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It's Not Just Reggie Warning Irishmen Anymore As Irish Presidency of the European Council Says Capital At Risk

Reggie Middleton's picture




 

 

Kiss Those Euros GoodbyeKiss Those Euros GoodbyeAs of today, all of the puzzle pieces for an Irish government cum ECB via Germany confiscation of Irish bank depositor money is in place. The first piece, Irish bank insolvency was clearly identified and articulated in "If I Provide Proof That The Entire Irish Banking System Is A Sham, Does It Set Up A Much Needed System Reboot? Let's Go For It... I drove the point home even further as the Irish PTB start to admit that their banks need to be recapitalized, in "The Beginning Of The Great Irish Unwind?!?!?!". The second piece of the puzzle is the political will to actually sacrifice bank depositors, clearly illustrated in "As Forewarned, The Irish Savers Have Just Been "Cyprus'd", And There's MUCH MORE "Cyprusing" To Come". Now as of today, we have the final piece, the legal mechanism - which allegedly is just being debated but in reality is already in place. The template has already been established with Cyprus, ala "EU Bank Depositors: Your Mattress Is Starting To Look Awfully Attractive - Bank Risk, Reward & Compensation".

The Irish are about to see their deposits above the 100k euro insured limit hit risk heretofore unseen. You see, weeks after my many warnings of Irishmen and women at financial risk, the Irish presidency of the European Council put forth a proposal to do just what I warned of ahead a key meeting of finance ministers next week. Whats of even more importance is the fact that, as in Cyprus, EU states have NOT ruled out the possibility of confiscating bank deposits below the EU insured limit of 100k euro. This means that there is far from a AAA credit covering your deposits. It almost happened a month or so ago, and nobody wants to rule put the potential of it happening again. Now, on to the news piece that has confirmed my many warnings, the last piece of the puzzle - from the Irish Times: Bank deposits of over €100,000 may be at risk...

Deposits of over €100,000 are likely to be hit in the event of future European bank collapses, according to a proposal put forward by the Irish presidency of the European Council ahead of a key meeting of finance ministers next week.

Discussions on the controversial bank resolution regime, which is likely to see savers with deposits over €100,000 “bailed in” as part of future bank wind-downs, are due to intensify this week in Brussels, ahead of Tuesday’s meeting, which will be chaired by Minister for Finance, Michael Noonan.

Under a compromise text proposed by the Irish presidency, uninsured deposits of over €100,000 would be bailed in in the event that a bank is resolved, but depositors would rank higher than other creditors in the event of a wind-down. In this scenario – known as “deposit preference” – depositors would rank at the very end of the process, with other creditors first absorbing losses.

"In this scenario – known as “deposit preference” – depositors would rank at the very end of the process, with other creditors first absorbing losses." Absolute non-sense. Simply smoke and mirrors for those who don't know any better. The only reason for there to be a wind-down in the first place is that there is no equity left in the bank. With gearing in the European banking model what it is, and the dearth of transparent (non-fraudulent) reporting what it is (see If I Provide Proof That The Entire Irish Banking System Is A Sham, Does It Set Up A Much Needed System Reboot? Let's Go For It...), the chances of there being any recovery is somewhere between zilch and nil, give or take a euro or two - reference LGD 100+: What's the Possibility of Certain European Banks Having a Loss Given Default Approaching 100%? and The Anatomy of a Serial European Banking Collapse to realize that once a counter party driven bank run starts, there may be less than nothing to divy up in the end. Lehman Brothers' US creditors received roughly 10 to 40 cents on the dollar, but after 5 years of wrangling, the European International arm was full repaid. Hey, do you feel lucky with your life savings? Even if you do feel lucky, you'll still need 5 years to spare and a ton of cash for legal fees.

However, some member states have not ruled out the possibility that insured deposits, i.e. deposits under €100,000, would be forced to bear losses in the event of a bank collapse even though these deposits would be likely to be protected by the deposit guarantee scheme.

As stated earlier, this ain't AAA coverage!

This year Jeroen Dijsselbloem, head of the group of 17 euro zone finance ministers, said that losses on bondholders and depositors could form part of future bank bailouts as euro zone officials seek to move the burden of bailouts away from taxpayers – as was the case in the Irish bailout – and on to private investors.

The European Commission argues that this switch from so-called “bailouts” to “bail-ins” would result in an allocation of losses that would not be worse than the losses that shareholders and creditors would have suffered in regular insolvency proceedings that apply to other private companies.

Ahem, that non-sense only works on the uneducated and/or the unassuming. The major difference is that creditors that would be subject to regular dissolution proceedings AND that are unsecured, would demand considerably higher rates of return. A borderline solvent bank whose officers AND regulators admit publicly is in need of additional capital infusions after receiving three thus far, and 96% losses in its publicly traded equity, would have to borrow money at 18%, not 2% - and that's being generous. See the bank deposit rate calculator below.

While the inclusion of large savers in future bank bailouts is now widely accepted, significant differences still remain between member states.

While the new rules governing bank resolution were first intended to come into place in 2018, since the Cypriot bailout there have been calls from senior EU figures such as European Central Bank president Mario Draghi and EU economics affairs commissioner Olli Rehn to introduce the new regime as early as 2015.

The Irish presidency of the European Council is hoping to reach a common position by the end of next month.

The little app below calculates what return you should expect to receive to take on the risk of a potential 40% haircut. The second tab offers what recent Cyprus bank rates were. Do you see a disparity???

 Other hard hitting pieces on the resurgent EU banking crisis

 

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Wed, 05/08/2013 - 16:16 | 3542424 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

If anyone would have told me the Irish would take one up the ass (capitulate) in the name of EU austerity i would have lost my shirt! Watch out Cypress is cypress but Ireland is Ireland. Fuck that for a game of soldiers and a top of the morn bejesus. Cambo&Ozzie flak jackets ready. Awaywitya

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 13:14 | 3541681 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Not to worry -- London will make sure the Irish get theirs.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 12:58 | 3541616 Element
Element's picture

Sheep get shorn ... unless the wolves get there first ...

They should be greatfull if the shepard gets there first ... and 'protects' them ... from worse ...

 

 

 

Lamb and mint sauce tonight bitchez ... we're gonna to need a bigger BBQ ...

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 12:02 | 3541386 W T F II
W T F II's picture

REGGIE, REGGIE, REGGIE....the crowd is going wild....REGGIE, REGGIE, REGGIE....he strides to the plate....REGGIE, REGGIE, REGGIE....now in the batter's box....REGGIE, REGGIE, REGGIE....he points the tip of his bat towards center field....REGGIE, REGGIE, REGGIE....the crowd is now on their feet as the pitcher goes into his wind-up....REGGIE, REGGIE, REGGIE.....he swings at the first pitch....CRACK....!!!

See, Reggie, the issue is their is NO template in the EZ. In Cyprus you lose, in Holland and Germany you win. It all depends on how "they" decide to treat you at the time....But, likely the Irish depositors will get sheared, as you portend....

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 11:54 | 3541356 Thisson
Thisson's picture

Depositors are holding securities that are like the opposite of convertible bonds:  in the event of the bankruptcy, you're forced into the equity position; in the event the company does well, you're getting tiny coupon payments.  What a crappy deal.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 11:55 | 3541327 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

The goal of the eurosystem seems to push real resources ever higher (beyond national borders) using monetary means.

 

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amsterdam_Entrepôt

 

In reality this means less oil consumption in the periphery so that the core can burn more for its global entrepot activities.

 

This is why European primary & basic secondary production & consumption has been in decline (disguised by the North Sea) since at least 1980.

 

The scale , Ambition and pure evil of this euro market state venture is sometimes hard to grasp ............its almost non human.

 

I imagine people thought much the  same way when the same banks created the post 1648 world of banking nations. (destroying tribes)

If they survived  - People became islands - cut off from their previous reality.

 

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 11:36 | 3541281 Nehweh Gahnin
Nehweh Gahnin's picture

My cousin was up this past weekend.  He's worked for one of the larger U.S. mining companies for nearly two decades, and was trying to get me to come on board.  Was telling me about how he doesn't buy any PMs, and doesn't even buy his own mining stock.  He prefers his Fidelity investment accounts.  "Have you seen the market?"

Ummm, yeah, and I liquidated mine in '06.  Tried to talk to him about ZIRP and NIRP and the nature of inflation.  Bubbles?  Heard of Cyprus?  Huh?

"Obama's a muslim."   Ding ding ding!  We have a winner!

I got myself another mimosa and moved to a different conversation.  

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 20:02 | 3543061 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

I haven't seen any evidence that suggests that Obama is at all religious, either Muslim, Christian or Jew or anything else.

Obama/Soetoro is a puppet that's just out to get his, and so far he's done well for himself.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 11:07 | 3541150 Devotional
Devotional's picture

No matter how much I explain to people what is happening no one listens and actually look at me as if I am a conspiracy theorist. What else can one do to wake people up to this fact - we will be cypused? There is enough evidence what is going to happen but why are people not taking precautions? I question myself the following: "how big must the f-ing piano be???".

Actually, as a society engulfed in facebook and superficiality, they deserve what is coming. Fuck it!

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 11:26 | 3541243 css1971
css1971's picture

Been there. You can't tell em. They'll act all surprised when it happens too.

Just save yourself & keep away from them.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 11:34 | 3541270 Devotional
Devotional's picture

When I tell them to buy Gold and Silver Bullion I get a "pffft, what can I do with that?". I proceed to explaining why but get a cynical grin/look. You are right though, it is time to save ourselves. This ship is going down, it is a fact. When will it sink completely? Time will tell but the signs are all here already. Keep stacking, keep safe and stay informed.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 11:28 | 3541209 WAMO556
WAMO556's picture

This should be a good answer:

Matthew 24:37-39, “But as the days of Noah were, so shall also the coming of the Son of man be. For as in the days that were before the flood they were eating and drinking, marrying and giving in marriage, UNTIL the day that Noah entered into the ark, And knew not until the flood came, and took them all away; so shall also the coming of the Son of man be.”

And...

It had never rained, not even once prior to the flood!!!

ALOT of folks are going to get Burned!

And...

There is nothing MOAR dangerous then a johnnycomelately who gets IT after the problem starts.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 11:17 | 3541198 Deo vindice
Deo vindice's picture

I long ago realized I am not responsible for people's reaction to telling them the truth. I am only responsible to give a fair warning and they must choose for themselves.

This is actually Biblical. According to Ezekiel 33 a watchman is only required to warn of the danger. He is not accountable for the response to that warning.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 11:22 | 3541227 WAMO556
WAMO556's picture

The responsibility is in the telling. Once said, the onus is now on the receiver on what to do with that information!

Well said

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 11:07 | 3541148 polizeros
polizeros's picture

Could this happen in the US? Possibly. However, there are 300 million guns in the United States. Were we to wake up one morning and find the banksters had stolen our bank deposits, I'm guessing more than a few of those guns would start being used by a bunch of cranky, maladjusted, paranoid conspiracists who refuse to take it up the ass from the banksters. Just saying...

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 13:29 | 3541703 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Guns without ammunition are not much of a threat.   "Cranky, maladjusted, paranoid conspiracists who refuse to take it up the ass", aka "The Tearists" are already in The Big Database and The Forces of Freedom and Democracy are ready to deal with them as necessary.  Boston was only practice.

I wake up every morning to find the banksters have stolen a bit more of my retirement savings with their ZIRP. I don't see that many of my fellow victims protesting very much. TPTB have many henchmen very skilled at the science of mental conditioning that will convince us that separation of us from our savings is "for our own good". Most of us will accept their explanations, because "our government would never lie to us" (unless it was necessary for national security).

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 11:33 | 3541268 Mi Naem
Mi Naem's picture

Virtually no one will use their guns. 

Guns will be confiscated just before we have almost nothing left to lose, at which point we might otherwise have been willing to use them. 

Perhaps that will be the sign of the imminence of the great crash in the USA. 

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 11:27 | 3541247 css1971
css1971's picture

They're not your bank deposit's they're the bank's deposits. You got an account book in return for your investment.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 11:59 | 3541376 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Funny how people fail to understand the fact that they don't have your money. They just promise it back to you, eventually.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 11:11 | 3541167 WAMO556
WAMO556's picture

That is why these politicians are so hot and heavy with getting MOAR gun control passed.

Remember it isn't about GUNS!!

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 11:07 | 3541142 WAMO556
WAMO556's picture

We know that Ms Christine LaGarde doesn't pay a cent in taxes, because even though she is a filthy banker, she considers herself a DIPLOMAT!

Imagine that!

What else is she hiding?

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 11:03 | 3541129 WAMO556
WAMO556's picture

So the banks are insolvent, the governments know that the banks are insolvent, and are willing to hold the people (depositors) accountable for the banks, bank officers and politicians decisions. Are these folks (aforementioned) going to also lose their money as well? Because if they don't, then they are THEIVES!!

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 11:04 | 3541109 OneTinSoldier66
OneTinSoldier66's picture

I wouldn't exactly know since I'm not old enough, but somehow I get the feeling that banking just isn't the same as when gold and silver coinage was used. I've heard that back then a bank run actually meant something. "Out of thin air" Central Bankers seem to have made TBTF bank runs meaningless nowadays.

 

Bring back the bank run!

 

Or heck, maybe we don't even need banks or bankers! All I do know is we sure as heck don't need what we have today, which is what I like to call banksterism.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 11:19 | 3541207 Deo vindice
Deo vindice's picture

You are right. Banks are only needed if you want to live a debt -based life-style. First they have to convince you of the need to be in debt. Then you 'need' them.

Live debt-free. Get rid of all credit cards. Pay cash. Preserve your wealth in a form that has no 3rd-party risk.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 11:01 | 3541108 aleph0
aleph0's picture

..." as euro zone officials seek to move the burden of bailouts away from taxpayers " ....

 

bEUrocratspeak for ... "to the taxpayers that are still solvent."

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 10:56 | 3541089 Vegetius
Vegetius's picture

For greed all nature is too little.

-          - Seneca

Really enjoyed the report Reggie, the Irish banks are broke the Irish Government is getting desperate. The best hope they have is going after the Leprechauns and their stash of Gold. The lies they have told are haunting them for the next elections and their pensions not being paid is a horror they are waking up too.

“Three great forces rule the world: stupidity, fear and greed.”

? Albert Einstein

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 10:38 | 3541000 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Well somebody has to clean up the elephant shit after the parade.

Grab some of those guys on the sidelines.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 10:21 | 3540904 new game
new game's picture

corzined, cyprussed all the same-bend the fuck over and take your medicine for being so stupid as to leave your money in an insolvent system.  financial darwinyism...

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 10:19 | 3540898 irishlink
irishlink's picture

You are wasting your time and energy. Nobody cares anymore as we are all sadly reaching an awareness that we are not living in a democratic state any longer. The Irish sold their souls to a system that takes from the fools to fill the coffers of people at the very top of the chain. Bad weather, bad governance, bad economy and hard masters. The more things change, the more they stay the same. C"est la vie !

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 10:10 | 3540855 toadold
toadold's picture

I wonder how many really big depositers in Irish banks have snuck their money out ala Cyprus.

Also things in Ireland are liable to be a lot more volatile if those small and middle sized depositors feel robbed.

They have gone to war before over less.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 10:10 | 3540849 Sofa King Confused
Sofa King Confused's picture

Reggie,

Do you think when this comes to the U.S. they will keep the FDIC rate at 250 k or do you think they will drop it back to 100 k? Thanks

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 10:43 | 3541030 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

I think you won't have to worry unless you have more than $1.17 in your FDIC insured account.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 09:51 | 3540750 Ancona
Ancona's picture

All your money are belong to us bitchez! Now shut up and get back in line at the ATM, we're going to allow you to pull 100 euro for now.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 11:11 | 3541166 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Dumb ORish sold into EU and Euro slavery by those tax cheating f*xx Bono and U2.    Retards.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 18:10 | 3570933 Popo
Popo's picture

The Irish are well accustomed to being a vassal state.   No fight in them.

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