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Is It Game Over For Japan
Japan should serve as a lesson to central planners around the world.
Japan’s stock market/ real estate bubble burst in the early ‘90s. Since that time Japan has launched NINE QE efforts equal to roughly 25% of its GDP. And GDP growth has worsened despite these efforts from 2% to 1%. Ditto for employment.
Japan elected a new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in September 2012. Since that time, his primary belief has been that Japan hasn’t engaged in enough stimulus. He threatened the Bank of Japan to get working… and it did, announcing a $1.4 trillion stimulus last month.
Since that time, the Yen has positively imploded. It broke below 100 yesterday for the first time in years. It’s now fast approaching the long-term trend line. When we take this out, it’s GAME OVER for the great monetary experiment of Japan.
Japan has a Debt to GDP of over 200%. Japan’s demographics are terrible (the country sells more adult diapers than child diapers). Its economy has been imploding for 20 years, and now its truly epic bond bubble is on the verge of collapse as well.
If you thought Greece was bad for the financial system, wait until you see what Japan will do to it.
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Best Regards,
Graham Summers
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Well when it does blow all this "preparation" talk is all fine and dandy but it's imo that being ready will account for an app. 25% chance of survival with the remaining 75% PURE LUCK. And truthfully when it's all said and done I think those would be lofty estimates. And that's all contigent on what the US gov't does. We may need to go get all those Chinese terrorists or some crazy ass crap. The gov't will try to survive at all costs and just make our survival plans that much harder.
When they can no longer control interest rates, it will be over for Japan, the Fed, and the Euro.
That smoke in the air is fiat burning.
I remember the Japanese were all over the USA buying eveyr piece of land in sight -- apartment complexes, hotels, etc----then suddenly they weren't. They even bought a 50 acre section of raw land I had....they paid double for it....then everything collapsed there and here. That land fell 60%....land in Japan itslef also plunged.
Odd how now I see Chinese all over buying stuff for 3x-4x what locals paid for it......
Stuff happens. Some call it history, some call it market forces.
Some say 'this tiome will be different.'
I donno.
Why do idiots like this guy keep believing the QE-to-help-the-economy lie? It's to loot the economy and give it all to bankers. Ok, government too.
If QE means game over for Japan, it means game over for America too, just a bit further down the road.
Some people appoint Bank Trust Departments as Executors and have no idea how little of the Estate will be left. Others appoint lawyers to "assist" their surviving spouse who is left bound and gagged by legal gangsterism and expensive Latin lessons. In the case of governments they end up handing over power to Bankers and Lawyers because they think that is what God ordained on the Seventh Day rather than being a total abdication of responsibility.
The Bankers are Liquidators
Don't worry, Japan will develop nukes, Abe turn Japan into a military dictatorship and the US will back them up... so everyone will be ready for WW3 against China.
But.....but.... Uncle Sugar said everything was going to be OK.
The USA public is rotten to the core. 60% get a check from the government, think cops, FBI, DOD, and welfare queens.
Well its about the PEOPLE.
I would put more trust in the samurai, than the fucking ameriKKKan people.
If there is a country going down an hard, its the USA.
Like anything, company's, or nations. Its the PEOPLE.
The Japan people are still 100% real, hard-working, and clever.
The USA public is rotten to the core.
Japan is just fine, after 30 years of stagnation, but the USA would go 'civil war', after just a few years of such hardship, or more likely go cannibalism.
On so many levels there is NO compare, ... but the USA is 100% OPHRA, .. in Japan, its about family, and love of culture, ...
Japan will be just fine, it will return to the Samurai culture of the past, post peak oil, ... its the USA that without any sense of humanity that has no where to go, I have long predicted that the USA will become a large whore-house, the entire USA will become like Las-Vegas, where Asian tourists flock to the USA to fuck white-girls with big-tits, ...or preferrable, young as they have a passion for such.
Essentially the USA has NOTHING else to offer the world than prostitution.
Compare the aftermath of Katrina in New Orleans with the aftermatch of the March 2011 tsunami in Japan. I don't recall entire sports areans in Japan filled with dirty lowlife "refugees" turning them into disgusting garbage dumps. Look at photos of Myagi Prefecture 2 months after, roads all cleared, cleanup well underway, while portions of New Orleans stll look like war zones.
New Orleans just had a hurricane. Myagi Prefecture had a 25' wall of water go thru, 50 times more damage.
Yes, eastern cultures will survive rough times far better than America.
I remember when Japan was going to, "own all of America." Now they say it will be China. But China will fade, just like Japan. What's interesting is that the problems in Japan, the USA, and China have a common denominator: baby booms followed by senior booms and baby busts. The problem has been made worse by medical advances that mean people are living much longer. There are many other factors at work, including poor governance, but the demo thing is common to all.
Japan's baby boom started almost a decade before ours, so they will start coming out of that particular problem soon. Their financial crisis will come and go and Japan will be back.
The USA's demographic lineup swings back toward positive by 2022, and will have positive effects by 2025. It will be a drag on the economy until then no matter the policy.
China is following us down the senior boom path, but later. The USA is in the sweet spot (relative term, don't get excited), Japan will help pull us forward, and China will continue to have a large nominal number of middle class consumers.
I left Europe out on purpose, as its suicidal immigration policies have skewed its demographics, though to very bad effect.
mortal is correct. The same shit is being said about China as was said about Japan. Of course you forget that China is so unbelievably corrupt it makes JPM & Goldman look like angels. No, the Chinese will NEVER be the main player. Only fools who think they are monolithic believe that. Free clue: they aren't. That is why there are communist and violently oppressive. They are like the Balkans, and in a worse hood to boot.
China will suffer what all emerging markets before have suffered: believing their own hype of invincibility.
And BTW, what economic laws won't do, Mother Nature will. China is a big Chernobyl.
common denominator: baby booms followed by senior booms and baby busts.
Nope. In the u.s. you have the boomers, then a nearly level population for a long time. And the boomers have been and still are driving the consumption truck, just buying different stuff now. Whose 401ks are they that Obatshit and Bernookie are planning to steal? (I decided about 20 years ago that "retirement plans" were a bad idea... and I was right.)
And we're finally getting rid of the FDR entitlement generation, but the morons are replacing them with the teen mother "gimmee my omama fone mf-er!" entitlement gen.
I'm a boomer and plan to support myself until I die... and we are now helping the kids try to get out of debt. (individual results may vary...)
I just hope it all collapses... it's the only road that will lead to true growth.
No shit, I just wish for those who deserve it to receive the shock of a lifetime. People are living in fucking LA-LA land, especially out here in Southern California where I grew up.
I was born at absolute ground zero for narcissistic psychopathic behavior-Los Angeles. It has been a true test of my heart, soul, and will just to keep my head together out here.... ESPECIALLY being one of the few that has half a clue as to what is going on, and how it will most likely play out.
To tell you the truth, I am doubtful that I would survive a SHTF situation where I live. I have a small support network of close friends I grew up with who are semi aware of a collapse scenario but my family are clueless and they don't want to hear anything about this kinda stuff. I am hopeful that when the smoke clears, there will be a handful of people left that can put this train back on the right course.
The yen will take a giant lunge down,(strength vs usd) when it starts. Then it will blow off top!
Japan is an export economy, with a huge savings rate. (outflows><inflows larger) Exporters<
I remember being in Japan in the early '70s....365 yen to the dollar.
Last time I was there was '72 - Y:$ was close to 100:1
First time I was there was '70 - 'bout the same.
From 1949-1971,yen fixed at 360/1 USD
and Gold was $35/oz?
Was there in summer of 1990, it was around 150:1 then
Only what is going to hit the American people is going to be worse than what is going to happen to the Japanese.
They are rich, numbers on a computer screen wise, but ALL of it has been "borrowed" by those in the Japanese government the past 23 or so years. When things go nipples up, the Japanese will be left with nothing as their savings evaporate and foreign markets disappear and the price of energy shoots to the moon.
They will end up a "protectorate" of the Chinese who are still pissed about WWII.
Next up will Berstank juggling the Japanese implosion while having all ten fingers, some toes and his dick in the dike.
Now that would be a reality show of interest. hujel
They r printing money to buy us treasuries......... cuz if they don't can u say H.A.A.R.P
"Its economy has been imploding for 20 years"
really?
This is where the GDP-reality disconnect comes into play. For anyone who has lived in Japan for any significant period of time in the last 20 years, we know that living in an "imploding" Japanese economy is still 10,000x better than living in 95% of the rest of the world.
According to the New York Times, however, toilets like South Africa and India are oases of unbridled economic growth and young vibrant populations. Just ignore the mini-genocides, gang rapes, and toxic food and drinking water and you'll be happy as a clam there.
That was my point.
re They:
India, the great outdoor toilet
There was a post here some time ago, the gist of was that things have actually been pretty good for the average Japanese person, due to the "horrible" deflation reducing their cost of living over the last 20 years. Could you give a little more detail about how things actually are there for the average person?
Shut the fuck up Graham, it has been "over" fo Japan for thirty fucking years you stupid fuck. Sell your Japanese stocks and book the fucking profit. Fucking shill.
I don't think the US will allow it to happen, but you never know.
Ha, they will put on the Buck Rogers suites and rescue the sushifreakz by napping up every playstation and Wii there is