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Even the CBO Snubs Ryan’s Budget Plan
Congressman Ryan laid huge egg today with his budget. What's wrong with this guy? Can’t he count votes?
The proposal by Ryan is to end Obamacare. While there might be some merit to that notion – it ain’t going to happen. The Senate is controlled by the Democrats, and Obama would veto anything that came close to scrapping the cornerstone of his administration.
So don’t even bother to read the budget that the Republican’s have put up. It will not see the light of day. It was just a show pony for Ryan.
I went right to Ryan’s numbers for Social Security. How much of a reduction in benefit payments is he calling for over the coming decade? ZERO. ZIP. NADA. How to describe this obvious political dodge of responsibility: Gutless? Weak? Spineless? Chicken-hearted? Cowardly? Wimpy? How about pusillanimous (lack of courage)?
Ryan spent two of the 90 pages of crap on happy talk about Social Security. He wants to strengthen it. But he doesn’t say how, or even why. He even had the balls to quote FDR on SS. His proposal is to establish a “Presidential Commission”. Screw that idea; we did that three years ago. Nothing came from it.
The Ryan plan got the heave-ho from the Congressional Budget Office. I was amazed to see that the folks who are tasked to look at significant proposals basically said they were too busy.
The Republican jerks have squandered an opportunity to come up with anything that is even remotely feasible. Next up will be the Democratic version of Utopia. I suspect that the Senate version of a budget will be similarly out of touch with reality.
When will S&P say "enough-is-enough", and drop the US credit rating another notch? Given that there is no leadership at all, the folks at S&P must be thinking about how to respond. Last time it did not matter a damn that the rating was dropped. I don’t think the country will be so lucky the second time around.
No
I Wanna
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With great respect for ypu Bruce I have to ask, do YOU think there's any way out of this? For the the life of me I see no way out but the reset button. You can hope for unicorns like "If the republicans grew a spine" or "If the democrats realize entitlements need to be strongly adjusted" but they are just fantasy hypotheticals. They can read the writing on the wall and know that talking points is the best they can hope for. Go ahead, I'd love to be convinced there's real hope.
I don't think the UBER SHTF is anytime soon. "They" can print for a few years longer to buy some time. Is that good news?
But I'm pessimistic about anything beyond 5 years. All the lines will have crossed by then. The aging of America (and the rest of the world) is going to suck the life out of the economy. We are today on the first rung of this very steep ladder.
My "upside" story: Someone figures out cold fusion (or something) and energy costs are cut by 2/3rds.
What are the odds of that? 1-1000?
The problem I have with this is that you and Paul Krugman likely think along the same lines.
The only small difference is that Paul decided to go out on a limb and announce for these next 5 years that everything is great and there is no problem - until there is, if nobody has invented cold fusion til then.
The aging of the rest of the world? There is a huge younger crowd already on their way here from Mexico and SA.
Why do you think the .gov doesnt' give a shit about it's southern borders when they demarc community libraries in Maine?
Our elected fucking hypocrites need to hang on a rope Bruce. Get a clue.
You don't need cold fusion-fission works extremely well. You just need a more advanced fuel cycle (like the Thorium reactor idea), where reprocessing is built in and diversion of material for weapons is not possible.
On the Ryan budget: its really good if you're honest about it. You should have examined the three main components in more detail.
1)Eliminate the new entitlement-Obamacare (Absolutely great idea)
2)Voucher future medicare coverage to gradually eliminate this entitlement and solve the medical price inflation by involving the consumer for first time in decades.
3)Block grant medicaid, thus also eliminating another costing, fraudulent entitlement and allow the states to eliminate the fraud and phoney charges.
These are actually principles and should be applauded. I don't give a damn if the Senate and the President won't go along. Obama's goal is to destroy free markets and the US and convert it to a European Nanny state.
Ask yourself? Would we even have a budget deficit without medicaid and medicare? (As if people weren't just as healthy in the 1940s and 1950s!) I assure you health care has little correlation with good health-and most doctors would agree if their paycheck wasn't indangered.
Nincompoopish.
My "upside" story: Someone figures out cold fusion (or something) and energy costs are cut by 2/3rds.
Excuse me, Bruce... (making an assumption here...) but just because the cost of energy goes down are you thinking that the customer will pay less??? I don't see it.
Well you'd better have a pocket full of diamonds by then, and a few months rations to make it to the other side. I'm sure you'll blend into the crowd just fine.
Bruce
Check out Pyrophase.com
The technology will improve oil production in existing wells significantly and also makes oil shale and tar sands production more cost effective. 2/3 would be an over reach but 1/3 improvement is on its way.
Of course increased oil production won't necessarily mean a significant drop in price given the seemingly ever increasing demand.
Arthur
The down side to cold fusion is it could be used in an satellite portable neutron death ray capable of killing everyone in a large city. Other than that we can hope for the next great leap forward in productivity. Thanks and keep it up with the great posts.
Every single person on this planet is totally convinced they can print for a "few more years" and "buy some more time. The consensus is amazing.
"When everybody knows" then it is time to bet the other side, because most people are wrong.
Fonz, I've been following your conversations with ekm, and concur that the collapse is coming sooner rather than later.
Could you, ekm, or anybody else comment on this:
Why is it that in recent months, international postal rates have gone through the roof. Stuff that I used to mail to the UK, AUS or even Canada that cost me about two bucks is now $11.40. Is it because we live in a bubble here and easily accept the USD, but now other countries are wanting more of them to satisfy the same service. In other words, has mega-inflation (as far as the USD is concerned) already hit in other countries and not felt as much here yet? When the domestic rate hike took effect it was a matter of a few cents -- international rates have gone ballistic. Even Canada wants a shitload more USD to deliver the same mail.
Ummm.... pardon me but haven't you been following what The Bernanke has been doing with all that toilet paper he's been printing up? He's been EXPORTING a lot of it!!! That's why there doesn't seem to be much domestic inflation!!!
Well, there is and there isn't.
Some domestic prices haven't move in years, and others seem to go up weekly.
Domestic beer -- no price move in years
Hey Jani you actually bring up an aspect that I had not seen. It is interesting, and worth paying attention to. But I don't know if it fits into the narrative of what ekm is discussing. To be clear, Ekm believes the collapse is coming soon. I don't know about a total collapse but he certainly feels a big bank or two is going to bite the dust.
I don't know that I agree with him completely. But he feels it's a matter of weeks now. So it should be interesting to see what happens.
Yeah, a lot of it tied to oil -- or lack of and high price. Delivering mail is oil cost sensitive, but so are a lot of other things. Going to the liquor store, I don't see crazy prices yet on imported wines -- but there could be a lag -- we'll see what happens over the next few months.
Any reports about out of control import prices?
Ok I'll ask the dumb question, wouldn't cold fusion or some other theoretical ultra cheap power only delay the inevitable? Wouldn't the fraud and theft keep growing and expanding? It seems a technological solution would depend on a singularity event where tech could advance infinitely fast to deal with what would become an infinitely fast expansion of the fraud and corruption.
Yep. "no technological solution to a bail out regime." you have to study "the quants" (a famous example is the dude who uncovered Madoff's Great Ponzi...ten year before it finally blew) in order to understand that "funny money" can last a lot longer than you and I can stay solvent. The more interesting question of "can the Fed create inflation?" is the critical question that is not being answered by "being completely honest...and Frank" as is demanded by "don't let me down Bruce" here. I think the only bi partisan issue that both sides agree on is that Social Security must be maintained at all costs. This is NOT an irrational position. "what value has ANY benefit once Social Security ceases to exist?" and the answer of course is that "none do." if the money is worthless then what's the problem issuing the check right? "don't want to pay the postal service for delivery"? Well...we already have EBT. What other "cost reductions" must be executed on before we achieve "complete insolvency"?
The govt has no incentive to do anything. The status quo is what keeps them elected. Politicians only care about 2 things - increasing their power and getting re-elected. No credible plan to fix anything would solve either one of those two problems for them (the politicians). The few that stick their necks out and try to propose change are few and far between. The lobbyists are at them all the time - anything proposed has to appeal to thier fan base to keep the donations coming in. Anything that does not never sees the light of day.
We are at the point now where everyone is finally realizing that there is no solution that does not involve pain. Anything done cuts GDP, as if that should be a suprise to anyone. They just do not want to face the music - unfortunately the longer they wait the worse the solutions get in terms of hits to GDP.
GDP is only going up because of government spending. Subtract Govt spending and GDP would be CRASHING through the basement floor. GDP that includes government spending is a useless meaningless monetary metric.
And if we're talking about fixing the mess... I found this not long ago... Maybe a bit unrealistic - but there are some good points.
You are right to call out the pusillanimous pussyfooters, Bruce. Just a bunch of supercilious sophisticates. Both parties are a bunch of nattering nabobs of negativism without any moral compunction.
(...with apologies to Mr. Agnew. Or, I should say, his speech writers.)
I'm hoping for something more like 7 years before things get nasty - my youngest will be out of high school by then and I can vote with my feet more easily.
As long as they don't pass any kind of law that prohibits people from moving money out of the country, or stops them from renouncing their citizenship before then, I am OK.
When the SHTF there will be war. You want your kid to be too young to be drafted - or you want to be GONE by then.
Renouncing U.S. citizenship isn't really necessary for most people.
But FATCA is causing enormous problems for U.S. citizens to open bank accounts overseas. It's not illegal; it's just not feasible when overseas banks refuse to open accounts for Americans.
If you can't wire your funds out to an overseas account, then it's hard to leave.
Start preparing now, because the Depublicrat regime is steadily raising the barriers to leaving, just as the former Eastern European bloc did.
Sometime this year, they plan to pass a law which will cancel the passport of anyone owing more than $50K to the IRS.
Can you smell the bad intent?
It's called Capital Controls
Welcome to the Prison in the Land of the Free and the Home of Whateverwe'resupposedtocallitnow.
I wonder if Ryan said something about the military... spending cuts there?
I don´t even know why any of the side commentators bother to write articles such as this rant. It´s absolutely useless. Congress is too partisan to act voluntarily. Eventually, the whole problem with the budget is going to be solved once the bond bubble blows apart. Congress will be faced with interest rates on the debt that will rip any control they might have had and force draconian cuts that will turn half the country gray within weeks. The pain will be legendary, unavoidable, and self-inflicted. The Great Reset is coming, so prepare yourselves as best you can with phyzz and food and whatever else you may need. Save your strength for the new dark ages.
Writers write stuff like this for the same reason home builders build when there's little demand.
It's what they do.
Just like you and I bitch when nothing will come of it.
Oh NO! What are you, some kind of unpatriotic traitor?!
Don't you know that all US military spending is automatically defined as "defense", and is therefore sancrosanct? Why, dont' you know that if we cut our bloated military, er, "defense" spending even 1%, all those terrrrists would immediately invade our shores and overrun us! My God, man, think of the children!
At least there was more honesty pre-1947 when the Secretary of Defense was properly known as the Secretary of War.
.
All too true, and because the "Defense" Department is too busy being "a global force for good" instead of actually defending, a whole new Reichland Security monstrosity had to be created to protect us from teh eeevilll terrists.
However, renaming it back to the War Department would still be inaccurate, since the US hasn't been, constitutionally speaking, in a war since Japan surrendered in 1945. A more accurate label would be the Invasion Department or the Department of Threatbacking.
Department of Unconstitutional Executive Orders to War
Budgets are so passe, I don't expect to ever see one passed again in the US. Besides why would it matter if one was passed, after the sequester madness there is all of 0% chance of any real cuts. It will be full throttle into the wall.
Agreed - no more budgets, ever. And I'll one up you: that "temporary" removal of the debt ceiling ain't coming back. Not ever.
ryan is not trying to do what is right. he knows there is a good chance things blow up b4 obummers term is over and he wanted to have an "I told you so" in there.
the funny part is about the ratings agancies. It is glaringly obvious no downgrades are coming ever again. we will just lehman it again.
Pretty much agree. This is positioning for the complete disaster of Obozo Care, and all the other crap that just happens to float by.
While Bruce is right that ObamaCare is not going to be repealed this year, when people actually start having to PONY UP OR GET FINED for not buying costly insurance, they are going to be PISSED.
When that happens, a window will open for repeal or substantial modification of Obamacare.
Ryan may be placing a marker for that time, which isn't so far away. His 'dead in the water' budget is no more or less ridiculous than the president's annual 'dead in the water' budgets.
Let me perfectly clear: I despise ObamaCare. I want to kill it dead and chop off its head.
Murder for hire meets the end of the road since the international goat farmer evil guild do not need fiat butchers saving the world for them. Such a great cult these DC cabal slaves serve.
This was about positioning the Republicans for the 2014 elections. Yes we are on track to vote in cult debt saviors all over again like reagan who had the most prosecuted administration in American history if memory serves correct. Lost track on how many spinning plates of propaganda we have up at the moment. As we travel the planet I say keep them in the borders they deserve since we cannot change the course but get a few bad guys as we go into the sunset now.
"What is what do, did you say did I say, what word is that word what, what do words the word what mean?"
Or
"Computers are machines to help humans solve problems they wouldn't have solved if they didn't have computers."
These two sentences make more sense than what you wrote.
Me is are be from Michigan two
It's ok, Bruce. Everyone knows you were really rooting for courage from the Republican Party.
It's just a shame that the Democratic Party doesn't have the same opportunity to lead on this issue.
"It's just a shame that the Democratic Party doesn't have the same opportunity to lead on this issue."
Indeed. I mean, what can you do when you only hold the Presidency and the Senate? Democrats didn't do anything (including raise taxes) when they held the P+S+H, so why would we expect them to do anything now?
It's OK, I prefer the fast track to the collapse anyway, since I'm prepared and just waiting now anyway.
Republicans will only slow the process.
Sequester is about all we can hope for from the DC Bitchez.
Gold works here... (Bearings a close second)
pusillanimous-
Good word Bruce, you are quite the wordsmith
I wish... I Googled "gutless" and -pusillanimous- came back.
It's a pretty cool word. Anyone know the origin?
I thought it originated from Dr. Zachary Smith ala Lost In Space (e.g. "you pusillanimous pipsqueak").
It was popularized by Bill Safire in one of those alliterative speeches he wrote for Nixon VP, Spiro T. Agnew. "pusillanimous pussyfooters" took its place alongside "nattering nabobs of negativism" as historic political invective. Maybe not up their with Randolph's 'the man stinks and shines like rotten mackeral in the moonlight' but not bad.
Pusillus- Latin, meaning "very small."
Animus- Latin, meaning "Animal" or "character."
Hmmm ... so it's nothing to do with loose women. Too bad ...
Probably related to midget porn.
"Congressman Ryan laid huge egg today with his budget. What's wrong with this guy? Can’t he count votes?"
So, you're saying don't do what's right, do what's popular?
Okay. Someone get Thomas Jefferson on the phone for me. I need to have a word...
:/