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Who Will Win The Currency Wars?

Asia Confidential's picture





 

As debate about potential currency wars heats up, commentators including myself have called out the likely losers, the Japanese yen and South Korean won being high on most lists. Much less discussed has been which countries will win from the currency wars. After all, the currency market is a zero-sum game - as one currency declines, another must go up. In this issue, I'm going to suggest that Singapore and to a lesser extent, Thailand and Malaysia, will be relative winners. And I'm also going to explain why some supposed currency safe havens - including Australia, China, Canada, Switzerland and Norway - are unlikely to perform as well.

Now I know that some will point to gold being money and the ultimate winner of the race to the currency bottom. I too am a gold bull and suggest the metal should be a core component of any investment portfolio. Having written about gold on previous occasions though, today the focus will be on currencies.

The wars are just beginning

In early January I wrote the following in a newsletter called Sayonara To The Yen:

"The yen could collapse. Anyone for 200, perhaps 300, yen to the dollar? ... The impact from any Japanese financial crisis will go well beyond Japan though. After all, Japan is the world's third largest economy, accounting for 8.3% of global GDP. Its banks finance a lot of business both in Asia and elsewhere. Japan is also a major exporter competing with South Korea and Taiwan on high-end electronics, auto and industrial goods.

Think about the potential impact on South Korea for a moment. Exports account for 52% of GDP there ... South Korea and other countries won't allow their exporters to become totally uncompetitive against their Japanese counterparts though. They'll join the fight to trash their currencies in order to help their exporters."

Since then, the yen has tanked. I had thought there'd be some short-term respite in February but that hasn't been the case. The reason is that the Bank of Japan Governor, Masaaki Shirakawa, has announced that he will resign on March 19, three weeks before this term was due to end. This means Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will be able to appoint a new Governor that is more in line with his inflationist policies. Simply put, money printing is on the way sooner than markets thought and the yen has got pummelled further.

Just as important has been the reaction to yen weakening. Many countries have voiced their concerns. Those concerns are intensifying, particularly in Europe given continued euro strength. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has signalled policymakers are worried the euro's advance could dampen inflation and hamper an economic recovery. France has been a particularly vocal critic of the rising euro.

The broader issue is simple: the developed world has too much debt and to reduce this debt, they want to create inflation and depreciate the value of their currencies (thereby reducing the value of the debt). It's not going to be able to grow its way out of the debt or cut spending enough to make the debt more manageable.

Which currencies won't win

The losers from currency wars are relatively easy to identify, with the Japanese yen, South Korean won and British sterling being high up on the list. Less easy to identify are those currencies that will prove safe havens. There are a number of currently perceived safe havens that could prove anything but.

Let's start with the commodity currencies. Depreciating currencies mean tangible assets such as commodities should perform reasonably well. Those currencies largely dependent on commodities should also outperform. On a long-term basis (five years) though, the current commodities bull market is likely to end. The safe haven status of the Australian dollar, Canadian loonie and Norwegian krone will be under threat.

Let's turn to the Australian dollar or Aussie as it's commonly known. On a long-term basis, the Aussie is extremely risky. Australia has benefited from a three decade property boom and 12-year commodities boom. The problem is that the property boom is unwinding as highly indebted consumers pay down their debt and worry about job security as unemployment rises. When the commodity boom ends too, there will be nothing to fill the gap.

Australia has been poorly governed over the past decade, leaving few globally competitive industries other than mining. That might be ok if the country's balance sheet was in good shape. Unfortunately though, even during boom times, Australia has consistently run budget and trade deficits. In sum, long-term investors should stay away from the Aussie. As an Australian resident, I hope I'm wrong though!

The Canadian loonie suffers similar afflictions. I regularly visit Canada as my wife is Canadian. On my last visit in July 2012, I was surprised to read of an east-west divide developing in the country. The mining-intensive west was enjoying good times while the more manufacturing-exposed east was not doing as well. The reason that I was surprised was that it was exactly the same issue being faced in Australia.

Like Australia, Canada too has a property bubble propelled by too-easy bank lending standards that's left people with way too much debt. The one big difference with Australia though is the significant reliance on trade with the U.S.. If you're bullish on American prospects, the loonie may hold up even with deflating mining and property bubbles. I'm not optimistic on a U.S. recovery and so the loonie could be in as much trouble as the Aussie.

Many sophisticated investors have a preference for the Norwegian krone. This is understandable given Norway's rock-solid balance sheet. But I am less optimistic given the country's reliance on oil and trade with Europe. Also, it appears to this author that the currency is currently both over-owned and over-valued.

Finally to a currency not commodity-exposed, the Swiss franc. Historically, the franc has proved the ultimate safe haven currency. Switzerland has had impeccable economic credentials, with high savings rates, low taxes, minimal debt and flourishing exports.

But over the past four years, the country has gone mad. It's printed so much money that foreign exchange reserves having gone up 7x, now equivalent to 70% of the country's GDP. All of this to keep its exporters competitive of course. But it's likely to set the country back for decades. And the franc too.

The problem with the yuan

Many argue that the Chinese yuan is undervalued and will inevitably appreciate in future. Particularly as other countries seek to become more competitive by devaluing their own currencies. But I couldn't disagree more with this assessment.

To understand why, let's take a step back. One of the most overlooked recent global developments has been slowing foreign exchange (forex) reserves in China. Forex reserves are simply foreign currency and bonds held by monetary authorities. Historically, China has had strong growth as there's been overwhelming demand for the yuan. To prevent rapid yuan appreciation and help its exporters, China has printed loads of money and invested that money abroad, primarily in U.S. Treasuries. Buying these Treasuries has kept U.S. rates low and American consumers have been happy to buy cheap Chinese goods.

But forex reserves in China are now stalling as more people are getting their money out of the country. Many brokers claim this development is cyclical, that China has been going through a rough patch and people are being cautious by getting their money out. But what if it's structural? Perhaps the Chinese themselves see their currency and assets as overvalued, with better value found elsewhere? It's hard not to see at least an element of that.

Also, without forex reserve growth, China doesn't need to print money to buy overseas assets. In fact, it may end up having to do the opposite, buying yuan to maintain the exchange rate peg to the U.S. dollar. This would be deflationary for both China and the rest of the world.

The upshot is that if China's economy deteriorates and authorities are forced to choose between maintaining the exchange rate peg or foregoing it to depreciate their currency, which are they going to choose? My bet's on the latter.

As for the argument that internationalising the yuan would result in yuan appreciation, it's hard to see the logic of this either. If more Chinese have the choice to get their money out of the country (which is illegal now), won't they go ahead and do it? So put me in the camp that thinks the yuan is overvalued rather than the other way around.

Singapore is (already) the new Switzerland

As a former Portfolio Manager and sell-side analyst, I covered the gaming sector across Asia and subsequently visited the Singapore casinos on a regular basis. What amazed me then was the meticulous planning that went into developing the casinos and tourism in Singapore more broadly. With the casino and tourism numbers, targets were exceeded on almost every count.

The meticulous planning of Singapore is part of the reason why it's been a phenomenal success story over the past 55 years. You just have to look at the country that it split from, Malaysia, to realise how successful Singapore has been.

Singapore is now the world's third-richest in terms of GDP (power purchasing parity) per capita. It also boasts one of the best balance sheets with a large current account surplus (exports minus imports and transfer payments), balanced fiscal budget, high savings rates and zero foreign debt. Not bad for a country with no natural resources and a small population.

 GDP per capita1 - Feb13

One question mark has always been over the country's high public debt, at an estimated 110% of GDP in 2012. But almost all of this debt is in the form of Singapore government bonds and the main holder is the Central Provident Fund (CPF) Board. The CPF is a pension fund that's primarily used to fund public housing. It dates back to Singapore's beginnings when the country needed money, not knowing whether it would survive. In other words, it's all government money - the government owes itself and no-one else.

The unique thing about Singapore is that it manages it currency against a basket of currencies. This gives it flexibility. And most importantly, Singapore has refused to engage in the stupidity of quantitative easing (QE) with which the rest of the world is currently enthralled.

 sing chart2

All right, you're probably saying - Singapore's in a strong position but is that going to continue and will the currency rise? The short answer to both is yes.

Recently, the government released a population white paper, detailing its long-term thinking on population policies (meticulous planning again). It's a critical issue given the country has one of the world's lowest birth rates.

The government is projecting the population to reach 5.8-6 million by 2020 and 6.5-6.9 million by 2030, from 5.3 million. To achieve that target, it would mean slowing growth in foreign workers (close to 40% of the population), to around 2.6% per annum from close to 7% currently. With labour force growth moderating to 1-2% per year to 2020, the government is estimating an average 3-5% GDP growth through the rest of the decade.

There's little doubt that the government is treading a fine line on the population issue. The local population is agitated at the growing wealth of foreigners, increasing inequality, crowded populace etc. This has been reflected at recent election polls. But the government and its people also realise they need foreign workers to maintain economic growth. Remember that GDP growth equals population growth plus by productivity growth.

All of this means that you can expect a tighter labour market and higher wages going forward. And this will put upward pressure on inflation and the currency.

What then are the risks? Well, Singapore is reliant on exports and if there is another global economic downturn, its economy would be impacted. Also, there's been talk that the government may seek to slow the growth in currency appreciation. That may happen though note that it doesn't mean it will pursue a policy of currency devaluation.
 
Other candidates

For wont of space, I'll very briefly mention two other currencies poised to outperform: namely the Thai baht and Malaysian ringgit. Both are reasonably solid currencies, though not to the same extent as the Singapore dollar. I quite like the baht as a long-term bet as:

  • Thailand is potentially emerging from a long period of stagnation.
  • It would be a primary beneficiary of a comeback of neighbouring Myanmar.
  • It's building a low-cost industrial base to match and perhaps beat China.
  • The country's showing clear signs of political maturity given the peaceful transition to the latest government.
Malaysia is higher risk given its commodities exposure, budget deficit and political uncertainty with elections approaching. Hopefully the next government can implement badly-needed reforms and kick-start the economy. Perhaps the recent impressive growth of Asean neighbours including the Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand, will spur it into action.
 


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Thu, 02/14/2013 - 19:10 | Link to Comment steveo77
steveo77's picture

Kind of funny, kind of....from an email

Big Gov and their "partners" have a real conundrum on their hands, they can't figure out whether they should kill us, or make us produce.   

You have to feel sorry for them, the sheeple are a real problem.

 

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2013/02/a-valentine-for-those-confused-p...

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 08:51 | Link to Comment silverdragon
silverdragon's picture

Setarcos, I understand that you are of limited intelligence and support whatever political party it is that you support. That aside. How about a bit of a world view instead of you rattling off political nonesense from which ever party you support. Or are you the retarded kid brother or intern of the pratt that wrote this article?

Some facts about Australias economy:

- Public debt is 6% of GDP pretty f*ckin great in this current economic environment. Only gets this way after decades of great fiscal management.

- About 70% of our exports  of coal, iron ore, gold, meat, wool, alumina, wheat, wine, diamonds, natural gas, machinery and transport equipment are all going to Asia. Asia is going to do better going forward than US or Europe.

- PPP has us at 17th largest economy in the world. Not bad for 20 odd million people.

- The IMF in April 2012 predicted that Australia would be the best-performing major advanced economy in the world over the next two years. OK they are idiots but yeah we will be the best performing country.

- According to the 2011 Credit Suisse Global Wealth report, Australia has a median wealth of US$222,000 ($217,559), the highest in the world and nearly four times the amount of each US adult. No. 1 aint bad at wealth which is a kinda important indicator.

- China is the largest purchaser of Australian debt.

Conclusion

China loves Australia (tourism/education/imports) and needs Australia and as long as we stay good little exporters of what they need we will continue to do well. Here is the kickers not even our idiot politicians can f*ck it up, the Chinese prefer to buy what they need from Australia instead of America.

 

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 06:44 | Link to Comment IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

Singapore, like Switzerland can be a neutral thriving place of business for all opposing world powers simply because the countries are gnats with no physical power.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 04:29 | Link to Comment pbppbp
pbppbp's picture

Doesn't gold and silver win the currency wars?

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 01:39 | Link to Comment steveo77
steveo77's picture

Hey check this one out, I just did a Checklist of Governments in Terminal Decline (kind of stolen from Simon Black) 
 
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2013/02/checklist-for-government- in-terminal.html

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 06:49 | Link to Comment IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

I am mulling over an alternative view with regard to Argentina. It is possible that the steps are required to free the country from international banker control. If the bankers control the price of money and commodities (the free market is a myth ... bankers control prices) then that control has to be transferred to the government to free the country from banker control.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 02:17 | Link to Comment Albertarocks
Albertarocks's picture

The east/west divide in Canada is not a new phenomenon.  For the vast majority of the time it's not much of an issue, nor is it a particularly strong sentiment.  In fact I think the author is exaggerating the divide as it exists even today.  But there have been times when it really flares up big time and 'real' anger starts to emerge, particularly on the part of the west.  More specifically, it's not really east vs. west.  It's the west vs. the federal government which is seated in Ontario.  To the east of Ontario are the 4 maritime provinces which generally speaking are not as wealthy as the west.  But nor are they negative toward the west.  To the contrary, there are many maritimers who migrate to the west to work and they are welcomed with open arms.  They're great people and they get along with westerners extremely well.  Basically the maritime provinces and the west are on the same team more or less. 

 

To give you a prime example... decades ago the big island province of Newfoundland discovered they had offshore oil and wanted to produce it.  Naturally they needed a lot of financing in order to built and launch a giant ocean platform.  They went to the federal government for that financing and were quickly shown where the door is.  Can you believe that?  Newfoundland had an opportunity to get wealthy if they could just drill that oil, and the federal government kicked them in the balls.  So Newfoundland asked Alberta for a loan of $3 billion.  That was a hell of a lot of money back then... 3 decades ago.  But Alberta, nearly 3000 miles away, had it in cash and said "Sure, your proposal makes a ton of sense.  Where do we send the check?".  So Newfies really appreciate their 'brother Canadians' in Alberta and for good reason.  And they paid us back too, on time.  Friends.  The entire rift is solely with the Federales because once the platform was built, they swooped in demanding "their share".  Their share of what?  They refused to even finance it.

http://oilrig-photos.com.s3.amazonaws.com/107.jpg

 

To the northeast of Ontario is the giant province of Quebec.  But the Quebec story is kind of a side issue so I won't address it here.  So in truth, the divide is really between the resource rich west and las federales.  What it boils down to is the fact that the west continuously gets raped by the federal government and forced to subsidize Quebec and the rest of eastern Canada.

 

Under good economic times, Ontario does very well because it's a huge manufacturing economy.  But when the economies of the USA and Canada pull back, the Ontario manufacturing sector gets hit really hard.  Back in the 1970's when Canada was booming (I could almost say "when isn't Canada booming", but not quite), the housing industry in western Canada purchased its door hardware for new homes from Ontario producers.  But the economy was booming so much that they couldn't produce the hardware fast enough.  So what do they do?  They supply Ontario first and force the west to wait.  Can you believe that we had new homes sitting there completely built, ready to occupy but with no doors on any of the rooms.  Homeowners had to wait as much as an extra 4 months to get their new home because builders couldn't turn the house over with no doors on the bedrooms and bathrooms.  We couldn't even hang doors because the 'east' (Ontario and it's manufacturing sector) would not share.    It has always screwed the west if it was to their advantage.  I was stunned to hear last week that here are shortages again... and Alberta is not getting shipments.  I apologize that I didn't pay attention to what the product was but that's a moot point really.

 

In the 1980's the Trudeau government instituted the National Energy Program that absolutely destroyed Alberta's oil business to the benefit of the rest of the country, especially Ontario.  Alberta is a powerhouse both economically as well as with it's full load of resources.  B.C. is loaded with resources.  Saskatchewan has a ton of resources.  All 3 of these western provinces are sick of taking it up the ass from the federal government.  But if any readers think the rift is so great that Canada would split apart, let me assure you it would take the 'rift' to increase by a factor of 10 plus about 80 nuclear bombs to even put a serious crack in the nation.  It 'is' united and nobody wants it to fracture in any way.  Except for the Quebecers but like I said... that's an entirely different type of issue.  And even 'they' are not particularly interested right now in separation.

 

The author is quite right about the property bubble.  The only saving grace is the fact that those who have purchased homes with cheap money have at least "legitimately" qualified for their mortgages.  No liar loans.  But if the oil sector were to implode, so will the real estate bubble.  But just keep in mind that it wouldn't be exacerbated by the liar loan type of debacle that the USA suffered.  As for the Loonie... the central banks of the two countries manage that pair on a daily basis because it's to the benefit of both countries that they don't stray too far from parity.  To the extent that they can manage it, the Loonie won't fall far.  But a global deflationary event of biblical proportions?  If that were to happen the USD would of course soar in value.  If that happens, commodities collapse in price.  If that happens, the Loonie collapses.  So other than the possibility of a run-of-the-mill-once-in-every-250-year deflationary time bomb, like the one that should have already gone off by now, the Loonie should be a safe bet.  Just keep your eye on that fuse.

 

I apologize for this, the longest comment I've posted on ZH.  But it's a topic that's dear to my heart and I thought I could shed some clarity on the story.  I promise not to do it again.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 03:05 | Link to Comment billsykes
billsykes's picture

In speaking of Canada and commodities, as the saying goes "rising tides lift all ships".

Ineptitude, fiscal irresponsibility, nepotism and caution all words that can be used to describe both sides of Canada.

This festering wound of a country colony will make the usa look like a healthy country when the housing and commodity boom busts, even just a bit.

Zero manufacturing, zero R&D, zero inside investment in anything outside of real estate and O&G. What people do not realize is that like the American dream, the Canadian illusion of resources is fake too- 70% of all oil sands- foreign owned, a fanny/freddy equivalent CMHC is capped at 600B, with 15% (10% in usa) employed by real estate related employers. 

The east west thing is being whittled away by a shitty western premier looking to introduce provincial tax and kill the provincial advantage to make up for the huge shortfall on the O&G based economy. Ontario is so far in debt it makes any US state look great by comparison.  (hint 90%+ the provincial/govt pension funds here are vertically integrated and immune to accountability, they also create huge conflicts of interest when they do invest and kill pe/vc/private investment )

#1 debt in USA: Connecticut: $4,859 Per Person
Canada: Ontario: $16,900 per person

"On the other hand, Ontario (population 13 million) has debt of $220-billion (Canadian) - $16,900 per person - an economy with roughly one-third the people and roughly 10 times the per-capita debt. "
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/ontario...

BOOOM!

Only illusion, just like fiat is the confidence game, everyone is too lazy to investigate- and there is not much coverage about this in Canada.

(hint Quebec knows Canada inc. has never succeeded from UK and knows its a stinking rotten ship, which is part of the reason they want out) (there is also no property rights in Canada)  

 

 

 

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 00:18 | Link to Comment silverdragon
silverdragon's picture

What a crap article!

Australia and Canada are a much safer long term bet than Singapore which is essentially an insignificant Chinese outpost. Australia has 20 years of sustained economic growth, tiny debt etc. Canada and Australia have commodities in abundance and in a world where confidence in fiat is gone what is safer than monsterously large countries with small populations and an abundance of above and below ground commodities. Oh and they are better run than most countries. Commodities will win the currency war d*ck head.

And like Unpatriotichoarder said having sh*t loads of gold and silver mining production is kinda a good thng. As Gold and Silver above all other commodities will win the currency war.

Go back to primary School!

 

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 07:39 | Link to Comment Setarcos
Setarcos's picture

It is you who should go back to primary school, or else come and live in Australia, where about the biggest housing bubble in the world is punctured.

You do not have a clue.

For decades Australia has been "a hole in the ground" exporting raw materials and manufacturing/value-adding almost nothing.

Whole forests have literally been felled to send as wood chips to Japan and China, where they have been turned into cardboard boxes containing products made from Australian iron ore, bauxite, etc. and shipped back to Australia value-added.

And as for Australian gold production!  The easy days ended a century ago, with Kalgoorlie now being a massive open-cut mine visible from the Moon, 'tis said.

As for Australia being "better run"!!  Your ignorance knows no bounds!!

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 00:12 | Link to Comment DoolieDoink
DoolieDoink's picture

When Hong Kong decouples from its US dollar link it will shoot up as it is seriously undervalued, sadly it is dragged down by being chained to the village idiot.

The link will be broken at some point soon - So I Hope !!!!

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 23:12 | Link to Comment CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

I'm thinking about 12% per year for the foreseeable future devaluation is what they are aiming for. I'm bracing for continued serious loss of USD purchasing power.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 18:54 | Link to Comment laosuwan
laosuwan's picture

Wow, dangerous advice in this post.

 

First, Singapore is not wealthy because of planning but because of money laundering. And in the long run, no city state's currency has ever survived.

 

Second, Thailand is not a currency to "invest" in. Thailand is bankrupt and has remained so since 1997. The old debt is masked in Vayapak funds but the new borrowing by the Shinawathra crime syndicate has taken Thailand to the brink. The wealthy Chinese who actually own the country are all getting their bank deposits off shore. The hot (stupid) money is flowing in and for now all looks good on the surface. But, the country is also unstable politically with violence and possible civil war around the corner at any moment, just waiting for the spark to set it off. Then which direction will those hot monies flow?

 

There is no safe currency anywhere. Diversify. Take a look at Chilean UF deposits, which are indexed against inflation. Think about gold. And real estate. I have pulled out of NZ and Aussie dollars, Swiss Franc and yen two years ago for all the reasons you list here and the currencies have hung on just fine without me. There is no need to rush, I have learned. Just be diversified.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 17:27 | Link to Comment yourfather
yourfather's picture

Rupiah isn't a viable option, bank Indonesia is relatively amateur in its ability to create currency policy and the government is still corrupt. Use it to buy tell assets.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 16:56 | Link to Comment Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Perhaps the winners will be oil exporters who do not have to devalue and who will relish the fact that they will be paying less for imports.

In any case the end result is the same.......no solution. They will chase each other to the bottom and then they will try other means which will be equally useless.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 23:55 | Link to Comment Lordflin
Lordflin's picture

Who will win the currency wars? My money is on the Grim Reaper.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 16:07 | Link to Comment Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

Soros

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 16:49 | Link to Comment El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

The deciders.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 16:02 | Link to Comment pashley1411
pashley1411's picture

If you are going to keep your money in East Asia, I don't see how you would take a city-state on soverign risk reasons over, say, Australia.   Smaller polities flip policy with greater speed than do larger, and no matter how batchit Labor is, at least Australia has ore and farms and is part of the Anglosphere.    (True, good natural resources haven't done much for the poor Argentines).

On a different matter, Japan will be an interesting precursor to show if a society with strong social cohesion, but to-the-sky debt and going-to-extinction birth rate, can politically hold together thru a couple generations of comparative per capita decline.   

Methinx Abe will be the last hurrah for the Japanese people, who will be more interested in those younguns keeping their music volume down rather than as an economic, or anything, power.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 23:26 | Link to Comment UnpatrioticHoarder
UnpatrioticHoarder's picture

The article says Australia has consistently run budget deficits - actually these were very small deficits by Western standards and the debt load is very low. The standard of govt has been high (yes, by Western standards), but the last 10 years haven't been as good as the 10 before that.

The real risk is the housing bubble collapses and the govt bails out the banks, ala Ireland.

That said, no mention of the two aces up Australia's sleeve - we are the world's 2nd biggest gold producer and a top 5 silver producer, including the world's biggest silver mine Cannington.

When gold goes to the freakin' moon these factors plus being a major coal, uranium, gas and iron ore producer will keep Australia in the upper echelons.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 15:56 | Link to Comment besnook
besnook's picture

in a worldwide fiat currency war the country with the most gold, silver(and other commodities) per capita wins. the dollar breaks down as soon as oil and commoditities are traded in  other currencies as is happening now. the commodityless countries will have to attach themselves to commodity full countries to survive so japan and singapore are done. the euro goes down with the dollar. india doesn't have far to fall and most of it's economy is local(and has a lot of gold)so it remains relatively stable. china is in a similar stae but with further to fall given the last twenty yars of growth and russia will merrily continue to ferment potatoes until oil demand picks up again. australia and canada look the best but australia has better weather and likely will stay away from the shooting war.

the usa will turn into a post katrina melee of barbarism and anarchy. it will be the most disruptive, chaotic dissolution of empire the world has ever witnessed.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 15:51 | Link to Comment Haole
Haole's picture

Barbarians with relics will probably do alright...

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 17:20 | Link to Comment steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

 

 

It's a dangerous fallacy that a country's currency is successful because it is costly. Countries with high-priced currencies tend not to do much 'real' business because the returns from holding currency or currency arbitrage are greater than returns from 'other' (Brand 'x') activites. The longer-term outcome of high-cost currencies is bank failure as depositors (lenders) to banks seek to become banks themselves and hold physical currency and/or currency analogs.

 

There are runs out of banks and system collapse as occurred in 1933 in the US and Western Europe. It is not the holding of currency itself but the collapse that is ruinous as all depositors are unable to retrieve their currency from the shattered banks, the deflationary impulse is thereby amplified.

 

Japan's problems have little to do with its currency but its dependence upon overseas fuel supply that it has until recently been arbitraging against its own customers. Now that Japan's customers are broke there are no gains to Japan's fuel arbitrage. Currency fiddling cannot help Japan, only stringent conservation and elimination of its bankrupting auto industry.

 

Whether Japan makes such a choice or not isn't particularly relevant as the outcome will be the same. Japan is now Greece with its increasing trade deficit, it will be decarred the same way Greece is being decarred ... by as cruel a means as possible.

 

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 08:27 | Link to Comment matrix2012
matrix2012's picture

Who invented the word "deplane"? Like George Carlin said, "I've never 'decarred' or 'detrained.'"

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 15:33 | Link to Comment oddjob
oddjob's picture

So how is the Loonie falling going to pop the Canadian housing 'bubble'?

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 15:31 | Link to Comment forwardho
forwardho's picture

Ask not who will win, for there will be only losers.

 Like a three legged stool if even one of the major players fall, all will suffer.

The worlds economy is interconected.

The common man will bare the brunt of the pain.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 15:24 | Link to Comment ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

The end game globalist model clearly favors the east (openly non democratic). The movement of gold toward the east (China) is an obvious tell as to where power accumulates. Lessening the role of Western culture and in particular, American mythology, is paramount to establishing 'the new world order'.

Me thinks the players are merely trying desperately to get ahead of a far larger game..One that they will lose.

Desperation all around.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 15:18 | Link to Comment Aegelis
Aegelis's picture

Click the green up arrow if the first thing you did was hunt for the charts. I think ZH has turned me into a chart addict...

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 15:00 | Link to Comment blindman
blindman's picture

who will win the currency wars?
the bankers perhaps? ....

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 14:59 | Link to Comment “Rebellion to t...
“Rebellion to tyranny is obedience to God.”-ThomasJefferson's picture


Who Will Win The Currency Wars?   Have the thieves at Goldman and JPM Chase decided?

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 15:51 | Link to Comment TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

The new 1-Worldo currency will end up as the winner.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 23:36 | Link to Comment debtandtaxes
debtandtaxes's picture

And one-world currency will be heralded as the perfect solution after they crash all soverign currencies with hyperinflation. Banking - centralized worldwide. A bank fiat currency controlled by a private corporation.

 

Wow.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 15:12 | Link to Comment Mountainview
Mountainview's picture

The game is obviously, who devalues most and fastest. The FED has the best cards !!!

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 14:54 | Link to Comment No Euros please...
No Euros please we're British's picture

Maybe you're asking the wrong question? Maybe it should be "Who will win the default wars?"

Looks like Russia got a head start but the US could make a late comeback if they hurry up.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 14:21 | Link to Comment Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

The best liar will win.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 14:18 | Link to Comment diogeneslaertius
diogeneslaertius's picture

the NWO laboratory economies

as per white papers written 70 years ago

as per the changeover detailed in countless state dept. memoranda, er i mean CFR articles... my bad!

 

CHN, India, Indonesia, Singapore et al.

in short anywhere the government openly capitulates with the NWO agenda to the extent that the population is effectively enslaved with no hope of ever being free

the US has been used and used up, the pitbull has outlived its usefulness

after the currency war metrics shake out and we have a RMB/SDR/gold config you will see the military hand off

meanwhile we could circumvent all of this by rolling back treaties and using a basket FVCom backing strategy for the dollar, incremental tariffs etc.

 

solid blow-by-blow

but of course there will be no real winners

the only real winners in a rigged global game are the conmen who setup the board.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 13:26 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

The dollar is your winner. It is the only currency that has other countries use it as their reserve currency. "as long as I have dollars I have access to all the commodities I need." that includes labor I might add. "the most valuable commodity." the real question that needs to be asked is about MARKETS and not currencies...as in "once I blah-bleeeeee-blah" what MARKETS will I be selling into. Those are the currencies you want to own/hold/buy into in my view.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 17:42 | Link to Comment TSA gropee
TSA gropee's picture

I'm gonna say it flat out. About a snowball's chance in hell the dollar will win, perhaps in the very short term it may, but I don't see it for the long haul. Any currency that is tied to a sovereign nation will not survive, which is all of them. A new, perhaps global E-currency will ultimately win, but my guess is the sheeple pain index (SPI) is not yet high enough for TPTB to pull the trigger on that one.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 15:15 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

In  some ways I hope your right.

Common sense ,and history both tell me you are in denial,and about to receive a

very rude awakening.Or are you thinking that all that Chinese and Russian demand

for gold is just for jewelry and trinkets.

I have a very nice Tower for sale in Paris if your interested ?

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 13:34 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

For example "the biggest market in the world isn't a country at all but a space." as in "the Internet Space." breaking into that market is only for the biggest of the big...and I think a big reason Europe is in deep doo-doo is that they have no presence in this area "where better, faster, cheaper" is the only way. Interesting those who post on this bulletin board here are already working in this space.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 13:16 | Link to Comment williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Very nice summary/APAC currency prognostication.

The only thing you left out is the Indonesian rupiah.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 15:01 | Link to Comment Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

Biggest bill I've seen is from Zimbabwe. They got my vote for the winner!!

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 16:04 | Link to Comment pashley1411
pashley1411's picture

Zimbabwei just got a head start, but we're number 1!

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 15:17 | Link to Comment Tango in the Blight
Tango in the Blight's picture

I'm a quadrillionaire with a net worth of ZIM$ 1,500,000,000,000,000.-

You can't become one in any other currency. YET!

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 14:39 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

rupiahs are to rope what hopia is to hope...Don't hang on too long... it might go broke.

Short and sweet is more in line with poking a rupiah out on the line. 

In a currency pot pourrie... rupiah curry should be something special. 

I'm ready for some good chutney and spiced, round grope-fruit, while you all mope about what is the best horse that doesnt end up as lasagne.  

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 04:21 | Link to Comment Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

You should avoid being wrong, by going long the dong.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 17:14 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

There are winners in a currency war?  Now there's a concept.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 17:57 | Link to Comment The_Euro_Sucks
The_Euro_Sucks's picture

Sure there are winners in a currency war, like the globally accepted MONEY to extinguish debt based currency. Its  called gold. I agree its stupid to suggest other currencies and ignore the obvious. Made me rate this piece with a 1.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 23:22 | Link to Comment Popo
Popo's picture

Thailand and Malaysia are export economies. Rising currencies may well be in store for them, but the knock on effect to exports will be disastrous -- particularly when they export to Europe, the US and Japan primarily.

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