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The Best Economic Analyst in the World Calls BS on the Recovery
For the last four years, the world has traded largely based on hope of more intervention from Central Banks. That is the single driving factor of the markets. Good news was good news (it’s a recovery!) but bad news was even better (the Fed will have to print more money!) as far as stocks were concerned.
However, against this backdrop several issues began to develop. The single most important one was Copper, which has a great record of anticipating economic growth:
Note that Copper signified an end to the economic “recovery” story back in 2011. Since that time, it’s been in decline. In fact, it’s just taken out its “recovery’ trendline dating back to 2009.
This signifies that the world economy is slowing. This more than anything else shows that the claims that QE and Central Bank money printing generate real economic growth are false. Copper can’t fudge statistics to meet political agendas. It doesn’t lie under oath. It moves based on supply and demand. And demand has been falling since 2011.
Investors take note, Dr Copper is calling BS on the "recovery."
For more market insights and commentary, swing by www.gainspainscapital.com
Best Regards,
Graham Summers
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ooooh yaaaah und jetzt Kile Bass sitzt auf seinem großen Haufen von Nickels, die einen Wert von etwa $ 0,05 je sind. Dies ist nicht gut. Das ist eine Menge Nickels, Hündinnen.
Zeit für ein weiteres Wurst. Bücken bitte, und sagen Feederal Reseeeeeveraah! ...
Estoy de acuerdo con lo que Ud. ha dicho aca.
Teraz, po angelsku prosze.
But, but, but ---- the market is at RECORD highs Graham and your advice has cost your believers a fortune. As I am not a believer, and think that the trend is my friend, I'll just stay long stocks until the trend changes. Everyone knows that inflation is coming and that the presses are in full gear. It's just that the majority are using common stocks based on their REPLACEMENT VALUE as the inflation hedge of choice. That's why you short CASH and dump CASH into stocks until something else works better. Pretty simple, huh?
"What's wrong with all you people?" Nancy said sarcastically. "We have to solve the problem of the sequester as it pertains to the Air Traffic Controllers and then we'll tackle the big problem."
"Oh...I didn't understand." quipped John. "Tell me again, when you say the big problem, are you really meaning the BIG problem...like in reducing the national deficit...or how the economy will survive Obamacare...or how to solve our issues with North Korea or perhaps Iran or maybe Syria?"
Exasperated, Nancy throws her clentched fisted hands down by her side. Shaking her finger at John, she shouts "Are you brain dead....those things are trival? The big problem is to convince the boss that he needs to whiten his teeth."
I remember when I was growing up in the 60's my 4th grade teacher starting talking about how awful things were in the 1930's and how the country was completely broke. Then she explained that Roosevelt came up with a plan: just issue some bonds and have the government spend all the money. Some bright student asked how if the country was broke the bonds could ever hope to be paid off. She explained that the beauty of the plan was that when the bonds came due, Roosevelt would just issue more bonds. It did not make any sense to me then, and still does not. It just kicked poverty down the road to the next generations. Now after 80 years of this, this is the mess we are in.
The real question should be, 'who had the money to buy bonds in 1930s?"
The Keynesian insanity of the Wheelchair Tyrant continues to haunt us today.
I'm sure it was just an Excel error.
We'll find that there was a data error, and we'll see that you don't need copper or any commodity for that matter to produce $100 trillion worth of stuff around the globe.
I'm actually not being sarcastic. Thanks to Bennie and his clown brigade, the economy is free to "grow" forever. As long as we just keep printing cash. Industrial production could go to zero and US GDP would somehow still chug along at $15 trillion.
In Krugmerica you max out your credit cards to buy everything you've ever wanted, GDP positive. When you don't pay the bill, the government will just print away the bad debt because the bank is TBTF. In fact you don't even have to work.
I tried to argue with a Krugmanite, but you can't argue with an idiot. He claimed debt didn't matter and the government needs to spend more to stimulate growth. I said to him, "Well why not give every American a no limit credit card with a .1% repayment schedule."
He replied, "Well you can't do that."
I said, "Why not, debt doesn't matter. Imagine the growth if every single person could go out and buy everything they want and only have to pay back .1% of the balance every month."
He replied, "Well that's stupid. Nobody would get paid for anything because the banks couldn't cover the cost of the credit."
WHOA THE MORON CATCHES ON.
I replied, "No, debt doesn't matter. The banks can pay for everything because they can just add more debt. Some dude goes out and buys $25k worth of audio equipment, a Ferrari, a $50k diamond for his wife. The bank transfers the digital cash to the respective stores and dealers. Then the bank just adds a couple more zeros to the end of the debt on their balance sheet. Ben Bernanke prints up a couple hundred billion more every day to cover the banks debt, voila. UNLIMITED GROWTH!!!!"
I get the, "Shut up asshole" look.
I say, "So debt does matter? Oh, I get it. Personal middle class debt matters but government and corporate debt doesn't. As long as the increase in government and corporate debt corresponds to an increase in the paper wealth of the 1%, then debt doesn't matter. The CEO can go buy a Ferrari, diamond, and massive home theater with debt Bernanke printed, but the commoners can't."
Instead of the "shut up asshole" look, I receive a reply of "Asshole".
FUN TIMES IN KRUGMERICA!!!
You are right! How is it that the stupid people are in charge of monetary policy and the sheeple go along.
And if one is looking for confirmation in the false economic recovery, add to the declining copper consumption, the decline in industrial electrical consumption, the decline in cargo ship freight movement, the decline in trucking freight movement (worldwide) and we get some more of that confirmation that is hard to manipulate, not impossible to manipulate, just a little harder to do...
Want some serious confirmation? check out the Baltic Dry Index over the last 5 years.
Even on a log scale its continued decline is clear.
http://etfdailynews.com/2013/04/12/what-does-the-baltic-dry-index-say-about-the-global-economy/
Poor Obama, it is getting harder to dodge the truth and stretch a fake smile.
"Truth? . . . You can't handle the truth!"
Better still: Harper Petersen - expand it to 10 years, then read how it is constructed. Also read what they say in their charter commentaries.
Yeah - the BDI has been screaming "Shenanigans" since the great tumble.
I'm sorry, but the "BEST ECONOMIC ANALYST IN THE WORLD" is . . . me.
It should just happen that I am in 100% agreemen with not only Dr. Copper but also Mr. Baldick Driindex. I also agree with most findings of Marc Farber and Nassim Taleb.
I have only one disagreement with Mr. Faber who stated he didn't think President Obama would make it through his second term. Obama and Axelrod are among the savviest sleazeballs I've ever seen in my life, and I'm pretty sure their criminal enterprise, temporarily known as the Black Weather Underground Panthers with also bring A.G. Holder, former S. of S. Hillary Clinton and all other cover-up artists through to the finish line.
At that time, we will officially be more like the Soviet Union circa 1984 than East Germany. Our economy will just be weaker, we will actually have fewer personal freedoms and fewer humans capable of thinking above a 3rd grade level. Obama will leave office having convinced 85% of those presently under 38 (and everyone who doesn't remember the USSR and growing up in the 1970s or Great Depression) that the economic disaster was all based upon . . . Capitalism and Free Markets!
I await the black helicopters. Ciao.
I been thinking the very same thing. More or less.
But I'd managed to put it out of my mind for about a half hour.
Thanks for the return to reality and misery.
Need something to amuse myself
Since I seem to see these Phoenix Capital posts on here four and five times per day I'm starting to think zerohedge postings are their main product.
bulk discount
The CME price of copper is quoted, which in addition was taken down along with Au and Ag. If you want to make analyses on that basis you should go back to grade school.
charts and graphs dont mean fuck based in fiat. priced in gold if you have the slightest clue what you are talking about.
Collectively there are some nuggets of wisdom to be found in all those charts/numbers - it's just, which ones are correct & which ones do you trust?
And yet another gee whiz graph. How about trust none of them.
Of course the recovery is BS, but I don't think the relationship of copper prices to the health of the economy is as simple as this article implies. Numerous factors affect the price of copper. Chinese hoarding, futures speculation and mining output are three of many. If copper suddenly goes up, will you say that the economy has recovered? Of course not. This is a silly article.
But Berspanke me is a phd.
absent of central bank intervention, economies naturally go up and down and have recessions. the global economy has been on life support by means of central bank manipulation since 2000+...
what happens when we get a nice fat reduction in government outputs amidst this central bank intervention? they can only hide the numbers for so long. this will CRUSH confidence, and that is when the SHTF. take a look at the top in the S&P. 3 2 1 boom
Hopium is addictive. Withdrawal is a bitch.
There's always a hope that, one day, we'll rate our economy on rational lines - ie, did we make, mine and grow more this month as compared to a month ago? A year ago? Ten Years ago? If we did, then we're doing ok - if we didn't, then things are bad. None of this GDP crap which includes government spending...is the real economy producing the goods that real people need to live? That is the only measure of economic success.
"There's always a hope that, one day, [the derelicts in charge will suddenly decide to tell us the truth]"
Yes, and there's always the hope that Bernanke will turn Austrian and resign to enter a monastery.
As you suggest, GDP is a totally meaningless construct, easily gamed, that is used by the Central Planning Commissars to justify their 5-star compensation packages. Nuke 'em all.
Well, only if we can put them all in some place economically worthless...Brentwood, for instance. We don't want to risk nuking good farming land or some place which has a factory...
The question is still when will this unravel?
Bible prophecy says, As soon as Iran starts the coming War.
Who starts the coming war? Iran? Doubt it. It will either US or Israel who starts it, though a false flag is high probability for cover.
As long as we depend on the "news" for the news, we'll never know.
After almost 5 years, it's become apparent the banks aren't being held responsible for global financial destruction.
Forget banking indiscretions and Wall St. greed/manipulation WITH Washington backing.
The most devastating blow to the American poublic, is when the "news" media started working for them, instead of us.
Private interpretation.