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On the Global Numbers - CIA Edition
The CIA has some new 2011/2012 numbers for the world's economy. These numbers are as "good" as the countries who post the individual data, so it's safe to be suspect. That said, I found them interesting.
There's 7B of us. I love the CIA's precise estimate.
Only 47% of the population is in the workforce. 28% of the population is under 14 years of age, 8% is older than 65.
Of the 3.3 potential workers, fully 9.2% are unemployed.
I was surprised to see that the global unemployment rate had risen in 2012 by .8%. That's a big change, It comes to an additional 26m people. Overall, some 300m people are looking for work. The numbers are big, the direction is bad. There is a case to be made about political stability with this many people not working.
The estimate for the USA is that 13m people are now unemployed. The US share of world unemployment is 4.3%, while US population is 4.4%. In other words, the US is right in the middle of the pack on unemployment. Not bad for the leading industrial economy........
2012 was a so-so year for global growth, down YoY and down significantly from 2010.
The CIA measures total GDP, it came to a whopping $83T in 2012. The US share is 19%.
Global GDP rose $2.2T in 2012. How did that happen? Easy, more debt, money and inflation. The stock of money rose $6.1T, about 3Xs the increase in GDP. Given this, why is gold falling?
Where did all the new money come from? Debt, of course. Domestic and cross border debt marched ever higher:
Domestic debt rose by $5.1T, while cross bordered indebtedness rose $5.4T. Total debt is up by $10.5T while GDP rose only $2.2T. From this I conclude that it takes $1 of debt to produce a measly 20 cents of growth. Who was it that said that debt was an efficient stimulus for growth? There is no evidence of that in the CIA numbers.
The world is running a budget deficit. The government deficits increased by 3.8% (Vs. GDP of 3.3%) and by $2.7T (Vs. $2.2T of real growth). On balance, for each $1 increase in government debt, GDP rose by 80 cents.
Total government debt as a share of GDP is now at 65%.
The large deficits are happening even though global tax rates are high. There is not much blood to be had from the taxpayer's stone:
Inflation was tame in 2012. With all that money sloshing around, one would think that the inflation numbers have to be headed higher.
The CIA data for 2012 is a mixed bag. There is no crisis at the moment, but there are troubling signs:
- Unemployment is dangerously high, social problems will be the result.
-Global growth is occurring as a result of ever higher debt loads, and a rapidly expanding money supply. Total debt is rising much faster than economic output. Every year we get more leveraged. The "efficiency" of debt is waning.
-Inflation is not a big issue today, but there is every reason to believe that this can't be sustained.
Spy versus Spy
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Healthcare will be turned into the Post Office and it will be run by the same union thugs and illiterates.
Since 2008 they have been taking control of every sector of the economy. You name it they control it:
1. Education. 2. banking and Financial. 3. Healthcare. 4. Housing, 5. Auto industry 6. Energy and the list goes on and on.
"...and it will be run by the same union thugs and illiterates."
Been to a VA lately? We're three steps ahead of you, bud.
:/
Had this argument/discussion with my daughters recently. They seem to think you have to destroy sick care before you can fix it, and our first queer president is just the man for the job.
Sick Care,.... 10% of peeps did not buy helath insurance... Obomber did for the chillrens... then the IRS said dependents do not have to be covered... then the "existing conditions" pools closed, so the yare totally screwed too. We will end up with less people being covered at a great overall cost to the insured, not to mention the emergency rooms still being used as free medical care. In the late-1980's health insurance for out family of 4 was $249 a quarter. It is now well over $600 a month just for me... the fricking hospitals and insurance companies then make it worse - the hospitals order services and test from "out of plan providers" so my deductible of $3,000 ends up being $6,000; so my insurance went from a grand a year for a family of 4 to $1,000 a month for me. I am really healthy and avoid the doctors but I had an accident last year. Actually, staying healthy is the cheapest health care.
Incipient currency war?
@kaiserhoff
"What I don't see yet is the mechanism. After 6 years of trying to force feed money/inflation into the economy, the Fed has failed its prime directive. How do we get to inflation, serious inflation, from here? Any thoughts?"
Not sure how long you have been in the cfl region, but is that a serious question? 6 years back, product costs alone were half what they are now, and if you want to go back to the seventies when fuel went from $0.25 to $0.85 per gallon in half a decade long gone, we're truly suffering death from a thousand cuts. This only most recent and transparent debt monetization only exacerbates the end game - enjoy it while it lasts.
That is, unless you are a .gov insulated employee with regular raises above core inflation. Been there, done that, and don't often look back.
Just visited Florida until recently, but have family here. Certainly noticed the inflation over the years, but rents are still dirt cheap.
What I'm driving at is wages. Lot's of stuff, especially health care, is going up, but unless that somehow translates into rising wages,,, it's hard to see how it leads to the sort of serious, rapid inflation most people expect. You can starve people out at the margin, and that's certainly happening, but you can't get blood out of turnip, or a $200,000 hospital bill from a $10/hour worker.
Wages aren't the inflation driver. It's cost-push. In this connection, keep an eye on the Straits of Hormuz. When they close, the dollar goes.
Somehow, TPTB have that one figured out. Fuel for instance cannot go above $4.00 per gallon for those on fixed income, on a $10.00 hour wage rate, or those who have limited UC @ $270.00 per week. Crime would skyrocket (more so), with anarchy not far behind. There have been recent cases of LE under-reporting crime statistics to pump the local areas, which skews price controls (if you believe in them).
Even the China junk sold at Walmart has been creeping up on price. It's still "death by a thousand cuts" even if the populace doesn't see "in your face" inflation. Also, rents may be cheaper in comparison to other locales, but you have to consider that lower wages accompany the free sunshine.
Inflation in what you need, deflation in what you have. Flat wages. Im not sure what you call it; but that is what we have.
Stagflation, I believe, is what they called in when Honest Dick Nixon was the face of our puppetmasters.
I like the 2.2% inflation rate...Central Intelligence Agency, now there's a contradiction in terms!
My question is who does the world owe those 3.8% GDP to?
All countries voted that Obama should run the world as its leader, as he won the Nobel peace prize and he has been on all the talk shows!
"By deception thou shalt make war"
Ben's codename is Master Flomaster in the CIA, so it's all in line.
19% of world's GDP? USA USA USA!
I like the CIA and their Factbook - always neutral, always balanced data.
Well, some may dislike the backroom deals, assassinations and poisoning of children's water supply in third world countries as their modus operandi, but I think It's alright.
The CIA viewpoint:
« We’ll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the US public believes is false. »
–William J. Casey, US CIA Director (1981-87), speaking in 1981
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Tho at least when the CIA publishes using its own name, they try to avoid the more blatant hoaxes that their agents plant anonymously on the CIA-Mossad Wikipedia
Dup
The disconnect between observation and the tons of garbage that are passed off as facts never ceases to amaze and amuse.
During my entire lifetime , we always seem to be permanently at war with sombody or even some emotive nouns when bodies just aren't available. So it should come as no surprise that given the old adage about "the first casualty of war", we can expect nothing but the best fantasies for us to enjoy from the usual alphabet agencies and their masters.
The sheep are getting wiser though. I noticed a recent poll that suggested politicians, bankers, and Journalists are almost equally distrusted by a large majority of the public (over 70%). Made me happy for a few seconds. Add that statistic to growing youth unemployment, inflation, and wealth gap, you don't have to be a historian to work out the next.
Nice quote. Reminds me of an article I read in the New Yorker a few months before 9/11 about the former cia station chief in Pakistan who only had words of praise and adoration for a Saudi chap called Bin Laden for all his help with their funding. The cia is tbtfw. (Too big to fuck with), no matter how many times its members shoot themselves in the foot.
The CIA is the banksters army.
The diminishing productivity of debt.
The more debt you have? The more you require.
Devalued currency induced cost/push inflation. Now at a store near you.
The CIA numbers and comments are likely to be AT LEAST in part true, especially the cross-comparisons (yes, I know, there is imperfect data everywhere).
My point is that we can still gain some perspective from Bruce's piece, things are going DOWN! Even "The Three Letters" agrees!
"The CIA numbers and comments are likely to be AT LEAST in part true..."
In part, Isn't that oxymoronic?
An adult who is capable of working but not working...is unemployed. There are (at least) 40 million unemployed in Amerikwa...not "13 million". Why would you believe stats put out by Death, Inc.?
I loved my brother's MAD magazines and spy vs spy as a kid. Very few words, easy for the five year old
Never knew it would represent so many things