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This Has Never Happened Before

Phoenix Capital Research's picture




 

 

The economic recovery hit another record yesterday.

 

We’ve already had an incredible record setting streak for food stamp usage. Now we can add high unemployment to the mix. The US economy just posted its 54th straight month at which unemployment was north of 7.5%.

 

This has never happened before. And the worst part is that unemployment is in fact much worse than this indicates. Indeed, the Feds implement multiple gimmicks to maneuver the unemployment number down.  The most nefarious is simply not counting those who haven’t looked for a job recently as unemployed.

 

BOOM! Suddenly a lot of the people who are in fact unemployed don’t count and the unemployment rate drops. After all, one cannot help but wonder how one in five US households is on food stamps, while unemployment is down near 7.5%.

 

A much better measure of unemployment is U6 unemployment, which measures those unemployed plus those who are unemployed and have looked for work in the last 12 months and those who are working part-time for economic reasons.

 

When you use this measurement, the unemployment rate is closer to 14.3%.

 

 

Against this backdrop of weak employment analysts continue to believe that the US economy will pick up in the second half of 2013. This is absolutely impossible. Weak employment means lower incomes. Lower incomes means lower consumer spending. Lower consumer spending means lower economic growth.

 

 

For more market insights, swing by www.gainspainscapital.com

 

Best Regards

 

Graham Summers

 

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Tue, 07/09/2013 - 18:08 | 3735457 Rainman
Rainman's picture

All hail The Bernank !

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 17:33 | 3735366 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Illinois will be "bankrupted" and this will be called a victory and "the whole point of the War on Terror actually." move along.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 17:12 | 3735305 Trampy
Trampy's picture

I understand "herding," "optimism bias," Stockholm Syndrome, and that first stage of grieving is Denial, but is that enough to brainwash ~99% of the population?

Is there some kind of electro-magnetic or pharmaceutical "stupid treatment" being used on us?  

Why is it that Amerikans are so stupid that hardly any of them realize that we're living in a Fascist police state?

I've been doing what I can to educate those around me, most recently by going out with a pair of handcuffs dangling from one wrist in "celebration" of "Independence Day." 

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 22:16 | 3736114 Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

"we're living in a Fascist police state"  I have been saying that for years but mostly deaf ears.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 18:55 | 3735552 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

Trampy - - - Americans have been dumbed down by the public 'schools' in a planned manner going  back a century. They very well may be under various kinds of chemical attacks -- given the food, 'medicine', and overall environment that they are subjected to. (Skeptics will have to do their own research.)

Many Americans have absolutely No Freakin' Clue why they got the 4th of July off a few days ago. Too many generations of people were focused on chasing the material 'American Dream', while their children and grandchildren were propagandized. They didnt seem to notice as long as they had a big house, a couple cars, and were living 'the good life.'  They don't know what 'Indpendendence' is . . . . and such a people (according to Thomas Jefferson) . . can never remain free.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRkFDcX_72c

 

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 00:52 | 3736516 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Public schools is a easy target.  Are you also saying that one does not learn anything of substance after attending public schools???  Stop letting people off with such a trite excuse....  People are dumb because they like being dumb.  Asking why they choose being dumb is better than blaming schools that people attend before they are even adults....

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 00:38 | 3736499 Zosynspiracy
Zosynspiracy's picture

Yes I gotta say 4th fo July has become like every other American holiday upon which the original meaning is completely lost on people.  I mean I didn't hear ANYONE I know neighbors, family, wife, coworkers mention one f'ing thing about freedom, the revolution, Constitution, Founding Fathers, etc.  It was all about fireworks and the 4 day weekend and whatever f'ing douchebag professional sports team was making the news. 

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 18:08 | 3735265 involuntarilybirthed
involuntarilybirthed's picture

7.5 + unemployment and the additional 20M on food stamps are a solid 3 year old, old news.  The tail just gets heavier to drag.   The markets are performing in line with that old information and hence low earnings.  Consumers (especially more temp working consumers) are no longer counted on to carry 70% of GDP.  Lucky if it's more like 45-50%, in line with the rest of the data.  Will it get worse, likely.  Is it the peoples fault, no, it's just our society evolving.  Any growth at all is good news at this point.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 16:59 | 3735260 Henry Hub
Henry Hub's picture

Wait just a minute here, I watch CNBC every day and the wonderful talented people on there are assuring everyone that unemployment is getting better every quarter and we are fully on the road to a wonderful recovery. So who are you going to believe, some guy from Phoenix Capital or CNBC? ...Er, never mind.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 00:48 | 3736472 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Doesn't everyone get rides on the Citibank corporate jet?

Oh sorry, we are not worthy....

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 17:04 | 3735282 Spanky
Spanky's picture

-1

For one-eyed-god worship...

...I watch CNBC every day... -- Henry Hub

;>)

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 17:07 | 3735250 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Unemployment is up because corruption is up and it can't be fixed either.....

 

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57592915/global-survey-majority-feel-corruption-has-worsened-think-governments-cant-fix-it/

 

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 22:18 | 3736125 Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

systemic corruption isn't just for breakfast anymore ...

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 23:42 | 3736394 Reci
Reci's picture

or in other words, "Systemic corruption isn't just for third world countries anymore."  Just don't expect to hear the truth from those that benefit from its ongoing continuation like CNBC nor others who serve special interests.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 16:32 | 3735178 robnume
robnume's picture

Say, don't you guys at Phoenix Capital have the annual $60.00 fee to access John Williams incomparable site "Shadow Stats"? Depending on where in the US you live, as well, 14.3 is a low-ball figure, in my opinion. For instance, Caldwell and Catawba counties, in western NC, have 24 to 30% unemployment levels. This is where my retired mom resides. The United Stasi of Amerika is finished, or as my kids would say, GAME OVER!!!

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 23:07 | 3736275 hivekiller
hivekiller's picture

If you count those who have given up looking for a job plus those who haven't worked for a year, the unemployment rate is 23.4% according to Shadow Stats. The rate varies by state. It's highest in Nevada where it's 35.4 percent. In Michigan it's 32.7 percent. In California, it's 30.8 percent. I think it's lowest in N. Dakota where it's about 7 or 8 percent.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 20:43 | 3735794 Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

Food stamps used to be equated with poverty. Now they are equated with fraud. No shortage of illicit use and selling them at a discount for cash. It's rampant.

But primarily, it's rise is due to the Democrats using it as a voting reward system.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 21:42 | 3736023 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Beware of the day they replace food stamps with food coupons redeemable only for Government produced food products...

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 23:19 | 3736327 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

As soon as Monsanto needs a bailout.....

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 02:24 | 3736632 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

Anyone remember the old "Misery Index"?

Inflation rate + Unemplyment rate = Misery Index.

Back in the good/bad old days, anything over 20 was REALLY BAD!

Shadow stats shows the real unemployment rate at a little over 20 and the real inflation rate at a little over 8%

Conservatively, that gives you a "Misery Index" of almost 30!!!!!! Not good.

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