On the Global Numbers - CIA Edition

The CIA has some new 2011/2012 numbers for the world's economy. These numbers are as "good" as the countries who post the individual data, so it's safe to be suspect. That said, I found them interesting.

There's 7B of us. I love the CIA's precise estimate.

Only 47% of the population is in the workforce. 28% of the population is under 14 years of age, 8% is older than 65.

Of the 3.3 potential workers, fully 9.2% are unemployed.

I was surprised to see that the global unemployment rate had risen in 2012 by .8%. That's a big change, It comes to an additional 26m people. Overall, some 300m people are looking for work. The numbers are big, the direction is bad. There is a case to be made about political stability with this many people not working.

The estimate for the USA is that 13m people are now unemployed. The US share of world unemployment is 4.3%, while US population is 4.4%. In other words, the US is right in the middle of the pack on unemployment. Not bad for the leading industrial economy........

2012 was a so-so year for global growth, down YoY and down significantly from 2010.

The CIA measures total GDP, it came to a whopping $83T in 2012. The US share is 19%.

Global GDP rose $2.2T in 2012. How did that happen? Easy, more debt, money and inflation. The stock of money rose $6.1T, about 3Xs the increase in GDP. Given this, why is gold falling?

Where did all the new money come from? Debt, of course. Domestic and cross border debt marched ever higher:

Domestic debt rose by $5.1T, while cross bordered indebtedness rose $5.4T. Total debt is up by $10.5T while GDP rose only $2.2T. From this I conclude that it takes $1 of debt to produce a measly 20 cents of growth. Who was it that said that debt was an efficient stimulus for growth? There is no evidence of that in the CIA numbers.

The world is running a budget deficit. The government deficits increased by 3.8% (Vs. GDP of 3.3%) and by $2.7T (Vs. $2.2T of real growth). On balance, for each $1 increase in government debt, GDP rose by 80 cents.

Total government debt as a share of GDP is now at 65%.

The large deficits are happening even though global tax rates are high. There is not much blood to be had from the taxpayer's stone:

Inflation was tame in 2012. With all that money sloshing around, one would think that the inflation numbers have to be headed higher.

The CIA data for 2012 is a mixed bag. There is no crisis at the moment, but there are troubling signs:

- Unemployment is dangerously high, social problems will be the result.

-Global growth is occurring as a result of ever higher debt loads, and a rapidly expanding money supply. Total debt is rising much faster than economic output. Every year we get more leveraged. The "efficiency" of debt is waning.

-Inflation is not a big issue today, but there is every reason to believe that this can't be sustained.

Spy versus Spy

Comments

[Freddie]

The tragedy is war is a business the banksters invest in.  Someone posted info on the Japan Russia War back in 1904 or so.  Japan struggled to get investors to back them while Russia, looking more powerful, had no trouble.

When Japan showed strength, investors started backing Japan. The same thing happened with the Civil War.  It was to subjigate the south and allow northerners to take over after the war.

Thousands to millions of young men die along with civilians, animals and places are destroyed.  It is all business and bankster families.

[Dr. Sandi]

Damn, you almost make it sound like a bad thing.

[Motorhead]

Stadelheim hasn't been the same since.

[malek]

 Given this, why is gold falling?

Wrong question.
Given this, why is paper gold falling?

[Dr. Sandi]

Possibly because the markets are finally starting to compare the value of paper gold to the value of metal gold.

But then, I daydream a lot.

[dunce]

The CIA is using official employment figures provided by individual countries. A casual look at our own figures reveals that they are wildly inaccurate. Politicians whose stock in trade is lies and half truths order bureaucrat drudges to swear by their lies or put a veneer of respectability on them. Let me be clear about lying politicians, i mean that it is true about 99% of them. The rare honest politician is treated as a harmless lunatic and his voice is lost in the flood of lies. Ron Paul has been railing about the fed for generations and has always been considered a deluded kook. He may not be perfect but he sure had one thing right and stood the mocking of other politicians in all parties, the press, and our ignorant masses. rather than the elephant in the room ,until this most recent debacle, he was just the mouse in the corner.

[Stuck on Zero]

Bruse states:

Not bad for the leading industrial economy........

What?  We hardly measure up in terms of industry.  Industry moved to Asia.  We have government!

[Bruce Krasting]

Twas sarcasm....

[Dr. Sandi]

When you have to explain that you've used sarcasm, it's already too late.

Just pat them on the head and say, "There, there. It'll be alright"

[MeBizarro]

Always interesting to take a look at the FACTBOOK numbers.  Good post.

[Lordflin]

By Austrian standards we already have runaway inflation... i e the printing of money... This is an old story... What is new is automation... Replaces the work force who then have nothing with which to buy all the shiny toys produced by the robots... And for the college educated... Machines specialize in the dessemination of information... A job description for most higher level employment.... Also we have declining resources...

This will not go away... We will not grow out of it... It could produce rebellion, but I suspect the forces pushing the world towards a major conflagration are more aggressive.

Since this information is readily available and intuitively obvious, it rather makes you wonder what the endgame is, doesn't it?

I remember sometime back listening to a robotics expert, with a gleeful smile on his face, state that 'humankind was now irrelevant... Wonder if he placed himself on the top of that list... Where is a good Luddite when you need him?

[riphowardkatz]

you are an austrian luddite malthusian? wow that is some combo imagin your life is one big confusing conflict

[Big Corked Boots]

Well, I've always enjoyed Star Trek.

Turns out there's a system for that: (Ferengi need not apply)

http://www.zcommunications.org/topics/parecon/

[GMadScientist]

"Global tax rates"...I am pretty sure this is not the effective tax rate.

[GMadScientist]

"Among the companies on the Forbes Global 2000 list for 2010, U.S.-headquartered companies faced an average effective tax rate of 27.7 percent compared to a rate of 19.5 percent for their foreignheadquartered counterparts. Only five of the 59 countries in the sample had higher effective tax rates than these U.S.-headquartered companies over the 2006-2009 period: Japan (38.8 percent), Morocco (33.9 percent), Italy (29.1 percent), Indonesia (28.1 percent) and Germany (27.9 percent)."

[MeBizarro]

Exactly.  When something on the right blathers about top income tax rates, I could clear less.  What I care about (and everyone who makes a buck does too) is what their effective tax rate is on their annual income and their overall tax burden when you include all different forms of taxation. 

I would bet a decent pile of cash that the world's effective tax rate on annual income is nowhere near as high as what the FACTBOOK posts.  Ditto the corporate tax rates that the FACTBOOK publishes.

[azzhatter]

Yep, Kudblow and Company blather on about high corporate tax rates and then you see how much GE pays and Facefuck pays and you know the rate is just a scam. The oligarchy doesn't like to be bothered by taxes, that's for pissants

[GMadScientist]

All true enough, but the effective rates of small businesses are closer to those rates because they aren't well-connected with lobbyists that can get loopholes inserted for them or the occasional tax-free repatriation of foreign profits that multinationals like GE are swimming in due to globalization and playing countries against each other for favorable tax treatment.

Your average mom and pop shop doesn't use Chinese sweatshops or Dutch-Irish dual-penetration tax dodges.

[DaveyJones]

only one solution

THe CIA must attack itself

Wait, that's its job

[Dr. Sandi]

It takes lots of money to do that job. And fortunately, they have the connections to make that happen too.

[Oldwood]

There is no reason to doubt any of these numbers. But there is no reason to believe the numbers mean anything at this point. we have watching these crazy numbers for years now and so far they have proven nothing except that numbers don't matter. By my count we are officially bankrupt, but if enough people don't believe, what does it matter. We are but a bunch of nattering neighbobs of negativity as far as the deluded are concerned. I wear my badge proudly!

[the grateful un...]

pretty neat, our tax dollars at work. bob prechter says "the us exports inflation and imports deflation" and these numbers prove that. the only way we can import inflation is to become a developing country. in the post industrial age that's not impossible. america is a techological leader, and a new techology (such as the assembly line was a hundred years ago) would make us a developing nation once more. although there is a lack of vision at the top right now, that will change.

[Vooter]

"although there is a lack of vision at the top right now, that will change."

Let me guess: Because we're Americans, right? We're not only too big to fail, we're too AWESOME to fail! LOL...

[azzhatter]

I just stood up and chanted USA USA USA

[TPTB_r_TBTF]

The Disunited States will precede the European Disunion

[kaiserhoff]

Good points.  Lots of well read people (including me) underestimated the crap you can get away with when you have control over the reserve currency.  There are many alternatives to the dollar, but they remain theoretical.  Actually dealing with the EURO or the renminbi, whatever the central committee says that is this week, is a tad problematic.

[the grateful un...]

BP has held fast to the view, to his readers detriment. and you're right, the Fed is very keen about continuity, (Greenspan is miffed at Bernanke for suggesting his tenure might end, and for allowing dissension to make the headlines) and when the CC is reduced to micromanaging their currency week to week their credibility drops. BP refers to it as confidence, and the lack thereof, but its like confidence in electricity (though we are no longer all dependent on the long wire than comes into our house. barter is a form of  monetary autonomy. BP imagines a collapse, but its more of slow walk away from the centralized solution to money.) i imagine that if there is a failure of confidence, there will a competitive race to issue currency backed by gold, and small countries with less currency in circ, and large gold reserves relative to that float, might become instant financial centers, and those having the opposite problem (US for example) will take a real hit. hence the idea of the trillion dollar coin minted in a PM substitute for gold (that was really a very clever trial balloon)

[kaiserhoff]

Small countries with shared values have many advantages.  Small population/large resource countries should also so well.  Canada and Australia, in spite of their politicians, look relatively solid.

[Kayman]

Without control of our own manufacturing the nation is sunk.

[the grateful un...]

so what comes after manufacturing? they have these nanotech printers which can theoretically make anything?

[Dr. Sandi]

they have these nanotech printers which can theoretically make anything?

I just want to get my paws on one of those things. Then I'll open up shop printing nanotech printers.

Of course, they'd certainly set them up so you can't do that.

[Mike in GA]

Help the economy, order one tonight! :)

http://www.3dsystems.com/personal-3d-printers/

[TPTB_r_TBTF]

"theoretical" is the antonym of "empirical"

[Anusocracy]

So, we'll wait and see how much of the "theoretical" becomes "empirical".

Besides, printing is still bulk technology. Nanotech is the goal.

[Omen IV]

it surely is no accident that the United Nations put 7 Billion Day on the exact same day as Halloween. Perhaps they want to highlight how “scary” it is that we have 7 billion people on the planet, or perhaps they are trying to send us a message by having 7 Billion Day occur on the same day as “the festival of death”.

Today, “sustainable development” has become one of the key buzzwords that those in the radical environmental movement love to use, but most Americans have no idea that one of the key elements of “sustainable development” is population control.

So what precisely is considered to be an ideal population for the earth by those pushing “sustainable development”?

Well, of course there is much disagreement on this issue, but many are very open about the fact that they believe that the earth should only have 500 million people (or less) on it.

For example, the first of the “new 10 commandments” on the infamous Georgia Guidestones states the following….

“Maintain humanity under 500,000,000 in perpetual balance with nature.”

CNN Founder Ted Turner would go even farther….

“A total population of 250-300 million people, a 95% decline from present levels, would be ideal.”

Dave Foreman, the co-founder of Earth First, says that reducing our population down to 100 million is one of his three main goals….

“My three main goals would be to reduce human population to about 100 million worldwide, destroy the industrial infrastructure and see wilderness, with it’s full complement of species, returning throughout the world.”

Sadly, this kind of garbage is even being taught at major U.S. universities. For example, Professor of Biology at the University of Texas at Austin Eric R. Piankaonce wrote the following….

I do not bear any ill will toward people. However, I am convinced that the world, including all humanity, WOULD clearly be much better off without so many of us.

Mikhail Gorbachev thinks that reducing the global population by 90 percent would be just about right….

“We must speak more clearly about sexuality, contraception, about abortion, about values that control population, because the ecological crisis, in short, is the population crisis. Cut the population by 90% and there aren’t enough people left to do a great deal of ecological damage.”

But most of the time, the way that the global elite speak of population control is much more “politically correct”. They tend to use terms such as “sustainable development” and “reduction of fertility rates” and “quality of life” when discussing the need to reduce our population.

[wchild]

Agenda 21 Consolidation of sources, resources, articles, and implementation

http://www.un.org/esa/agenda21/natlinfo/countr/usa/natur.htm 

http://habitat.igc.org/agenda21/index.htm

http://www.jaygary.com/agenda21.shtml

http://www.rumormillnews.com/cgi-bin/archive.cgi?read=48954

http://logonnewzine.com/Expose/Expose-purchase1.html

http://www.newswithviews.com/Morrison/joyce36.htm

http://www.middletownca.com/FREEDOM21.htm

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,510937,00.html

http://www.crossroad.to/search_files/search.php?zoom_sort=0&zoom_query=agenda+21&zoom_per_page=10&zoom_and=0

http://www.freedomadvocates.org/articles/illegitimate_government/regionalism_-_the_blueprint_for_your_serfdom_20121201468/

http://www.freedomadvocates.org/articles/sustainable_development/

http://search.un.org/search?ie=utf8&site=un_org&output=xml_no_dtd&client=UN_Website_en&num=10&lr=lang_en&proxystylesheet=UN_Website_en&oe=utf8&q=agenda+21&Submit=Go

http://www.sovereignty.net/

http://www.sovereignty.net/p/sd/agenda21rpt.htm

http://agenda21now.org/

http://www.crossroad.to/text/articles/la21_198.html

http://nord.twu.net/acl/research/agenda21.html

http://www.crossroad.to/Quotes/globalism/agenda-21.htm

Open Source Movies

http://www.archive.org/details/AGENDA_21

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jun/11/un-ipcc-for-nature-biodiversity

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/06/esa-overhaul/

http://www.morphcity.com/home/75-food-and-depopulation-part-4-of-4

http://www.naturalnews.com/027971_pesticides_bees.html

http://lib.store.yahoo.net/lib/realityzone/UFNxercesbeefunders.html

http://www.newswithviews.com/Coffman/mike2.htm

http://www.morphcity.com/agenda-21/environment/esa

http://www.takingliberty.us/TLHome.html

http://www.morphcity.com/agenda-21

http://www.amerikanexpose.com/agenda21/

http://www.twp.org/wildways

http://ccta.camp8.org/Resources/Documents/Advocacy%20Comparison%20Chart,%20Alt%20D.pdf

http://www.freedomadvocates.org/articles/illegitimate_government/iclei_primer%3A_your_town_and_freedom_threatened_20090804364/

Local Planning Guide

http://web.idrc.ca/openebooks/448-2/

http://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/6911-your-hometown--the-united-nations%E2%80%99-agenda-21

http://americanpolicy.org/sustainable-development/agenda-21-in-one-easy-lesson.html

http://theintelhub.com/2011/06/15/agenda-21-and-obama%E2%80%99s-rural-council/

http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/7870-agenda-21-and-the-movement-toward-a-one-world-govt

http://theintelhub.com/2011/07/30/agenda-21-coming-to-a-farm-near-you-as-federal-government-moves-to-ban-family-farms/

 http://www.newswithviews.com/NWV-News/news266.htm

http://theintelhub.com/2011/12/30/agenda-21-your-sewage-and-you/

http://washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/2011/12/national-park-service-has-new-land-grabbing-tool/2044626?utm_source=feedburner%20dcexaminer/ColumnsFeed&utm_medium=feed%20Columns%20Feed&utm_campaign=Feed:%20dcexaminer/ColumnsFeed%20(Columns%20Feed)f#ixzz1i8JyYPlI

http://dont-tread-on.me/?p=13634

http://www.newswithviews.com/Marquardt/kathleen103.htm

http://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/11224-epas-plans-for-implementing-uns-agenda-21

http://occupycorporatism.com/americas-eco-cities-sustainable-prisons-of-the-future/

http://explosivereports.com/2012/09/22/agenda-21-trendies-theyre-everywhere/

Scenarios towards a One Planet Economy in Europe

http://www.thecommonsenseshow.com/2012/11/09/how-obama-will-force-you-into-the-stackn-packs/

[Bear]

http://www.amazon.com/Merchants-Despair-Environmentalists-Pseudo-Scienti...

[Anusocracy]

Those foragers sure worship their Nature.

Makes sense, their lives depended entirely on it and its ability to flourish.

Fortunately, times have changed and technology is allowing man to escape that constraint.

[DaveyJones]

technology can never solve a finite planet and infinite growth

[Anusocracy]

Who said anything about infinite growth?

[Oldwood]

See how Progressivism is actually Regressivism? Liberals blast conservatives as being a hundred years behind the times while they want us to go back a few thousand years, not all that differnent from radical Muslims when you think about it. Outlaw labor displacing technology, reduce population to the iceage and embrace the grunge look to better commune with the planet.

[Dr. Sandi]

Damn THEM anyway. If it weren't for THEM, it would be so much better for US.

[DaveyJones]

Can we start with Ted

and the ex-wife?

[Uber Vandal]

I know a lot of Vietnam veterans that are not Fonda her.....

I am sure that the UN put the 1 billion USD he gifted to it over a decade to good use, too.

[Dr. Sandi]

The UN used Ted's CNN money to buy 50 million photogenic blue helmets. Watch for them on the TV news. They LOOK great.

[orez65]

You are so correct.

Renewable energy only works if world population is reduced to about 5% of today's level.

Renewable energy only can not support 7 Billion people.

I used to think that the, so called, environmentalists, are just too stupid to understand this.

But if you include in your analysis terminating 95% of the human population then renewable energy makes perfect sense.

[otto skorzeny]

so the wind turbines that have not been spinning here in IL the last few days are not producing electricity-will power from unicorn shit be filling the void?

[GMadScientist]

a) who the fuck said "renewable energy only"?  (way to set up your strawman!)

b) you can reduce energy consumption without eliminating people (assuming your people aren't SUV-driving morons drawing gigawatts through their idiot boxes to watch American Idol)

c) how well will non-renewable energy work once it's gone?

[TPTB_r_TBTF]

"my people" are SUV-driving, idol-watching morons.

Can we get on with the die off please?

[GMadScientist]

"Population control" is much more humane when exercised before the pregnancy.