 3223400 Rusty Trombone
Rusty Trombone's picture

22LR is even harder to find than 5.56mm right now.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 14:04 | 3223472 moonstears
moonstears's picture

Rusty, and who'd have thunk it? .45 ACP and 9mm trickle, 12 GA going but around...everything else (including very cheap(3 mos ago) yet not too effective 22LR) is tough SE East coast USA.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 14:00 | 3223468 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

7.62 x 39 is not easy to find either.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 13:18 | 3223337 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Platinum has been on a recent tear, up 11.7% in a month.

Is this typical?  Well...

"Platinum on the march?!"

http://tinyurl.com/au74geq

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 14:20 | 3223547 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

I believe the banks are talking their book..., talking it down while buying it up.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 17:12 | 3224166 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

Presto! That is exactly the play. Fleecing those using leverage to buy their gold on the cheap. Buy physical, stay aggressive.

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