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Japan - Too Old To Grow?
The Japanese Social Security system has a report out on the aging problem in Japan (Forbes link). That Japan has a rapidly aging population is an old story, but the new numbers are worth considering.
Japanese Work Force
2010 = 82m
2025 = 71m (-13%)
2040 - 58m (-30%)
Japanese Total Population
2010 = 127m
2050 = 80m (-37%)
Japanese Aged Population
2010 - 11% of population is 75 or older
2025 - 22%+ will be >75 (Double)
I defy any economist to show me a road map for Japan that does not lead to crisis based on these numbers. I don't care what Abe says, or what the new head of the Central Bank, Kuroda, does. It will not matter. As a country, Japan is a long-term short.
Japan's pay-as-you-go Social Security system will rob future worker's paychecks. The cost of medical care for the +75 group is 5Xs that of younger citizens. Budget deficits to pay for all this will have to explode, the national debt with it.
There have been dozens of rallies in the Nikkei the past 23 years. With each rally, the bulls came out and proclaimed that the bottom had been set. The current rally is no different. The thinking by many is that a new golden age for Japanese stocks is upon us. I find that hard to believe. I don't care how much money Japan prints. Those printing presses can't offset the powerful force of demographics, at least not for long.
There are always different views on Wall Street. There are plenty of folks who love Japanese stocks, believe that printing money solves all problems and that demographics don't really matter at all. Time will tell.
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For people that create such great porn and invented socially acceptable "paid dating" with high school teen girls they sure haven't figured out how to reproduce ... If their deflation continues maybe I'll be able to visit there soon. I'd offer them my stud services but I'm a farang and they wouldn't have me ...
Except when they are the immigrants.
Give credit to the younger generations though they are seeing the folly for what it is, problem is they aren't a position to do anything about it yet.
As long as their recently-alive pensioners keep getting their checks, contributing to GDP, everything's copacetic.
"Copacetic"????????
Is that like "acetic acid", or "kaopectate"?
You guys need to stop inventing your own private words here!
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/copacetic
It is a very Southern word, though, so you may not have heard it. My own private version of the word is "copathetic," meaning gettin' along royal.
:D
Sounds all hunky dory and whatnot, or, as Burger Chef and Jeff would say, incrediburgible.
When US 'american' imaginary invented words are placed into viewing, one can not expect less than the usual US citizenism crackedpottery, scrapedgoatery and shenaniganism. Alas, alas, it is what it is.
Blobbing-up the semantic means is only part and package of typical US 'american' offuscationalizing and inability to self-ignite.
We can self-ignite just fine, thank you, akak:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spontaneous_human_combustion
sussed out.
LOL. You outdid yourself. I think I learned that word in the 'owul bidnes.'
Japanese are on the verge of finally overcoming their xenophobia
they are? any evidence
that would be an honest to goodness paradigm shift
There not, truly there not but they are being dragged kicking and screaming. If they have allowed alot of immigration they would have been in better shape.
You are hereby ordered to return to school and learn the proper usage of there, their and they're. While you're at it, include your and you're. If you attended elementary school in the US, don't bother.
Published in 2000:
http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/the-gray-dawn-peter-g-peterson/1013346796
Peterson was the "hockey stick guy" from the 1980s. Always talking his book. The good news is that he's aging as well.
I don't agree 100% with anyone's economics. Few saw this mess coming with 20/20 vision. Peterson was the only one warning hard of a world-wide demographic problem. I read his book. His timeline may be off slightly but he warned about problems in Spain, Italy, Japan and others.
Stockman talked his book as well. Now he is older and wiser: (hopefully we all are) http://vimeo.com/35369616
I have raised this several times previously and usually get "Flamed". No matter becuase ultimately the truth will prevail. The Japanese are the biggest racists on the face of the planet and, with a demographic collapse looking them in the face, they still will not allow increased immigration because of their prescious "Racial purity".
You can ignore reality, but not the consequenses of ingoring reality?
The word "racist" is so pejorative that it's hard to get past that. It is human nature, as it is the nature of so many other living things, to evolve in groups. Human culture (and there ARE DNA forces in play at varying levels of influence) is a lot to do with survival.
If everyone started out as one big mix things wouldn't be quite as exciting as they are. I'm white trash. My wife is Filipino. Clearly things are positive for me; for my wife? (she thinks so- LOL)
"Diversity is the spice of life." I think that says it.
Regardless of the results the Japanese incur in standing their ground of cultural purity, the "truth" and "reality" is that the worlds dependence on the "growth" model to sustain the pyramidal economic theory system is unsustainable and completely baseless beyond the theoretical. It's a finite world with finite resources and as people lose faith in the system as the cracks of lies, corruption and special interests peel away the facade that has hidden away reality, people are going to become even less vested in playing this game of expansion which only serves to reduce the quality of life for the majority while enriching the few.
Besides that, the positive thing about the Japanese approach is that a country of "racial purity" is more likely to weather hard times better in solidarity than a country of diversity that falls on hard times where the facade of "unity" is exposed as a fair weather friendship and everyone begins to blame each other for the decay of society, it's institutions and for each other's loss of economic opportunities as the repercussions of giving favored statuses and social welfare to those (population expanding) immigrants becomes a stability tourniquet rather than a band-aid for slow growth. There are just too many hidden sacrifices to the ignorant attempt to quickly expand the pyramid base of the population to support a badly designed economic system. As one example, in America, the "Hispanics" have now determined that they have population numbers necessary to be the sole influential determinant of which candidate wins the Presidential election and thus have and use the power to make more "special interest" demands of the system and fundamental changes in law enforcement in order to garner their support. Now, if they were slowly and truly integrated into the society properly, they wouldn't see nor classify themselves as a special and unique subset of the society that seek to exploit it's nature of compassion to expand their power. Furthermore, when you let immigration growth become your "quick fix", you're likely forced into a bilingual culture because people just don't/won't integrate that quickly naturally and that further promotes division and animosity which I don't blame them for rejecting. The ignorance of your short sighted quick fix proposal is no different than Bernanke and his solution. It solves the immediate crisis with the guarantee of perpetuating a greater and more troublesome one down the line.
Soon they will need to import undamaged DNA.