The Wal-Mart Indicator: the US is in a Stagflationary Collapse

Phoenix Capital Research's picture


In the second half of 2012, the media, Federal Reserve, and various Governmental economic bean counters engaged in what we call Great Global Rigging of 2012 in an effort to make the US economy look better to help the Obama campaign re-election bid.


Now that the election is over, the ugly economic realities have begun to creep out from where they were swept under the rug. And while the official economic data is bad (a negative GDP in the fourth quarter of 2012), it’s nothing compared to what real-time indicators are showing:


Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) had the worst sales start to a month in seven years as payroll-tax increases hit shoppers already battling a slow economy, according to internal e-mails obtained by Bloomberg News.


“In case you haven’t seen a sales report these days, February MTD sales are a total disaster,” Jerry Murray, Wal- Mart’s vice president of finance and logistics, said in a Feb. 12 e-mail to other executives, referring to month-to-date sales. “The worst start to a month I have seen in my ~7 years with the company.”


Wal-Mart and discounters such as Family Dollar Stores Inc (FDO). are bracing for a rise in the payroll tax to take a bigger bite from the paychecks of shoppers already dealing with elevated unemployment. The world’s largest retailer’s struggles come after executives expected a strong start to February because of the Super Bowl, milder weather and paycheck cycles, according to the minutes of a Feb. 1 officers meeting Bloomberg obtained.


Here’s Wal-Mart, the single largest retailer in the US, reporting that it just had the single worst start to any month in over seven years. Indeed, the company just missed revenues expectations as families adjust to a “reduced paycheck and increased gas prices.”


The increased gas prices is most important. Inflation is already seeping into the system in a big way. Indeed, if you account for real inflation (not the Fed’s phony CPI measure), the US economy contracted by over 1% last quarter.


Make no mistake, we are heading into a stagflationary collapse. The time to prepare is NOW before stocks “get it.”


We offer several FREE Special Reports designed to investors navigate the risks in the market today. They include:


Preparing Your Portfolio For Obama’s Economic Nightmare


What Europe’s Crisis Means For You and Your Savings


How to Protect Yourself From Inflation


And last but not least…


Bullion 101: Everything You Need to Know About Investing in Gold and Silver Bullion…


You can pick up free copies of all of the above at:




Phoenix Capital Research




Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
the grateful unemployed's picture

yes and those bad boys of bond investment TIPs are going to look pretty good. problem with this stagflationary collapse is that nominal rates won't go much higher, (that's because teh FED fights something by fighting the PERCEPTION of that thing, and the perception of Stagflation is that there will be higher interest rates,  just as the perception of inflation is in the CPI, and while they have that genie in the bottle asset prices have a long ways to go- down) but Bernank will allow CPI to run ahead of comparable yields. and if you're waiting for the housing market to bottom so you can buy, you may not live that long. [time to get out the 1970's playbook- yes gold was good]

Notarocketscientist's picture

Why did GDP go below 0 in spite of trillions of dollars of stimulus at zirp?

spinone's picture

You mean that europe is going to collapse, right?  Thats what you said yesterday. Or is it both, I'm confused.

digitlman's picture







Buy my newsletter!