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Philippines Waiting in the Wings
Isn’t it always the way when you go to your some kid’s party that’s a friend of your son‘s and you watch the magician? The kids are in awe over pulling some stupid flower out from behind an ear and you sit back and think that they’re young and naïve. You can see how the magician does it. He diverts their attention!
At the moment, it seems like the US is that naïve kid sitting in front of the Chinese magician watching China pull economic growth out from behind their ears and rabbits to chase after (that disappear down holes usually). But while their attention is focused on the Chinese magician, they are missing the assistant! She’s doing far more than they could ever imagine. And, nobody is taking the blindest bit of notice. The Philippines! You’d better watch out! She’s behind you!
The Philippines is the up-and-coming star of Southeast Asia that absolutely nobody, least of all the US, is worrying about. But, hasn’t that been the problem of the US all along? Thinking that they are top of the roost and that they will stay there, just because! The Philippines has been growing faster than China, quietly, down there in the bottom right hand corner all on her own. Gently, gently.
The Philippines is not like Thailand and not like Malaysia. Ferdinand has gone, long gone. The Philippines may still have progress to make (notably in terms of freedom of the press, as it ranks 147 out of 178 countries in the world this year), but it’s a parliamentary democracy. That’s a big difference with China already. Its economy is booming. It grew by nearly 8% (7.8% exactly and that’s 0.1% over China’s) in the first quarter of this year compared with last year’s growth figure! That’s way over the expectation of 6% that had been previously forecast. 2012 saw an increase of 6.6%. Their aim is to reach 8.5% before President Benigno Aquino steps down from office (2016). He may be getting there! Interest rates are low at 3.5% and inflation stands at between 3% and 5%.
The Philippines has increased private consumption and government spending. They are spending while we are cutting back. Or rather, while we are spending what we don’t actually have, just by printing more. God Save Quantitative Easing! Capital formation took a huge leap of 47.7% in the first quarter 2013 as a result of that heavy expansion of domestic consumption. Unemployment still stands high at 7.1%, but that’s probably good news as they will be able to use those unemployed people to expand further in the growing economic climate. Although, they have a fast-expanding population adding 1 million a year on to the 97-million population, which may be a cause for worry.
In March, Fitch Ratings increased their credit rating, while others are losing theirs. The country has been moved from BB to BBB. The only way is up! They have reached investment grade! What’s more, they are little affected by the global economic climate and slowdown at the moment. At least, the impact is minimal on manufacturing in the Philippines, which showed a growth of 9.7% in the first quarter (household appliances, chemicals, communication, transport).
So, the US and the rest of the world, you had better watch out. It’s not a pantomime production for kids, this is real life. You can’t scream she’s behind you this time, turn round and hold your arms out and catch her. It doesn’t work like that except at Christmas for the kids.
The Philippines will be there and China will be there too. We’ll be the ones standing behind them…very soon. And, while we’re watching China, we are forgetting about the assistant waiting in the wings, ready to jump on the stage and take up her rightful position as an economic power that we hadn’t even seen coming into play. It’s that which will hit us all the harder in the future: not being able to see who’s in the wings, because we’re blinded by the Chinese and focusing on just one thing.
Originally posted http://www.tothetick.com/philippines
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Since a few years Philippine Central bank is buying all the gold mined in the country and keeps it in their vaults. There biggest trading partner is China - the US is just disturbing the good relations with China. But the US sees the Philippines still as a US territory. Especially the South going to Borneo, the Island of Basilan etc. hosting the strategic rubber plantations of the US. Plus in this area there is still a lot of untouched commodities in the Sulu sea a pot of gold and oil. Poor Philippines still under full US control
Helps when you don't have a lot of debt.......
"The country has been moved from BB to BBB. The only way is up! They have reached investment grade!"
The new normal; when BB is considered "safe"......
Fuck YOU all you God Damn Motherfucking wanking banker-cunts reading this - the whole lot of you; from the foot-soldiers to the boards of all your filthy, lying lairs.
May you rot in hell.
B.B,
Tell us what you really think!
Philippines???
Economic powerhouse?
ha ha ha ha ha....
It's a basket case!
I love going there for holidays and hope it never changes.
"It's a basket case!"
Perhaps as viewed by the perpetual-growth-pushers. I'd like to think of it more as a "mixed bag," in a diversified way.
Look around the world at the growing economies. They have one thing in common: about 0.1% of the paperwork, rules, and regulations of the United States. We're drowning in job killing, government mandated BS. Ask any small business owner. It's like government is your enemy. Hundreds of hours and thousands spent every year complying with nonsense. Every day someone comes by you business to tell you aren't complying with ADA, EPA, OSHA, ERR, or some other acronym.
Look closer and you'll see that the DRIVER is a younger (eager) (potential) workforce. Low-hanging-fruit. It's easy to make bigger profits early on when there's more to exploit (not having to pay for the costs of maintaining an advanced/aging infrastructure or an aging population).
NOTE: I'm NOT saying that "paperwork" and regulations don't have an impact. I'm just saying that this is an over-simplified excuse/reason, one that is often pushed by the big corporations and business tycoons (who will tear through some country, leaving it in waste, and then head on to exploit another-).
Wouldn't it be nice if we had a government that tried to help companies comply with regulations instead of being punitive?
No! It would be nice if the government would fuck off, and die. If my business is not committing fraud, or engaged in criminal activity, then it should be left alone.
Who is this "we" you are referring to?
You are in France, a large part of your website is in Latin and you seem to think an American would say something like: God save quantitative easing.
Your use of pronouns is also tellingly mixed up. One minute it's we then its you then it's them, then it's us.
Putting that aside, you obviously have no idea what is driving the ASEAN economies right now other that trickles through Reuters and your assertion that the US stands to be potentially eclipsed by the Phillipines in the same manner as China is patently absurd.
I've sponsored a couple of charitable loans there through http://www.kiva.org/ . They're low dollar amounts for basic necessities and so far are being paid back on schedule. I am hoping the country grows for the sake of hard working families such as those found in the Kiva program.
"I am hoping the country grows"
Grows? How much?
Growth, in our vernacular, is ALWAYS about continued growth, which is EXPONENTIAL growth, which is IMPOSSIBLE on a finite planet.
The Philippines is already WAY over-populated and dependent on the rest of the world (remittances). MOAR growth is only going to make the collapse that much worse!
I GET IT, I understand your compassion, but sometimes one has to measure the implications of all that they would do.
"Freedom of the Press" ?
What a crock of BS.
There is only one press, and their ain't no freedom in it.
In the US we have freedom of the press - freedom of the printing press, that is.
You say the US is distracted by China and ignoring the PI? Nonsense! The reason the PI is booming is because the yanks are back in town. I lived there for ten years and it was like living in a time capsule; the world revolved and nothing changed; Hot and dry, hot and wet.
From the moment the bases closed the PI was sidelined by the US s punishment; Vietnam Hoorah, Malaysia Hoorah, Singapore etc etc etc.
Now the troops are back with forward supply bases in Subic and Clarke, the little brown cousins are back in the loop. The economy is booming because of the payback the military is giving.
You also highlight the democracy. Are you kidding? There really is not a country in the world hat has a “democracy” as fucked up as the PI. Seriously, I love the way the country works, nothing wrong with corruption, as long as it is equal to all that have the means. But “Trapos” (read War Lords) still run the country, still divvy up the seats and when term limits are reached cousins swap mayor ship for uncles senate seat.
The PI really is the closest anybody has come to a true, almost functioning, anarchic society. Bless em, the best LBFM’s are the best; regardless of what Marc Faber has to say ;)
Not sure about the total impact of the US military spending there, but you clearly understand things there.
"The PI really is the closest anybody has come to a true, almost functioning, anarchic society."
Yup. It's quite apparent when you watch traffic. Traffic rules? Traffic lights? Ha! So many people that they violate all of this (well, in downtown Manila people are a bit more observant), they HAVE to; if everyone obeyed the laws and lights things would back up and everything would stop. You don't find people casually strolling across the roadway as though they own it (expecting all motoring traffic to stop).
"But “Trapos” (read War Lords) still run the country, still divvy up the seats and when term limits are reached cousins swap mayor ship for uncles senate seat."
And, really, like it's any different in the US! (ha ha) My wife would tell me how corrupt it is there; I'd tell her that it's FAR more corrupt in the US- where's there's more $$ there's MORE corruption; in the US they are just FAR more polished at it, making it look like it's legitimate: we (US) pay "representatives" to do the bidding on the corruption so we don't have to spend our time doing it.
For stuff that matters (not what the West wants) Filipinos are able to get the job done.
P.S. I don't view people as "things." I always wanted to avoid places where whites would go as I detested the sight of old white men strolling around with young Filipinas. For folks in the US try imagining what it would be like to see a bunch of (wealthy) old Chinese men strolling around the streets and malls (ugh) in the US with young "US" girls.
Yeah, it was always pretty sad to see fat old guys wandering around with tiny young things. But strangely, for a Filipina that is a dream come true, and quite honestly, I really font think it is always a sexual thing.
A lot of the old retirees just want to somebody to look after and the girls want too somebody to look after them.
Mac Arthur described them as trying to govern a nation of 12 year olds, even when they hit 50, many could still pass for teenagers. The Bastards just do not age!
That Mac Arthur quote refers to Japan not the P.I.
'The reason the PI is booming is because the yanks are back in town.'
Philippines GDP is $225 billion. How much do you think the U.S. is spending there?
If it's a billion, it would be 0.44% of GDP ... a minor part of 8% overall growth.
It is not so much direct military spending, but as far as the outside world was concerned the Philippines did not register on the radar. I just find it highly coincidental that as soon as the troops are back, even though it just a few hundred, suddenly the Philippines is even reaching the likes of Zerohedge, amongst others, and the economy is booming.
I am not saying g there was some kind of conspiracy to keep the economy down, I am just saying that without their presence, few had any reason to entertain the Filipinos.
The amusement park is still there. And the LBFM thrill rides are still reasonably priced.
i was born there and am part filipino. this is honestly mind boggling. their english speaking ability is a huge asset i'd figure. all those call centers , etc and all the remitted money from workers in other asian countries must help domestically a ton. not to mention all the americans dropping coin on sex tours.
Remittances makes up 10% of their GDP. As the rest of the world continues to contract that number will shrink (well, the Total will shrink, not sure about "percentage").
I love Filipinos, I married one. To disagree with this article isn't to slam Filipinos, it's to disagree that the Country has any real ability to increase its growth. This is a small "island" nation, as such there are some pretty clear limitations. Wouldn't surprise me that this is just another propaganda piece aimed at bringing in help (or garnering world-wide support govt policy) to displace the Muslims in the south so that growth resources can be exploited.
+LBFM!
Why oh why did I have to google LBFM?
Now, me so horny!
Any suggestions for a good hotel in Manila?
Clark Air Base, mid 1980's. Awesome. It was an adult amuzement park with an Air Force Base attached...