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Video of the Week: 3 Indicators Same Story

thetechnicaltake's picture




 

This week’s Chart of the Week video looks at 3 very different indicators constructed from different data points all showing the same thing: an equity market that is either vulnerable or already rolling over.  This week’s charts span the gamut from market breadth to investor sentiment to an indicator that measures how well the Fed is doing at inflating the markets.

Yeah, yeah, yeah I have heard it all before that this time is different.  But it isn’t and it won’t be.

So let’s get technical.

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cow4.19.13.3indicators from ARL Advisers, LLC on Vimeo.

 

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Mon, 04/22/2013 - 19:40 | 3485908 hannah
hannah's picture

...so you short the market and the sp500 falls to 300....DO YOU REALLY THINK YOUR BROKER WILL BE AROUND TO PAY YOU...! when we go down, the banks freeze, everything freezes. you will have fantastic balances in your account but you wont see any of it.

 

 

get out now. prep for the downturn....

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 16:29 | 3485342 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Rollover you cotton candy stuffed pig!

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 15:50 | 3485150 Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

The only reliable short right now are PMs. Short gold, buy phyzz. Watch Comex implode. Be happy.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 15:39 | 3485099 WTF_247
WTF_247's picture

The market does not act short.  Almost all metrics can "show" a reason to short it.  However the markets have absolutely no problem moving higher.  We are 2% higher than Thursday and almost 1% higher than Friday.  There is next to no resistance going up.  If we were near a top you would see some resistance.  Funds do not sell - they buy VIX and short ES.  Stocks only move because its index related.  Funds have no fear holding stocks - Ben has their back.  No economic measures, no earnings measures, no global macro measures have even put a dent in the market.

 Sure - we sold off 50 pts from the high last week.  But it immediately comes back - not 3 days later - the very next day, sometimes the same day.  They do not even try to re-test - its V bottom and off to the races.  Almost every day is a massive uphill battle to short anything.  Sectors showing weakness miraculously spring to life, reverse the selling and run higher.  This makes even sector rotation tough.  In the AM they look short, by the close they are not even close.  2 days later they are at new highs.  The buying is always on low volume.  Yet another "indicator" that it should not have legs after such a large push already.  Yet it means nothing. Even the futures markets can hold gains with little to no volume.  Ramp 10-15 on 1/3 normal volume then just tread water the rest of the day.  Low volume never means sell - it means fake sell then reverse and push more.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 16:00 | 3485210 rhinoblitzing
rhinoblitzing's picture

WTF - I agree with most of what you say and BTW it's refreshing to see some discussion of the markets. From a Macro, "Don;t fight the Fed" angle you are absoutly correct.. But... take a look at the charts.

The link below takes you to the DOW 30 stocks - look at the stress and direction of the moving averages. Tell me what you see.

Take a peak at http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AA,AXP,BA,BAC,CAT,CSCO,CVX,DD,DIS,GE,HD,HPQ,IBM,INTC,JNJ,JPM,KO,MCD,MMM,MRK,MSFT,PFE,PG,T,TRV,UNH,UTX,VZ,WMT,XOM|C

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 16:10 | 3485268 Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

Yea, going long now is like picking up nickels in front of a steamroller.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 14:13 | 3484706 Fuh Querada
Fuh Querada's picture

You can span your own gamut as much as you want.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 12:19 | 3484076 luckylongshot
luckylongshot's picture

Time to short the markets big time

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 15:43 | 3485114 WTF_247
WTF_247's picture

good luck.  You have to pick the exact day to go short.  1-2 day early and you will be 1%+ behind on the index.  Since the selling is so limited you now have a locked in loss or at best only a small gain.  Its impossible to short when most selling lasts hours and most rally lasts days.  Just BTFD - you will be far, far happier.  We are already 2% higher than Thursday and holding on low volume.  Tomororw AM I am sure they put in another 10-15 to retrace almost 100% of last week.  Hold it then push more next week.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 12:08 | 3484036 saveUSsavers
saveUSsavers's picture

Very good, thank you

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:03 | 3483768 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The global insanity can last far longer than my personal sanity can sometimes withstand.

<That is why it is best not the play in the fetid swamp, but rather just to seek nearby dry land.>

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