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Why Those Hoping For More QE Now Are In For a Rough Surprise
Yesterday was another day of bad economic data with the ISM report showing the worst employment figure since September 2009.
The bulls believe that bad economic data means more QE. The problem with this is that they’re ignoring the fact that this current spat of bad data is coming out while QE 3 and QE 4 are occurring.
At any other time in the last four years, bad news could open the door to more QE as every QE plan had a fixed timeline in place. So there was always the possibility of more QE coming if economic data worsened once a particular program came to an end.
However, today the Fed is already running two QE programs that are correctively pumping $85+ billion into the system per month. So the fact that bad economic data is coming out now indicates QE is losing is effect.
This does NOT open the door to more QE now. If the Fed tapers QE in the future then yes, it might engage in more QE later down the road. But the idea that the Fed will increase QE when it’s already running $85 billion a month is misguided.
Copper, the commodity with a PhD in economics, gets this. Stocks do not.
Guess which asset class is in for a surprise in the coming months?
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Best Regards
Graham Summers
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It is all smoke and mirrors and the music will stop. We, the USA, live in an unsustainable mirage. I read a while back, maybe here on ZH about 2 refueling ships comissioned for construction by the Navy back in early ninties. Price, over 300 million total. In late 90's shipbuilder went bankrupt and anothe builder took over. Long story short, upon completion it was determined the ships were no longer needed and they never had a maiden voyage. They were sold to a UK scrap yard I think for 12 million for scrap. Not even sold to US company for scrap. Gov't waste???? This is one instance. I recently was campaign manager for a friend who successfully ran for city council. We can only fix this from the ground up, locally. If it is fixable we all need to do something. We can start by cutting all levels of government employee benefits by 35%. If they don't like it let them get a job in the real world and good luck with that. My son-in-law is a streets and san employee and will tell you to your face they work an average 3 to 4 hours per day and those hours no one is breaking a sweat. Close to 85k a year with some snow plowing overtime. Benefits out the wazoo. Same with retirement plan. He had the nerve to complain about only a 2 % raise at Thanksgiving table in a house where I have done straight comission sales gigs of one type or another for over 20 years. We had a very short talk about being paid for producing results until the stares from my daughter began to burn my eyeballs,,,, LOL. Is this thing called America fixable? I will try because I now have 4 grandchildren and what we are doing to them and their future is unforgivable. Let's try.........
5
I guess I should be prepared for my rough surprise, because I got the US in for 20 more years of QE.
I wouldn't walk across the street to fart in Graham Summers' face.
Phoenix was wrong about QE once, they are wrong now. Before QE3, Phoenix was claiming that there will be no QE3.
If they stop QE, the financial system implodes. Not gonna happen, it is QE to infinity.
: "If they stop QE, the financial system implodes."
How?
Interest rates rise. The stock market, and economy collapse. The whole pathetic thing is supported by QE
two QE programs that are correctively pumping $85+ billion
indicates QE is losing is effect.
Back to school. shit for brains
Why the fuck would the fed invite a market collapse?? They wouldn't. They have 2 options:
Stop increasing the geometric increase of money printing and cause an epic economic collapse
OR
Continue increasing the money printing and buy more time and have a bigger economic collapse later
WTF do you think they're going to choose? The big game isn't hard. It's hard to stay solvent in the short term.
>>Why the fuck would the fed invite a market collapse??<<
Easy.
1. They are insiders and they will profit handsomely whipsawing the market.
2. Every credit bubble ends in a bust. They criminally blew the bubble and so they have to be well prepared to "surf" the bust they know is coming.
3. Restricting credit is their way of busting the debtors, asset stripping the collatoral and then buying up assets with trillions in looted cash for pennies on the dollar.
4. TBTF&Jail means their incentive is to wipe their non TBTF&Jail competition off the face of planet Earth.
Look, taxes are going up, the stage is being set higher bank capital requirements, ie, fewer loans, interest rates are spiking as the organic growth (GDP - debt) is collapsing...
3rd chart down shows organic growth cratering...
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?singlepost=3216019
Chit is gettin' real folks and Charlie Munger has already told the little people to shut up and cope because a bailout for the little people would mean Hitler.
BTW, the central banks are forcing rates higher by selling American debt... they want rates to rise because they need to create the excuse to stop QE and force the collapse that will bust those whom they have declared Art of War on.
http://www.dailypaul.com/290836/central-banks-sell-record-sums-of-us-debt
The bust is every bit as important as the bubble. They don't want wothless paper, they want your home, your farm, your company, your water company, your roads, your state park, your servitude and eventually your soul.
These people are playing for world control through inextinguishable debt.
You nailed it.
The FED will do whatever makes the banks more money.
If it means crashing the markets to skim more of Mom and Pop's money a-la' 2008 they will do it.
If it means QE4 or 5 or 6 or whatever to keep the fantasy going - the debt be damned - they will do it as long as it benefits the banksters.
The banks are chess pieces. The OWNERS and CONTROLLERS of the banks and central banks are the chess masters.
It isn't about money, either. Money is a means to an end.
They want to claim ownership of all that is real, not just the finance system. They want control over you and yours.
Read Machiavelli's The Prince because our bankster opponents surely have studied it many times as they are applying updated versions of Machiavelli's principles to conquer America in a The Prince meets Art of War kind of way.
Suez Canal QE5
Greece Redux QE6
Spain QE7
China/Japan QE8
Korea currency war QE9
JPM/Douchebank whale II QE10
any questions?
I look at it more like this:
JPM QE5
BofA QE6
MS QE7
GS QE8
RBS QE10
...
BOHICA 5
BOHICA 6
BOHICA 7
BOHICA 8
BOHICA 9
BOHICA 10
Idiot. Wrong about QE 3 and wrong about QE to infinity.
I'm not here.
This bozo predicted the same thing before the last QE.
Useful contrary indicator.
is this an advertisement?
Bingo. All this time I'm baffled by why Tylers continue to post these idiots....obviously ad revenue. Bummer
Phoneix Capital set no how no way would there ever be QE3, just before QE3 was announced. Now they say QE3 will end. P.C. is in competition with Stopler and John Nadler as the best contrarian indicator
Yes, it is.
QE is for the banks, Graham not the economy. It can't "lose it's effect" on the economy since it never had one.
QE is too effect economy, is to diminish purchasing power as money in soft asset class is gravitate to hard asset.
fraudulent induction. money creation, credit.
q.e.. debt.
surprise?
think.
what do these terms mean?
what do they mean to ....
people?
what is a people?
..
no one even knows
Recovery Summer 4 is here!
Weekend at Bernanke's
starring outdated failed economic policies of yesteryear.
I guess he didn't see the notes from the last FOMC meeting and Bernanke's Q&A session: "The Fed is open to expanding the program if necessary".
Note to Graham: The Fed can do almost anything they want, including piling more QE on top of current QE. I said "almost" because the one thing the Fed can't do is EXIT QE. Exit = Armageddon for the Fed, the US economy, the TBTF banks and the Bernanke Peso.
Zombie Apocalypse is follow in near future, led by Merkel.
Is there any content in this?
Copper. Blah blah blah. Taper. Hand waving..... No.
Before extract vein of copper ore, first is to check for voltage off ground.
Just like the Bernanke couldn't continue qe before the election.......oh wait, he did, and you were wrong
So Bernake is a psychopath -who could have predicted Joe Stalin would kill 20 million of his own people before Hitler invaded. The wisdom of hindsight is 20-20-That doesn't mean you're a genius.
Hmmm... wonder what the fed will do... Taper or stop QE and crash the global stock markets...
OR... print even more, with a larger QE announcement and get rich with the banks.....
Such a tough choice... The Fed and global central banks have NO choice but to print and debase currency.
QE is not stimulus for economy, even if is give Bankster extremely hard on. If persist more than 24 hours, call your broker.
Look, folks. This is not economics. Or finances. Or politics. Or foriegn policy. Or mathematics.
It's arithmatic. (You know ... that stuff that any reasonably intelligent third-grader can do?)
300+ million people in the United States, many of them legal citizens, but that seems to be a distinction without a difference nowadays ("everyone's a winner, etc.").
There are 115 million with 'jobs'.
30 million of those jobs are people who work for .GUV. (And are *lavishly* compensated. [average pay, state of california: $70k plus benis (another $40k?); fed.guv: $135k plus benis] etc.)
(See where I'm going with this?)
So 85 million are supporting >300 million. I think most on this thread are intelligent enough to recognize that that, alone, is a problem.
But, consider further. Blackwater is a private company. They are 'in' 'the private sector'. Nurses, too, they work for a private company ... some giant healthcare conglomerate. What about the local office supply, and their employees, that sells shit to the county despite the fact that their prices are three times higher than the local Staples? Boeing is a private company, too, isn't it?
Of that 85 million supporting everyone else, how many of that number actually, in reality, work for or depend almost entirely on government largesse, ultimately?
I have no idea, but I'll bet it's a lot. I'm going to pick a number out of my ass, so, please, nobody tell me that I'm wrong. I know that. Let's just brainstorm together.
(See where I'm going with this?)
Okay. So, we've got 60 million (?) people making about $30k a year each. They are expected to support the other 275 million, each and every one of whom, including the welfare recipients (but not the social security retirees who were them 20 years ago), make 2, 3, 4, 5, 10 times as much.
It's arithmatic. Not politics. Not finances or economics.
It's arithmatic.
Gee, I wonder how this is going to turn out? Are there any bright third-graders reading my stupid post?
Edit: Oh, wait. I had a point in posting this here: How the fuck are they gonna turn off the money printing that allows 60 million poorly paid slobs to support 275 million of their betters? Hm?
Dear ZHer!
Why is ZHer to give Mr. Mouse Potato down arrow!? Because misspell "arithmetic"!? Or is not like reality of Mr. Mouse Potato arithmetic function!? Let all ZHer give Mr. Mouse Potato ? +100!
Regards,
Anonymouse
(see what Boris is do with ironic word pun!? But serious, let us to give more ?!)