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Impact Imminent?
Zero Hedge has the latest Cyprus update - There is no parliamentary support in Cyprus for any bail-in deal. Tyler Durden begs the question:
Neither we, nor anyone else, has any idea what comes now.
The folks at FTAlphaville have some thoughts on the state of play:
A bank run spreading to Spain looks a non-starter in the short term.
The risk of any wider bank run looks pretty small so far, with market reaction relatively benign.
I've been following the Press coverage of Cyprus, the talking heads are saying that Cyprus is a manageable issue. Nothing to worry about at all.
I'm going to disagree with FTA and the TV folks. The chances of a bank run have never been higher. Tyler's right. We're looking at a black hole.
The "Other" scenario for Cyprus is a shell shocker. Forget the shareholders or the senior bond guys - they will end up with Dick's hat band. Those Russians who were at risk of losing as much as 15% of their deposits - They get zip too. At best, they are getting an IOU. That IOU will have a value of 10 cents on the dollar.
Those small depositors that were going to get hit for an unfair loss of 6% now face a vacuum. Their bank statements may not reflect a loss of principal, but they won't be able to withdraw a dime from those accounts. The local banks will remain closed, when they do reopen those deposits will be converted to some new currency. It's possible that the new currency will be the Turkish Lira. You thought the poor folks in Cyprus were getting a bad deal on Monday? Wait till Friday before you pass judgement.
What happens if Cyprus does a "drop out" of the EU? That result immediately makes a lie of Mario Draghi's words that the Euro was Uber-Ales. This is precisely what Super Mario said "would never happen".
If Cyprus goes turtle and leaves the Euro, the credit spreads on peripherals will widen. This sets up a market "call" on the ECB. But remember, for Mario Draghi to give the market the "put" that it will demand, the government's of Spain and Italy will be forced to get down on their knees and beg the gods in Brussels and Berlin for a helping hand. To do that means that they would have to have very harsh terms imposed on them. An IMF team would run the finances of the countries involved.
Given that there is zero chance that Italy and Spain will do the necessary begging, the value of the promised Draghi "put" is now zero.
There is a chance that something can be done to stop what looks like a slide into an abyss. Those chance are now well below 50-50. The markets/seers are calling for a soft landing, while at the same time that outcome is looking less and less likely. The markets seem poorly positioned for what could result in a crisis. And this story is running at hyper speed. That' a very bad combo of events. Seat belts on - Impact Imminent!
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@geno-com: "fowl language" - would that be cluck-cluck?
keep your hands free n easy for some intense sleuthing...Moneypenny was very good at that.
I don't have a black account. Funny story:
My Ex files for divorce. She hires the same lawyer that Mia Farrow used when she filed against Woody Allen. (I shit in my pants)
The fucking lawyer lady is super tough. She gets an order that forces a forensic audit. She thinks like you do. I'm a banker, Swiss - so I gotta have a secret stash.
So the accountants come look for a few months. Nothing to see. It cost me $30k to prove I was clean.
I had a girl friend. Lived in Berlin. I had her number written down in a journal. 0149 447 865 4434.
They thought that was the secret bank account number. I got the girl to write a letter that this was her number. The judge looks at it and laughs, dismisses the probe for black money. And then filed in favor of my ex, as I had just proved I was playing on the side.....
At the time, I was not laughing a bit. Today? WTF??
So, if your Ex was granted the divorce, does that mean you are married to her again?
Hardly
So, if they found nothing, shouldn't she be paying the auditing?
.
Just one of the distinctions between a justice system and a legal system.
-"So, if they found nothing, shouldn't she be paying the auditing?"
Holy fuck what planet are you from? Sir, STEP AWAY FROM THE ALTAR! SLOWLY REMOVE THE RING FROM YOUR FINGER, AND KEEP YOUR HANDS WHERE WE CAN SEE THEM!
Bruce, you must be the first honest Swiss banker :)
Drop the bull, show us the stash!
LoL! out smarted yourself huh!! Innocent AND proven guilty.
Tough lawyers are scarier than tough laws.
Bruce, my dad told me on the announcement of my divorce proceeding: "This is the fucking you'll get to pay for the fucking you got".
pretty smart for a truck driver, that guy.
if you got married to get to some fucking,
boy did you make a mistake!!
Doh!
Funny story.
I'm sure Bruce retained his Swiss citizenship,and has a little nestegg somewhere which
he pays his Swiss taxes on.There is a double taxation agreement in force.
Being a Swiss I'm sure his DNA has made him diversify into gold.It was taught to me by my Swiss grandfather
and father from the time I could speak.
I'm a Swiss citizen with Jewish ancestors and I aprove this message.
You should teach your fellow Israelites the basic age-old rules of financial common sense, then - apparently, their central bank loaded themselves up full of the yankee dollah...
Indeed. Besides, why should Russia (or anyone for that matter) actuall "pay" for anything when they can just wait a bit and get it much cheaper, or simply fucking take it.
They MSM will always say that things are manageable because they are in the business of inspiring confidence. I feel duty bound to tell you, Bruce, that the ECB has all they need to keep the Euro alive and that is the nuclear option. No one wants to be seen to be the one to push the button, but, make no mistake, they will push it if they have no other choice.
There's something going on here in Turkey that may be leading in the direction of your speculations Bruce.
My banks have denied online service for two days(altho our correspondent e-cep says he has accessed without problem in that time frame), and at my branch today it was admitted that internal systems have been down within the bank for that same period. The flow of transactions within the bank appeared totally normal. So clearly tellers have access to something on the screen, and credit card transactions are working. But bank transfers and electronic banking ...not so much.
It's a controlled reset. There may be an offer on the table today from the Turks to give access to funding in return for some kind of quid pro quo on the stalemate over the divided territory and the accession to Eurozone which the Cypriots, along with Greece, have been the primary obstacles to.
Even the possibility of a trade off with the Russians on the gas fields...which the Turks have the capacity to keep from ever coming on stream. There's an even greater possibility that central bank gold is going to play a major part of this development.
Apparently, this was the final charge of the "Light Brigade" into the line of fire. Mass carnage for the West. And the end of an Era.
"Has anyone seen my Regiment?"
Maybe the British would like the USA to buy Cyprus with some electronic FRN, so that the USA can takeover the British military bases in Cyprus.
Better for the British to let the USA resist Russia takeover of Cyprus.
British Templars and American Templars on the same horse.
Buying Cyprus is less expensive than the War in Iraq.
Erdogan to the rescue? That would be an interesting outcome.
The re-rise of the Ottoman Empire?
History repeats. (and don't forget about all of that gas....)
If you have more anecdotal information on this please pass it on to Zero Hedge tip line. Tks
bk
"It's possible that the new currency will be the Turkish Lira"
You've raised you ignorance to an entirely different level. Stop posting this shit you keep pulling out of your ass.
know what you mean, been there
The Great Game is on again...huge power shifts taking place right before our eyes! This will not be about the Turks rescuing anybody...rather, their re-alignment with Eastern Powers and disentanglement with the broken West. That said, it's still the tiny terrorist state with the nuclear blackmail arsenal that holds the cards, and for now, at least, dictates all the terms to the various players.
If Assad hangs tough for one more month, look for Jim Willies' new "Gold Trade Settlement System" to take the place of the Petro-dollar faster than anyone can imagine...the boys the in the Stanbul gold bazaar know which way the wind is blowing...Erdogan and the neo-Ottomans will prove just chaff in that breeze... soon enuff...this is all about business.
Obummer the Islamic.
Frieddie the wrinkled old numbnut
When all the cars are gone ... "Jim Willies' new "Gold Trade Settlement System" to take the place of the Petro-dollar" ...
Not a moment sooner.
The cars are going however. As long as one car is running on a highway or street anywhere, the world economy will continue to unravel. They are rolling capital gluttons ...
...
Then we're all doomed as there's no way the masses are ever going to believe or face up to that with equinimity - whether true or false.
The End
The Turks - that makes sense nice folks those Ottomans, the Cypriots will surely welcome them offering their daughters and sons as tokens of appreciation - then there are the Oligarchs' who's surrogates make M23 or Bario 18 seem like choir boys , the Oligarchs they like their money and would be annoyed if it were somehow taken from them
Yes, things are heating up in the Eastern Med. I'd bet on Putin for the win, Euro to place, and Isramerica/dollar for...dead last.
"Mass carnage for the West" - Really, so after all this collapses, I guess my co-op and I can look forward to recieving gold in exchange for our soybean shipments to the (rather overcrowded) East. Fucking bring it!!! Got physical? You better.
Unless some kind of OPEC of food can be cobbled together, I think you are overstating your power. And if an OPEC of food is cobbled together, then war is a distinct possibility.
It will all be unicorns fruit loops and stardust
Ou est Herr Franz Ferdidand? It seems about the right time, nes pas?
YES! Now witness the power of this fully operation Archer Daniels Midland!
weaponize the food, bitchez. How many nations are net importers of food?
I don't know how many, but the USA is one of them, getting a lot of food from S. America and China.
All i'm missing is a car full of PM's.
Coincidently they were giving the final vote tally on the radio while I was picking up my lastest haul of gold and silver. It was a happy moment where I basked in the sun.
And then I dropped the coins in a tragic kayaking accident.
My condolences for your tragic loss. LOL
I seem to have been burglarized tommorow. Them damned thieves.
My kids found my silver coins without me knowing and used them all summer to buy ice cream at the local coffee and ice cream shop for them and their friends.
They thought it was just spare change similar to thecontainer by th laundry room
I figure each ice cream cone was costing me about $400.00 dollars
I'm taking up SCUBA diving this spring. I'm convinced every body of water in America must have a foot-deep layer of gold, silver and firearms on it's bottom.