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Welcome To The New Cold War

Asia Confidential's picture




 

Make no mistake: America and China are on a collision course and the battleground is Asia. The China-Japan dispute has little to do with a small group of islands in the South China Sea. It's about a new world power, China, wanting to assert its authority in Asia. And it's about the U.S being threatened by China's increasing power and wanting to contain it. That's what makes the current dispute so dangerous. Even if the fight dies down, the battle for dominance in Asia between the U.S. and China will continue.

 For investors, the implications from this are not only the potential for increased trade disputes between the U.S and China. But also, the likelihood of rising friction between Asian countries themselves. In fact, we're already seeing it as these countries are being forced to side with either America or China. Intra-Asian trade will be impacted too. Welcome to the new Cold War.

Asia is the new battleground

I have an abiding love for history. I put it down to a combination of great high school history teacher and a realisation that if you don't understand history, you can't possibly understand the present or the future. Anyhow, I got thinking about how we've been lucky to have lived through a remarkably peaceful period since the fall of communism in 1989.

The fall spurred much self-congratulation about how liberal democracies had won the day and communism was dead for good. Francis Fukuyama's 1992 bestseller, The End of History, reflected this sentiment:

"What we may be witnessing is not only the end of the Cold War, or the passing of a particular period of post-war history, but the end of history as such: that is, the end point of mankind's ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government."

The book was not only silly in theory but totally ignored the rise of communist China too.

Now some of you may say that we haven't lived through a peaceful period since 1989 at all. Two wars in Iraq, a war in Afghanistan, a terrorist attack on the U.S., ongoing bloodshed in Palestine, to name but a few of the fights since that time.

Not to belittle these conflicts in any way, but they were relatively small fry compared to what happened prior to 1989. The latest Iraqi war and occupation is estimated to have had around 172,000 casualties. The September 11 terrorist attacks had casualties numbering 9,000 including 3,000 dead.

These were not total wars though. The number of countries involved was far greater in World Wars I and II, as well as the Cold War. The casualties also dwarfed those of recent conflicts. For instance, casualties during World War I numbered 22.5 million. It's hard for many people to fathom these numbers and the destruction involved.

Which brings me to the present day. I can't help but thinking that we're entering a new period of rising tensions between countries. As well as a Cold War in Asia. The 2008 financial crisis and subsequent economic downturn, as well as rising food inflation, have led to the fall of several, once-considered impregnable governments in the Middle East. The installation of new governments in their place is proving problematic.

By contrast, increasing tensions in Asia have nothing to do with the economic downturn or food inflation. Instead, they've come about from the rise of China as a new world power. China is staking its claims as a world power both economically and politically, focusing particularly on its own neighbourhood, Asia. And other nations are increasingly concerned about it.

China-Japan dispute: appearances deceive 

The current conflict between China and Japan is supposedly over five tiny, uninhabited islands, Senkaku or Diaoyu islands, in the South China Sea. And the abundant natural gas in the area. China has been challenging Japan's claims over the Senkaku islands and its control of them. The situation has become increasingly tense and in late January there was almost a shoot-out. Japan claims that China beamed fire control radar at a destroyer owned by the Japanese Navy - a first step to potentially firing a missile at it.

The dangers of the conflict lay with politicians on all sides wanting to prove their military credentials by appearing tougher than the one another, with little regard for the consequences. This kind of behaviour is similar to that which almost led to catastrophic consequences during the Cuban missile crisis in 1962.

Stepping back from the minutiae of the dispute though, it's ultimately about the changing balance of power in Asia. China has already become an economic power, now being the world's second largest economy. It's Asia's largest trading partner in both exports and imports. It's seeking the political power to match its economic might. And it's aggressively building military capabilities to achieve this goal.

Japan, on the other hand, is angry over China's economic prowess and wary of its political ambitions in the region. Japan has watched its share of imports in all markets shrink while China's share has rapidly expanded. Japanese companies have been forced to shift the production of manufactured goods to China and other low-cost countries, which has contributed to the country's depressed economic activity. The current dispute is effectively Japan's way of saying: "enough is enough".

Of course, Japan's principle ally in Asia is America. The U.S. has publicly remained neutral over the disputed islands, but privately there's little doubt that it's siding with Japan.

The backdrop is that the U.S. has historically been Asia's most influential political power but the dynamics are changing with the rise of China. That's why official American foreign policy has been to "pivot" towards Asia and away from area such as the Middle East. China believes that this pivot is about the U.S. containing its power and it's right. Of course, America denies this but logic dictates otherwise.

In a previous note, I suggested that it was no coincidence that The New York Times ran arguably anti-China stories U.S. election. I love the Times and some of the stories, such as Premier Wen's family secret fortune, were fantastic pieces of journalism. But I've got no doubt that the sources feeding these anti-China articles were mostly from the Obama administration. It's part of a toughened stance towards China.

Asia is splintering 

Thus far, the U.S. has played its hand well in Asia. It's strengthened relationships with Vietnam and the Philippines by subtly backing their own claims against China to territories in the South China Seas. It's also strengthened military alliances with South Korea, Singapore, Indonesia and Australia. And it's managed to become a key ally to Myanmar, a country with immense potential that is starting to open up to the world, and where China arguably has blundered.

Asia itself has splintered. Countries are being forced to ally with the U.S. or China. "You're either with us or against us" in military speak. This trend is most apparent at the 10-member, Association of South-East Asian Nations (Asean). Asean has practically stopped functioning because of the bickering over China's territorial claims in the South China Sea.

Last year, Cambodia chaired the association and as an ally to China, pressed its friend's territorial claims. Vietnam and the Philippines strongly objected, and the various arguments became public at Asean meetings. With Brunei now chairing the association, it's hoped these arguments will die down.

But I wouldn't count on it. Asean is pushing for a collective agreement over China's claims while China itself only wants discussions and/or agreements with the countries directly impacted by the claims. In short, expect more diplomatic posturing and possibly open hostility.

Why it matters for investors 

There are several implications from this new Cold War. In any war, cold or otherwise, trade usually suffers. You're likely to see the U.S. and China introduce new trade tariffs and sanctions between the two countries. The U.S. will also start pressuring Asian allies to align their investment policies with it. From China's side, you're already seeing work to move away from the dollar as the world's reserve currency.

Of course, the elephant in the room is China being the second-largest holder of U.S. government debt. For economic reasons, China's already started to reduce its holdings due to reduced foreign currency reserve growth (which we've talked about recently).

The implications of this new war spread much further than just the U.S.-China relationship though. Intra-Asian trade will be impacted too. Consider that exports within Asia account for around 56% of total Asian exports. In other words, Asia matters more than the rest of the world. Consider also that intra-Asia trade grew 3.5x over the past decade, or a 15% Cagr. Tidy.

Total intra-Asia trade

Hat tip: Joshua Saldanha.

China's export trade share in Asia though has fallen from 51% in 2002 to 44% now. It's become more export dependent on the rest of the world and less on Asia.

On the other hand, Asean has benefited greatly from intra-Asian trade. As a percentage of total exports, Asia accounts for 69% of Asean exports, up from 60% a decade ago. It's not hard to see that Asean could be a big loser from increased trade frictions.

Source: http://asiaconf.com

 

 

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Sun, 02/17/2013 - 11:48 | 3251130 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Too much capital has been invested in China and the consumer market is too big to pass on so global corporations will maintain the status quo or work the situation to their advantage.  The State Department's raison d'etre is to serve the interests of their masters; global corporations.  Fear mongering and posturing are only circus acts used to maintain their control.  The US military's primary purpose is that of an armed security detail paid for by US citizens to keep the oil, poppies, food, minerals and finished goods moving around the planet unmolested.  The American Empire will fall when the dollar collapses, just as the British Empire fell when the pound collapsed.  The global elites will just find another Nation State to sponge off of.

Sat, 02/16/2013 - 02:22 | 3248924 Element
Element's picture

And its self-pollution will never be a limiting factor on economic growth either.

There's too many suppositions in all the "rise of China" stuff, and too much scare-mongering. We have seen all this stuff before about China in the 1950s and 1960s. Yes, the country may seem very belligerent at times (just ask Vietnam what militaristic domineering arseholes the Chinese are), and their local TPTB love to put forwards this notion of the seething uncontrollable masses going batshit crazy over foreigners. But those in power in Beijing are engineers, scientists and technocrats, and not actually stupid enough to want to start a major war with the west that it absolutely will not win - nor survive if it seriously tries to win.

This does not mean Washington won't push them into some sort of warfare though, but Russia is a strategic ally of China and that is very serious business, so I really don't see Washington or the Pentagon itself actually wanting to go to war with both simultaneously. For that is what a real conflict implies, and would result in. Making predictions is tough, especially about the future.

Limited conventional war? Possible. But a real war with actual broad strategic implications, I don't see it.

Protracted cold-war? Possible. But the Chinese are not building 30,000 nukes, they decided a long time ago not to go down that insane path.
 
Plus their associated nuclear 'triad' of strategic strike and counterstrike platforms are fairly minimalist in number for a great power.

So this does not suggest any disposition to be looking for a confrontation on the Geo-strategic level, and they do not have the naval and air mobility, numbers and quality for more than a regional conventional battle.

But I'm sure the western military-industrial estate will spare no efforts or expense in the coming years creating a fake 'yellow-peril' bogie-man, with the proposition of a 'missile-gap', a strike-fighter gap, a laser gap and a moon-walk gap, etc, and of proxy-conflicts in Africa and South America. But that will all be baloney to scare-up some defense spending, or delay scheduled major cuts.

I suspect Japan is the wild-card here, because they are going to become mighty insecure and pissed off on current trends, and much more vocal and heavily armed, and more likely to draw a line in the sand (which you may have noticed is what they have essentially just done).

Sat, 02/16/2013 - 02:16 | 3248859 TheObsoleteMan
TheObsoleteMan's picture

"The fall of Communism in 1989?" Really? I live less than 180 miles from a communist country {Cuba}, and I see my own country becoming more socialist by the day. The author would have been more correct to have stated the fall of the Warsaw Pact and Soviet Union. in any event, push will come to shove over Taiwan or Korea, not Japan. We should be arming the Taiwanese with tactical nukes NOW. Cambodia is nothing more than a vassal state of China. They matter little, other than as a naval base for China. Militarily, China is at a big disadvantage. It is Surrounded on all sides by hostiles. The US Deputy Secretary of Defense was in Vietnam just last summer, and get this: the Vietnamese ask the US to return to Cam Rahn Bay! The Philippines also wants the US back at Subic. I wouldn't be surprised if they were working on it now. The two wild cards in any Asian war would be Russia and India.India is China's largest export rival in Asia, and would have the most to gain from a Chinese defeat. How would Russia respond to an armed conflict would be vital. At least keeping them neutral would be a top priority in any planning. China is dependent on Russian oil for it's war efforts, so an Russian oil embargo coupled with a naval blockade could defeat them. My money is on the US and it's allies in this one. One other thing the author didn't mention: Who was it that took China from a backward third world country, and made it what it is today? The western elites did. They gave them membership in the WTO, moved most of our manufacturing over there, all the fund managers have been promoting investments in China for years now. All of the money that would have stayed here, went over there to build them up. Maybe this is the path they see for getting us out of our malaise. Nothing like a world war when it comes to goosing the economy, especially if you don't have to make good on all of that debt to the country you just brought down.

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 22:16 | 3248535 7AM Watcher
7AM Watcher's picture

This is what i think as if any of you cocksuckers care.  China does not give a shit about the the trillion in treasuries it holds because they are not fucking stupid and know they are not worth a shit.  ie., if you owe the bank a $1000 and cannot pay, you have a problem but if you owe the bank 1 trillion, the bank has a problem.  China knows our debt is shit so what do they do.  They do exactly what the US did in the 1930's  with Germany when we were an export nation.  China quits buying our worthless debt, (seversl years ago)  then depeg their currency from the US.  Youre a fucking idiot if you say China neecds us because of exports.  They will do what we did before.  Raise the standard of living of their own people, like we did in the 1930's you fucking moron.  You see, they have the money, they have the factories and they have so many fucking people that the 350 million people we have in our nation, most of which are young, old or so fucking dumb that, we are just a rouding error compared to them.  If you have half a fucking brain left after getting your dicked sucked by that stupid bitch this morning you should be asking yourself, why dont they invade.  The answer is that they are invading.  They are using our own fucking money to buy us out.  Read a fucking book assholes, I would suggest "how an economy grows and why it collapses" by Peter Schiff.  He wrote it for asshole starbucks spuge masters like you in cartoon form.  Now fucking grow up.  and Fuck off.  Im so fucking tired of you pill popping, low fat eating mutherfuckers now Im going to the bar to let your wife blow me.  Have a nice night with your right hand assholes.....  Fightclub.....Bitchez

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 22:10 | 3248515 AurorusBorealus
AurorusBorealus's picture

In what way has the post coldwar period been exceptionally peaceful?  What does Francis Fukuyama's dreadful neocon garbage have to do with anything?  The cold war has nothing to do with the current situation between the U.S. and China.  The Cold War was a bipolar global game between the U.S. and Russia.  The world is no longer bipolar: the rise of China and Europe's failing efforts to liberate itself from US dollar hegemony reveal this.  There is a balance of power in the world today much more akin to that which existed prior to WWI: that is a system of treaties and alliances, with the U.S. (playing a role similar to England in 1910) on the one hand and the Russi-Sino alliance on the other (which is a very unstable alliance because the principals are not natural allies- just as Russia was not a natural ally of England in 1910).

On the whole, this is a very poor article riddled with cliches, simplistic thinking, and an understanding of history that seems to extend back all the way to 1980.  Zerohedge can do better for international commentary than this.

Sat, 02/16/2013 - 02:32 | 3248935 Setarcos
Setarcos's picture

Agreed.

The author claims to love studying history, but this is pure BS; "I got thinking about how we've been lucky to have lived through a remarkably peaceful period since the fall of communism in 1989."

He vastly understates deaths in Iraq.

When Madeleine Albright was asked if the deaths of 500,000 Iraqi children could be justified, she said it was "worth it".

Asia Confidential does not have a clue.  During his illusion of a "peaceful period" millions of Iraqis were killed, injured and displaced ... and there was the war against Yugoslavia, Afghanistan of course, Panama, etc. and Libya and Syria ... all accumulating millions of dead, injured and displaced people on a scale increasing towards the head counts of  so-called WWs 1 & 2.

Throughout the period  AC believes to be "a remarkably peaceful period", in fact WW3 - a truly global WORLD war - has been being waged since the collapse of the Soviet Union and millions have died because of the guns and bombs of the Washington Empire.

BTW AC it is NOT "America" on a collision course with China.  It is the PTB in Washington, who are situated in a very small part of America, which stretches from Argentina to Canada.

Get your head around that fact AC!  Then you just might realize that your world-view is very narrow and distorted.

BTW.  Do you believe what your gubbermint has told you about 9/11?

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 22:06 | 3248499 CTG_Sweden
CTG_Sweden's picture

I thought that the Chinese would try influence domestic politics more in Burma than they have. And now it seems as if they have scaled down their ambitions in Burma drastically.

 

I doubt that American and European political leaders and financiers, media owners and important lobby groups consider Chinese political and economical power as an urgent threat. They have a more solid domestic political base in pipeline than the Chinese leaders have and Chinese leaders and financiers have no ideology or religion they share and take seriously. The combined European and North American customs union which is in pipeline will also create a larger market than the Chinese market for at least the next 30-40 years.

 

I reckon that it is more likely that China will be controlled by about the same guys as North America and Europe in the future than a scenario in which China becomes a serious global challenger as regards economical, political and military power. The people who control politics in North America and Europe know what they are doing and they know how they want to transform their societies in order to consolidate their power. I can´t see that there is any particular, well defined Chinese political force which is now consolidating its long-term political power. I see that there are certain individuals who get richer. But I can´t see how that is linked to any kind of consolidation of long-term political power which is strongly associated with anything like religion, ethnicity or ideology which defines a true, long-term political force. The Chinese don´t seem to take communism and socialism seriously.

 

 

Sat, 02/16/2013 - 02:23 | 3248928 Joe A
Joe A's picture

I wonder what the benefits are for Europe of a free trade agreement with the US considering that the Euro is too high, Americans build things that break apart after three years and the fact that the US will then dump their hormone infested meat and GMO poison on the European market. The EC tried to push through ACTA and that was shut down by the EP (that finally did something useful for a change). Then the EC tried it through the backdoor by making some free trade agreement with Canada. The EP did not fall for that one either. Euirope should be aware of some 'free trade' agreement with the US. Europe, remember the Alamo, in this case being the MBS induced financial crisis of 2008.

Sat, 02/16/2013 - 05:37 | 3249032 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

The Europeans design their products to break after two years.  Any item with the CE marking is designed to be obsolete after the two-year gurantee expires.  They teach their engineers how to design obsolescence into a product.

(which is not to say, the US, Asians,etc, do it any differently.  As Ananonymous would say, ...)

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 23:19 | 3248652 chindit13
chindit13's picture

China did not scale down.  They were scaled down.

China bought the old leadership of Burma, but as the old guard aged, the next generation started to get fearful that Burma was merely the on-deck Tibet.  The young leadership began to reach out...to India, the UK and the US.  At the same time, the population of Burma grew to resent China and Chinese people, who had taken over virtually every resource the country has, and used Burma as the dumping ground for all the products other countries already banned (like poison dog food, baby formula and the like).  The joke in Burma---a country where per capita income is stil about US$300/year---whenever anything broke or tasted bad was "China-made".  There were even incidences of attacks against Chinese in Burma.  The bloom was definitely off the rose that the old guard had tried to shove in the face of the populace.

Accelerating the decline of Chinese influence was an incident at a hydroelectric dam project at a site in northeast Burma that holds great cultural significance to the ethnic Kachin people.  China had already taken over virtually all of the resources in Kachin State, such as gold and silver mining, jade mining, teak harvesting, and other industrial metal and mineral mining.  Their techniques devastated the environment, poisoning the water and leaving the landscaped scarred.  The Chinese, working with the old guard government who had sold them concessions, had tens of thousands of Kachin forcefully moved with little or no compensation for the loss of their homes, farms and businesses.

Seeking new sources of power, the Chinese began buying rights (from the unelected junta) to dam rivers and construct hydroelectric plants.  The largest was to be at Myitsone, where two rivers join to form the Ayeyarwaddy.  Access was restricted, fifteen thousand villagers, whose land would eventually be submerged by a giant reservoir, were told to get lost.  China brought in 20,000 Chinese laborers to do the work.  All of the power was to go to China.

The Kachin said enough was enough.  They have a military wing called the KIA, and the KIA began to blow up Chinese people to get them off Kachin land.  The government of China demanded the Burmese military crush the guerilla uprising.  The Burmese pleaded poverty, so China funded the counter-offensive and supplied guns, artillery---even poison shells.  China also demanded $600 million in compensation.  A war started.  It continues to this day.  As I wrote in another post a few days ago, it is genocide.  The Burmese military, aided and encouraged by China, is now engaged in ethnic cleansing as horrible as anything seen in 1990s Yugoslavia.

Why does the supposedly newly "democratic" Burmese government go along with the Chinese demands?  Kachin State's resources represent about one half of all of Burma's wealth.  The other half (approximately) is in or near Yakhine (aka Rakhine, Arakan) State in the west, where both on shore and offshore gas and oil---also largely controlled by China---are the resources.  Kachin State is populated largely by the eponymous people, the Kachin.  Yakhine also has a large number of non majority Burman ethnic groups (Yakhine, Rohingya).  That the Kachin people (at least the KIA, as non-combatants are the targets of the Chinese-backed Burmese military) have been holding their own against the military is not going unnoticed, and is beginning to embolden other ethnic groups who have always resented the heavy-handed central junta as well as the Chinese overlords.  If Kachin State ends up in the hands of the Kachin people, it is possible other ethnic groups will take control of the resources within their lands, leaving the central "democratic" government without revenues and the Chinese empty handed.

That is the battle.  The horrific slaughter in Kachin State gets little press, partly because Burma's newest "friends" are trying to encourage continued "democratic progress" (and this partly to draw a line on China's ambitions of annexing the entire country and getting direct Indian Ocean access), and also because the world is conflict weary.  The Kachin area is also difficult to access, as there is but a single flight a day in a small aircraft, there are no passable roads, and the sole rail line is usually under construction.  Access from China's Yunnan Province is much easier, as the roads are better, built to carry out whatever the Chinese can steal from the Kachin people.

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 21:59 | 3248481 nah
nah's picture

why cant we just let brittan figure all this shit out for us

Sat, 02/16/2013 - 05:28 | 3249027 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

do you mean brittany or britain?

 

Britain is figuring stuff out for us already.  Remember, of the 5 Rothschild sons, the London son was the more sucessful.

Brittany couldnT find her way out of a wet paper bag.

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 21:33 | 3248402 jharry
jharry's picture

A cold, warm, or hot war between China and US is not in the cards, man. A Chinese friend who owns an import business told me that they're too corrupt for that. They just want to make money and live a decent life.

You guys need to lighten up, for real. If you keep talking this sh-t, you might cause something uncool to happen.  Besides, they use play money, too.

El Dude

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 20:56 | 3248347 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Yep - the communists have outsmarted everyone.  Communism wins. 

 

This is just sport for the the US.  The US needs an enemy - Russia is a pile of goo now, so China is the next best deal.

Sat, 02/16/2013 - 01:43 | 3248870 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

They are communists like we are communists.

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 20:07 | 3248215 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

"Wah! Wah! They illuminated us with their fire control radar!" 

The Japanese are a bunch of babies.  Back in the day (during the real Cold War), real men went out and went looking for the Reds to light them up so they could figure out how to defeat their systems, and they did not cry about it.

Sat, 02/16/2013 - 05:21 | 3249025 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

+1 for effort.

 

The Japs ainT crying.  The information about this incident was leaked at the "correct" time.  Information about incidents during Cold War I were also leaked at opportune times.

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 19:49 | 3248180 Sparkey
Sparkey's picture

No more "Cold" wars I think, and Russia out Chessed us, plead broke, can't play anymore, can anyone lend me car fare to get home? went home and let American Hubris bankrupt the country.

What is to happen now? who really knows, yet one thing is certain, China will never again be a vassel state, no more Opium Wars or other humiliations, at least not in the near future, remember; no one can win, many parties can take it all down with them!

Sat, 02/16/2013 - 06:12 | 3249052 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

Cold War II is already long underway.  Where have you been?

This time, China is a Great Game player and no longer a Great Game pawn.

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 19:46 | 3248175 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

will any of this 'cold war' BS influence the Billions of embezzled money flooding into the USA to be laundered clean through RE?

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 19:22 | 3248102 RebelandSolo
RebelandSolo's picture

 

Veni, Vidi, Vici

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 18:35 | 3247999 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

China has got the ultimate weapon.

Thermonuclear T-bills.

Drop those puppies and who hurts worse?

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 17:57 | 3247895 Joe A
Joe A's picture

Divide and conquer, America's favorite geopolitical game.

Sat, 02/16/2013 - 06:07 | 3249050 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

The US military commanders are able to draw on the vast experience of millenia of rivalries:

In The Art of War, Sun Tzu writes:

…the art of using troops is this: When ten to the enemy's one, surround him; When five times his strength, attack him; If double his strength, divide him…

 

 

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 16:52 | 3247692 DoneThis2Long
DoneThis2Long's picture

"Make no mistake: America and China are on a collision course"

It has been all along, the only question was "how long before the buffoons would recognize and admit it"?

What was done to this nation in the name of 'open trade' is nothing short of treason by all of the crooks in Washington who allowed it to happen, and facilitated it, and the corporate chieftains.

Only a fool would believe that china would be happy making hair pins and broom sticks for America's consumption, as well as carry our piss-bucket..

And all the rhetoric that we'd defend Taiwan .... how, other than using the nuke? The chain supply would be so stretched 7-8k miles, while they are home. Besides, our foreign policies of the last 2-3 decades, but especially of the last 4, has made it painfully clear America has no allies in the world, but lots of foes more than glad to lend a foot in times of need. I guess a recent poll revealed 92% of pakies  ...ugh ... "love us to death" (light on love, heavy on death). We sure made that one work out well, and we are paying them quite nicely to boot.

God ..... they fucked this country up .... utterly disgusting. Hell .... remember the comments made by Moochelle during the 1st "erection" "they were proud to be Americans for the 1st time" (paraphrasing). If that was not a clue of what the bastard had in mind and heart for America(ns) then ... we deserve all the shafting we are getting ....SOB.

Sat, 02/16/2013 - 05:59 | 3249021 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

.

And all the rhetoric that we'd defend Taiwan .... how, other than using the nuke?

  • Do you have something against using nukes?
  • China has the largest population.  If they want to keep it that way, then they need to keep their hands off of Taiwan.
  • otoh, if China wishes to cull its herd...

T_US_PTB are willing to use nuclear weapons in the event of an attack on an ally, and they make no secret about it.  They post things like this on their websites (nuke-posture.pdf):

The United States is therefore not prepared at the present time to adopt a universal policy that deterring nuclear attack is the sole purpose of nuclear weapons,

IOW, they are willing to use nukes.  Nukes are not just a deterrent: they exist in order to be used when another superpower gets out of line.

China had better think twice about which dire straits they cross.

So back to your question:

Q: how, other than using the nuke?

A: No.

 

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 18:33 | 3247993 monad
monad's picture

Its always been Canadian Bacon.

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 16:23 | 3247573 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Oh, but 'americanism' prevails.

China turning to 'americanism' wont change the fact that 'american' chinese will leave in a pre theft economy.

For them, it will be as it was for the Founding Fathers in 1776: the theft job has to be done if they want to accomplish the transformation to 'americanism'

The idea that an 'american' world is a pacified world is so preposterous only 'americans' can believe it.

'Americans' in China will have to find their Indians. There is no 'american' miracle if you do not have those handy Indians.

So who to play the Indians for the 'americans' in China?

Seems that only other 'americans',those who live in a post theft economy can fit the part.

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 16:56 | 3247699 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

AnAnonymous excreted this text:

'Americans' in China will have to find their Indians. There is no 'american' miracle if you do not have those handy Indians.

So who to play the Indians for the 'americans' in China?

As if you didn't know.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2277907/Horrifying-image-Tibetan...

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 17:28 | 3247800 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

The Chinese have brought the blessings of racism, land and resource theft, cultural genocide and outright massacre through murder and starvation to those benighted Tibetans.  It's really a blessing when Marxists do these things.  It's "liberating." 

One good thing is it will take the Chinese many, many generations to adapt to those high altitudes.  Until then most will die younger and the women who don't go to lower altitude when pregnant will be at high risk. 

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 16:26 | 3247597 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

The Indians can be the Indians.

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 16:15 | 3247532 Vlad Tepid
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Forget all that, it's the currency wars that are going tobe the opening round in any Asian Cold War.

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 15:47 | 3247413 billsykes
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China can so out manipulate the stats, far more than the USA does/can. Plus they are coming from a point of low wages and cheap shit- you cannot go anywhere in the world without a Chinese middleman selling cheap shit or a indigenous seller selling made in china shit.  

To stop them you would have to bomb all their factories- how big is china? Huge. Having that unbombable factory card in your back pocket is what won the ww2 for the 'mericans, now that they don't have that card, they have nothing and this is why they will lose any type of conventional war. 

The only way they could possibly stay relevant would be to shut down the borders, tariff everything, pull the military out of everywhere and basically pull a Germany protectionist game less the EURO and then still watch china pass them by and hope they blow up themselves.

Which is unlikely - as they already and willingly executed/starved out over 110m of their own citizens.... how many citizens does the US have to cull to keep them in power? Hence the internal spying and buildup for that end. DUH. They are not prepping for a world war, it’s an internal culling. You can never lock down the population and get them into an external war at the same time- it never happens

 

(would like examples if I am remiss on this point)   

 

 

 

Sun, 02/17/2013 - 11:36 | 3251184 Lucius Corneliu...
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Nazi Germany did.

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 15:29 | 3247321 williambanzai7
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The US and China are engaged in a delicate dance alternating between a virtuous Ponzi cycle and existential rivalry.

If there is turmoil in China caused by a serious economic hiccup, all bets are off. There are still plenty of macho military types on both sides. All eyes are on those Islands because it is the easiest place for China to poke us in the eye in front of all our Asian friends.

There is a reason why the US strategic establishment has now shifted it's focus to APAC. Iran is not perceived as an arch nemesis. Iran is a convenient boogey monster for the neocons. Europe's problems are not considered an existential threat to the US either. It is a Bilderberg garage project.

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 18:41 | 3248012 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Bilderberg garage project.

Stop it...yer killin me.

I'm seeing rough plywood, old lawnmower parts,  baling wire and duct tape.

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 15:03 | 3247202 NoWayJose
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It's interesting to look back and think that the US defeated Russia in the Cold War.  After all, didn't the Cold War bankrupt Russia and force the breakup of the Soviet block?  But the escalated spending by the US toward the end of the Cold War marked the abandonment of any attempts to balance the budget, and that was led to a $16 trillion national debt that can never be repaid.  Meanwhile, Russia is in much better financial shape from exporting commodities, and in many ways it can be considered the winner of the Cold War.  China has no need for a Cold War, as it has the ability to defeat the US any time it wants to simply by selling its treasury holdings and re-valujing its currency so that its products double in price in the US.  The economic collapse in the US would force either concessions or a big reduction in the US military.  The Chinese are wisely selling their treasuries to Bernanke, and instead are buying oil in Canada (CNOOC), iron ore in Brazil, mines in Australia, etc.  They won't need to fight for these, they will just buy them.  China has already won the economic war. 

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 15:15 | 3247249 TPTB_r_TBTF
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China had better get very involved in a Cold War, or the US will take the World's resources "peacefully".

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 14:20 | 3247087 sitenine
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Asia is the battleground? Really? Maybe you've heard of Iran or the financial apocalypse happening right now in Europe? South American countries are devaluing and implementing price controls and imploding at a record pace, you know? Asia... yeah right. Aside from Japan (which is a proxy of the West), gold is being imported at record fucking levels - but apparently that means nothing to you. This isn't even a good try. Your bias is palpable, to say the least.

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 15:07 | 3247213 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Prescription:  hot cup of chamomile tea and a good nap.

Asia is where all those billions upon billions of people are who are disputing space (islands, and the like).

Money can buy oil, but humans generally fight over land, property, places.  Sure, we fight over resources, but it boils down to real estate.

The Pacific and orbital space are real estate.

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 16:12 | 3247523 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Correct.  Battleground earth. Some things never change.

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 15:01 | 3247181 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

.

Asia is the battleground? Really? Maybe you've heard of Iran or the financial apocalypse happening right now in Europe?

I've heard that Iran is located in Asia and

i heard that Europe is an asian peninsula.

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 14:40 | 3247128 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

Objectively, I do not think one can regard the basic thesis of this article as being a bias that is mistaken in its overall assesment. The Western world was able to force Asia to assimilate things like steam engines and debt engines, or, basically, the breakthroughs in technology and social control that the Western world pioneered. Japan sprinted to catch up. China resisted, but then finally came around, and is now running flat out to overtake the West at its own games.

The overall situation of half the world's people living in what we loosely refer to as Asia, and almost a sixth living in China, which is a few times more than North America, means their potential to overtake the USA is quite clear! China was an advanced civilization long before Europe. Paradoxically, it was that success, turning into stultifying bureaucracy, that stopped China from developing itself further, instead of getting more and more deeply stuck into its ruts, UNTIL THE WESTERN POWERS FORCED CHINA TO ADAPT! ... Now that China has adapted to adopt Western technologies and social organization ideas, the potential there is manifesting!

Of course, in my view that means that China is becoming more insane than we are, which is the primary way that they are overtaking us, by outdoing what we have previously done!

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 23:27 | 3248670 DoChenRollingBearing
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+ 1

I agree that if we (USA) stay sane, we have relatively to fear from China.

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 14:15 | 3247076 falak pema
falak pema's picture

US divide and rule..neither the US nor the West have any solution to provide these countries. Its just militarist and geo strategic.

But does China have a positive role relative to its neighbours? 

One issue is making a consumerist model of China a success. That will dynamise implication of smaller countries as lead player, now taking over from Japan. 

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 20:36 | 3248296 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"your industrial heartland belong to us." USA ain't poor either. And as long as the region can all agree "the North Koreans are a bunch of nut jobs" then i think a lot of this can continued to be fought "on the battlespace known as the market place." this site is obviously the only one on the planet that actually understands "the power that need not fire a shot." and in this battle there can be many winners...as the author rightfully points out with ASEAN. i see this region more as a Team of Rivals which...while certainly having the potential for a "real war" also has the potential to continue to be "a raging economic battle" with all sorts of "appearances" made to make it all seem nicey-nice...but beneath the veneer a raging cauldron of interests, ideologies, intrigues...and outright "i" ness for everyone. My advice: "while there is no 'i' in team...there is a me."

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 19:23 | 3248105 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

Tibet was THRILLED to have them as neighbors...

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 14:14 | 3247073 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

Don't forget Battleground Africa, the war of Western banking Empire vs. Eastern banking Empire over resources is raging.  Globalism, FTMFW...

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 17:04 | 3247731 DoChenRollingBearing
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Right, a big + 1 

It's not just Asia, nor Asia + Africa.  China is everywhere, including Peru...

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 18:35 | 3247996 monad
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including LA

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