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Ireland, You May Very Well Be Bust & I Make No Apologies For What I'm About To Show You

Reggie Middleton's picture




 

 

Ireland, I Make No Apologies For What I'm About To Show You. You have had a banking crisis that nearly wiped you out. In an attempt to save the banking system (potential mistake #1), you brought the bad debt of private, for profit, risk taking institutions onto the taxpayer's balance sheet - twice! You then conducted sham stress tests to placate the public into thinking the worst has passed. Promptly after nearly all of your banks passed these shams, they started collapsing again. Leprechauns don't really exist, and you can't end insolvency with magic and lucky charms. It was at this point you were coerced/forced to accept the outside aid of the Troika and further in debt your citizens as well as endure extreme austerity. Guess what, it's apparently not over - not by a long shot!

I have spent the last week clearly demonstrating how Irish banks could have passed the stress tests yet fail anyway. See:

  1. Global Banking Crisis - How & Why YOU Will Get "Cyprus'd" As This Bank Scrambled For Capital!!!
  2. As If On Cue, BoomBustBlog Shenanigan Research Gets Real In Ireland, Why Aren't These Guys Knocking On My Door?
  3. Are You About To Get Cyprus'd in Ireland? When A Single Word's Worth Billions Of Euros...
  4. Dear Ireland (& AIB), Haven't We All Learned The Problem Is Insolvency, Not Liquidity?
  5. Oh No! Is It Possible? A 3rd Irish Bank With Hidden Charges Not Revealed In Its Annual Reports?

 The gist of this reporting is that it appears as if there was a significant amount of debt and/or encumbrances on Irish bank's balance sheets that was:

  1. Not reported to regulators or possibly stress testers and
  2. Material misstatements and/or omissions regarding encumbrances and debt.

In essence, these banks were not as healthy as they claimed! If one were to add the encumbrances and unreported borrowing back on to these bank's balance sheets, then add this (since the Irish government essentially bought many of them) onto the Irish government's balance sheet, what would we have?

My guess is we'd have a country that was forced to go back to the Troika on hands and knees. Worse yet, we'd have the "Cyprus" style of bank recaps become mainstream with Irish bank depositors losing money faster that a floozy loses virginity on prom night. Below is a very extensive financial modelling of the Irish bailout by the Troika - the same model that was used to generate the subscription documents in Beware of the Potential Irish Ponzi Scheme! This is a level of analysis that is simply not available on the web, but I'm making it available as a PSA (public service announcement) for the Irish people. I invite you to, no... I dare those of you who are in the industry to play with it and add back the levels of debt that has been mysteriously disappeared from Irish bank regulatory statements. Go ahead, and see where the country of Ireland really stands. 

I don't think it will be difficult to ascertain that Ireland may very well need another bailout, of both its banks and quite possibly the motherland herself. After Cyprus, we all know who'll pay for the bank bailout, right?

This app will be available to the public until the middle of next week, after which it will be solely the purview of my professional and institutional subscribers (click here to subscribe). I will place comments from time to time below in the comment section.

If you have believe that the information below actually identifies a gross misrepresentation of fact, omission or outright fraud, simply contact the SEC and let them know that Reggie Middleton suggested they look into it. You can actually use this form to convey my message. For paid subscribers, I've posted another potentially "Cyprus'd" EU bank with shortable US/LSE traded shares/options for subscribers, reference EU Bank Capital Confusion, Part 2 - Malarkey (you may subscribe here). There will be another bank added within 36 hours.

Here's that interest rate calculator from EU Bank Depositors: Your Mattress Is Starting To Look Awfully Attractive - Bank Risk, Reward & Compensation . It shows how much interest you should be getting in return for the banking risk that you are taking.

As a reminder for those who wish to ignore my banking calls as a frivolous episode of Chicken Little, BoomBustBlog is the place that was the first to reveal:

  1. The collapse of Bear Stearns in January 2008 (2 months before Bear Stearns fell, while trading in the $100s and still had buy ratings and investment grade AA or better from the ratings agencies): Is this the Breaking of the Bear? 
  2. The warning of Lehman Brothers before anyone had a clue!!! (February through May 2008): Is Lehman really a lemming in disguise? Thursday, February 21st, 2008 | Web chatter on Lehman Brothers Sunday, March 16th, 2008 (It would appear that Lehman’s hedges are paying off for them. The have the most CMBS and RMBS as a percent of tangible equity on the street following BSC. 
  3. The collapse of the regional banks (32 of them, actually) in May 2008: As I see it, these 32 banks and thrifts are in deep doo-doo! as well as the fall of Countrywide and Washington Mutual
  4. The collapse of the monoline insurers, Ambac and MBIA in late 2007 & 2008: A Super Scary Halloween Tale of 104 Basis Points Pt I & II, by Reggie Middleton, Welcome to the World of Dr. FrankenFinance! and Ambac is Effectively Insolvent & Will See More than $8 Billion of Losses with Just a $2.26 Billion
  5. The ENTIRE Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis (potentially soon to be the Global Sovereign Debt Crisis) starting in January of 2009 and explicit detail as of January 2010: The Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis
  6. Ireland austerity and the disguised sink hole of debt and non-performing assets that is the Irish banking system: I Suggest Those That Dislike Hearing “I Told You So” Divest from Western and Southern European Debt, It’ll Get Worse Before It Get’s Better!

 

 

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Mon, 04/08/2013 - 08:50 | 3421359 stiler
stiler's picture

I don't think the Irish much care for numbers. To come to them from an economist's viewpt may be the wrong approach. What say we turn this into an epic poem or a horse? 

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 06:37 | 3421116 steveo77
steveo77's picture

Don't Worry!   As long as we have our freedoms and Bill of Rights in the USA everything will work fine....unless of course, oh wait that pesky reality.....

Amendment 1, Freedom of Speech, Raped
Amendment 2, Guns, In process of Being Raped
Amendment 3, Soldiers in Houses, Not applicable
Amendment 4, Unreasonable Search and Seizure, Raped

 

Full report on all 10, and the backup reasons, here

http://nukeprofessional.blogspot.com/2013/04/bill-of-rights-summary-of-c...

 

 

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 20:20 | 3420159 steveo77
steveo77's picture
Bill of Rights Summary of Current Status

I have wanted for several months to compare the Bill of Rights to what is really going on in America

 I knew it was bad, but this makes it clear how bad. Here is the summary, and in the below links are the full texts of the amendments and the supporting information on how the amendments are being raped.

Summary of the Bill of Rights (Amendments 1 through 10)
Amendment 1, Freedom of Speech, Raped
Amendment 2, Guns, In process of Being Raped
Amendment 3, Soldiers in Houses, Not applicable
Amendment 4, Unreasonable Search and Seizure, Raped
Amendment 5, Without Due Process of Law, Raped and Droned
Amendment 6, Criminal Prosecutions, Raped
Amendment 7, Right to Jury Trial, Raped
Amendment 8, Cruel and Unusual Punishment, Raped and Tortured
Amendment 9, You have all the rights that aren’t mentioned, No Data
Amendment 10, State Hold all Power Except that Specifically Granted to Feds, Raped

The full text of the Amendments and the rational basis for the judgement above are located here, please check it out and pass it on.   What does it take to wake up the sheeple.

http://nukeprofessional.blogspot.com/2013/04/bill-of-rights-summary-of-c...

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 19:12 | 3419925 monad
monad's picture

Stop calling it the EU. Its the Norman Invasion 2000. TPTP just traded swords for IOUs & crosses for MSM. 'EU' is for the sheep.

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 17:47 | 3419591 digalert
digalert's picture

Best take heed Ireland,

Reggie knows a 'pig in a poke' when he see's one.

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 17:06 | 3419397 Vegetius
Vegetius's picture

Hitting the nail on the head again Reggie. Unfortunatly the powers that be in Ireland will ignore or deride your warnings, the same as the whole of the EU Elite.

“Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something.”

- Plato

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 16:38 | 3419307 poldark
poldark's picture

I find Reggie very hard reading

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 10:02 | 3421645 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Just look at that massive red line in 2014.  That red line means:

1.  Theft of deposits.

2.  Bank common stock crash.

3.  Probable bond haircuts, which are likely going to be pretty large.

Possible mitigating factors:

1.  Ireland gets bailout 2.0, can gets kicked, steeper austerity measures put in place, vicious cycle continues.

2.  Ireland finally attains the balls to leave the Euro currency.

I think bailout 2.0 is very, very likely, probably this year, definitely for sure next year. 

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 10:03 | 3421653 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Note also that bailout 2.0 would only guard the bondholders.  The deposit theft and common stock crash are part of the playbook regardless.

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 15:55 | 3419141 NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

So what you're sayin' Reggie is that:

 

the Irish Bank-Bailout was a SHAM that will ROCK  what's left of the economy...

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 14:32 | 3418903 GoldRetriever
GoldRetriever's picture

A century from now the history books will tell about the "Irish Deposit Famine."

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 15:27 | 3419090 dvfco
dvfco's picture

Could you come up with a joke with any less taste or humor?  

Got any good Holocaust humor, or Hutu/Tutsi jokes?  

Jackass.

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 16:00 | 3419203 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

 

IMHO, suggest you remove the stick from your ass.  (just sayin'...)

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 13:53 | 3418786 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture

Detail are nice but it's the overview (big picture) that matters.

"Capitalism will commit suicide!". Karl Marx

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 13:22 | 3418715 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

 

If Ireland had oil wells it would not have a problem.

 

As it doesn't ... it does!

 

Like the rest of the Europeans, the Irish must borrow to buy gas for their precious cars ... their millions of cars. They must borrow every single day, tens of millions of euros. Needless to say, they are buried under unpayable debts.

 

Nothing more needs to be said ... other than to fix if possible the date when the Irish become car-less.

 

Sooner rather than later ... 2014 or there-abouts.

 

 

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 19:05 | 3419914 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Steve is correct.

Y1990 :  800,000 private cars.

Y2011 : 1.887 million private cars.

 

http://www.transport.ie/upload/general/13673-BULLETIN_OF_VEHICLE__DRIVER_STATISTICS_2011-0.PDF

 

Although its not the best solution expect a eventual devaluation against Sterling to preserve at least some commercial activity within some of the better nodal points.

There can be no hope within the Euro structure.

It seeks to drag us into surplus with a  currency unsuitable for the now rump Irish domestic economy.

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 16:06 | 3419215 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

Moris Berman has a new lecture and is working on a book called

Stagnation or Sustainability? Japan as a Post-Capitalist Model

Interesting theory, but it would never work with the Irish...... lol

http://www.extraenvironmentalist.com/2013/04/02/stagnation-sustainabilit...

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 13:13 | 3418680 Lmo Mutton
Lmo Mutton's picture

He said, "Basically and stuff you know what I am saying, cuz basically, i'm sayin what I been sayin and stuff.", you know what I'm sayin?

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 16:55 | 3419364 IrritableBowels
IrritableBowels's picture

eye eye eye eye eye eye

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 16:10 | 3419230 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

I see reading comprehension is a issue for you.  Perhaps you might want to play with the spread sheets he provided, or are you also "number challenged"?

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 13:05 | 3418669 GoldRetriever
GoldRetriever's picture

Buying the bad debt of Irish banks is what they call "Dublin down."

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 15:29 | 3419099 dvfco
dvfco's picture

Now that's a good one.

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 12:28 | 3418560 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

Apples, pears and peaches. Ireland is a corrupt enterprise, populated and run by gombeen men,

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 13:18 | 3418526 Benjamin Glutton
Benjamin Glutton's picture

.every bank, business and most countries were rendered insolvent in 2008...good thing we had a partial reset,

 

hilarious.

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 11:56 | 3418463 Captnkirk
Captnkirk's picture

one good earthquake in japan and what does it all matter any way

 

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 11:35 | 3418425 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

Reggie - As always, I am impressed with the detailed analysis you present to back up your conclusions. 

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 11:04 | 3418349 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I imagine the President os already in his bunker in preparation for this week.

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 10:59 | 3418334 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Well I, for one, am just SHOCKED, shocked I tell you, that some of the Irish banks may have not reported all their debts or encumburances.

Probably just an oversight on behalf of some junior management people.

There will be a staff conferences to address this problem.

It WON'T happen again.

Trust us.

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 11:05 | 3418357 indio007
indio007's picture

Your winnings sir.

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 16:14 | 3419241 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

Oh, thank you, thank you very very much.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjbPi00k_ME

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 10:50 | 3418311 Scro
Scro's picture

“Very few beings really seek knowledge in this world. Mortal or immortal, few really ask. On the contrary, they try to wring from the unknown the answers they have already shaped in their own minds -- justifications, confirmations, forms of consolation without which they can't go on. To really ask is to open the door to the whirlwind. The answer may annihilate the question and the questioner.”

Anne Rice

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 10:46 | 3418298 DawgAss
DawgAss's picture

 

 

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 08:41 | 3418168 Aquarius
Aquarius's picture

Dear Reggie,

It is over, apart from the details; You are correct and have been consistently. And?

Ireland is collateral damage; the Bankers Rights reign Supreme and the politicians need the Bankers more than the Bankers need the Politicians. The Bureaucrats, of course, obey and protect the Banking System.

Watch, as Entropy strips the largesse from the elites - mais oui, the "unwashed" will pay as "they" are criminalized by those of the paradigm. This time Reggie, it must be definitive.

The snake must shed its skin.

Why the USA and the West in general is in a state of total meltdown:

This also includes the larger parasitical organizations known as the TBTF Banks and other such organizations.

I propose as my alternative theory for the state of impending USA collapse, or the collapse of the West, the well known Theory of Thermodynamics. I offer a brief outline so as not to bore but detailed enough for those interested to research and to consider my conclusions.

Erwin Schrödinger became involved in Thermodynamics, biology, life and complexity of energetic systems before his escape from Hitler and his move to Ireland. The clues are to be derived from Entropy, a term nobody really understands, but ignore, as if they do. Obviously, the 'collective' comprise energy units known as people, and collectives can be considered complexities which make up Nations. A Nation is a super-collective and all can be considered organizations as well as being considered organisms (life).

Normally organizations escape the Second Law that is Entropy which says that closed systems are attracted to equilibrium, otherwise known as, in the case of life systems, "thermodynamic equilibrium" or better "maximum entropy". An organization or organism which is dead or has become inert, failed, lifeless, inanimate has reached this state of maximum entropy. But, life is different, organizations/organisms can escape this state of maximum entropy, and they do by feeding on "free energy" so that their pollutants or exports are minimized in comparison. But the game must continue in this contango; or dance of the devil. Hence the US is / has been increasing its entropy to delay the day of reckoning of maximum entropy, by feeding on outside (its own borders) on 'free energy' or 'exergy' which belongs to others.

The USA does not use diplomacy; the USA uses might and war as well as destruction, manipulation, and genocide etc. to extend its life expectations to acquire its necessary 'free energy' or 'exergy'. I believe that these resources are coming to an end, one way or another, but nevertheless, when this 'free energy' is not longer available to the USA, that organization will meet its maximum entropy.

I believe Hymen Minsky stumbled unknowingly upon Thermodynamics when he stated and I paraphrase, 'stability leads to instability'. Damned right but this fact was well known long before he came on the scene and, of important note, he being almost totally ignored by the Economist Elite of the World, that lot that appear to be driving our comtemporous holocaust du jour, just might ensure that maximum entropy is achieved so much sooner than later. And which promises to be horrific. Does it need to be so?

However saying all this, allow me to add as - hopefully - stimulation, as organisms are attracteed to boredom of the linear gradients, but appear to naturally swerve at the moment of truth to begin feeding far afield of (foreign /alien) exergous 'free energy', just like looting bands of feudal wannabe lords and tyrants of yore, there is a natural driving force here that is being ignored.  Not by Schrödinger et al, but cetainly by those who call themselves the "leadership elite". "Critical Mass" - natural justice, natural physics, an intelligent planet - is the "finger of God" that trigger entropy until Chaos rules supreme. Such things are Principles; Cause and Effect, they occur/ are occuring constantly; why don't we see them?; why does science ignore them? Why don't we validate them, after all, this information has been around in the public domain for around 3,000 years and more, I suspect. Wash and Rinse; the cycle, a new cycle, Era and or Epoch begins.

There is, in conclusion, a vast difference between closed and open systems and such systems may be the preferences of the reader. But I propose that each system of life is neither an open or closed system but a super-capacitor. This fact alone suggests that every collective of life forms, organisms, organizations, nations or whatever, have the capacity to morph life on Earth into something wonderous and magnificent, in a complete contrast to the killing, thieving domination of the political and banker driven organized crime system which we have imposed on us today. 

This planet has limited material resources except in one instance which we chose to ignore; man as a Super Super-Capacitor is the planet's greatest potential resource, if given the opportunity of accomplishment.

Ho hum

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 09:24 | 3421488 BullionTweet
BullionTweet's picture

Thank you Aquarius for your thoughtful insights on Systems and Entropy. I agree that this law applies to all systems based in the third dimension and it is one of the main principles taught to initiates of spiritual pursuit. These laws are much older than the 3000 years you attribute and we humans, who always seem to forget, always get caught in not "seeing the forest for the trees" and remain doomed to repeat... maximum entropy.

 

Please keep your insights coming as to find them here on ZH gives me hope that all is not for naught. Thanks.

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 23:16 | 3420686 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

It's the end of the financial cycle of fiat and make believe finance.  We may go into a dark age where no country trusts another financially.

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 19:29 | 3419988 Izznogood
Izznogood's picture

Let me paraphrase ZH: On a large enough scale all systems are closed ...

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 13:28 | 3418730 Croesus
Croesus's picture

@ Aquarius, et al:

You may have seen this before, but if not, it's worth reading:

http://educate-yourself.org/cn/silentweaponsquietwarsmay79.shtml

 

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 11:20 | 3418394 Optimusprime
Optimusprime's picture

I repled to this comment on another thread.  It is easily good enough to appear on multiple threads.  Good work.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 01:37 | 3420887 JOYFUL
JOYFUL's picture

Good work indeed...and another part of the 'surplus value' ZH supplies us, via random acts of insight...

apparently all but lost upon the peanut gallery who's urge to follow the entrancing hand signals of the majician\entertainer trumps all 'quality of meaning.'

Each to their own.

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 10:43 | 3418289 buckethead
buckethead's picture

I would like to copy paste this at other forums, etc. with your permission.

Brilliantly written.

Will give credit to your pseudonym unless otherwise directed.

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 13:08 | 3418677 Iconoclast
Iconoclast's picture

Why? Whilst I can understand the credit for the research what's the point? Ireland is no poster boy for a troika/IMF style bail out/in, it was and is a non productive Greece style economic basket case that no amount of pre warning investors will help.

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 14:56 | 3418993 buckethead
buckethead's picture

I was referring to the first comment. Comment chains are tough to follow here once may reply within the same chain.

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 10:36 | 3418280 spinone
spinone's picture

Was there a point to that, and I missed it?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 04:09 | 3421026 Itch
Itch's picture

Yes, the point is that he has flipped his lid, move along, nothing to see here.

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 11:07 | 3418362 Sisyphus
Sisyphus's picture

No, it isn't you. It's the school system.

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 11:04 | 3418348 Fuh Querada
Fuh Querada's picture

spinone- was your previous handle "sheepf***er"? The avatar looks familiar.

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 11:03 | 3418346 JOYFUL
JOYFUL's picture

Yeah, actually there was...

since nothing appeared above his lines, except a regurgitated advertorial for driving people to Reg's overpriced and overhyped subscription pitch, he dove in and filled the vacuum...

I believe it's called 'free enterprise.'

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 11:30 | 3418406 Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

Reg's overpriced and overhyped subscription pitch

Of course, since ALL of your other sources have been as accurate as I have been, with content as deep and analytical as above. We all know that the brokers, banks and other sources that you pay commisions, fees, and management sums to have far superior info such as convincing you to lend them money at 70 basis points with the risk of principal loss.


Sun, 04/07/2013 - 13:06 | 3418672 GottaBKiddn
GottaBKiddn's picture

Interesting how ungrateful maggots crawl out from the ample and free of ZH to complain about the "overpriced".

Right on again, Reg. the only part I missed was that Ireland is the "template" for all banks/sovereigns going forward.

And, no the snake will not shed its skin only to disappear, but will simply be unveiling the new, more colorful, and hungrier master. Happy New Age sucker.

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