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Paul Versus Joe

Bruce Krasting's picture




 

 

pkandjoe

 

Paul Krugman (PK) and Joe Scarborough (JS) have been having an on-air feud of late. The issue is debt, spending and inflation . The two have been going at each other on their blogs: Here, Here, Here and Here.

The bottom line is that PK thinks debt is no problem at all; nothing should be done with spending, and absolutely nothing should be done with America's entitlement programs. JS, sees it differently. He points to the country's $60T of unfunded liabilities, another decade of trillion dollar deficits and the very real chance that high inflation is the outcome.

 

Atlantic magazine (Egad!) has jumped into this fray with both feet (Link). The folks at Atlantic love PK, and they too see no problems at all. The Mag did its best to take JS down with his silly concerns.

 

atlantic

 

In defense of its position, The Atlantic offered up the following chart on the 10-year TIPS implied forecast for inflation:

 

10YearBreakevens3-thumb-615x354-113766

 

The Atlantic had this to say about the market's inflation outlook:

 

Core PCE inflation averaged 1.9 percent over this period, while 10-year breakevens, which tell us market expectations of future inflation, averaged 2.18 percent.

 

Yes, inflation expectations averaged 2.18%, but the only relevant question is - What are those expectations today?" The TIPS spread is now pricing in 2.56% inflation (15% above the ten-year average) The folks at Atlantic looked at the TIPS info and concluded:

 

If markets feared future inflation in the face of mounting debt, they sure had a funny way of showing it.

 

I look at the TIPS chart and come away with a different take than the Atlantic. What I see isn't so "funny". We are approaching the highs for the past decade. The past few years have seen a steady increase in expectations. If you drew a trend line for the past two years, it would point you to an upside breakout for inflation expectations.

 

What is the main factor pushing up inflation expectations? It's the Fed, of course. The stated policy of Bernanke to increase inflation. The Fed is currently at Full Speed with money creation. There is no end in sight for QE and ZIRP. It's not just the US that is pushing the inflation button. Japan and England have an oar in this water. China is on a tear. I think the EU is not far away from its own QE experiment. Yet the Atlantic concludes the opposite.

 

The Atlantic should know that it's foolish to Fight the Fed. The Fed is going to win; higher inflation is a sure thing. The TIPS market is the best indication of this. I think it's the Atlantic that could use a lesson on markets and the economy.

 

nofuture

 

 

 

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Tue, 02/19/2013 - 01:30 | 3255236 willwork4food
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Anyone notice there's a lot of new trolls in lately? Must be the economy..

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:49 | 3254303 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Years and years ago when Joe was a congressman - he seemed like a decent fellow.  He sold his soul for TV and the money.  Sad.

Paul Krugman was born a lying douchebag propagandist liar. If there is an after life, Krugman deserves to burn in hell.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:13 | 3254362 DJ Happy Ending
DJ Happy Ending's picture

I don't think Krugman knows the difference.

He is a True Believer and won't burn in hell, unlike the psychopaths running the show.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:24 | 3254235 DJ Happy Ending
DJ Happy Ending's picture

I blame the negroes.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:28 | 3254383 which way weste...
which way western man's picture

I clearly blame those who call themselves "jews" and live and judge accordingly.

What a plague these fucks are.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:18 | 3254371 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

You should blame Negrodamus.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:31 | 3254398 Whalley World
Whalley World's picture

That should be NegrOdamus, don't be disrespectful of the destroyer in cheif

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:08 | 3254198 mantrid
mantrid's picture

common, bond markets no longer care about inflation, they are used merely as a vehicle to grab collateral to keep overleveraged shadow-banking-ponzi afloat, it's no longer important if stuff is indexed by some BLS bullshit

bond are only showing desperation for collateral, that's all

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:06 | 3254189 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

The little girl with the balloon has one advantage over the Baby Boomers. She will be working and earning some type of salary at the prevailing wage of the day- long after the Boomers have retired and are trying to protect their assets from hyperinflation and all of the deflating asset bubbles. Hyperinflation and bursting bubbles destroys assets and savings faster than wages.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 20:10 | 3254476 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Jokes on her then. There ain't gonna be no wages.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:04 | 3254185 max2205
max2205's picture

The fed might not win but we'll never be told

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 17:57 | 3254170 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"Joe Scarborough flunks economics"

"The Atlantic" is a liberal east coast rag of old monied yuppies.

Anyone who questions the high priest of the church of the holy sepulcher of good intentions (Economic Science) and their tragic belief in government doing good things for society (Camelot) is clearly possessed, stupid, or uneducated.

In their vein of ecclesiastical thought presented as science:  numbers don't matter, math is fungible, consequences avoidable, and feeling good about trying is success.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:56 | 3254448 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

+55 kajillion. Cocksucking lefturds who will be running the streets looking for food and water when SHTF.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 23:24 | 3254861 booboo
booboo's picture

let me explain the mindset of the run of the mill statist. I have a very dear older friend, worked on the hill for a very well known senator during the 70's, his wife was a personal secretary of another senator, immerse in the D.C. Culture,they are both retired, he still stay busy hob nobbing the local political scene. He knows my thoughts on this issue and I finally pushed him over dinner regarding his inability to connect the dots over the out of control debt with destroying future generations ability to live a life free of the dead weight of this burden effecting the rest of their life. The blatant transfer of wealth taking place at the direction of our government. The un- sustainability for this to continue. His response, "I disagree"

He refuses simple math and thinks the government will continue unabated shiting freebies on the world without any changes in "promises"

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 20:57 | 3254545 philipat
philipat's picture

And won't get any sympathy from the fucktard FSA they so desperstely care about.....

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 17:54 | 3254164 Encroaching Darkness
Encroaching Darkness's picture

An argument between the utterly clueless and the one-eyed man with astigmatism. PK knows no inflation, and JS has finally found an acorn, after ages of blind-piggishness.

 

If this is the state of "learned" economic debate in the MSM, we need even more beans, bullets and bullion!

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 17:50 | 3254135 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Superb graffito, the little girl and the balloon and 'No Future'

'No Future' was a favoured phrase of the Sex Pistols, as Bruce likely remembers, in their punk mega-hit 'God Save the Queen' from the late 1970s:

« ... The Fascist Machine ... No Future, No Future, No Future For YOU ! »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BaHhxRGYjFA

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:46 | 3254293 Freddie
Freddie's picture

John Lydon and the rest of The Sex Pistols were mainly libertarians while the bandwagon jumping Clash were middle class lefties.  Both groups emulated The Ramones.   Fantastic lyrics in all their songs considering Lydon was only about 18 and very working class poor.  He also had a better grasp of economics than douche bag Paul Krugman.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 23:02 | 3254783 Midas
Midas's picture

IMHO Lydon's lyrics got even better after the Pistols.  I hope you have heard the Pistols lately, they can still crank it out.

 

Same Old Story

 

Some people got more kicks than halfpence
Crying for attention, like cracks in the pavement
All of this pointed, like perfect TV
When you're sowing the wind, you reap the whirlwind

Your flexible nature, serving no purpose
Like a terrible artist, you're using no shadow
The king of this castle, is pulling new shades
Gilding the lilies, and all of them fakes

Who gets the mansions? We get the ruins
Same old story
Who gets the mansions? We get the ruins
Same old story, same old story

Typical tragic, small house and small street
Narrow the outlook, small minded complete
The emperor's new clothes, get clearer and clearer
Dictate to the fingers, that tighten the trigger

Who gets the mansions? We get the ruins
Same old story
Who gets the mansions? We get the ruins
Same old story, same old story, same old story

And the king of this castle is pulling new shapes
Life is a poison, it begins at home
Pride is a trinket, security blanket
Tangle the spiders on the webs that we weave

Who gets the mansions?
Same old story
We get the ruins

Who gets the mansions? We get the ruins
Same old story
Who gets the mansions? We get the ruins
Same old story

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:03 | 3254181 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Girl hangs on to a bubble, although it warns in screaming letters obout the outcome. A great symbol of the sheeple investor.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:56 | 3254316 notbot
notbot's picture

I don't follow Joe, but the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Paul Krugman is the most dangerous economist in the world (mostly b/c he's the most widely read...I'm not sure he's any different from most salt-water economists).

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 23:18 | 3254841 bjfish
bjfish's picture

what is a salt-water economist ??

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 01:07 | 3255190 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

different than fresh water econs...ie Chicago/Austrian

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:35 | 3254414 Whalley World
Whalley World's picture

Dangerous is right, I almost had a heart attack reading his b.s. posts. The guy is funnier than Dave Chappelle.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 20:59 | 3254538 philipat
philipat's picture

Tom Keene missed an opportunity last Friday to ask guest Krugman the hard questions:

 

How much debt is too much?

Many economists believe that after debt/GDP exceeds 80%, further debt no longer stimulates?

What if you are wrong and The US becomes like Japan?

What is the point of more QE when the inflow stacks up on TBTF Balance sheets, earning them 2-3%pa with no risk and with a broken transmission mechanism?

 

Come back, Lauren, we need you........

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 07:56 | 3255556 DavidC
DavidC's picture

"Come back, Lauren, we need you........"

Amen to that phillipat. They're still showing CA on RT, but such a shame that Lauren and Demetri aren't doing any more.

DavidC

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:08 | 3254664 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Tom Keene works for that little Naploean Bloomberg and you want him to ask a hard question???????

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 01:28 | 3255230 Manic by Proxy
Manic by Proxy's picture

Tom Keene's hard question is "Does my douchey polka-dot bow tie go better with my striped douchey shirt or with my douchey Bloomberg-funded neoliberal lifestyle wherein I can be paid to actually do nothing."

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:03 | 3254331 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Scarborough is your typical social justice Republican which means he thinks he is a capitalist but doesn’t have a clue what a capitalist is.

I would say he is fascist light. 

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 23:43 | 3254917 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Ooops

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 23:42 | 3254916 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

If break Paul Krugman face, create employment opportunism for triage nurse, doctor, orderly, receptionist, and if bleed excessive, custodial staff. In turn, doctor, nurse, orderly, receptionist and hope custodial staff is spend wages, make local entrepreneur happy with purchase of light weight jogging attire and large flat panel display. Economy booms, so why is not break every bone of Paul Krugman for cure of recession in America. Ponder for thought.

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