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Bernanke is Succeeding - Watch Out!
The 1st Q was a boomer for junk. The best ever - by a long shot.
U.S. Leveraged lending reached a quarterly record in 1Q13
- Leveraged institutional lending hit all time $190 billion record in 1Q13
- CLO issuance topped $26 billion in 1Q
- U.S. leveraged loan issuance reached a quarterly record in 1Q13, at $286.6 billion, beating 4Q12's prior $232.82 billion record, according to Thomson Reuters LPC.
The big numbers were the result of a combination of new issues, and refinancing of existing junk. Wall Street created a blizzard of junk paper - and sold it all. The window for all this biz was clearly the Fed. The promises of endless ZIRP and $85B a month of artificial demand forced yield starved investors to run to the junk pile. In the process, the cost of issuing the junk fell to record lows.
Over the coming months, Bernanke and the other Fed doves will point to the huge run up in junk as "definitive evidence" that their policies are working. Ben has said (dozens of times) that he wants to force money into taking risk. His tool to achieve this goal is the promise of endless cheap money. So Ben is looking at the junk data, and crying "Mission Accomplised!".
Of course I see it in the opposite light. We're in a junk bubble. The bag of gas is brought to us by the Fed. The yields on junk have fallen to levels that are going to produce negative returns. Not all of this paper is money good - it never is - that's why they call it junk.
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Junk Silver is better than Junk Bonds.
However the premium on Junk Silver is now very very high.
testing 28 dollar low. i'm amazed in this era of endless fiat printing they are able to supress the price so low...
Bruce,
Perhaps it's not your normal haunt, but here's an idea for an article: patent protection for Big Pharma. On April 1, the India Supreme Court upheld a ruling that denied patent protection to Novartis for its cancer (specifically chronic myeloid leukemia) drug Glivec. Thus, Indian pharm firms will be able to produce and sell generic Glivec, at least in India. Under Novartis, it costs a patient approximately $2200/month to use Glivec, which doesn't cure, but effectively treats chronic myeloid leukemia in 95% of patients. It must be consumed daily for life. Indian generic producers, who do not have any R&D costs to recover, charge $145 per month.
Novartis argued that they deserve patent protection owing to the need to recover R&D costs, plus they argue that denying patent protection will harm innovation because those who can develop, but who cannot recover the costs of it, will no longer innovate. The Indian view, besides assuming the authority for deciding who must pay for what Indian patients need (Novartis), feel that it is better to take what already exists and has been proven to work, rather than worry about any future treatment for other diseases that might someday exist (or might not now that innovation might be hurt by the inability to protect patents). A pill in the hand is worth two in the lab.
This is the sort of topic for which one can build an argument for either side. India claims they have 300,000 CML sufferers (in a population of 1.25 billion), and given the survival rate for those using Glivec, patent denial will save 285,000 lives (or save the Indian Government $2000/month * 300,000 * avg lifepan of patient). The number of Indians who might now die because Novartis, or other Big Pharma, will not bother to develop treatments for other diseases is an unknown quantity. This is a can't-win-for-losing issue.
On a totally unrelated matter (but India related), the Times of India reported on 1 April (no joke) that doctors in India are seeing many female patients who are entering menopause in their 20s. Apparently---this is shocking---the mean age for entering menopause is India is 35 years of age. When it comes to biological clocks, in India time flies.
Thanks for this, I'll look into it, but as you say - this ain't my haunt.
b
The only entity's he getting to take more risk are the ones we don't want to take more risks ... The banks
Bernanke is the Tautologist-in-Chief, whose models prove that his models work. He suffers from the same sort of academic arrogance that brought down his former fellow professors like Myron Scholes, who forgot that one of the assumptions he used to construct his own theories ('assume infinite liquidity') is not actually one of the hallmarks of real world markets. Bernanke makes his own errors.
It has gotten little mention (none), but in a panel discussion in late March, Bernanke made a comment that should make sane people sit bolt upright. He said that during the 2007 financial crisis, the Fed "discovered that the financial system was more vulnerable to real estate problems than it had been to the dot.com bust". Oh my!
Look-em up, Ben. "Equity" "Debt". Yes, how utterly surprising that the financial system might be more vulnerable to problems in the latter. Maybe there's a second PhD in there somewhere? Oh wait, I just found it. It's in a book for the class Economics 101.
Junk with a negative rate of return? They need to invent a new term for that. ZunK? Nunk?
It's been interesting to note that HYG has been substantially underperforming stocks for a while now.
Since January, Dow up 11.21%. HYG up 0.73%. Yes, I get that HYG pays monthly divs, but that's still a relatively trivial bump (adding maybe 1.3% to this). That's still only a 2% gainer top end so far this year in the face of ZIRP and unsterilized POMO. I think el Dow is due to at least meet back up with HYG here.
before:
FOR SURE. As soon as I heard the line “if you can believe in stocks going higher you HAVE to believe in high yield credit!” I knew it was bust & not to be touched.
now:
I'm hearing again in big conferences that "inflation is low" and "the recovery is in" as banks try to sell more paper & sound like they're drinking their own kool-aid. Either very naive or very good at their sales-pitch.
Long boating accidentz, bitches
Nogginfarten.
Is that Pharfenuegen's ugly sister?
hey Bruce if you can't afford this service maybe your rim lickers'll pitch in
Yeah, Bernanke is "Winning".
Just a little more Meth and and he'll have twins in his bed.
Fuck You Bernanke
RISK??? Everywhere I look people are building economic bunkers and reinforcing them with logs and sandbags and concrete! and then when it's too dark to work, the hit their knees and pray the collapse won't happen before morning so they can reinforce their little economic cockleshells some more.
"Economic Cockleshells." Nice touch.
Uncle Ben Reamus and the boys are not finished until they ream us all like the Bath House Queen @ 1600 PA Ave! This truly must be an April Fool's joke...
Germany called their gold from US Fed. I wonder what their yield to worst is going to be?
Dear Deutschland,
We're sent ALL your gold, via a Liberty Ship, so not to worry anymore. And you didn't trust us!
Oooops, seems there was an accident at sea and the ship sank. We'll start the recovery operaton, but it may take awhile.
Wait....you mean Bin Laden now has all the Gold?
Do you think that HP has evil and predatory pricing practices on its inkjet printer refill cartridges? Please see article and survey. I will keep this survey up for one month and then send the results to HP’s CEO and VP of marketing. http://tinyurl.com/cjpvaf7
I have used Brothers for years now. I recently purchased 3 complete sets of ink cartridges (all colors+black) for $9.95 on Amazon:
http://www.amazon.com/Pack-Compatible-Brother-LC-61-Cartridges/dp/B004GEHTVY/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1364839134&sr=8-2&keywords=brother+ink+cartridge
These work great ... there is no reason to deal with big 'retail' ink.
Laserjet III was the last good printer HP ever made. I've been using Brothers for years now.
Yep, been using my MFC-495CW for a couple of years now, uses the same LC-61 carts you mention. I get them usually from Meritline, they have sales on them where you get two complete sets + two extra black carts (4 black, 2 ea of the color carts) for between $7 - $8.00 shipped. Can't beat that! Except, if you really want to go cheap, look into these: http://www.inkxpro.com/Refillable-ink-cartridges-LC61-for-Brother-printer-p/cartridge-brother-lc61.htm --- note: you can find these same refillable carts on eBay for as little as $8.99 shipped. This is just one example, google for "LC-61 refillable cartridges" for more.
Hands down, this Brother printer is the best one I've ever owned. I wouldn't consider anything else at this point. I got it for $35 at Office Depot on clearance, so double win!
After a series of HP printers died anywhere from a month to a year out of warrenty I decided to try the new printer Kodak was hyping. That turned out to be the worst printer I ever had. It was slow, horribly noisy, didn't live up to the ink saving hype, and died in less than 2 years. I now have 2 Epson WP4530's, one at home and one at my offce. The ink usage cost is far less than the HPs and Kodak, and they are very fast and print quality is excellent. They are rather large, not an issue for me, but might be if you are cramped for space.
I don't see that complaining to HP executives will be any better than banging your head against a wall. They obvoiusly have their plan, and will stick to it until they are bankrupt like Kodak. And after buying that Kodak printer I have to admit to a certain feeling of pleasure on hearing about Kodak's trouble. May HP be not far behind.
having trouble with me Kodak "inksaver" right now, it won't take the new black ink cartridge. well i guess i am saving ink, i can't print anything.
"Ben is a genius. Deal with it, doomers!"
Greenspan was called The Maestro. He is not called that any more. Neither is Ben a genious. The NasdaQ and housing bubbles seemed like a great thing while they were expanding. Eventually the truth came out. The same will hold true for Ben. The truth wil come out and Ben willl be proven not to be the genious he is imagined to be.
If Greenspan is The Maestro,
Bernanke is the Maelstrom.
Wait a bit and you can deal with the collapse of this unsustainable fraud
it's already out, in 2005 he said that housing would soften in '06 but nothing substantial would ever happen, his genius is in looking sincere while he twists the knife in your back another turn
He actually looks you right in the face. smiles and then Zirp's your eyeballs out.
Force money into taking risk...humm, as if 700 T of notational private derivative bets OTC, dark pooled, etc. is small fry risk taking?
Its looks like ape shit panic plays in reserve's world reservaton à la King Kong's last stand on Empire State's pinnacle.
NOT enuff risk for electronic CB backed up money circulation?
Reserve currency print is now the sewer leaving the Fukushimaed monetary mother of all fiat nuclear plants with a molten core somewhere between the Eccles building and the JPM building in Got§ham city.
It should be plain to all from Cyprus to Malibu CA., those drowning is unsustainable entitlements to be axed; all to be bailed-in and corraled in global fiat land.
Unless you be Krugman who never accepts any mail from the mailman. Head up his nirvana fiat to moon trek.
The postman always rings twice...Krugman. The second time its after the event; you wife has been stolen and your money kaboomed.
"No problem, I needed to change my car, my shirt and my dame.. We'll just print all the same!"
Ben and Barry's serve free junk ice cream to TBTF and i-scream to its clueless sheeple.
April fool poem.
But to be clear, this system is also in fair measure just random destruction, not a brilliant conspiracy. As the consolidation of wealth around finance capital demonstrates, there are clear ways for small groups of connected insiders to benefit from economic looting and plunder. But the coordination problem (long understood by capitalist economists before the rise of neo-liberalism) is both fundamental to capitalist production and, to the extent outcomes result from an absence of information rather than planned looting, random within the system itself.
http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/03/29/wall-streets-role-in-the-crisis-i...
FORWARD!!
success after a fashion, but it seems to break down this way in my own circle. ten investors fed up with zero interest and AFRAID their bank might close regardless, maybe 1 or 2 will move into riskier paper, but 1 or 2 will move into gold and PM. that's 50% of the people who actually decide to change their allocations.. riskier paper is liquid and can easily go back into savings accounts, while its easy to get into PM, the holder is less likely to liquidate. to Bernanke, gold is a roach motel on economic savings, because it doesn't come out easily or often. while he's getting 1 or 2, into risk, 1 or 2 are also lost for the duration, rinse and repeat eventually you have no one in risk assets.
This is a very astute observation, and Widowmaker concurs.
"True" savers are indeed moving to PM's - not huge moves but increasing in frequency and consistency for certain. Interestingly, this includes a dramatic increase by younger individuals (under 40ish). Never seen young adults interested in metals like they are at the present.
Ben hasn't won anything, he has lost the fucking war along with every other bullshit-banker that lies and dies by ommission and obfuscation.
You only lose the War when the other side is vanquished ... and with Markets at all-time highs and cash at all-time lows, it doesn't feel like the Banksters have been vanquished yet.
All this encouraging economic news is fantastic and I expect any day now to become wealthy enough to buy my daughter a pony.
a pony? very wise investment 'Fool, future meat on the table.
You've done well. I'm going to have to sell my children for medical experiments.
Well you should have been a Protestant then.
You'll get a much better return if you sell into the Human Trade markets in Istanbul. The medical experiments market is in backwardation. Also with the warming weather, the firewood market demand is going down.
"Jarvis, it's feeling chilly in here. Throw another peasant on the fire."
Mission accomplished. Take a look at the asset side of his balance sheet.
they define risk as a 30 year T Bond. after the new wave of Kapital Kontrols are put in effect, that may be the only paper you are [forced] allowed to buy.
I'd rather buy doughnuts than that crap...
And you'll be damn happy if you're lucky enough to earn a hundred basis points for it.
ZIRP4EVA
On the doughnuts?
Ben is a genius. Deal with it, doomers!
(How did I do MDB?)
Not sure about the "hedge" part of your moniker, but boy did you get the "tard" one right !
You.... very funny boy. You go home now.