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Goldman Sachs Jeff Currie Continues to Botch WTI-Brent Spread

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By EconMatters

 

Revise enough times; you might just get it right!

 

Jeff Currie originally said that by January of 2013 the WTI-Brent spread would narrow to $4 because of the Seaway pipeline; Jeff amended this target after Cushing inventory continues to build even though the Seaway route was in operation (June 2012 100,000 barrels per day) to $8 by January of 2013 once the pipeline was expanded (January 2013 400,000 barrels per day). Now Jeff Currie states that the spread will shrink to $6 in the second quarter of 2013 (No more pipeline expansions during 2nd quarter).

 

Oil Industry full of Bad Analysts

 

I hope Goldman Sachs doesn`t trade on his recommendations. Jeff Currie has to be one of the worst oil analysts in the industry, and the oil industry is full of bad analysts. How he has continued to be employed in this capacity despite being incorrect on almost every major call of the last decade regarding the oil markets is astonishing. 

 

I guess Jeff Currie is another case where job performance for analysts on Wall Street is less critical than keeping good relationships with upper management. Jeff Currie must have pictures on somebody high up in Goldman Sachs because he couldn`t analyze the oil markets if his life depended upon it.

 

WTI-Brent Spread $20

 

Well it is January of 2013 and Jeff the WTI-Brent spread is trading around $20, the same range it was for 2012, and Cushing Oklahoma has nearly 52 million barrels in storage, with no signs of decreasing anytime soon in a significant manner. 

 

 

The Spread existed when Cushing only had 30 Million in Storage

 

For context a year ago Cushing storage stood at 30 million barrels, and there was a significant spread back then between the two oil benchmarks. So even if magically robust demand for products picked up all over the world, do you envision Cushing storage being reduced down below 30 million barrels?

Maybe if inflows were flat or declining! But if the trajectory of domestic production continues for 2013 which seems as certain as Jeff Currie being wrong again in the second quarter then inflows into Cushing will be trending higher. 

 

Refiners on the other side of trade

 

The refiners have been on the other side of this trade, actually putting money down on the trade by committing resources to expanding their operations to take further advantage of this spread continuing. There is a reason that Hess closed the refinery on the East Coast, they cannot make the same margins that the Gulf Coast refineries can because of cheap access to WTI oil. 

 

Jeff Currie has woefully underestimated the magnitude of the rise in domestic and North American production of oil. Cushing is going to need to expand storage facilities well beyond 100 million barrels to keep up with the domestic drilling activity in North America. There are so many projects that haven`t even begun producing but will come online over the next 5 to 10 years.

 

 

$6 Average Spread for 2nd Quarter seems implausible 

 

Therefore, even if we take the best case scenario for a 30 million drawdown at Cushing, and given the continuing troubles in the Middle East, and throw on top of that the dynamics of benchmarking products to the global Brent Oil contract. 

 

It seems highly unlikely that the WTI – Brent Spread averages $6 for the second quarter. The best chance for a contracting spread of this magnitude would be a severe “Risk Off” event as the spread has narrowed the most during the past two years on ‘asset withdrawals’ from markets.

 

 

 

Further Reading - Seaway Pipeline No Panacea for Cushing's Oil Glut

 


International Peg: Holy Gail for Refining Margins

 

This is important because traders, hedgers and refiners set up their models from the products based upon certain given levels of price for the base oil commodity. The incentive - given that products are exportable - is to peg products to the highest international input price for oil. 

 

You can call it Brent or whatever you like but refiners have learned after years of getting killed on margins that the domestic peg will never work. The international peg has unlocked the Holy Grail for refining margins!

 

 

The Brent Premium & Crack Spreads

 

Products going forward will always be priced to some much higher priced benchmark. You didn`t honestly believe all that crap about shortages in Brent, tight markets, etc.? Brent exists, and the premium that Brent represents over WTI for a reason, it helps ensure the pricing model for the Crack Spreads.

 

 

This is why sometimes Brent moves the product prices, and equally the product prices move Brent, it is to ensure the profit models of the crack spreads by the refining industry. So bottom line Jeff Currie, the refiners are going to make their money, and they cannot make their money with a $6 second quarter spread between WTI and Brent. 

 

So it seems on even a conservative basis that the WTI-Brent spread should average over $12 for the second quarter which starts in 7 weeks. 

 

Multi-Variable Analysis vs. Caveman Analysis

 

I think Jeff Currie has just done what I call a one variable analysis: 1) Cushing large supply, 2) Open Seaway pipeline, 3) Ergo, WTI-Brent Spread goes away. The WTI-Brent Spread is much more complex that this and requires at the very least a multi-variable analysis. Some of the important factors for a multi-variable analysis include: 1) North American Production, 2) The Middle East, 3) Crack & Product Spreads, 4) Refining Margins, 5) Export Market for Products, 6) International Peg, 7) ICE Exchange & Brent contract Transparency issues 8) Lack of Global Inventory Data, 9) Greed, Market Manipulation & the Profit Factor, 10) Historical Prices & Shifting Oil Market Dynamics

 

The best & brightest work at Goldman Sachs

 

Unfortunately, Goldman Sachs doesn`t seem to reward competence in their analysts as Jeff Currie has never been one to utilize multi-variable models in any analysis over the last decade at Goldman Sachs. I used to think that Jeff Currie was just a “mouth piece” for Goldman Sachs Trading Book, but I have come to the conclusion that he really is just a bad oil analyst! 

 

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Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:45 | 3225892 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

He needs to please the people who pay him, not us. If you're not completely full of shit who will buy your overpriced products anyway? I'd like to hear an honest explanation why we have high oil prices when we have oil coming out of our ears. Is supply and demand dead?

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 13:45 | 3226333 goldenbuddha454
goldenbuddha454's picture

When was the last time they actually built a refinery in the US?  Do you think the EPA has been drill-friendly onshore or offshore since the BP disaster?  Is the Keystone pipeline getting a thumbs up from O?  We live in a business unfriendly environment and as long as that is the case, companies will not go out on a limb to bring product to market without being shall we say more than fairly compensated for their product.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:09 | 3225796 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

How is the price surging with zero demand. Oh that's right, $85 Billion a month again...

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:27 | 3225841 MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

World is larger than demand in the U.S. and if you look what has been happening is that Euro zone and US are getting squeezed out as demand in a lot of parts of the world continues to really surge including China and India. 

The only country in the world left capable of bringing on massive additional crude oil supplies that will meaningfully affect price is Iraq.  

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 12:27 | 3226002 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

funny how many miss that

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 09:32 | 3225512 trendybull459
trendybull459's picture

Oil will go down soon and very strong:
expect 73$ range 5$

 

http://trendybull777.blog.com/

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 09:27 | 3225502 dcb
dcb's picture

LOL I sent this to the FT yesterday

 

Sir, it seems to be rather rare that the ft engages in investigative journalism. While I have no proof, I'm rather certain there is a great deal of funny happenings in the pricing of WTI. Considering the lower prices of wti aren't reflected in the pump, there is a huge margin being made somewhere that shouldn't exist in an efficient market. While I do not know what transport costs for the oil by rail are, it's hard to imagine those costs eliminate the pricing differential.    Honestly, the people should be looking at who is trading these futures (if they are long or short), and who is taking delivery of the product. I have a very large suspicion the price is being kept lower on the trading floor by the same companies taking delivery, and being sold for a large mark up.    While I don't doubt there are transportation bottlenecks, I think the ft should be going a bit further to investigate why a price differential doesn't appear at retail, and where a large profit margin exists that according to economic theory shouldn't  

 

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 08:58 | 3225449 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

You are - putting it mildly - deluded if you think that oil prices can be analyzed or predicted by fancy charts. They are RIGGED just like the precious metals. If you disagree, then give me an even half-way convincing explanation of the drop from 150$ to 30$ in 2008-9. I have not heard one yet.
Further question - who is holding the physical commodity and where?

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 09:02 | 3225462 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

+1, Jack. But hey, you are throwing me in an existential crisis: what happened to your avatar? I loved it

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 15:27 | 3226706 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

Thanks Gh- the EUR seems like it will not disintegrate as the avatar implied, and the Monty Python character ("Dr Edward Kraszt") is much more in keeping with the surreal world we are living in
Cheers JS

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 08:32 | 3225427 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

the oil industry is not full of bad analysts - the oil industry is full of liars

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 08:31 | 3225423 doggings
doggings's picture

you really havent been doing this very long have you?  if GS say the spread will reduce, you can be sure they are long Brent & short WTI as they take the exact opposite of what their muppets do. 

its really not that difficult.

 

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 09:49 | 3225554 French Frog
French Frog's picture

Exactly.

There is only 1 variable: you must be on the same side as GS prop desk and ignore everything else!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!