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Stocks Are Officially in a Blow Off Top
Stocks are officially in a blow-off top.
This is the culmination of Bernanke’s life’s work. In his mind he has succeeded in saving capitalism by spending trillions of Dollars pushing stocks higher.
It doesn’t matter that the US hasn’t experienced 3% GDP growth a SINGLE year since he took the Fed.
It doesn’t matter that the employment ratio is at levels last seen back in the early ‘80s. It doesn’t matter that there are now a record number of Americans on food stamps.
All that matters is that stocks are up. That equals a recovery for the Fed.
This whole mess is sad really. Having seen two bubbles burst in the last 13 years, we all know how this ends: in disaster. And each time the disaster has been bigger. Indeed, the 2008 collapse was a far worse thing than the Tech Crash.
And what’s coming will be even worse than 2008. This time around, entire countries will go bust, not just banks.
On top of this, when this bubble bursts, interest rates will already be at zero and the Fed’s balance sheet swollen with garbage debts. The Fed and other Central Banks WON’T have the usual tools available to save the day.
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Best Regards,
Graham Summers
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Really? You think the market is going to crash with the FED easing like they are? I don't think so. Stocks will keep going up, and eventually commodities, especially precious metals, will follow with a ruthless vengeance. When that train leaves the station, you know the end of the world as you know it is near.
You must write in quatrains, if you want us to believe you really are Nostradamus (reincarnated/reanimated/reborn).
Obscure ones at that. Preferably with a multitude of interpretations.
Bitchez love that shit.
I'm looking for DOW 36,000 before I sell everything.
My dog craps better stuff than this
Hey he was busy, it was a slow news day, he had writers cramp, have a heart. I think its pretty good-going for a guy who swore up hill and down dale there would be no more QE and that Europe had collapsed completely, LAST SUMMER, it's gone, no trace of it, nada, Elvis-Von-Euro has left the building.
Little sad for you....5 years of sad. 5 moar to go.
"Stocks Are Officially in a Blow Off Top"
So, what office exactly has the responsibility of making this "official"?
The same one that uses the word "literally" without realizing their statement is really figurative.
At least those are usually good for a laugh.
I've been waiting for the blow off top but don't exactly trust Graham's call. How about you Tyler, you've got more street cred. Does this look like an official BOT? Kind of does to me but what do I know?
I'd like to hope that Tyler is smart enough to resist making market calls in an obvious NON-market. (Even though the occassional "spot the odd chart out" makes for good reading)
Sigh, it isn't official until it happens.
It isn't official until they deny it.
They are denying it. Haven't you heard, the economy is beginning to roar ahead. Why just next year we are forecasting 6% growth and 7% to 10% the next 4 years after that. That's a firm denial that the top is in.
Just keep rebalancing your portfolio to lock in the gains and don't be greedy.
The market goes up and down, as long as you can avoid being in a place where you have to sell, bubbles don't matter too much. Given a long enough time line, the market will recover.
Even if you "win," you're still all gonna get Corzined. Then there's the DTCC, who owns every actual share of stock in the markets, leaving you an unsecured creditor.
As soon as the few remaining carbon-based traders start running for the exits, you can bet they'll be sealed in a millisecond.
Perhaps today's "QE Off" tweet was merely an attempt at identifying where these non-club members are?
Dark pool squeezins. It's what's for dinner.
we few, we happy few, we band of silver holders . . .
You'll be barebequed by the mob. Your silver will remain as a melted lump beneath your burned out dwelling until the Sun goes supernova.
"You'll be barbequed by a mob of starving aerojets."
Fixed it for ya. Don't mention it.
You can try and burn it down with all your piles of fiat's but you'd be too late. I lost it all last year in a unfortunate boating accident...
Maybe you guys can jump in a lake and go find it for me. I'll supply the breathing hoses for you all, don't worry, I'll be happy to do it at NO CHARGE...
Hey Phoenix Cap...I agree with most of your points but how much AUM do you have left?
Little early on the blowoff top because you'd actually have to see it going down. It's coming though and I do believe very much when we least expect it.
It'll probably happen soon after an announcement of "good" news. Some pre-market news, Dow futures up 200, market opens, runs to Dow +300, and then it begins to sell off, once all hedge funds are all in. Dow will finish the day -100 to -200. Then between the close and next day open, some real "bad" news to justify a big drop. When the market opens, it'll be too late to get out without losing a bundle.
They could try to skip the first part of that but I would think they'll go for the last drop of blood before pulling the rug out.
When a market slams down (like gold did recently) you usually see a quick recovery. When it's a real bear market you don't see so many sudden drops. You see it dribble away over a period of months with many reversals and false starts. Only when prices hit bottom do you see everyone give up and run for the exits.
Generally speaking, markets go down much faster than they go up. Fear is a lot stronger emotion than hope. When they go up quickly, greed is rampant and it's time to be fearful.
"stocks are up. That equals a recovery for the Fed."
Not quite. The Fed is very clear that there is no real recovery. Evidence:
They're not talking about "exit strategy" any more. Exit means selling the paper that quadrupled the monetary base since 2008. Who's gonna buy that steaming pile?
They're no longer talking about ending QE purchases. As soon as they do, the stock market goes into crash mode and bond prices fall.
They're now pulling back from even "tapering off". Instead, they're blaming the lack of recovery on the tiny "sequester": "Fiscal policy is holding the economy back."
The Fed is out of bullets, out of ideas and out of can-kicking road. They're reduced to telling Congress "Borrow more and spend more. The Fed can't do it alone."
The Fed can't do it AT ALL. Both Kevin Warsh and Richard Fisher admitted "The Fed doesn't have the tools to affect real employment."
and... and.... you are saying something new?
At least put some (.)(.) in the article.