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Gold And Silver To Recover In 2013 - Reuters Precious Metals Poll

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Reuters Precious Metals Poll - Year End Gold Price Forecasts

Gold climbed $15.50 or 1.09% yesterday to $1,430.40/oz and silver finished up 1.00%.

Gold climbed to its highest in more than a week on Thursday, boosted by physical demand from store of wealth buyers globally and from central banks. 

Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkey raised their gold reserves in March, IMF data showed. Central bank gold buying is expected to increase as they see value in diversifying into gold after the recent sell off. 

Premiums for gold bars soared to multi-year highs in Asia after a spate of physical buying ran down supplies, with dealers in top consumer India expecting a surge in imports this month.

Dealers also noted an increase in buying interest in second-largest buyer China, keeping premiums in Hong Kong at their highest level since October 2011 at up to $3 an ounce to spot London prices.

There are growing supply issues and a range of gold and silver coins and bars are in short supply internationally and premiums are rising globally. Many smaller dealers have been cleared out of their bullion inventories.  

Demand had risen after the confiscation of deposits in Cyprus but the significant $200 price drop on April 12th and 15th has emboldened store of wealth buyers who see gold, and silver, as great value at these prices.

Britain’s Royal Mint, established in the 13th century, sold more than three times more gold coins this month than a year earlier as prices declined and sales are more than 150% higher than last month. 

There are reports that certain Swiss banks are also prohibiting clients taking delivery of their gold bullion and will now only settle in paper currency. This in conjunction with the massive drawdown in COMEX gold inventories is leading to concerns of a default in the gold market which is further increasing demand. 

Gold prices are expected to recover in the coming weeks and months according to the Reuters Precious Metals Poll of analysts.

Most of the 29 banking and brokerage analysts and consultants polled expected prices to find support and stay above the $1,400 mark. The majority of analysts, 20 out of 29, expect gold to end 2013 above $1,450 per ounce and 6 analysts, including GoldCore, saw gold above $1,650/oz by the end of 2013.

Interestingly, the majority are bullish at these price levels with average price forecasts for the year of 2013 much higher than today's prices - at a mean of $1596/oz and a median of $1627/oz. 

Many of the banks who were bearish on gold in recent years and spectacularly wrong, continue to be bearish. 

One of the more bearish analysts is ABN Amro who recently defaulted on their clients gold and silver accounts as they will no longer allow their clients to take delivery of their gold, silver, platinum and palladium coins and bars and instead will pay account holders in a paper currency equivalent to the current spot value of the precious metal.

Reuters Precious Metals Poll - Median Forecasts For Average Prices 

The majority of analysts maintain a longer-term bullish outlook, expecting pent-up inflation from the wall of money created by expansive monetary policy to emerge.

Analysts were more bullish on silver after the brutal sell off and silver prices were seen at an average $30.02 an ounce this year, 28% higher than the $23.35/oz which silver is trading at today.

GoldCore April Insight
The recent fall in the price of gold has proved to be a gift to other investors as small denomination bars, at the time of writing, are now difficult to source in India, Singapore, Japan, China and Europe.

In this month’s edition of Insight, Chris Sanders argues that the real issue is that we are not accumulating enough capital to replace depreciating assets, particularly with regard to the production of energy. Accompanying this alarming reality is the apparent reckless abandon with which the banking fraternity in the US is ‘bending’ COMEX’s rules and over in Cyprus, treating depositors’ savings as their own personal safety net.

In this edition of GoldCore Insight you will find out about:

• The Cyprus rubicon - depositors' savings are fair game

• How energy will shape our future

• The importance of owning physical bullion

Download here

NEWS
Gold rises to 1-week high, Central bank purchases aid - Reuters

Gold Advances as Central Banks Join Consumers in Buying Bullion - Bloomberg

U.K. Royal Mint Gold Coin Sales More Than Tripled in April - BusinessWeek

Bullion Reserves Rise in Russia, Kazakhstan for Sixth Month - Bloomberg

COMMENTARY
Video: Forget Gold, Use Silver as Currency: David Morgan – Yahoo Finance

How Bankers Crashed The Gold Market – Again - Mineweb

Gold Retraces Half Of Record Plunge – Zero Hedge

Just What Is Going On With The Gold In JPMorgan's Vault? – Zero Hedge

Comex Physical Drain Accelerates—With Over $7.8B In Gold Disappearing From All Depositories – Bull Market Thinking

For breaking news and commentary on financial markets and gold, follow us on Twitter.

 

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Thu, 04/25/2013 - 13:53 | 3498766 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

it's options expirations end. that's why it's going up, just to be crashed again and rob would-be investors.

Frankly.. who cares about paper prices now? look at EBAY latley?

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 12:35 | 3498299 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Not  good sign, Looks like we have more pain during the ~back to normal~ illusion i.e. end of this year beginning of next year. By year end 2014 though some slight signs of stagflation should appear, which should be the second leg.

Sit tight, hang on.

 

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 12:20 | 3498202 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Interesting gold vs silver charts so far today....appears silver is being driven by some different forces....could it possibly be short covering???????

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 12:04 | 3498116 Keynesian Mess
Keynesian Mess's picture

With almost every financial vehicle, when the vast majority predicts one outcome, you will always make money betting on the other.  The herd is never bullish at the bottom nor bearish at the top

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 12:08 | 3498136 Aeternus
Aeternus's picture

I'm honestly hoping SocGen is right so I can pick up more on the cheap.

 

Hate to say it.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fyklt01lN_I

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 13:36 | 3498666 jjsilver
jjsilver's picture

Don't people find it a little odd that Jim Sinclair is never quoted by this site

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 11:50 | 3498036 emmadavis
emmadavis's picture

When I read the newswires each morning, I scour for trading opportunities...... http://www.investmentcontrarians.com/recession/accounting-usually-create...

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 11:42 | 3497997 clawsthatscratch
clawsthatscratch's picture

i always want to believe the opposite of whatever these fools say

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 11:31 | 3497940 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

Why don't you just ask Ben and Jamie what the prices are going to be later this year?  This would be a whole lot more accurate than guessing.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 11:24 | 3497885 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Recover?  Back to $2000 per ounce of gold?  That would require the US Dollar to fall hard. 

*************

Says who? Are you trying to say they "have" to trade inverse?

http://tinyurl.com/alh8qgp

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 11:58 | 3498073 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Gold and the US Dollar relationship is not mechanical, but there is an inverse correlation, yes.

 

Had a look at your chart.  The one below is a bit more detailed.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/gold-falls-dollar-climbs-vice-versa/

 

There is a lead/lag factor, but essentially, you have it right - inverse.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 12:05 | 3498129 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Gold and the US Dollar relationship is not mechanical, but there is an inverse correlation, yes.

 Had a look at your chart.  The one below is a bit more detailed.

**********

Your chart only goes back to 07..

My point and chart show that from 01 to 05 the dollar and gold traded together-which means the do not have to trade inverse and there has been many times since when panic hits..they both catch the safe haven bid-

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 12:43 | 3498311 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

I came across this monthly chart - Spot USD and Spot Gold.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/spot-gold-monthly-inverse-relationship-...

 

In 2001, the US Dollar reached an all time high, while Gold was at an near term low (20 plus years).

 

In any event, these are correlations and guarantee nothing in the future.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 13:18 | 3498578 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

In 2001, the US Dollar reached an all time high, while Gold was at an near term low (20 plus years).

In any event, these are correlations and guarantee nothing in the future.

********

That chart is USDX and mine was USD/EUR which EUR is the biggest component of USDX-but it shows they can and do trade together-as well as inverse=

and of course... nothing is guaranteed to repeat in in the future-

 

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 14:13 | 3498861 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

On the most recent engineered smashdown when gold dropped 8-9% in one day, the US doelarr did exactly nothing.

That theory holds no factual basis in reality. All fiat is trash longer term and being devalued all the time.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 14:40 | 3498966 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

On the most recent engineered smashdown when gold dropped 8-9% in one day, the US doelarr did exactly nothing.

That theory holds no factual basis in reality

************

Oh really?

The fact that they did trade together for 5 years means nothing huh

btw... mr gold/dollar expert...did you call the crash?

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 15:24 | 3499210 akak
akak's picture

JimmyJames:

 

"Constant inflation-adjusted prices prove that there is no inflation".

Enough said about this guy's credibility, or more precisely, the lack thereof.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 15:31 | 3499239 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Enough said about this guy's credibility, or more precisely, the lack thereof.

*********

You haven't answered my question AK--

How can you sell more securities than there are buyers for?

waiting....

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 15:20 | 3499200 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

I was agreeing with you that the "inverse relatinship" is not accurate.

The USD bulls are so full shit its hard to even take them seriously as inflation eats the value of it every year.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 12:46 | 3498367 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Boris is have theory...

Gold price is not direct causal. Gold is just sit in ground, do nothing, not rust, not change in value, not disappear (except Fort Knox - WTF?),... But is everything else to change around Gold. Price completely subject to externality event and sentiment.

So Dollar is go up or down, combine with other event, cumulative effect is to drive Gold price. If Gold is measure by $US, but Control-P alone is not determine price. However, Control-P + denigration of faith in monetary regime = increase. Add terror (false flag domestic or foreign) or scandal, price is to increase more. Technical indicator method is flaw.

 

But what is Boris know!?

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 13:08 | 3498519 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

When the US Dollar came off the Gold Standard, the US Dollar became "it".

 

If we go back to a gold standard (unlikely), it will likely be done as it was in the past - confiscated gold with a cheap fixed price.

 

Technical indicators are statistics - words like probable and likely come into play and have little to do with certainty.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 13:44 | 3498727 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Statistic only is reveal correlation, not causality. Graph is poor predictor of future, but show past in accuracy, just like rear view mirror. Boris drive watching windshield, not rear view mirror (except is lose license and now must wife drive).

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 11:17 | 3497847 GIABO
GIABO's picture

Barbarous relic my arse!

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 12:39 | 3498316 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Most people is store gold in conventional depository, but okay, whatever is tickle you fancy!

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 11:14 | 3497838 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Recover?  Back to $2000 per ounce of gold?  That would require the US Dollar to fall hard.  And for the US Dollar to do that, the Euro, Yen, Pound and CDN must rocket.

 

Daily spot gold says a different story.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/spot-gold-daily-closes-continues-retrac...

 

Oh, and if the US Dollar falls hard, the S&P500 will head up to 2000 - as the EU GDP shrinkage acclerates - interesting argument, yes?

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 15:34 | 3499226 akak
akak's picture

OrangeNadler driveled:

Recover?  Back to $2000 per ounce of gold?  That would require the US Dollar to fall hard.  And for the US Dollar to do that, the Euro, Yen, Pound and CDN must rocket.

No, all it will require is for the US dollar to continue being debased and devalued, as is being done and has been done for the past 80 years.  As necessarily happens, and is happening, for ALL fiat currencies.

You are once again conflating the US dollar with the US Dollar INDEX --- the two are NOT the same thing at all!  The US Dollar Index is only a relative (and highly contrived and flawed) measure of the US dollar against other similarly depreciating fiat currencies, and it is in NO WAY WHATSOEVER a measure of the absolute value (purchasing power) of the US dollar.

My God, how many times must this elementary fact be point out for you short-term, blinkered currency daytrading idiots to finally get it?

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 15:46 | 3499316 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

NO WAY WHATSOEVER a measure of the absolute value (purchasing power) of the US dollar.

********

LOL

So the +- $600 drop in the price of gold had no effect on the buying power of the $ in relation to the pog?

So you couldn't buy gold for $600 less just a few day ago than you could Aug/12?

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 15:51 | 3499326 akak
akak's picture

What the fuck are you blathering about now?

I was simply discussing the fact that the (constantly shrinking) purchasing power of the US dollar has NO RELATIONSHIP to the fluctuating value of the spurious, artificial, outdated, and highly limited US Dollar Index.  The price of gold has no bearing on the issue at all.

The US Dollar Index may move up and down, but the absolute value, the purchasing power, of the actual US Dollar moves, and has moved for 80 years, in one direction only, and that is downward.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 15:53 | 3499339 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

 The price of gold has no bearing on the issue at all.

************

Really--as bay pointed out above--the USDX did nothing and gold crashed-which means in relation to gold-the buying power of the dollar "increased"

Simple no?

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:00 | 3499378 akak
akak's picture

No, merely more specious and irrelevant twaddle from Jimmy James.

God you are so fucking stupid, it hurts my brain to even try beating any sense into you.

I was discussing the lack of any relationship between the purchasing power of the US dollar and the value of the US Dollar Index --- the price of gold has NOTHING TO DO with either factor.  You could just as easily, and idiotically, and irrelevantly, throw the prices of cocao or sugar or oil into the mix as well, and further illogically muddle the discussion.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:09 | 3499407 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Every time you get backed into a corner you act like a wounded rat-all you do is harp about 80 years of currency depreciation and that is so econ 101 that's it not only a boring subject- it also has little to do with the OG "topic" of the current and future pog-reliative to dollar strength--stay on topic and don't try to maliciously hijack threads with your elementary drivel-

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:15 | 3499438 akak
akak's picture

The need to harp on "elementary drivel" is real and ongoing when idiots like yourself consistenly fail to grasp the elementary.

Now, tell us all again how "constant inflation-adjusted prices prove that there is no inflation".

I rest my case.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:23 | 3499477 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

I rest my case.

************

You can't answer the questions--simple as that--your real colours are getting more transparent every time you post-

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:25 | 3499487 akak
akak's picture

"Constant inflation-adjusted prices prove that there is no inflation".

LOL

Give it up already, you idiot.

You have about as much credibilty here as AnAnonymous.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:30 | 3499500 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

You have about as much credibilty here as AnAnonymous.

************

Until you answer the questions--you have less credibility than both of us-

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 12:39 | 3498308 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Recover!? Indeed, Gold up 300% from 2008, not really is need "recover". Faith and trust in regime of fiat is subject to beg recover.

Reality is hard wall and to hit is pain. But to avoid is death.

(Boris is just make that up:)

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 12:41 | 3498343 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

USD is the reserve currency.  Betting against the US is risky.  Many have tried and failed.

 

Just because the US President is a little odd, does not mean the US follows his thinking.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 12:49 | 3498383 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

"Little odd"!?

Make Putin look like Titan of Capitalism! Amerika is go down with Obama! Smart Amerikan is start work on Canadia immigration paperwork!

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 13:06 | 3498494 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

LMFAO!!!!  Exactly.

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