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Is Bernanke Preparing to Jump Ship?
The Fed meets today and tomorrow. The ECB meets on Thursday. Those will be the defining market forces for the next three trading sessions.
There is little if any point in trying to trade this week (at least until Thursday). The Fed is notorious for leaking info to the well-connected. The most recent “accidental” sending of a report a day early is just the latest example.
In simple terms, the market will be even more of an insider’s game today and tomorrow than usual. No point trying to open a new position in that window.
However, against this backdrop the big picture for the markets is growing worse and worse.
The US is almost assuredly back in recessionary territory. This is coming on the back of the weakest recovery (if you can call it that) in post-WWII history.
The Feds hide this economic nightmare by simply not counting those who are unemployed (lower the denominator in the fraction and your unemployment ratio falls), and by using bogus deflators in their GDP growth numbers (the current CPI is 2.1%... but the Feds calculated the first quarter GDP growth numbers use an inflationary measure of 1.2%).
Change your measurements and BOOM you’ve got a recovery. It works if you’re a Government bean counter trying to keep your job. It doesn’t work so well for everyone else.
However, there are clear signs we’re heading back into recessionary territory. I think the first quarter 2013 GDP growth print is the best we’ll see all year. And it’s very possibly things will get ugly before the year ends.
Speaking of which…
Ben Bernanke has announced he won’t be attending this year’s Jackson Hole meeting. A Jackson Hole meeting without the Fed Chairman is like having a performance of Hamlet without Hamlet himself in it. Why would the single most important Central Banker not attend one of the biggest economic meetings of the year?
He claims it’s due to scheduling conflicts. As if he didn’t know about this meeting in advance.
The fact is Bernanke is likely going to step down at the end of this term in January 2014... which means the markets will be losing one of their biggest props, the famed Bernanke Put.
God help whoever fills the role in the future. Assuming things hold together until next year (a BIG assumption) the new Fed Chairman will be inheriting one of the worst messes in history.
For more market insights and investment ideas… visit us at www.gainspainscapital.com
Best Regards
Graham Summers
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it would be partisan fight, and obama would compromise, probably by selecting someone who appeals symbollically to the critics of the fed, but who would perform his duties in loyal bureacratic fashion to the encumbency. the debt ceiling really only matters to the party who trying to broach the limits.
Bernanke will resign Dec 31. Obama will make a recess appointment. No debate.
He needs more time to find a black to fill the post!
Dec 23, 2013 will be the 100 year anniversary for the unconstitutional establishment of the Fed (the congress cannot assign to others what it's responsible for under the Constitution).
I wonder what they are planning for their centennial birthday party?
what they are planning for their centennial birthday party?
Champagne & caviar beneath a giant banner displaying their accomplishments: Devalued the US currency 96%, one great depression, one great recession, kick started two world wars, dozens of regional wars, $17 Trillion in national debt, brought nation and world to the brink of financial collapse and WW III. Go squids!
My dog would like to be considered for the post.
One bark means 'print.' Two barks mean 'print more.'
what happens when the dog takes a crap? i get it, he wants to go for a walk, SELL YOUR STOCKS
"God help whoever fills the role in the future."
Always looking for a "greater fool", aren't we?
Bernanke is a douchenozzle, a piece of smoldering dogshit, a shitstain on the american people
A shitstain in the toiletbowl of life.
Yellen is up next. The inept follows the incompetent.
Raban softens them up for Fayd.
Sounds like you have something against Hillary Clinton. The next Fed head doesn't need talent. It only needs to be stupid enough to take the job and willing to do whatever a collectivist wannabe dictator tells it to do.
The Fed will probably die outright sometime during the next 4 years, the better to take the debt with it. I can imagine the creation of a good Fed/bad Fed to sweep the debt into a black hole, just like they do with failed banks.
Makes for a real easy job spinning their incompetent tales of plausible deniability.
"Did I do that?
Actually it's Fed protocol -- let the next Chair-designee be the featured speaker at J-hole.
Just as young Ben made a rock star appearance at J-hole in advance of his nomination.
Like electing a new pope, choosing the next Counterfeiter in Chief has its mysterious rituals.
Don't be surprised if attendees show up wearing stupid buttons that say, "I'm Yellen' for Janet!"
"Like electing a new pope,..."
Should we be on the lookout at J-hole for white smoke?
I'd be worried about white powder.
Damn it Janet, you're a slut.
I like this post more than all of their other ones.
The Bernanke Put will quit before the man himself. Q3 going to be epic. Watch this space. [maybe not the first bearish call, but this one for the win ;-) ]
QE3? How are you counting. I have us at QE4 and QE5 probably is in the can and arrives soon.
"Third calendar quarter"
I also give this balancing act 6 months more to live. The Cyprus thing was a major signal that the jig is up.
No idea what 2014 will open like. Guesome, most likely.
I think there's a dispute on wether QE3 was replaced by permanent QE4 or it simply never ceased.
Francesco Schettino
Meg Whitman is said to be up next for the Chairistan's Throne. The USA will get a discount on green ink and HP Printers.
No, it'll be another Survivor of the Babylonian Captivity: Janet Yellen.
Next Fed Chairman - MARKET LATEST
2/1 ~ Janet Yelen
5/2 ~ some n00b
3/1 ~ Paul Krugman
7/2 ~ an algorithm based on the combined lives of Keynes and John Wayne in True Grit.
8/1 ~ Timmeh G
10/1 ~ Charlie The Wonderdog
16/1 ~ Jamie D
20/1 ~ His name is Robert Paulson
33/1 ~ Weekend at Bennies aka The Corpse of Alan Greenspan
50/1 ~ Fed shits the bed, ends.
It was the sage Jim Sinclair who immediately saw that Bernanke in effect announced his coming departure, and was washing his hands of the whole central bank business, after the Cyprus depositor confiscation
As Sinclair sees it, Bernanke was horrified that the Troika - EU totally ruined his several years of work in trying to keep the Western financial system afloat somewhat longer ... Faith in bank deposits was key to keeping the Ponzi going a few years longer, and now that is gone, the collapse and reset will happen much sooner.
Right after Cyprus, Bernanke started speaking like a man who was quitting, he said lots of other people could do his job ... and the Jackson Hole absence confirms it
Indeed, Bernanke abandoning ship ... but it was the EU and Troika who blew the big hole in its hull
Ben's like 'that guy' in the 'Nam movies. The one running around telling everyone "I'm short baby. I'm short." The guy who always gets wasted the days before he's set to rotate back to the world.
More like the guy who has set all the charges in the building and doesn't want to stick around to watch the detonation from the inside...Isn't the FED charter up at the end of 2013?
Even he realizes he won't be a suitable choice for the same position at the Global FED that they plan to rise out of the ashes of their arson.
Something about firefighters smelling suspiciously of gasoline or at best 'as functional around the firehouse as a congenitally deaf dalmatian'.
Brussels - I would have given you an up arrow, but apparently ZH thought you'd had enough for one day.
So +1 from me.
Bank Guy,
You're saying that the Troika is more powerful than the Fed. Up is down and down is up. Reality is gone in my world.
No not more powerful. But what is called "The Prisoners Dilema" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner%27s_dilemma
Multiple players have to all play together willingly or the whole thing falls apart. EU did their thing to confiscate deposits, which then highlighted the same game plan has been worked into place around the world by various governments. Secondly, Japan's change in policy in order to inflate their way out of their problems. So, not just the EU. The "Club" has disintegrated.
makes perfect sense....well done
Like rat is jump ship.
Why is ZHer to give Boris Down-Arrow!? Boris is make derogatory for Rat and is offended!?
Bo' man, you're givin Rats a bad name. i still upped you though. glad to see the Rosetta Stone is workin for ya too.
Boris - Krugman just reported to work
Doctor Paul Krugman is rat? Boris believe Doctor Paul Krugman is not so evolved - maybe is louse parasite feed on back of rat?
Now you're giving The Plague a bad name Boris
Dear Boris, just know that these babylonians HATE us all...world-wide.
Those that show this kind of blatant negativity are the true enemies of America, and also the good Russian folks too. Can you imagine if ALL the good people in Russia got together with ALL the good people of America, and went after these babylonians and eliminated them ALL from the face of the earth. Truly, the enemies of both great countries are the same. Might be a good planet to exist on after all the bankster babylonian criminals, and the owned minions that make war using deceptions, lies, and disinformation are cast overboard, eh?
Why is he not attending?
He's got a scheduling conflict FFS.
maniacal laughter