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Chart of the Week: Gold

Submitted by thetechnicaltake on 02/18/2013 19:24 -0400

Gold is in a bull market; it is at support. Despite the questionable fundamental picture, I believe this represents a good buying opportunity as price sits at support.

cow.2.17.13.gold from ARL Advisers, LLC on Vimeo.

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Tue, 02/19/2013 - 02:34 | 3255346 MeelionDollerBogus

NO. 200 dma = nonsense useless metric

This is how you chart gold:

2013 silver price model 277 week ROC from gold price projection

goldpricemodel 2013 roc 52-week

goldpricemodel 2013 projection

2013 gold silver scatterplot 01

2013 gold silver scatterplot 02

2013 goldpricemodel 277 week ROC 04 price mapping

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 03:01 | 3255381 tango

The problem with your chart (at least the silver one) is its selectivity. Gold was at a 25-1 ratio with silver ONLY for a day or two in 2011. You can't extrapolate a future price based on that reading. I am VERY hesitant to put much faith in future charts when we've all seen such charts (super high prices) for the past five years from all the "experts".

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 05:26 | 3258720 MeelionDollerBogus

It's a lot harder to explain how to use time series to get multiple slopes of useful benefit from the scatterplot. That's why I have a big one, http://flic.kr/p/b3wmPP , and I make smaller ones.

I'm not an "expert"

I'm someone using public math with public data & I've been able to plot out trends to end of year from mid-year & beginning of year before (and by trend I mean a list of all the prices turned to chart form as presented here).

I leave the math open so everyone else can do it too. I'd much prefer everyone did this all the time so we are fooled much less often.

The real question (in the gold chart) is WHY are the prices repeating so frequently? This is multi-year now.

Also the often cited gold/silver ratio has no value or purpose whatsoever and isn't actually used by me. It predicts nothing & actually describes little. At the very least physical barter terms would be good but given fiat dollar costing, shipping & inflation over time as one holds (for those that do) I can't get a g/s ratio (spot) to make sense compared to a real barter (actual bullion gold for actual bullion silver). That would be a nice chart indeed, however.

What my scatterplots show is the multiplier: an ETF equivalent. In the same way UGL allegedly is a 2x gold bull ETF, the slope of 2.0 on the scatterplot shows where silver acts as a 2.0 cash ETF for gold (spot).

The source is http://www.fxhistoricaldata.com/download/XAGUSD?t=day and I've also used http://freestockcharts.com in the past.

The nice thing about http://www.fxhistoricaldata.com/download/XAUUSD?t=day is changing the time from 'day' to 'hour' and changing either triplet-label to any currency (chf, usd, cad, aud, xau, xag) to get the pairing you want.

My favourite but very large charge is built from http://www.fxhistoricaldata.com/download/XAUUSD?t=hour and believe me that's a 10 year by the hour data-set.

Back in the day Adrian Douglas put up this article: https://marketforceanalysis.com/article/latest_article_02511.html

this is what I did with the scatterplot, making it a time-series and not just a cluster rising away from a prior trend: I turned it into LOTS of trend-lines, so that one particular average slope was a good fit for every up-swing in silver &gold together, and another particular slope was average good fit ONLY for when they both declined together. It looked like zig-zags. I marked them on my scatterplots with green for inclining together, red for declining together (ignoring the silly days when they'd go in opposite directions; it's visible but not shaping the trend).

This is visible in my video http://youtu.be/Wgv8c9b5ck8

See also my video http://youtu.be/kpl-s6j3M8c

Editing video is annoying & youtube loves to flag for copyright so I pretty much stick to slides now.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 00:29 | 3255075 Confundido

Gold is neither in a bull nor a bear market. Gold is in a manipulated market and when markets are manipulated technicals do not imply what we think they imply. There is only fundamentals being repressed. If gold was truly in a bear market, there would not be a need to take it down every fucking day at 8:20am ET or at 10:30am ET (when the 8:20am push fails), it would have already unequivocally colapsed by now and above all, you would not see either central banks or retail purchasing the physical.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 02:23 | 3255325 fourchan