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No, North Korea Will NOT Start a Nuclear War Tomorrow
It’s easy to make jokes about North Korea. For example, the following 2 photos show the entire North Korean navy:
And this photo shows the North Korean army showing of their entire collection of weapons:
But North Korea’s threat to launch a test missile over Japan tomorrow has raised tensions substantially.
Does this mean nuclear war?
No.
Initially, both Japan and the U.S. are deploying missile defense systems which can shoot down any missiles which North Korea aims at Japan, South Korea or the U.S.
Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel is a steady hand. As long as he is in control of the American response, things hopefully won't spiral out of control from the American side.
Moreover, as crazy as North Korea's threats are, they are arguably in response to massive U.S. and South Korean war games ... which simulate a nuclear attack on North Korea.
As the Wall Street Journal reported last month:
Some U.S. officials argued that the bomber flights would be unduly provocative and akin to recent North Korean actions, which these officials said have irresponsibly ratcheted up tensions. Defense officials acknowledged that North Korean military officers are particularly agitated by bomber flights because of memories of the destruction wrought from the air during the Korean War. [The United States Air Force demolished every target over one story during the Korean War. It also dropped more napalm than it did later in Vietnam.]
***
U.S. officials said they didn't believe North Korea could detect the approach of the B-2s but couldn't be certain. They noted that once the bombers passed over the Korean peninsula, they were no longer trying to hide their presence.
"We could fly it at night, but the point was for them to see it," said a U.S. defense official.
The Journal reported this week:
After a high-visibility display of military power aimed at deterring North Korean provocations, the White House is dialing back the aggressive posture amid fears that it could inadvertently trigger an even deeper crisis, according to U.S. officials.
The U.S. is putting a pause to what several officials described as a step-by-step plan the Obama administration approved earlier this year, dubbed “the playbook,” that laid out the sequence and publicity plans for U.S. shows of force during annual war games with South Korea. The playbook included well-publicized flights in recent weeks near North Korea by nuclear-capable B-52 and stealth B-2 bombers, as well as advanced F-22 warplanes.
The U.S. stepped back from the plans this week, as U.S. officials began to worry that the North, which has a small nuclear arsenal and an unpredictable new leader, may be more provoked than the U.S. had intended, the officials said.
“The concern was that we were heightening the prospect of misperceptions on the part of the North Koreans, and that that could lead to miscalculations,” a senior administration official said.
We are not defending the North Koreans. The leadership lives an extremely lavish lifestyle, while most of the North Korean people are starving.
And the North Koreans are out of line threatening nuclear attack, and ending the peace treaty with South Korea
But given that the U.S. carried out preemptive war on Iraq, took out Libya's Gaddafi, is in the process of taking out Syria's leader, and has long branded North Korea as part of the "Axis of Evil" - and that North Korea has just undergone a transition of power and has a very young leader - many believe that North Korea is acting "mad dog crazy" to try to prevent an invasion by the U.S. ... and that tensions will recede as soon as the annual American-South Korean war games are over.
Like the small dog that rushes up and bites the ankle of the big dog to scare him away - because he is terrified of a real fight - North Korea is bluffing.
Postscript: Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel is a steady hand. As long as he is in control of the American response - rather than people who might have other agendas (and see this) - things hopefully won't spiral out of control from the American side.
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A nutter with a some atomic bombs. What great theater. You couldn't write this stuff.
under W Bush Rumsfeld pulled troops back from the DMZ and reduced troop levels in the country, (mainly out of concern that NK could launch a first strike that would result in many US casualties) Obama hasn't done anything different. Reducing troops levels was an act of provocation, and still is. Once NK breeches the DMZ then the US and UN are justified in leveling the North. Now to the question of China, who stepped in to help NK in the first instance ( 1950s) this a major gamble, that China would give military aid to NK. (This shaped our policy decisions in Vietnam, and as it turned out our thinking was wrong, North Vietnam fought a war with China, after the Vietnam war) Old reality new reality. Among the several reasons W Bush went into Iraq, was to demonstrate that American power can be used decisively, and effectively in foreign theaters, (to take the stink off from losing the Vietnam war) Theres some reason to think they would like to settle the score on this on as well (with China) and that bombing NK and deposing Kim (while China sat by and did nothing) would give the hawks a lot of pleasure, and certainly boost the stock of the POTUS, whose economy is heading into recession, and his own personal capital close to lame duck. Recall the W Bush presidency was pretty much written off until he went into Iraq.
So adding up all the pluses and minuses, settle the issue with China, and establish US allies right to exist in Asia, (Japan, SoK, as well as put some lid on nuclear proliferation in India and Pakistan) and restore POTUS sagging political status. I think its risk ON, 3-2, if only Kim would take the bait.so some form of economic sanctions is necessary. This also plays nicely into their Iran policy, as the mullahs get an object lesson in negotiating with the US on nuclear weapons.
This is Washington DC sheepshit to keep Americans looking outward and not paying attention to what the closer government thieves are up to. Why does ZH even deign to clutter my beautiful mind with this typical low brow Obama MSM propaganda?
"The leaders live a lavish lifestyle while North Korean's are starving."
And the so called developed nations are different?
When you have a young leader and there is a war of words and actions like this, it very well may make aggression possible.
Don't ever underestimate the enemy. The British thought the colonists were no threat either, and look what happened.
When people play with fire, someone is likely to get burned.
+2
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/09/world/navy-deploying-laser-weapon-prot...
http://optimalprediction.com/wp/radioactive-black-fungus-in-japan-blowin...
Is the top picture supposed to be North Korea's version of Washington's blog crossing the Delaware?
If so, then it looks like NK has made it to the late 18'th century in naval technology. Be careful, the blunderbuss is deadly at short range.
As I already mentioned some days ago, I am not convinced, that the Korean regime is not deadly serious about this. It is ridiculous to expect them to cave in, without any result in their favor.
They are between a rock and a hard place, namely between China and the USA. What did the USA offer them? Why should they negotiate with anyone who doesn't give a shit about their starving people, and who's only argument seems to be: "Or else!"?
China aims to make North Korea a "special" province, like Hong Kong, and we all know how that turned out. If the USA, on the other hand, hasn't anything other to offer but letting them go to waste, as soon as they disarm, what choice do they have? If they return to negotiations, they have nothing to expect, except to be split between South Korea and China, just like Poland was split between Nazi-Germany and the Sovjet Union. Yeah, wonderful prospects.
But if they manage to set up a minor war, in which both China and the USA must choose sides, they may finally get an offer of alliance from at least one side. Which is exactly what China and the USA are trying to avoid by all means.
Why would China support North Korea. If they attack South Korea, they will get both USA and China against them.
Mutual Defense Treaty. Archduke Ferdinand didn't have Kim's haircut, but he did have the matching piece of paper.
Tunnels.
Hunger.
Leadership leads a lavish lifestyle while it's people starve. Probably why the US wants to blow it up they are jealous.
Nothing lavish about spending a half a mill to zip out to the coast and back in AF 1. Oh no.
George
lets do this again.
NORTH KOREA = CHINA
SOUTH KOREA/JAPAN = USA
this is between china and the usa. usa - as ever - provokes regional tension. usa exports war. it is good business. Banks and US$ need war.
china said stop.
"Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel is a steady hand"
I wasn't really sure how to take you Georgie old boy, until now. What a hump...
Too bad. It was looking like our only hope.
Team America- World Police to the rescue!
FUCK YEAH! Oh wait, Chuck Hagel runs it now they forced Spottswoode to retire.
Nobel peace prize holding 'dear leader' assures ummm, well, nothing
Matthew 10:34 "Do not suppose that I have come to bring peace to the earth. I did not come to bring peace, but a sword.
Matthew 24:6 You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come
The "sword" in Matthew 10:34 refers to the consequences of not placing Jesus as the first and highest priority. It is about each person's relationship with Him. He does not espouse war, but recognizes that man's nature is to war over the things of the world for lack of trusting in Him.
Do not think that I came to bring peace on Earth; I did not come to bring peace, but a sword. For I came to set a man against his father, and a daughter against her mother, and a daughter-in-law against her mother-in-law; and a man's enemies will be the members of his household. He who loves father or mother more than Me is not worthy of Me; and he who loves son or daughter more than Me is not worthy of Me. And he who does not take his cross and follow Me is not worthy of Me. He who has found his life will lose it, and he who has lost his life for My sake will find it. (Matthew 10:34–39 NASB)
thanks for the clarification actually. i guess i have always misinterpretted it. even reading this version(looking to prove you wrong) i got it wrong at first. i took it more as brother against brother per things like the civil war which pitted family against each other in some instances. kudos to you sir. +1
What!? War is a terrible thing. Some wars are more “just” than others, but war is always the result of sin (Romans 3:10-18). At the same time, Ecclesiastes 3:8 declares, “There is…a time to love and a time to hate, a time for war and a time for peace.” In a world filled with sin, hatred, and evil (Romans 3:10-18), war is inevitable. Christians should not desire war, but neither are Christians to oppose the government God has placed in authority over them (Romans 13:1-4; 1 Peter 2:17). The most important thing we can be doing in a time of war is to be praying for godly wisdom for our leaders, praying for the safety of our military, praying for quick resolution to conflicts, and praying for a minimum of casualties among civilians on both sides (Philippians 4:6-7).
Pre-emptive war a la W, Cheney, Condi and Rummy is a war crime, and they should be in leg irons, not basking in the sun...
The spiritual war started with the fall of Adam and Eve. Once separated from God, the worldly wars followed, starting with Cain putting down Abel. The worldly wars are temporal, however. The spiritual war is the one that counts. Paul conveyed this well in Ephesians 6.
You are my brother, friend. Despite my (often) antagonistic ways, I am first and foremost a (fallible) agent to promote the Way the Truth and the Life.
Me..Me...Me...
It's always about ME with this guy.
Jeez.
U wanna elaborate?
Lot of prognostication and presumption of things you have no way to know. Not sure the intent of the "jokes" - they don't really serve any purpose. Not sure why you believe Chuck Hagel is a "steady hand" (so much so that you put it in twice). Not sure who "we" is when you say "we are not defending the North Koreans."
So is your point that N. Korea is bluffing, or that this whole thing has been escalated by the U.S. and S. Korea war games?
the jokes are getting boring, and most are lame. A discussion on all the players in this game would be nice, not just stale humor or recycled thoughts.
imho there is little appreciation in the US media about how important those yearly war games are for Asians
see the yearly "ballet" production of the Fifth Fleet
there is little appreciation in the US media about how important those yearly war games are for Asians
No disagreement from me. And that would actually make for an interesting article, rather than the salad of unfounded speculation that occupies the space above.
it wasnt supposed to read chuck hagel has a steady hand, but chuck NORRIS
Has there ever been a worse "actor" than Chuck Norris? I mean...have you ever seen Walker, Texas Ranger? Like Steven Seagal, Ed McMahon, and a few others, I don't know how the man was able to make a career on screen.
I'm tellin Chuck what you said... Chuck Norris wasn't born, he made himself!
Chuck Norris doesn't wear sunscreen; the sun wears Chuck Norris screen.
If you have five dollars and Chuck Norris has five dollars, Chuck Norris has more money than you
Chuck Norris always has sex on the first date. Always
There is no chin behind Chuck Norris' beard. There is only another fist
lol. Do you write the scripts for "the Most Interesting Man in the World" radio commercials?
Well, it appears I do not know how to insert an image into comments, apologies....
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-OMdXSu9hcJY/Twd_BHQK83I/AAAAAAAAAnA/Sq0Xqs_DamY/s380/interesting.jpg
Hagel is a steady hand? And you know this after, what, two months in office?
He just means the Delirium Tremens have stopped...
"Calling Dr Phil, Dr Phil, please come up to the podium. Both leaders, Japan and NK, are ready to be analyzed."
If you see the video clip of El president trying to fire the pistol in the pistol photo above, he slaps in the mag and repeatedly tries to fire it without chambering a round. Luckily for the camera crew.
I feel protected by the NWO now that you put it that way.
They are freaked about Japan, Fukushima is heading toward a runaway event.
They don't want to keep their head in the sand any longer.
War soon comes, but not with N. Korea.
Woooooh Jah,
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/09/world/navy-deploying-laser-weapon-prot...
http://optimalprediction.com/wp/
group think is a funny thing, I see most see this as a bluff. Only time will tell.
Thank you.
One does not bluff, when there seems nothing to lose. One bluffs, when it seems to be worth the risk taken. This could also be true in North Korea. A hungry man is a dangerous man, and these people are starving ... I'm not sure at all, that there will be no real nuclear attack. By the way, which peace treaty with South Korea is the author talking of? As far as I know, there has never been one.
Exactly.
I believe that due to his limited vocabulary he meant the armistice, as surely a journalist of his calibre would know there has never been a peace treaty between the Koreas.
On second thought George would know that, were he anything other than a clickbaiter. No journalism to see here. Nosiree.