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Poor GDP Sinks Euro

Marc To Market's picture




 

After trending gently higher for the first half of the week, the euro has been sold to new three week lows in response to the disappointing Q4 GDP figures. The GDP figures are of course backward looking and more recent data, such as the PMI figures and German factory orders suggest the regional economy is stabilizing here in early Q1.

There is a middle step to go from the GDP figures to the euro and that is the interest rate channel.  There has been some speculation that the passive tightening of the euro area financial conditions (including the shrinking of the ECB's balance sheet) and the strength of the euro would prompt the ECB to cut the refi rate later in Q1.  The poor GDP readings bolster such expectations and this can be seen in short-term interest rates.  The March Euribor futures contract is now implying 0.24% rate, having matched the lowest rate since Jan 23, or before the early repayment of LTRO I was announced.

 

Another way to see this is in the US-German 2-year interest rate differential, which continues to track the euro-dollar exchange rate.    Recall the sequence of events.  In early Dec 12, the US was offering about 32 bp more than Germany on 2-year obligations. By late January, the US was at a  2 bp discount.  However, this month it has been trending back toward the US and today, at 8 bp, the US premium is the largest since mid-Jan.  

The euro's drop today indicates the downside correction to the euro began earlier this month is not complete.  A break of $1.3310 signals a potentially quick move toward $1.3270.    Sterling's slide has been extended and it briefly dipped below $1.55 for the first time since August.  The unwinding of long euro-sterling positions is helping sterling steady against the greenback.

The day of disappointment actually began in Asia, where Japan reported a 0.1% contraction in Q4 GDP.  The consensus had called for a small increase.  It is the third consecutive quarterly contraction.  Exports, which fell for seven months through Dec was an obvious drag and business investment was also a drag.  The BOJ concluded its two day meeting, leaving policy unchanged.  It assessment was tweaked higher as it recognized that the "economy appears to have stopped weakening".   The yen is largely sidelined today as the dollar continues to consoldiate within Monday's range.

Fro the first time in more than a week, a Japanese official cited specific dollar-yen rates.  Iwata, who is thought to be vying for the BOJ governor position, suggested the JPY95 area was appropriate.  He opined that a correction of the yen's strength is vital to achieving the 2% inflation target and was sympathetic to changing the BOJ charter.  He has also been an advocate of foreign bond purchases.  While his comments may play well in Japan, they probably are not helpful in securing international standing, which was also a criteria cited by senior government officials. 

Some press reports are playing up comments by the Riksbank governor yesterday that seemed to accept the krona's strength and suggesting Sweden entering the "currency war" on the other side.  This seems to be an exaggeration. First, this is essentially what Weidmann and Draghi have said about the euro.  It is near long-term averages.  That means that the current rate is acceptable.  Second, about 7 months ago when the euro was at $1.20, the US did not complain about the dollar's strength. 

In fact, outside of one Fed official expressing some misgivings about what Japanese officials were saying about the yen, and Treasury Secretary designate Lew endorses of a strong dollar policy, the US has been as usual quiet about the exchange rate.   Easing monetary policy when one's inflation is low and the output gap is large is not a shot in currency war.

The euro zone area GDP contacted by 0.6% in Q4.  The market expected a 0.4% contraction.   Most countries, including Germany, France and Italy's contractions were more than expected.  Canada looks to be fastest growing in the G7 at the end of last year.  A combination of construction spending, retail sales, trade figures and the latest inventory data suggest that the contraction in Q4 US GDP may be revised to show a small uptick.  The revision is due Feb 28.

 

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Thu, 02/14/2013 - 09:11 | 3242667 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture
Strip Clubs and Bars Suffer With Banking Job Cuts

 

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/strip-clubs-bars-london-banking-085121696....

 

They obviously need moar Bailouts to 'stimulate' the ....mmm...economy.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 09:21 | 3242694 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

gotta support the girls!

no kidding... I'm watching all these "asian dating" adds on zerohedge... off which I have no clue why they keep on showing those to me...

BUT DAMN I FEEL ASIAN BOOB HUNGRY RIGHT NOW!!

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 08:55 | 3242630 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

The Euro completed wave 3 up almost two weeks ago.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/euro-daily-falls-sharply/

 

Wave 3 down is underway.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 11:58 | 3243176 tango
tango's picture

Not sure the trend is long enough to tell if the wave has actually completed or if this is a glitch in yet another wild ride.   I don't see validity for the completion but what do I know?

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 09:05 | 3242644 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Wave 3 - best wave. LOL

There's also a shooting star on the Weekly EURUSD charts - if it closes at current levels or lower, it might signal a major trend reversal.

Gread Depression here we come. Thank you, Bernanke.

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 00:42 | 3245478 Orly
Orly's picture

There is no shooting star.  That must happen in an uptrend.

What you have is a gravestone doji reversal pattern.  In this case, it is bullish.

:D

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 08:50 | 3242627 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Italy is in BIG BIG trouble............

 

I have been saying this for over a year now............

Its Diesel (work) consumption is tanking.

 

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/italy/gdp-growth-annual

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 10:24 | 3242850 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

not only has the USA had a collapse in fuel consumption in this truly amazing collapse...we've also had a collapse in the amount of garbage that is collected and the amount of mail volume. this has never happened before in US financial history...and i found the idea of simply "issuing all citizens a stipend" a rather interesting way of "getting around the whatever it is." sounds crazy...but less and less so should prices suddenly collapse. if you look at a "gold/real estate ratio" you can really see just how epic the price fall has been to date.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 11:53 | 3243154 tango
tango's picture

Systems as you suggest are untenable after a collapse - too much chaos, too little time, no planning, knowledge or longterm thinking.  DC excels in stop gap measures which this will be.   What will happen is what Dr. Paul has stated (and we found in Russia after the collapse) - competing currencies (state currencies?) will vie until one or two become dominant OR the powers that wannabe force the use of a single currency as happpend in Russia. 

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 08:46 | 3242623 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Very good article. I do agree on the 1.3270 levels - as it is a .618 fib from a recent bottom. Trendline currently runs around 1.3320-30 - if breached, the aforementioned fib will be reached.

We'll see what happens when New York opens.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 08:36 | 3242612 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Probably "too far out there" but to me there is a point where the United States why want to announce a return to "gold convertibility"...not a return to a gold standard per se but something to put confidence in cash money itself which is fast devolving down to a "yield-less" asset.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 11:44 | 3243121 tango
tango's picture

I think you are correct.   Other nations are buying gold like there's no tomorrow and with the collapse of the dollar there may be no tomorrow.  While this catastrophe would undoubtedly be celebrated on ZH, their grins will fade when they realize that the result is poverty, starvation and an epic decline in living standards.  Depending on the amount of gold a nation has and the trust they earn from others, a new confidence could be found.  But that's only if fiscal longterm problems were fixed and I see zero evidence that will happen.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 08:34 | 3242610 The Reich
The Reich's picture

What are you ßinking about...?

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 08:34 | 3242609 falak pema
falak pema's picture

euro  zone will be in extreme turbulence in 2013/ 2014...

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 11:10 | 3243002 Fuh Querada
Fuh Querada's picture

Open a FOREX account and start making MEGAPROFITS.  NOW!!

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