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Bernanke is Succeeding - Watch Out!

Bruce Krasting's picture




 

 

The 1st Q was a boomer for junk. The best ever - by a long shot.

 

U.S. Leveraged lending reached a quarterly record in 1Q13

  • Leveraged institutional lending hit all time $190 billion record in 1Q13
  • CLO issuance topped $26 billion in 1Q
  • U.S. leveraged loan issuance reached a quarterly record in 1Q13, at $286.6 billion, beating 4Q12's prior $232.82 billion record, according to Thomson Reuters LPC.

 

The big numbers were the result of a combination of new issues, and refinancing of existing junk. Wall Street created a blizzard of junk paper - and sold it all. The window for all this biz was clearly the Fed. The promises of endless ZIRP and $85B a month of artificial demand forced yield starved investors to run to the junk pile. In the process, the cost of issuing the junk fell to record lows.

 

reuters

 

Over the coming months, Bernanke and the other Fed doves will point to the huge run up in junk as "definitive evidence" that their policies are working. Ben has said (dozens of times) that he wants to force money into taking risk. His tool to achieve this goal is the promise of endless cheap money. So Ben is looking at the junk data, and crying "Mission Accomplised!".

 

mission

 

Of course I see it in the opposite light. We're in a junk bubble. The bag of gas is brought to us by the Fed. The yields on junk have fallen to levels that are going to produce negative returns. Not all of this paper is money good - it never is - that's why they call it junk.

 

images

 

 

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Mon, 04/01/2013 - 11:14 | 3395904 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

Ask Paul Krugman over at "conscience of a liberal"

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 22:39 | 3398163 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

An oxymoron.  A stiff d*ck and a Keynsian have no conscience...

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 11:01 | 3395839 asteroids
asteroids's picture

The real question is "How much is enough". If you belive the FEDs new targets, then we'll never get there due to demographics The Western world will eventually become Japan. But, it'll be much much worse.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 11:00 | 3395831 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

here's your latest band of shorts being carted off the battlefield: http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/tsla?source=search_general&s=tsla

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 14:14 | 3396598 Bear
Bear's picture

It's April 1st ... it's just a joke

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 10:48 | 3395787 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The monetization of everything, bernanke has succeeded in pushing up the "value" of financial "products" of mass destruction.  Remind us Bruce what is the real value of all this paper bullshit?  I remain long physical and anything of real fucking value.  People and real manufacturing requires real inputs and energy, most of which is not counted in the CPI.  Fuck all the god damn paper-pushering kleptocrats and roll motherfucking guillotines already.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 11:13 | 3395894 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Yup! At least we will all be millionaires. Think of how good it will be, being the "new rich" that will find themselves in those new "the rich will pay" tax brackets.

Energy and population density is the key, particularly if you look on longer timelines. It was a major factor in why I moved to Alaska. For the record, New Zealand has very sensible immigration policies if you have education/skills and they also have significant hydro generation in some parts of the country like AK. Both economies "produce stuff" that people need (i.e. natrual resources).

Going to be a rough ride. Best of luck to you and I hope you got out of the metro before TSHTF!

Regards,

Cooterh

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 12:19 | 3396154 mirac
mirac's picture

Those are two places that I would not chose to live in with what's happening on the planet.  You risk an ice age.  New Zealand, quakes, volcanoes and tsunamis.  Definitely not the West coast of USA!

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 01:53 | 3402165 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

You CAN’T be serious. April fool’s indeed!

Temperatures have been getting warmer for 30 years with no abatement in sight.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 10:49 | 3395784 DavidC
DavidC's picture

I honestly find it nearly impossible, were it not for his continued actions, to believe someone as well educated as Bernanke can be as stupid as he appears to be, FORCING (or at least trying to) people to get into such crap to achieve yield.

DavidC

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 15:58 | 3397027 NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

Never underestimate the truely stupid.  No need to go to a more complicated explanantion when stupidity explains it.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 01:57 | 3402170 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Either stupid people are lying with credibility & influence-trading, by accidental virtue of being lucky, or liars are also including they may be stupid so as to decrease murderous anger, hoping merely stupid people will be pushed aside instead of into a guillotine.

One of these outcomes is very likely & it's not the one you named.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 11:57 | 3396083 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Stupid people don't have quivering lips when trying to sound intelligently stupid. Instead, he's scared to death he might accidentally say something true, thus immediately ending his "Reign of Error."

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 11:02 | 3395832 nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

Maybe the plan is the destruction of capital currently 'in the wrong hands'... once those junk 'investments' go poof that money cannot be used to hire an army... and the take over is complete.

It is just so much stupidity it has to be by design.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 11:54 | 3396070 Lordflin
Lordflin's picture

Yes... it is tempting to think that so much stupidity ( at least so much as it appears on the surface) is the product of design as it is in the nature of those who think to look for patterns. On the other hand, the human capacity for stupidity as bred by hubris and greed is almost infinite... So it could quite possibly just be stupidity...

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 11:19 | 3395923 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

RE:

It is just so much stupidity it has to be by design.

This is a GREAT way to put it.

We have 1.5 more years of this nonsense.  The real fun begins in 2015.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 11:17 | 3395914 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

this is the capital control argument. some hot money is good, other hm is not. the anaylsts can barely mention the term (hot money) without having propaganda tremors of withdrawal. the fed reinflated all boats (we know some countries are swimming naked, the tide is about to go out, and the MSM cheered like hell on the way up, [carried water for the FED] but they're not CNBC. they can't turn on a dime and trash the market rally all the way down). the biggest players are still immune, (they can't say the name but i can CHINA) and you know something is going on because their tiny insane little surrogate state (NKOREA) wants to nuke California. now CHINA has done ZERO to stop this, so we have NUKES on station, and when we drop the pumpkin just hours from BEJING that will send a HOT MONEY MESSAGE. and for the HOT MONEY [CHINA] olympic financial ponzi game over, it is Acta Fabula something something.

eventually you'll see the FED addressing reserve issues with their charter banks on a case by case basis. micromanaging is the new FED policy[ergo capital controls, and we now know that the fascist model is the one they will follow, so buy Defense stocks]

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 11:59 | 3396093 nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

B-2s 'exercising' over SK... yes, it is a bit too much for NK and would likely go right over it. Not that I think they would but, like you said, the message is there and may be enough of a cold water.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 12:20 | 3396161 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

and economic policy conflicts become geopolitical conflicts, or currency wars without the currency

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 10:32 | 3395729 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Ben IS winning. The sheeple loose again. Baaaaahhh

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 20:24 | 3397836 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

off the track - just wondering.  anybody seen timmy lately?  i can just picture timmy and corzine having a nice toast to all of us.  'god bless us all and mostly tiny tim'.

 

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:53 | 3397441 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

I'm confused.  Are Treasury Notes junk bonds?

 

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 19:16 | 3397682 mt paul
mt paul's picture

they are fiat

less than junk

backed by nothing 

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 14:18 | 3396607 Bear
Bear's picture

Hitler was winning also ... until he was losing

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 12:44 | 3396241 Vooter
Vooter's picture

There's no such thing as magic. And you're supposed to understand that simple concept by the age of 15 or so...what's your excuse?

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 10:24 | 3395704 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

New paradigm. Alchemy. Turn lead into gold.

No one is worried, because the rise in asset prices w/ no regard to risk is NOT INFLATION.

It is ... manifest destiny ?

Is this bubble only getting started, awaiting a blow off parabolic top?

When everyone decides all in, not just the manipulating margins, then the pin prick arriveth.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 15:39 | 3396938 angel_of_joy
angel_of_joy's picture

I think they try the reverse move: gold into lead.

Not very successful, so far...

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 11:12 | 3395890 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

As the WaPo pointed out this past week, BB and his fellow Alchemists saved the world. We owe him a great deal of gratitude. LOL. Ben Bernanke is an epic FAIL.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 13:55 | 3396540 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

Red Fox would be so proud!

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:47 | 3397232 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

the problem is benny bucks are being bet on green or shanghi bobby or syracuse to win it all (ok so they have that one)....instead of factories or some other capital investment ....why?????   same answer as always...NO FUCKING DEMAND.....

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 15:08 | 3396811 barliman
barliman's picture

 

Bruce?

No refutation of this article?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-01/list-released-132-names-who-pulled-cyprus-deposits-ahead-confiscation-day

No enlightenment for we poor plebes on how this was justified in order to maintain at least a FEW functioning companies after the Grand Theft Cypriot?

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 18:50 | 3397607 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

Right On Mr. K

that is the perception and it will be self-reinforcing

just wait to the mid-terms and an Obiwon sweep - this run has a bit of life left in it as long as Ben keeps the'junk' coming - it will be high after high

and then it will end

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