Some Treasury Yield Context

Before everyone gets too excited about the "great rotation" that still remains a ghost, keep in mind that the entire curve is still >1 standard deviation below its historical mean (from 1990 in this case).

There is a long way to go before any meaningful rotation actually takes place, and even if the fed continues to monetize, we should at least see a mean reversion before getting too excited.

Also, keep an eye on the 10s30s, this may be a subtle inflation smoke signal, even as the fed has tried to grind yields lower & lower.

Comments

[LawsofPhysics]

Please, there is no "market" in treasuries now, everyone knows that the Fed is backstopping everything in the western world.  Nothing will change until the supply lines break and the world goes to war.  In the meantime, the captial and resource mis-allocation and mal-investment continutes, all paper promises continue to burn, and living standards will continue to deteriorate.

Hedge accordingly.