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All Aboard The Equity Elevator - Next Stop......... Down?

CrownThomas's picture




 

By now we know that all news is good news, no matter what the reality of the situation is. The smart folks are telling everyone to risk everything & jump on board the volumeless, momentum driven equity elevator and ignore those annoying doom & gloom blogs. 

However, given the recent events in Socialist Europe, they may be the one's on the other side of the trade this week as john q. public takes his savings and dumps it into XLF and monthly newsletters at an inopportune time.

 

2001/2007 redux, or ready to explode higher? Place your bets...

 

 

Chart: BofAML

 

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Sun, 03/17/2013 - 08:39 | 3337570 mind_imminst
mind_imminst's picture

Sure there will be a drop, but it is different this time. Politicians "learned" how to juice the stock market in 2008/2009. Any failures/bankruptcies/dislocations in Europe or in the U.S. will be met with central bank printing. Remember the lesson the politicians and the FED learned in 2008, they should have "never let Lehman go bankrupt". Probelms in Europe will be solved by that line of thinking. "We can't let Europe" (or XXXX TBTF institution) fail. Just watch. You think QE is big now, just wait until the next market pullback. This ends in wheelbarrows (and DOW gazzilion thousand) - like always.

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 08:25 | 3337549 DeficitAlchemist
DeficitAlchemist's picture

Hi,

 

I am in agreement, I have put my traders and subscribers on high alert for an HFT & Algo based Flash Crash MKII event, I have focused on the Nasdaq:

 

Reasons outlined in the clipe below are:

  1. Collapsing recent volume
  2. Rising Wedge technical pattern, precursor to high momentum Down break, as buyers do a George Foreman punching themselves out
  3. All OBV (Cumulative Volume x Price added or deducted depending on whether down or up) highs diverging lower and Lows too for the highs in 2011 and before, meaning despite higher highs in price over the same period bigger selling on downdays cumulatively, points to distribution.
  4. Just passed key level of 2775, a previous neckline support for the last highs Head and shoulders
  5. This level also represents the 50% Fibo level for the capitulation from 2000 Dot Com highs
  6. Price action pivoting around round numbers 2800 as it has responded on 2500,2600,2700

I offer 2 likely sell off scenarios and also an outlier stretch upwards scenario before adjustment.

Clip below

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CGSXlHRzvE

Lots of detailied annotated Static charts available here:

http://themarketsniper.com/break-outs/shares-stocks-global/nasdaq-100/hi...

Enjoy!

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 08:01 | 3337526 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Never fear! 

The US cavalry is here! 

Dollar Bullishness Growing - Business Insider

and here :

DAVID ZERVOS: I Feel Sorry For The Bears - Business Insider

All those bears are just the new APaches, and when the cavalry arrives there will be mayhem for bears! 

Bull stampede like Bisonville!

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 03:02 | 3337368 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Tis the final weapon of the Fed unleashed. Shall it fail all is lost. DHS is not fully in position at this time and with a bank run starting in the EU FED must apply full steam to the markets. BTFD.

It's the grand finale folks. Jump aboard while there is still time. Every disaster will be met with an increase in FED market ramp. It is their stolen and conterfeited money and their algos. The rise cannot be stopped unless the banksters make that decision. BTFD2

Sat, 03/16/2013 - 23:45 | 3337201 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

before you all run out and spend your money on SPX puts consider this melodrama has been played out before. first of all this is the sell in May season, so everyone is sure that investors will lighten their portfolios. ergo the FED steps in with aggressive POMO activity, and plenty of jawboning. now the market finds a BRIDGE to the fall, supposedly dangerous fall season, but it has been proven over a number of years that investors start to buy the market each day that the socalled fall bear APO-collapse fails to arrive. so its a BTFD setup if you will, leading them into the famous SANTA CLAUS rally. this is the post modern stock market setup. what happens in the meantime? the market drifts a bit lower setting up the fall BUYING season, which goes against SENTIMENT. if the turn is successful then the Xmas season rally kicks in, which is the anti APO-collapse relief rally, usually accompanied by plenty of consumer hopium. the bear APO-collapse is a nonsequitr, already planned for like putting sand bags on the dike, the real danger lies somewhere in between. mostly the summer is low volume which is of course the WEAPON OF THE BULL {not otherwise as your textbooks claim} but one high volume down day can be counterd by 5 or 10 low volume days so that in the end volume may be net net lower for given period, but the market is higher, get it? okay now the market crashes just at the moment the BTFD group is all in, which they always are, but you as a short have no idea when it will happen, they're right 99/100 times. so before you spend money on SPX shorts which only help accomplish the work of the FED think about it. 

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 00:19 | 3337247 cifo
cifo's picture

I can't wait for Monday.........

Sat, 03/16/2013 - 23:35 | 3337178 hmmtellmemore
hmmtellmemore's picture

In a contrarian-contrarian viewpoint, if the EU, France, Japan and the UK slowly fall apart, then capital will continue to make its way to New York.  Don't get scared until you see that a stock market trading app is on all high schoolers iPhones.

Sat, 03/16/2013 - 23:12 | 3337122 Frank Zappa
Frank Zappa's picture

Tombstone - why did the $SPX drop 9.9% from April 1 to June 1 in 2012 if the Fed's POMO is a guarantee of infinite $SPX appreciation?

Sat, 03/16/2013 - 20:46 | 3336731 Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

As long as Benny's hand is on the pump handle, money will flow into the equity markets.  Only a sane person would bet against this continued house of cards erection.  And since the Kommies regained control of Washington, there aren't many of those around. 

Sat, 03/16/2013 - 21:38 | 3336881 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

That chart sure looks like the results of a hand pump.  Pump...spurt...drawdown (fill vacuum) three times over.  What makes you think the customary drawdown is not coming?  It will take an additional anouncement of a new QE (pump phase) to begin the next spurt, after the coming drawdown, that is.  If a new QE is announced before the drawdown, then perhaps we will see a spurt higher.

Sat, 03/16/2013 - 22:49 | 3337070 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

kirk provokes a constitutional crisis 

hilarity ensues, with landru resigning to spend more time with his family

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVj3G-QlIgA&t=240s

 

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