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Ben's Winning

David Fry's picture





 
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    Bernanke gave more testimony on Wednesday emphasizing and defending all
    Fed policies. He successfully parried all questions about QE and ZIRP risks and
    made no mention of any policy exit dates. Bulls translation, the printing press
    will be on “auto” to infinity.

    Interesting testimony tidbits were:

    “Fed could go some time without sending profits to Treasury,” (Fed is
    allowed to be a deadbeat).

    “Savers will benefit with economic recovery; savers won't get strong returns
    in a weak economy,” (So not in my lifetime?).

    Not to be outdone, the ECB’s Draghi made equally curious comments:

    “We do not act to help banks or governments,” (nose growing).

    “Things are going much better in Germany than in rest of Eurozone,”
    (duh!) .

    “We see significantly lower than 2% inflation next year,” (when you make
    up the data).

    “Our monetary policy remains accommodative, and far from point where we
    can have an exit in mind,” (you starting to see central bank joint talking
    points yet?) 

    “Pre-Crisis people were living in a ‘Fairy World’, thinking spreads
    reflected reality,” (now they’re living in our “Fairy World”). 

    Little mention was made regarding Italy even as Berlusconi patronizingly
    stated:

    “Italy needs to keep finances in order and needs to reform public institutions
    to ensure political stability. (Stating the obvious clearly—he’s a reformer
    dammit.)

    Most of all this just confirmed to Bulls that all systems were “go” to
    rally. Algos jumped squeezing whatever shorts were in existence since you can’t
    fade these central bankers—at least not yet. It’s as if nothing negative happened
    Monday as everything reversed course. Gold (GLD), the dollar (UUP) and bonds
    (TLT) fell. Commodities (DBC) also plunged, as energy prices were weaker along
    with precious metals. Stocks exploded, helped in part by better data from
    Pending Home Sales (4.5% vs 3% exp. & prior revised up to -2% vs -4.3%) and
    a mixed bag for Durable Goods Orders (-5.2% vs 4.6% and prior & ex-Transportation
    1.9% vs prior 1%). If you’re interested, we did a brief video analysis of
    homebuilder (ITB)
    today.

    Meanwhile, China stated it was searching for ways to promote stock
    prices by allowing some state organizations, previously restricted from owning
    stocks, to buy them. Eurozone Economic Confidence (this is before the Italian
    vote) rose to 91 vs 89.5, which means the
    confidence level was high but after the vote may not be so.

    Headlines were screaming that “stocks were reaching all time highs,” which
    while gains were impressive, we still have a ways to go for that—ask any dotcom
    holder. Leading markets higher were transports (IYT) with just about all other
    sectors following in line. Evidently bulls aren’t one bit intimidated by
    sequester but remember that we’re also nearing month-end window dressing. Apple
    (AAPL) disappointed shareholders at their meeting by not announcing anything
    regarding their cash stash. Overseas markets weren’t as enthusiastic especially
    in higher beta sectors.

    Since it’s Wednesday, our colleague David Gillie wrote his usual brief
    but targeted ETF Mid-Week Peek, which
    should add to your assessment of conditions.

    Volume was light overall as has been the routine on recent melt-up days.
    Today’s volume in SPY was more than 100M shy of Monday’s sell-off. Breadth per
    the WSJ was again quite positive.

     

    SPY 5 MINUTE

     

  • SPX WEEKLY

     

  • INDU WEEKLY

     

  • RUT WEEKLY

     

  • QQQ WEEKLY

     

  • AAPL WEEKLY

     

    QQEW WEEKLY

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  • IYT WEEKLY

     

  • ITB WEEKLY

     

  • IYR WEEKLY

     

  • XLF WEEKLY

     

  • XLY WEEKLY

     

  • XLP WEEKLY

     

  • XLB WEEKLY

     

  • SDIV WEEKLY

     

  • LQD WEEKLY

     

  • MUB WEEKLY

     

  • TLT WEEKLY

     

  • UUP WEEKLY

     

  • FXE WEEKLY

     

  • FXA WEEKLY

     

  • FXF WEEKLY

     

  • FXY WEEKLY

     

  • GLD WEEKLY

     

  • SLV WEEKLY

     

  • JJC WEEKLY

     

  • DBC WEEKLY

     

  • USO WEEKLY

     

  • XLE WEEKLY

     

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  • IEV WEEKLY

     

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  • EPHE WEEKLY

     

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  • EWI WEEKLY

     

  • GXC WEEKLY

     

  • ILF WEEKLY

     


We’re still maintaining a 40% cash position but long other sectors as
noted where applicable.

Thursday is Jobless Claims again, GDP and Chicago PMI among other
things. The last of the earnings will feature mostly retail as is customary.
J.C. Penney (JCP) reported a crummy report and the stock is down 13.75% in
after hours trading as of this writing. Groupon (GRPN) also reported a stinker
of a report driving the stock down by 26% also after hours. These are the kinds
of stocks which investors can choose to ignore and leave on an ice floe
somewhere to die.

Lastly it seems all the hoopla about the sequester is fading making it a
non-event except for those with soap to sell.

 


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Thu, 02/28/2013 - 06:28 | Link to Comment TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

There are not many times in a life of investing whereby doing "nothing" makes sense. Turtle up, ZH'rs. 

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 02:08 | Link to Comment ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

I am personally happy the stock market is holding up during these sequester talks.  One thing we know from the recap of the crisis is politicians pay a lot of attention to what the stock market is doing.

The fact that the market is reaching all time highs takes a lot of pressure off politicians to do anything about the sequester.

On the other hand, if markets were tanking, you can bet the politicos would be scrambling to "do something".

So, if the stock market will actually lead to inaction which results in some cuts in government spending, even as insignificant as the sequester may be, it is very, very positive in my opinion.

If I were the Repubs I would let the government shut down at the end of March, and let the debt ceiling extension expire, too.  As long as Bernanke's pumped-up stock market doesn't care, let the whole fucking government get shut down.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 01:15 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Nice charts, thanks.

Ben is losing, but he appears to be winning.

Alan Greenspan times two; all he needs to do is bullshit and waste the taxpayers money for a couple more years.

When the SHTF and rates go up and the mawkets crash and the bailouts start all over again it will be blamed on "irresponsible borrowers" or "foreign speculators" or "debt living" by regular people, and of course not by governments.

No mention will be made of $40+ Billion a month of MBS purchases or nearly endless QE to benefit the banks or reach-around Treasury purchases on the backs of future generations.

Wall Street gets their bonuses, the bureacracy grinds on, politicians get their palms greased, real people get it in the ass.

Bring the guillotines out of storage already!!!  If I'm alive when this house of cards collapses I will spend all my energy exposing and tracking down the malfeasant actors like Ben Bernanke; it will be like hunting Nazi war criminals.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 00:52 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBoner_
MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

Whats with all the charts dude?

Didn't you hear? The Fed is the market. End of.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 00:01 | Link to Comment Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

It is a Federal Crime to speak of the death of the President of the United States of America, or Vice President of the United States of America, as a desirable outcome. As far as I know, this does not pertain to the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just sayin'...

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 23:27 | Link to Comment williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Just because there are people who savor eating bull shit, does not mean it's good for you.--WilliamBanzai7

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 23:04 | Link to Comment Rocket De Stock
Rocket De Stock's picture

Forex Kong has suggested that the USD will actually look to rise / take large flows as a safe haven here shortly, as the EU Crisis as well as continued U.S "garbage" send markets downward soon.

I have to agree - as Ben's game can't last forever.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 06:45 | Link to Comment Room 101
Room 101's picture

He has a lot more FRN's at his disposal.

Fuck you bernanke.

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 22:56 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

glad you could make it over to where the propaganda stops. slowly but surely this site is evolving into a place where SERIOUS money finally finds REAL debate. simply put "you'll never get there with sanitized debating platforms." i'm obviously taking a different tack right now...but it's just that..."tacking" (in sailing parlance...perhaps if i meant it in the horse sense of the term? given the performance of transports and the price of fuel...) i'm very frustrated not being in this market right now...but i'm keeping my cool until i start seeing some TRULY positive economic reports. unlike most "i don't have a problem with our polity." the war effort was designed to be limited...with Alan Greenspan "blowing up Wall Street" (how ironic it was the only place he could go back to) well, "now reducing borrowing costs is front and center The War Effort." having said that only with credit creation can we grow the monetary base and thus the economy. so far NOBODY from DC or New York is up to that task. the only one that moves me on that front is Sarah Palin right now as she actually told the big energy companies to stick it where the sun don't shine thus providing an actual policy benefit to her constituents. of course we can keep on down the path of "all Government policies old and new are simply detriments" (and by extension so are all the people involved in crafting and executing on them) and watch as our cities crumble, our wars are lost, our taxes soar, our services dwindle, etc...etc...etc...just another day in the life of the economics profession.

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 23:26 | Link to Comment williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Red sky at dawn, sailors be warned...

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 22:48 | Link to Comment dunce
dunce's picture

Bernanke proudly proclaimed that he had controlled inflation, he really believes he has the economy under control and is not just riding a tiger. Seems he is one of those gamers that have lost touch with reality, but as Woodward pointed out it may be mass hysteria.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 00:50 | Link to Comment eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

He obviously does not shop for his own groceries, fill his own car with gas and live off of the proceeds of a bond fund paid for with a lifetime of earnings.  He never prudently invested his savings in stable real estate and trusted the words of Alan Greenspan, Barney Frank and the government as he lost everything he invested.  No, Bernanke lives so far removed from Main Street he has no clue what damage his manipulated stock has done and will do to the world. He thinks the wealth that was lost by the people on Main Street has been recreated by him...perhaps, just not for mom and pop.  While they try to figure out how to make ends meet, Jamie LLoyd and their friends live off the pork fed to them from their friends in Washington, the very pork that was paid for by the people on Main Street.  And Bernanke, for all his brains and academic credentials is truly clueless. This shit has got to change! 

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 00:55 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBoner_
MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

Tru dat bro...cept the bit about Benny being clueless.

He knows exactly what he is doing.

Just following orders...

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