This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Chart of the Week: Gold

thetechnicaltake's picture




 

Gold is in a bull market; it is at support. Despite the questionable fundamental picture, I believe this represents a good buying opportunity as price sits at support.

cow.2.17.13.gold from ARL Advisers, LLC on Vimeo.

TacticalBeta offers a FREE Newsletter:

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 02/19/2013 - 09:59 | 3255774 BlueCheeseBandit
BlueCheeseBandit's picture

This guy is an idiot.

Questionable fundamentals? That's how you know someone doesn't know what's going on in the world.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 09:24 | 3255683 Confundido
Confundido's picture

The 8:20am take down has begun in full fashion....Why would we need this if gold was truly in a bear market?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 07:54 | 3255554 mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

You know the top is in when an MMA announcer does weekly chart analysis.

 

sell

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:06 | 3255773 riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

I will know the top is in when idiots like you are not saying you know the top is in when your barber/shoeshine/cab driver/mma announcer does weekly chart analysis. Considering I have heard that since 1000. 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 06:55 | 3255537 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Gold's technicals don't matter because its fundamentals are so good.  If you used technicals in the 60's and 70's, during the london gold pool, you would have missed out on gold hitting full valuation in the 1980's.  Just BTFD and wait.  I think you are crazy if you are not buying here.  Markets move on easy money and easy credit.  Gold also trades on bad debt and bad money.  We have all four here, and a nice juicy dip.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 08:45 | 3255625 midtowng
midtowng's picture

I was thinking about buying here too, but I'm a little gun-shy and am willing to give up a few dollars and not try to pick the exact bottom. I'm waiting for an uptrend.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 08:11 | 3255567 CPL
CPL's picture

Buying by technicals is now outdated as an investment model.  If Buffet keeps doing it...well, we'll be seeing Warret Buffet eating cat food with a stick in a tent city in a couple of years if he's got the luck to live so long to see it happen.

 

Sell side on the Oracle of Omaha.  Besides, if you trade with fiat you'll get exactly what it is worth once this has run it's course.  A whole lot of nothing.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 06:48 | 3255535 falak pema
falak pema's picture

gold is being down graded by the bank lobby; its ALL over the WEB; Socgen has come down hard on gold as a hedge against fiat, arguing that the 2013 asset market is now all bullish worldwide.

So they predict it breaks 1600 and goes lower. 

Choose your side : what does 2013 have in store for stocks and bonds...as BOJ now pushes the QE button bigtime.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 05:01 | 3255479 No Euros please...
No Euros please we're British's picture

On the subject of gold, the Fed just had their gold audited;

http://www.treasury.gov/about/organizational-structure/ig/Audit%20Reports%20and%20Testimonies/OIG13031.pdf

In the report they clearly state that the Federal Reserve Banks hold 13,452,810.532 fine troy ounces, that's just over 418 tonnes. Did they lose some?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 08:12 | 3255569 CPL
CPL's picture

Bullshit, as if they let anyone in that vault to count tungsten bars wrapped in foil.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 08:04 | 3255563 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

So, when over 130MILLION folks show up with their claim checks for a Toz, just what did the Audit accomplish?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 05:41 | 3255486 Central Wanker
Central Wanker's picture

I don' think they've lost any. 

http://www.fms.treas.gov/gold/current.html

NY Fed holds 418 tonnes of Treasury gold. The rest is stored in other locations. I believe that the audit report was about the gold stored by NY Fed in New York.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 09:12 | 3255668 DosZap
DosZap's picture

NY Fed holds 418 tonnes of Treasury gold. The rest is stored in other locations. I believe that the audit report was about the gold stored by NY Fed in New York.

 

Then West Point reserves and Ft Knox, had better a WAD.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 03:54 | 3255422 steveo77
steveo77's picture

Did you know that we were heavily dosed with radioactive uranium and plutonium when Fukushima had all those explosions? Funny how the EPA stopped publishing data too.

But I know how to mine the EPA web site for data, and I found simple proof that tens of tons of uranium and plutonium drifted over the US. And "they" did feel it was important to warn the sheeple, the warning could have been as simple as stay out of the rain for a month.

Proof is here

http://nukeprofessional.blogspot.com/p/uranium-aerosolized-into-atmosphere.html

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 03:15 | 3255388 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Gold priced in USD does look bearish and has for some time.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/gold-weekly-breaks-below-1600-gold-bugs...

 

Gold bugs index has been falling too - near term support level ready to be tested.

 

While US Dollar continues to climb, downward pressure on gold.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 03:29 | 3255395 Middle_Finger_Market
Middle_Finger_Market's picture

If you are simply trading gold you just have to play the game. It is clear spot prices are heavily manipulated by forces with unlimited capital...remember the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Otherwise start preparing your wealth accordingly, time is of the essence. There is a storm coming and not many are prepared. 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 03:41 | 3255406 Gavrikon
Gavrikon's picture

Wise words, MFM.  Betting on the daily manipulations will drain you of all ability to stack phyical.  Do only that, and time will take care of the rest.  As for the manipulators?  Stack rope and bullets, and get ready to swarm WS with the real 'Occupiers."  

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 02:23 | 3255324 Lordflin
Lordflin's picture

Jim Sinclair seems to be of the opinion that those forces suppressing gold will jump to the Lon side some time in the next month. He likens the moment to 1979. I have a high regard for mr. Sinclair, who has been following the pm market a good deal longer than I have... However...

In 1979 the US did not have the debt issue it has now. Were gold and silver allowed to mark to market in US dollars I suspect the world would rapidly dump the 12 trillion in USD held as monetary reserve... This would cause a wipe out in dollar denominated paper assets... IMO...

I think war with China a more likely event... Don't get me wrong... I hold my wealth in gold and silver bullion (and to a less extent, junior miners)... And in my farm (which I would claim to own were I not still paying rent to the government). I just don't think it likely we will wake up anytime soon to a sudden upward trend in spot prices.

I would love to be wrong on this one...

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 05:34 | 3255497 All Risk No Reward
All Risk No Reward's picture

Why would people giving out 30 year loans at 3% and who hold trillions in dollar denominated debt and cash wipe themselves out by inflating the buck away?

That is the question one must answer before reality can be properly envisioned.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 09:05 | 3255659 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Because they make more out of thin air.  Losses are public while loan origination fees, home inspections, realtor commissions, mortgage insurance are all profits in the present.  By creating loans, they create another worthless piece of paper they can trade like baseball cards. Review the events of circa 2005 when banks were loaning $250,000 to borrowers where the only documentation of the ability to pay was a photo of an illegal standing in front of his fifteen year old truck and an X in the signature block for his name.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 03:05 | 3258660 All Risk No Reward
All Risk No Reward's picture

I don't understand your math.  They own trillions in debt and trillions in cash and they are going to blow that all up for origination fees?  They don't get much of the rest of the fees you mention and people like Realtors don't control monetary policy.

Now is the time to be very, very rigorous and question all one's assumptions.

Do you **really** believe they are lending out $600 for 30 years at 3% for loan origination fees?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 02:45 | 3255363 Lordflin
Lordflin's picture

Lon = long... I hate iPads...

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 02:34 | 3255343 walküre
walküre's picture

few years ago one ounce silver was worth 1 layer (6 month old)

currently I can ask one ounce silver for 5 layers

as the Depression progresses, the silverman will want to see the equivalent of 10 or maybe 20 layers.

that's inflation.

take a guess how I'm storing the value from the proceeds of my chicken sales

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 02:18 | 3255314 jballz
jballz's picture

 

Gold is about to collapse. Long term may still work out but buying this dip will be the most painful experience of your life.

Not trolling, just doing God's work, I know you true believers won't listen but don't say I didn't warn you.

Run for the hills, gold bitchez.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 02:31 | 3255336 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

If you wanna play this game at least do it right:

you can't eat your gold, bitchez

SELL SELL SELL SELL!

disclosure: long boating accidents & future options on boating accidents

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 06:25 | 3255518 new game
new game's picture

jball

although, i am contrarian, i have growing concern you may be correct.

i have got silver. but a six fold increase since 250 is a warning signal.

it can and will be manipulated...

it must be held down for the full faith of the dollar.

so who wins this epic battle.

fed has won, well, till...

???

stay tuned, china, russia, india to name a few have a say

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 01:10 | 3255195 fuu
fuu's picture

Very annoying filter sweep at the start of the video, that was as far as I got.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 02:22 | 3255322 walküre
walküre's picture

sucks that the vid starts each time I've posted a reply

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 01:39 | 3255248 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

Huh. Just came in for the comments. WTF cares what JPM says gold is worth? On paper? Get real.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 01:07 | 3255189 tempo
tempo's picture

Central bankers want gold prices lower to be consistent with their zirp. All commodities, except oil, are consolidating waiting for a move higher. Producers will shutin production and delay expansion without higher prices, so its just a matter of time. With zirp, I think bonds are very risky, not gold.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 02:21 | 3255320 walküre
walküre's picture

CBs want gold prices low, low, low so they can convert more, more, more.

What part of that does not make sense? If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck and LOOKS like a duck .. well ? what is it?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 01:01 | 3255178 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Questionable fundamental picture?

Gold is at an all time high in Yen and people are nervous about gold?

Fuck an 'a people!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 02:27 | 3255329 walküre
walküre's picture

Putin is buying gold en masse. China is loading up. Americans are supposed to give a shit how much of the worthless paper can buy them a solid ounce of gold on a daily basis? Fuck, most Americans are too broke to give a shit anyway. As for the lucky few who have employment, have a few bucks at the end of the month to save and can convert to gold or silver, they are the lucky few who are preparing for the FUTURE. Their kids and grandkids will give a shit that someone in their ancestry had a clue.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 00:21 | 3255056 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Everybody haggles about the price of an airline ticket but does anybody ask about a parachute? No they don't .

It's the same with the current situation. Everybody asks and is concerned with the price of gold but most are still oblivious to the breakdown that will occur. When that happens, price is no longer the issue. The issue will be whether you converted some fiat into hard metal.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 00:51 | 3255152 CH1
CH1's picture

Fiat for physical: Trade of the decade!

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 23:47 | 3254946 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

Let them run stops past this major support; then load.  Just use old-fashioned 'Kentucky windage' to tell you where.

They will run the stops because the stops are there to run.

They will also 'be run' anyway if we get a correction in the S&P.

That said, I have a position in SLV which I thought ran its support 'throw in the towel' stops on Friday.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 00:40 | 3255116 Mugatu
Mugatu's picture

This guy's video is full of more pregnant pauses that a politician on a lie detector.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 23:58 | 3254976 thetechnicaltake
thetechnicaltake's picture

Guidelines...

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 23:40 | 3254908 FreeMktFisherMN
FreeMktFisherMN's picture

I think there will be acceleration in the decoupling of the paper and phyzz markets. People who are 'awake' a la ZHers about things like Zionism, fiat fractional reserve CBs, and other Orwellian surveillance state developments bought gold for a hedge against big time breakdown, and are not selling. I don't think there are many weak hands of those who have the actual phyzz. Gresham's Law or whatever, they ain't giving it up. And even if the manipulators tank GLD, etc., oil and other commodities will accompany it, so purchasing power stays stable if not increases when pricing things in gold. This along with miners' margin problems and geopolitical tensions in places like SA and inflationary effects on their energy costs point to constricted supply. Quite conversely to the 'shake out the weak hands' ambitions of TPTB, these people are embracing the chance to buy the dips and accumulate more real wealth. 

Apmex and Provident and Gainesville-and pretty much all of 'em-go psycho on the smackdowns. And ebay premiums ain't going down, either. 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 02:31 | 3255339 tango
tango's picture

FreeMkt - Most folks (including Zhers) buy PMs for the wrong reason.  They constantly compare current price to past price like it's an investment when in fact, it is simply a hedge.  It's possible to "lose money" with PMs (think of the buyers of silver at #49).  If the dollar collapses and gold became a non-defacto currency, things would be so chaotic that no one would give a hoot.   You can use all your end of the world novels for heat.  

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 02:16 | 3255312 jballz
jballz's picture

 

People who are "awake" about things like Zionism...

 

are broke as fuck as a rule and don't have enough shekels between them all to move the gold market four bucks.

get a fuckin lifiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiife....... you can't win that game, just turns you into a bitter fucking lemming.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 02:50 | 3255372 tango
tango's picture

jballz - Love it...."broke as fuck". Some folks here 24/7 constantly blab about being in the know, blah blah with a Youtube video as "proof".  There is no investment strategy beyond "I work the land and don't invest in the Joo market".  And some ARE bitter lemmings raving against tv, restaurants, sports, movies, Apple (lol), every politician, writer, teacher in America, the market, you name it - they hate it.  I find it so odd that powerful cabals aiming for world domination let's the details of their negarious plans be made known to guys who sit around in their boxers all day.   

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 02:19 | 3255316 walküre
walküre's picture

+1 for using the term "shekels"

do they come in paper?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 09:38 | 3255713 augustusgloop
augustusgloop's picture

Shekel = .4 oz  silver

 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 02:35 | 3255347 jballz
jballz's picture

 

fuck if I know, probably yeah.

 

and just so we're clear... I don't like Jews, don't support them if I can avoid it, and don't have any Jewish friends. But I am pretty sure that's because I'm an asshole. 

Would be great if I had that wrong, but...

thanks for the +1 anyway. You want to be penpals?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 02:56 | 3255374 walküre
walküre's picture

an asshole penpal? fantastic. sign me up!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 00:57 | 3255156 Dieselclam
Dieselclam's picture

For me, gold charts mean nothing because the stock market lunacy, investor panic, QE inflation, oil markets and id Another is to be believed, the BIS are what are going to determine the price of gold. Doubtful they will let it fall below price of production.
IM

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 00:59 | 3255172 FreeMktFisherMN
FreeMktFisherMN's picture

I know it gets said a lot when people talk about the bullish fundamentals for gold, but it's because it's true: nothing has changed. 

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 20:12 | 3254484 TeddyBear
TeddyBear's picture

 

 

"Gold is in a bull market"

NO

GLD

200 day MA

Nuff said.

Buy 1200 to 700.00

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 09:10 | 3255667 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Once again this is an example why traders lose their shirt constantly - always using the rear view mirror to drive forward.

Technical analysis is for gamblers.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!